Macroeconomics Workshop 2004

21世紀COEプログラム「市場経済と非市場機構との連関研究拠点」と、日本経済国際共同研究センター（CIRJE）の共催ワークショップ

※ 2005年2月22日現在の予定です。

本年度終了分：

日時	4月15日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Wade Pfau (GRIPS) Toward Intergenerational and Intragenerational Equity in Social Security Reform: An Application of Stochastic Forecasting [PDF]
Abstract	In this paper, I combine traditional hypothetical worker analyses of Social Security with the techniques of stochastic forecasting. The hypothetical workers are born in different years, and they also vary in characteristics of lifetime employment earnings, family status, and ages of death. Rather than using the Social Security Administration's (SSA) deterministic forecasts for economic variables including inflation and wage growth, I develop a series of forecasts using Monte Carlo simulations in order to analyze more realistically the prospects of Social Security reform. Specifically, I compare an increase in the payroll tax, an increase in the normal retirement age, a switch from wage-indexing to price-indexing of benefits, and a reduction in the cost-of-living adjustment. Each reform is accompanied by a change in the payroll tax rate, such that each reform should approximately restore the 75 year actuarial balance of the Trust Fund. From the policy perspective, the normal retirement age increase and price indexing plans perform particularly poorly for most workers born in 1960 and later, as a straightforward tax increase or cost-of-living adjustment provide larger returns. Effort will be made to explain who the winners and losers would be with each reform proposal and also to quantify the differences in outcomes between my stochastic and the SSA's deterministic approach. Stochastic forecasts deserve stronger consideration because they add important details about the underlying probability distribution of the outcome measures.

日時	4月22日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Utpal Bhattacharya (Indiana University/Hitotsubashi University) When No Law is Better Than a Good Law PAPER 1 Forthcoming in Journal of Finance PAPER 2 Published in Journal of Financial Economics, 55 (2000) pp.69-101
Abstract	It is tempting to conclude from the burgeoning law and finance literature that well-functioning security markets need U.S. type security laws. This paper argues, both theoretically and empirically, that, even when one size fits all, this copy-and-paste approach may be dangerous. Sometimes, no law may be better than a good law that is not enforced. The first part of the paper formalizes the conditions under which this happens for any law. The second part of the paper shows that a specific security law ? the law prohibiting insider trading ? satisfies these conditions, which implies that our theory predicts that it is better not to have an insider trading law than to have an insider trading law but not enforce it. The third part of the paper takes this prediction to the data. We revisit the panel data set assembled by Bhattacharya and Daouk (2002), who showed that enforcement, not the mere existence, of insider trading laws reduced the cost of equity in a country. We find that the cost of equity actually rises when a country introduces an insider trading law but does not enforce it.

※ COE Frontier Economics Lecture Series ※ "経済系のゆらぎ(fluctuations)と緩やかな反応(Sluggish Response)現象の新しい解析法"第１回　*Lecture in Japanese*
日時	4月30日（金 Friday） 10:20-12:00 ※ COE/Microworkshopと共催 ※
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第4教室 at the Lecture Hall No.4 (D) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Masanao Aoki 青木正直 (Department of Economics, University of California, Los Angeles) ２者択一問題 (Stochastic Choice Problem)
Abstract	Mcfaddenの確率選択モデル Edgewer boxの確率的扱い Gibbs分布とIngeberの近似 Uncertaintyと政策効果の関係

日時	5月6日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Wako Watanabe (Osaka University) 'Availability of Firms' Information and their Choice of External Credit: Evidence from the Data of Small Firms [PDF]
Abstract	The main purpose of this paper is to present the empirical findings derived from the data of small firms that the availability of private and public information on the borrowing firm leads to diverse borrowing patterns among firms. Exploring logit models to characterize the firm's choice of a financial source, we find that firms whose information is poorly recorded, or who are publicly less recognized, are more likely to choose institutional lending over trade credit but as the recorded information becomes more organized and firms become more transparent, they tend to graduate to a greater use of trade credit.

※ COE Frontier Economics Lecture Series ※ "経済系のゆらぎ(fluctuations)と緩やかな反応(Sluggish Response)現象の新しい解析法"第２回 *Lecture in Japanese*
日時	5月7日（金 Friday） 15:00-16:40 ※ COE/Microworkshopと共催 ※
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Masanao Aoki 青木正直 (Department of Economics, University of California, Los Angeles) 組合せ論的確率過程 (Combinational Stochastic Process) の利用： Exchangeable Random Partitionとしての経済主体の群の扱い
Abstract

日時	5月13日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Toshihiko Mukoyama (Concordia University/COE Fellow, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo) Heterogeneous Costs of Business Cycles with Incomplete Markets (joint with Aysegul Sahin)[PDF]
Abstract	This paper reconsiders the cost of business cycles under market incompleteness. Primarily, we focus on the heterogeneity in the cost among different groups. In addition to the heterogeneity in asset holdings, this paper considers heterogeneity in earnings and unemployment risk. In particular, we focus on skill heterogeneity. Unskilled workers are subject to a much larger risk of unemployment during recessions than are skilled workers. This serves as an additional source of heterogeneity in the cost of business cycles. This effect is reinforced by the fact that unskilled workers earn less, so that they have less resource for precautionary saving.

日時	5月20日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Ippei Fujiwara (Bank of Japan) *Bank of Japan Working Paper Series No. 04-E-3, March 2004: The paper is available at BOJ's Research Papers' site.
Abstract	In this paper, we set out the JEM (Japanese Economic Model), a large macroeconomic model of the Japanese Economy. Although the JEM is a theoretical model designed with a view to overcoming the Lucas (1976) critique of traditional large macroeconomic models, it can also be used for both projection and simulation analysis. This is achieved by embedding a mechanism within which "short-run dynamics," basically captured by a vector autoregression model, eventually converge to a "short-run equilibrium," which is defined using a dynamic general equilibrium-type model.

※ COE Frontier Economics Lecture Series ※ "経済系のゆらぎ(fluctuations)と緩やかな反応(Sluggish Response)現象の新しい解析法"第３回 *Lecture in Japanese*
日時	5月21日（金 Friday） 15:00-16:40 ※ COE/Microworkshopと共催 ※
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Masanao Aoki 青木正直 (Department of Economics, University of California, Los Angeles) エントロピーは系の"Most Probable"な状態を測る資料１資料２
Abstract	Empirical分布とKullback-Leibler Measure 正の相関をもつ主体の群の扱い (Strategic complementarity, Global Game Theoryの欠陥）

日時	5月27日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Yoosoon Chang (Rice University) Taking a New Contour: A Novel Approach to Panel Unit Root Tests (joint with Joon Y. Park) [PDF]
Abstract	The paper introduces a novel approach to statistical inference in the nonstationary panels. The approach takes a new contour on which the nonstationary models yield standard normal asymptotics free of nuisance parameters. The new contour is drawn along the line given by the equi-squared-sum, instead of the traditional one given by the equi-sample-size. Along the new contour, we show that the distributions of commonly used unit root tests are normal in large samples. The normal asymptotics hold under both the null of a unit root and the local-to-unity alternative, and for the IV t-ratio as well as the usual t-ratio. Moreover, they are applicable also for the models with intercept or linear time trend, as long as is used the demeaning or detrending method relying only on the past information. Subsequently, we demonstrate that this startling finding may be exploited to invent tools and methodologies for the effective inferences in nonstationary panel context. In particular, our theory implies that the individual tests may be viewed as asymptotically normal samples if they are computed using the samples which have the same sum of squares across all cross-sectional units. Consequently, we may use various functionals of those individual tests to do valid inferences in nonstationary panels.

日時	6月3日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30 *Presentation in Japanese
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告	鎌田康一郎 Koichiro Kamada (日本銀行 Bank of Japan) Real-Time Estimation of the Output Gap in Japan and its Usefulness for Inflation Forecasting and Policymaking [PDF]
Abstract	This paper examines Bank of Japan methods for the estimation of output gap, especially in the perspective of real time estimation problem. After briefly reviewing the evolution of output gap estimation at the Bank, I discuss advantages and disadvantages of various output gap measures developed so far. First, I examine the usefulness of output gap for inflation forecasting and show that real-time output gap sometimes includes too much noise to improve inflation forecasting. Second, I investigate the implication of real-time estimation problem on the Taylor rule and evaluate the Bank's policy during the asset bubble period of the late 1980s through the early 1990s. Third, I exploit the TANKAN information to enhance the usefulness of real-time output gap in inflation forecasting and policymaking.

※ COE Frontier Economics Lecture Series ※ "経済系のゆらぎ(fluctuations)と緩やかな反応(Sluggish Response)現象の新しい解析法"第４回 *Lecture in Japanese*
日時	6月7日（月 Monday） 15:00-16:40 ※ COE/Microworkshopと共催 ※ *日程と場所の変更がありましたのでご注意下さい。*
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第4教室 at the Lecture Hall No.4 (D) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Masanao Aoki 青木正直 (Department of Economics, University of California, Los Angeles) 群の距離をultrametricsで測る [PDF] * Revised Version posted on June 9
Abstract	樹型経済構造の反応の計算；べき乗(Power Law)モデル；経済系の温度という概念

日時	6月10日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Lee Branstetter (Columbia University / Hitotsubashi University) Do Stronger Intellectual Property Rights Increase International Technology Transfer? Empirical Evidence from U.S. Firm-Level Panel Data [PDF]
Abstract	One of the alleged benefits of the recent global movement to strengthen intellectual property rights (IPR) is that such reforms accelerate transfers of technology between countries. This paper examines how technology transfer among U.S. multinational firms changes in response to a series of IPR reforms undertaken by 12 countries over the 1982-1999 period. Analysis of detailed firm-level data reveals that royalty payments for intangibles transferred to affiliates increase at the time of reforms, as do affiliate R&D expenditures and total levels of foreign patent applications. Increases in royalty payments and R&D expenditures are more than 20% larger among affiliates of parent companies that use U.S. patents more extensively prior to reform and therefore are expected to value IPR reform most.

※ COE Frontier Economics Lecture Series ※ "経済系のゆらぎ(fluctuations)と緩やかな反応(Sluggish Response)現象の新しい解析法"第５回 *Lecture in Japanese*
日時	6月11日（金 Friday） 15:00-16:40 ※ COE/Microworkshopと共催 ※
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Masanao Aoki 青木正直 (Department of Economics, University of California, Los Angeles) 組合せ論的最適化問題とメトロポリスの手法の適用 Lecture Note Reference Paper 1 Reference Paper 2 Reference Paper 3 訂正 CORRECTION
Abstract	Entropic barrierと緩やかな反応速度のモデル

日時	6月17日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Kenji Wada (Keio University/COE Fellow, University of Tokyo) and Toni Braun (University of Tokyo) Demographics and Asset Returns in Japan (with Keiichi Kubota, Musashi University) [PDF]
Abstract	Theory predicts that changes in demographics affect excess returns. This paper investigates whether this prediction from theory is empirically relevant. We construct demographic indicators from long-term Japanese demographic data and measure the predictive content of these indicators in regressions on equity and bond excess return data. We then assess the quantitative significance of the measured predictability by verifying whether trading on these indicators enhances portfolio returns for risk-averse investors. We find that demographics are important predictors of excess returns.

※ COE Frontier Economics Lecture Series ※ "経済系のゆらぎ(fluctuations)と緩やかな反応(Sluggish Response)現象の新しい解析法"第６回 *Lecture in Japanese*
日時	6月18日（金 Friday） 15:00-16:40 ※ COE/Microworkshopと共催 ※
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Masanao Aoki 青木正直 (Department of Economics, University of California, Los Angeles) Schumpeter流の長期産業構造モデルの解析法
Abstract

日時	6月24日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Gregory D. Hess (Claremont McKenna College) The Economic Welfare Cost from Conflict PAPER 1 PAPER 2 PAPER 3
Abstract

※ COE Distinguished Research Seminar Series ※
日時	7月1日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Masao Ogaki (Ohio State University) A Theory of Exchange Rates andthe Term Structure of Interest Rates (joint with Hyoung-Seok Lim) [PDF]
Abstract	The purpose of this paper is to construct a model of exchange rate determination that is consistent with the stylized facts regarding the uncovered interest parity for short-term and long-term interest rates. This task is especially challenging because of the forward premium anomaly found for short-term interest rates and forward exchange rates. With an assumption that investors have a short investment horizon, the model is consistent with these stylized facts even when the degree of risk aversion is low. The model predicts a complicated relationship between exchange rates and the term structure of interest rates.

※ COE Frontier Economics Lecture Series ※
日時	7月6日（火 Tuesday）10:20-12:00, 15:00-16:40
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Christopher A. Sims (Princeton University) Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, Rational Inattention, and Bayesian Econometrics for Policy Modeling Lecture I 10:20-12:00 Lecture II 15:00-16:40 ※応用統計ワークショップと共催 READING LIST FOR TALKS
Abstract

※ COE Distinguished Research Seminar Series ※
日時	7月8日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Edward C. Prescott (Arizona State University) What Equity Premium? PAPER 1 PAPER 2
Abstract

日時	9月9日（木 Thursday） 12:00-13:00 *brownbag seminar
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟12階第1共同研究室 at the Conference Room No.1 (A) on the 12th floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Begona Dominguez (Deapartment of Economics, University of Auckland) Reputation in a Model with a Limited Debt Structure
Abstract	This paper studies the optimal management of the maturity of government debt in an economy without commitment. We consider a reputation where any deviation triggers reversion to the worst sustainable equilibrium. We obtain two results. First, contrary to earlier literature, we show that a very rich debt structure is not a necessary condition to solve the time-inconsistency problem. Second, we learn how to allocate the outstanding debt into short and long-term bonds to enhance the credibility of the government policy.

日時	9月9日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟12階　第3共同研究室 at the Conference Room No.3 (C) on the 12th floor of the New Economics Building
報告	John Fernald (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago) Trend Breaks, Long Run Restrictions, and the Contractionary Effects of Technology Shocks [PDF]
Abstract	Do hours worked rise or fall following a technology improvement? Recent empirical work using structural VARs with long-run restrictions reaches divergent answers, depending on whether hours worked enters the VAR in log-levels or growth rates. In contrast, I find that once one allows for (statistically and economically plausible) trend breaks in labor productivity, it is unimportant whether hours enters the VAR in levels or growth rates: Hours worked falls by a statistically significant amount on impact following a technology improvement. That technology improvements are contractionary on impact is consistent with other work that tries to measure technology shocks more directly using augmented growth accounting techniques. More generally, the paper shows via several simulations with actual and artificial data that impulse responses estimated via long-run restrictions are sensitive to low frequency correlations in the data. This suggests the need for caution in interpreting the results of estimated responses with long-run restrictions, since results may be driven by effects other than those you think you are identifying.

日時	10月7日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Junko Koeda 小枝淳子 (UCLA) Grants or Concessional Loans? Aid to Low-Income Countries with a Participation Constraint [PDF] * Revised Version: December 2004
Abstract	This paper provides a theoretical framework to compare grants with concessional loans to low-income countries (LICs), paying attention to the issues of debt sustainability and aid-dependency. We endogenize debt sustainability by imposing a participation constraint?a constraint that motivates the LIC recipient to adhere to the aid contracts. We concern about aid-dependency because standard growth regressions show that growth rates tend to stagnate around the boundary between low and lower-middle income countries. The key result of the paper is that concessional loans are better than grants, provided that the perverse effects of concessional loans ?over-borrowing and over-spending in the earlier periods due to the low concessional interest rate and the existence of the cutoff (the level of income above which the country loses its eligibility for concessional loans) ?are small enough. When the perverse effects are large enough, the country becomes permanently aid-dependent and stays below the cutoff, depending on the country's TFP level and initial condition.

※ COE Distinguished Research Seminar Series ※
日時	10月8日（金 Friday） 16:50-18:30 ※ Microworkshopと共催
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟12階第3共同研究室 at the Conference Room No.3 (C) on the 12th floor of the New Economics Building
報告	John Riew (Professor Emeritus, Pennslyvania State University) The Role of Education in Globalized Economies: With Focus on Secondary Schools
Abstract	Today's globalized, competitive economy brings forth added urgency and importance to the educational goal of helping young generations develop creative minds and discover and nurture their innate abilities to become more innovative and productive members of the work force. The best results would require policy focus on youths during their more receptive and intensely formative years of adolescence, at the level of secondary schools. In this context, our discussions on school designs cover the following specific issues: 1) Teacher qualifications and the role of the teacher, with related issues of teacher salary (level and structure); 2) School curriculum - (a) the range and level of course offering and (b) a flexible elective system vis-a-vis a largely rigid structured curriculum (relative merits and budget considerations); 3) School size and cost efficiency (urban and rural); 4) School choice (residence-based school assignments and self selection); 5) Admissions criteria ; and 6) Financing schools (division of cost bearing among levels of government). These issues are interrelated. Measures to affect one part of the issues would also impact on other parts.

日時	10月14日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Takuji Kawamoto (Bank of Japan) A Reconsideration of the Q-Theory for Investment: A Robust Euler Equation Approach
Abstract	This paper proposes a new method for empirical implementation of the Q-theory for investment. First, we derive the Q-theory Euler equation by solving a firm's dynamic cost minimization problem under fairly general conditions. In contrast with most of the previous Q studies that rely on the solution of the profit maximization problem, our derivation allows us to ignore completely the firm's behavior in product markets, which may be complex. Hence, our new specification is robust to a large variety of phenomena such as imperfect competition, increasing returns to scale, sticky output prices, and cyclical fluctuations in the markup. Using data on U.S. manufacturing industries, we then find that our specification helps in providing a remedy for the poor empirical performance of the Q-theory. In particular, our estimates of the elasticity of the investment-capital ratio with respect to the marginal Q imply more plausible values of the convergence rate and adjustment half-life compared to previous estimates.

日時	10月21日（木 Thursday） 12:00-13:00 *brownbag seminar
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟12階第1共同研究室 at the Conference Room No.1 (A) on the 12th floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Tomoyuki Nakajima (Kyoto University) Liquidity Trap and Optimal Monetary Policy in Open Economies [PDF]
Abstract	We consider an open-economy model with the Calvo-type sticky prices. We mainly analyze the situation in which the monetary authority in each country cooperates so as to maximize the world welfare. In the case where the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates never binds, the optimal in°ation targeting rule in our open-economy model has exactly the same form as in the closed-economy model. This is not the case, however, when the ZLB may bind. The optimal paths are characterized in such a situation. In contrast with what Svensson (2001, 2003, 2004) suggests, the optimal paths of the nominal exchange rate in our model typically exhibit appreciation of the currency of the country where the ZLB binds.

日時	10月21日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告	John Laitner (University of Michigan/Kansai University) Estimating Life-Cycle Parameters from the Retirement-Consumption Puzzle (with Dan Silverman) [PDF]
Abstract	Using pseudo-panel data, we estimate the structural parameters of a life-cycle consumption model with discrete labor supply choice. A focus of our analysis is the abrupt drop in consumption upon retirement for a typical household. The literature sometimes refers to the drop, which in the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey we estimate to be approximately 14%, as the "retirement-consumption puzzle." Although a downward step in consumption at retirement contradicts predictions from life-cycle models with additively separable consumption and leisure, or with continuous work-hour options, a consumption jump is consistent with a setup having nonseparable preferences over consumption and leisure and requiring discrete work choices. This paper specifies a life-cycle model with these two elements, and uses the empirical magnitude of the drop in consumption at retirement to identify structural parameters --- most importantly, the intertemporal elasticity of substitution. Employing our new estimates, we simulate counterfactual Social Security policy reforms.

日時	10月28日（木 Thursday） 15:00-16:40, 16:50-18:30 *two back to back seminars
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告 1	15:00-16:40 Radim Bohacek (Charles University) Optimal Government Policies in Models with Heterogeneous Agents (with Michal Kejak) [PDF]
Abstract	In this paper we develop a new methodology for finding optimal steady state government policies in economies with heterogeneous agents. The methodology is solely based on three classes of equilibrium conditions from government's and individual agent's optimization problems: 1) the first order conditions; 2) the stationarity condition on the distribution function; and, 3) the aggregate market clearing conditions. These conditions form a system of functional equations which we solve numerically. The solution takes into account simultaneously the effect of the government policy on individual allocations and (from the government's point of view) optimal distribution of agents in the steady state. This general methodology is applicable to a wide range of optimal government policies in models with heterogeneous agents. We illustrate it on a steady state Ramsey problem with heterogeneous agents, finding the optimal tax schedule.
報告 2	16:50-18:30 Marek Kapicka (UC Santa Barbara) Optimal Taxation with Persistent Shocks [PDF]
Abstract	In this paper I study dynamic optimal taxation in a private information economy with continuum of individual productivity shocks that are persistent over time. I formulate the problem recursively and develop a first order approach in the spirit of Mirrlees (1971) to simplify it. The main advantage of the first order approach lies in the fact that it allows us to reduce the state space of the dynamic program dramatically. This allows numerical implementation of the problem. I solve quantitatively for the optimal capital income taxes in a simplified economy with persistent taste shocks. I find that whan the shocks follow random walk, the intertemporal wedge, roughly corresponding to the capital income taxes, is on average about three times lower than in the case of iid shocks.

日時	11月4日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Hiroshi Ohashi (University of Tokyo) Technology Adoption, Learning by Doing, and Productivity: A Study of Steel Refining Furnaces (with Tsuyoshi Nakamura) [PDF]
Abstract	Models of vintage-capital learning by doing predict an initial fall in productivity after the introduction of new technology. This paper examines the impact of new technology on plant-level productivity in the Japanese steel industry in the 1950s and 1960s. The introduction of basic oxygen furnace was the greatest breakthrough in the steel refining process in the last century. The paper estimates production function, taking account of technological difference in refining furnaces owned by plant. Estimation results indicate that a productive plant was likely to adopt the new technology, and that the adoption timing is right after the peak of the productivity level with old technology. The paper finds that the adoption of the new technology primarily accounted not only for the industry productivity slowdown in the early 1960s, but also for miraculous industry growth in the post-war period. These results are robust to endogeneity in the choice of inputs.

※ COE Distinguished Research Seminar Series ※
日時	11月11日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Giorgio Brunello (University of Padova) The Optimal Timing of School Tracking (with Massimo Giannini and Kenn Ariga) [PDF]
Abstract	We develop a simple model which determines the optimal timing of school tracking as teh outcome of the trade off between the advantages of specialization, which call for early tracking, and the costs of early selection, which lead to later tracking. We calibrate the model for Germany and study how relative demand shifts toward more general skills and changes in the (exogenous) rate of technical progress affect the optimal tracking time as well as the efficient allocation of students to general and vocational tracks.

日時	11月18日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Ryuzo Miyao (RIEB, Kobe University) Use of Money Supply in the Conduct of Japan's Monetary Policy: Reexamining the Time Series Evidence [PDF]
Abstract	Japan's money supply and its role in monetary policy have drawn considerable attention especially since the Bank of Japan adopted its "quantitative easing" scheme in March 2001. This paper focuses on the role of money supply as an information variable and reexamines the empirical relationship between money and economic activity with recent data extending through 2003. We show that the linkage between M2+CD and income or prices largely disappeared in the late 1990s and explore possible reasons for this breakdown. The evidence suggests that (i) time deposits lost their predictive content for future economic activity in the late 1990s, which seems a primary reason for the breakdown in the M2-income relationship, (ii) bank loans also became no longer useful in forecasting subsequent movements in output in the late 1990s, and (iii) there has been a close link between time deposits and bank loans throughout the period examined. We argue that Japan's persistent non-performing loans problem and ongoing efforts by firms and banks to trim excessive and inefficient bank loans may have caused the breakdown in hte bank loan-income relationship and accordingly the breakdown in the M2-income relationship by way of time deposits over the last decade.

日時	11月25日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Selo Imrohoroglu (University of Southern California) Japanese Saving Rate (with Kaiji Chen, Ayse Imrohoroglu) [PDF]
Abstract	In this paper, we use two di?erent models to study the time path of the saving rate in Japan between 1961-1998. Our results indicate that both an infinite horizon, complete markets setup and an overlapping generations model with incomplete markets are able to generate saving rates that are remarkably similar to the data during this period. We conduct counterfactual experiments to isolate the impact of several factors such as the social security system, fiscal policy, and total factor productivity growth on saving behavior. Our results identify changes in the growth rate of total factor productivity and the low initial capital stock as the main factors generating the time series behavior of the net national saving rate in Japan. In other words, it seems that there is nothing peculiar about the Japanese saving behavior.

日時	12月2日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Ryuichi Tanaka 田中隆一 (Osaka University) Gender Specialization in Households: an Empirical Analysis of Human Capital Transmission (with Francesc Ortega) [PDF]
Abstract	This paper presents a cohort analysis of the relationship between educational attainment of parents and children and how it is affected by maternal employment. Our specification allows for gender heterogeneity and unobserved ability. We find same-gender specialization, paternal education matters more for sons and maternal education matters more for daughters, for the most recent cohorts. We also find more intense gender specialization in households with working mothers. Our results also suggest increasing same-gender specialization for the cohorts born after 1955, a period of impressive growth in married female employment. More specifically, we find a sharp decline in the effect of maternal education on the attainment of sons, not present on daughters' educational attainment.

※ COE Distinguished Research Seminar Series ※
日時	12月8日（水 Wednesday） 10:20-11:50
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Dale Jorgenson (Harvard University) Information Technology and the G7 Economies [PDF]
Abstract	In this paper I present international comparisons of economic growth among G7 nations. These comparisons focus on the impact of investment in information technology (IT) equipment and software over the period 1980-2001. Using "internationally harmonized" IT prices, I decompose growth of output for each country between growth of input and total factor productivity (TFP). The growth of input, in turn, is divided between investments in tangible assets, especially IT and software, and human capital. The main finding is that total factor productivity played a minor role compared to growth in inputs due to investments in IT equipment and software.

※ COE Distinguished Research Seminar Series ※
日時	12月9日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Dale Jorgenson (Harvard University) Information Technology and the Japanese Growth Recovery ( joint paper with Koji Nomura of Keio University) [PDF]
Abstract

日時	12月16日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Don Schlagenhauf (Florida State University) Accounting for Changes in the Homeownership Rate (with Matthew Chambers and Carlos Garriga) [PDF]
Abstract	After years of being relatively constant, the homeownership rate -a target for housing policy- has increased since 1995. This paper attemps to understand why the homeownership rate has been increasing by constructing a quantitative model and then using this model to evaluate explanations that have been offered to account for this increase. We find that the increase in the homeownership can be explained by innovations in the mortgage market that allws households to take a positive housing investment position with a much smaller downpayment.

日時	1月5日（水 Wednesday） 12:00-13:15 ※ COE Macro Brownbag Lunch Semiar
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟12階第1共同研究室 at the Conference Room No.1 (A) on the 12th floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Sagiri Kitao (New York University) Income Taxation with Uninsurable Investment and Endowment Risks
Abstract

※ COE Frontier Economics Lecture Series ※
日時	1月26日（水 Wednesday）17:30-19:00, (open at 17:00) ※ Microworkshopと共催 (Open to public; Reservation is NOT required)
場所	東京大学・赤門総合研究棟 2階　第6番教室 Room #6, 2nd floor, Akamon-sogo-kenkyutou, University of Tokyo (in front of "Akamon" red gate)
報告	Professor Muhammad Yunus (Managing Director, Grameen Bank) We Can Create a Poverty-Free World
Abstract

※ 2005年1-2月　修士論文報告会 Master's Thesis Presentations ※
発表者の方へ	発表日の前の火曜日の朝10:00AM（厳守）までにセンター研究支援室・富井までファイルを送るかハードコピーをセンター研究支援室（経済学研究科棟７階７０９号室）までご持参下さい。期限内に届いたものについては当日配布用印刷物を用意いたしますが、間に合わない場合は、当日ご自分で１５部ほどコピーをご持参下さい。（締め切り期限は1月13日発表者は1月11日朝10:00amまで、1月20日発表者は1月18日朝10:00amまで、1月27日発表者は1月25日朝10:00amまで、2月3日発表者は2月1日朝10:00amです。）
場所	全日程とも東京大学経済学部新棟3階　第3教室 All of the presentations are at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of New Economics Building.

※ 2005年1-2月　修士論文報告会 Master's Thesis Presentations ※

発表者の方へ

発表日の前の火曜日の朝10:00AM（厳守）までにセンター研究支援室・富井までファイルを送るかハードコピーをセンター研究支援室（経済学研究科棟７階７０９号室）までご持参下さい。期限内に届いたものについては当日配布用印刷物を用意いたしますが、間に合わない場合は、当日ご自分で１５部ほどコピーをご持参下さい。（締め切り期限は1月13日発表者は1月11日朝10:00amまで、1月20日発表者は1月18日朝10:00amまで、1月27日発表者は1月25日朝10:00amまで、2月3日発表者は2月1日朝10:00amです。）

場所

全日程とも東京大学経済学部 新棟3階　第3教室
All of the presentations are at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of New Economics Building.

日時	1月13日（木 Thursday） 15:15-16:45
報告	Masanori Kashiwagi 柏木昌成 (Readers: Kawai, T. Ito) "Exchange Rate Volatility in an Open-Economy with International Currencies"

日時

1月13日（木 Thursday） 15:15-16:45

報告

Masanori Kashiwagi 柏木昌成 (Readers: Kawai, T. Ito)

"Exchange Rate Volatility in an Open-Economy with International Currencies"

日時	1月13日（木 Thursday） 15:45-16:15
報告	Hang Thu Nguyen グェントゥーハン (Readers: Kawai, T. Ito) "An Empirical Study of Exchange Rate Arrangements in East Asia" [PDF]

日時

1月13日（木 Thursday） 15:45-16:15

報告

Hang Thu Nguyen グェントゥーハン (Readers: Kawai, T. Ito)

"An Empirical Study of Exchange Rate Arrangements in East Asia" [PDF]

日時	1月13日（木 Thursday） 16:15-16:45
報告	Natsuki Arai 荒井夏來 (Readers: Kawai, T. Ito) "Estimating Exchange Market Pressure for Asian Countries" [PDF]

日時

1月13日（木 Thursday） 16:15-16:45

報告

Natsuki Arai 荒井夏來 (Readers: Kawai, T. Ito)

"Estimating Exchange Market Pressure for Asian Countries" [PDF]

日時	1月20日（木 Thursday） 16:00-16:40
報告	M. Fujimoto 藤本真智子 (Readers: Braun, Esteban-Pretel) "The Effects of the Unemployment Rate on the Wage Profile" [PDF]

日時

1月20日（木 Thursday） 16:00-16:40

報告

M. Fujimoto 藤本真智子 (Readers: Braun, Esteban-Pretel)

"The Effects of the Unemployment Rate on the Wage Profile" [PDF]

日時	1月20日（木 Thursday） 16:40-17:20
報告	Takeki Sunagawa 砂川武貴 (Readers: Hayashi, Braun) "Inflation under a Monetary Policy Game" [PDF] HANDOUT

日時

1月20日（木 Thursday） 16:40-17:20

報告

Takeki Sunagawa 砂川武貴 (Readers: Hayashi, Braun)

"Inflation under a Monetary Policy Game" [PDF] HANDOUT

日時	1月20日（木 Thursday） 17:20-18:00
報告	Hirokazu Ishise 石瀬寛和 (Readers: Hayashi, Braun) "Does Agriculture Lead the Economy's Growth?: A Quantitative Analysis of Asian Countries after the Green Revolution" [PDF] HANDOUT

日時

1月20日（木 Thursday） 17:20-18:00

報告

Hirokazu Ishise 石瀬寛和 (Readers: Hayashi, Braun)

"Does Agriculture Lead the Economy's Growth?: A Quantitative Analysis of Asian Countries after the Green Revolution" [PDF] HANDOUT

日時	1月20日（木 Thursday） 18:00-18:40
報告	Yu-ichiro Waki 脇雄一郎 (Readers: Braun, Hayashi) "Does Eggertsson-Woodford Hypothesis Explain Japan's 'Liquidity Trap'?"

日時

1月20日（木 Thursday） 18:00-18:40

報告

Yu-ichiro Waki 脇雄一郎 (Readers: Braun, Hayashi)

"Does Eggertsson-Woodford Hypothesis Explain Japan's 'Liquidity Trap'?"

日時	1月27日（木 Thursday） 16:00-16:40
報告	T. Nagahama 永濱利廣 (Readers: Nishimura, Iwai) "短期労働投入調整の日米比較－マクロ・産業別同時方程式モデル分析からの考察" [PDF]

日時

1月27日（木 Thursday） 16:00-16:40

報告

T. Nagahama 永濱利廣 (Readers: Nishimura, Iwai)

"短期労働投入調整の日米比較－マクロ・産業別同時方程式モデル分析からの考察" [PDF]

日時	1月27日（木 Thursday） 16:40-17:20
報告	Y. Kon 今喜史 (Readers: Fukuda, Hayashi) "開放経済における産業構造と農業生産性の変化" [PDF]

日時

1月27日（木 Thursday） 16:40-17:20

報告

Y. Kon 今喜史 (Readers: Fukuda, Hayashi)

"開放経済における産業構造と農業生産性の変化" [PDF]

日時	1月27日（木 Thursday） 17:20-18:00
報告	Kazuaki Hara 原和明 (Readers: Fukuda, Hayashi) "設備投資に与えるキャッシュフローの影響"

日時

1月27日（木 Thursday） 17:20-18:00

報告

Kazuaki Hara 原和明 (Readers: Fukuda, Hayashi)

"設備投資に与えるキャッシュフローの影響"

日時	1月27日（木 Thursday） 18:00-18:40
報告	Mizue Kuroda 黒田瑞江 (Readers: Fukuda, Braun) "Exchange Rate Passthrough"

日時

1月27日（木 Thursday） 18:00-18:40

報告

Mizue Kuroda 黒田瑞江 (Readers: Fukuda, Braun)

"Exchange Rate Passthrough"

日時	1月27日（木 Thursday） 18:40-19:20
報告	Tanaka 田中寛厚 (Readers: Fukuda, Braun) "An Essay on the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy"

日時

1月27日（木 Thursday） 18:40-19:20

報告

Tanaka 田中寛厚 (Readers: Fukuda, Braun)

"An Essay on the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy"

日時

2月3日（木 Thursday） 16:00-16:40

報告

Masao Sugita 杉田将夫 (Readers: Iwai, Yoshikawa)

"How Beauty Contest has been Organaized" [PDF]

日時

2月3日（木 Thursday） 16:40-17:20

報告

Futoshi Narita 成田太志 (Readers: Yoshikawa, Iwai)

"Multi-sector Stochastic Dynamics and the Phillips Curve" [PDF]

日時

2月3日（木 Thursday） 17:20-18:00

報告

Shimizu 清水理 (Readers: Fukuda, Iwai)

"R&D Model of Economic Growth"

日時

2月3日（木 Thursday） 18:00-18:40

報告

Endou 遠藤業鏡 (Readers: Hayashi, Kanamoto)

"地域別社会資本の経済評価"

日時

2月3日（木 Thursday） 18:40-19:20

報告

K. Fukushima 福島謙一 (Readers: Braun, Hayashi)

Asset Pricing Implications of Precommitted Consumption"

日時	2月10日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟3階第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 (C) on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Juan C. Conesa (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) Optimal Design of Social Security Reforms [PDF]
Abstract	We argue that a privatization of the social security system, going from a Pay-As-You-Go to a Fully Funded system, can be interpreted as the explicit recognition of an implicit debt and there is no efficiency gain in doing so. As a consequence, potential efficiency gains upon reforming the system come from the elimination of distortions and the optimal management of that implicit debt. Based on that argument, this paper studies the optimal design of a social security privatization in a Pareto improving way. The government decides endogenously how to finance the transition and the welfare of the initial generations alive becomes policy constraint. We find that the government can design a Pareto improving reform that exhibits sizeable welfare gains, arising because of a reduction in labor supply distortions. In contrast, the welfare gain from reducing savings distortions is relatively small. Our approach explicitly provides quantitative policy prescriptions towards the policy design of future and maybe unavoidable social security reforms.

日時	2月15日（火 Tuesday） 12:00-13:30 ※ COE Macro Brownbag Lunch Semiar
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟12階第1共同研究室 at the Conference Room No.1 (A) on the 12th floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Marcelo Veracierto (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago) Labor Market Policies in an Equilibrium Search Model [PDF]
Abstract	We explore to what extent differences in employment and unemployment across economies can be generated by differences in labor market policies. We use a version of the Lucas-Prescott equilibrium search model with undirected search and endogenous labor-force participation. Minimum wages, degree of unionization, firing taxes, and unemployment benefits are introduced and their effects analyzed. When the model is calibrated to US observations it reproduces several of the elasticities of employment and unemployment with respect to changes in policies reported in the empirical literature. We find that: i) minimum wages have small effects; ii) firing taxes have similar effects to those found in frictionless general equilibrium models; iii) unions have large and negative effects on employment, unemployment, and welfare; and iv) unemployment benefits substantially increase unemployment and reduce welfare.

日時	2月17日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟新棟12階第1共同研究室 at the Conference Room No.1 (A) on the 12th floor of the New Economics Building
報告	Marcelo Veracierto (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago) Firing Costs and Business Cycle Fluctuations [PDF]
Abstract	This paper considers a real business cycle model with establishment level dynamics and uses it to analyze the effects of firing taxes. It finds that the firing taxes have significant consequences on business cycle fluctuations. The largest effects are on aggregate employment, which becomes less variable and more persistent. Even relatively small firing taxes are found to have substantial effects.