21世紀COEプログラム「市場経済と非市場機構との連関研究拠点」と、日本経済国際共同研究センター（CIRJE）の共催ワークショップ
※ 2006年3月22日現在の予定です。
| 日時 | 2006年3月23日（木 Thursday） 12:00-13:20 *SCHEDULE CHANGED *Macro Brown Bag Seminar |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟12階 第1共同研究室 at the Conference Room No.1 on the 12th floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Michele Boldrin (University of Minnesota) Perfectly Competitive Innovation |
| Abstract | Based partially on the belief that innovation is not possible under perfect competition, many thousands papers have been written about the nature of innovation under monopoly or oligopoly. In fact, competitive rents can and do sustain innovation in the complete absence of monopoly power. However, little is known about the source and significance of these rents. We begin to remedy this imbalance by examining the way in which competitive innovators earn rents both in theory and in practice. |
| 日時 | 2006年3月23日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟3階 第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Michele Boldrin (University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract | This paper investigates the role of endogenous labor-saving technological choice in the generation and propagation of business cycles. We emphasize the importance of endogenously varying relative factor prices as a force behind the introduction of new technologies and the scrapping of existing ones. The interaction between labor-saving innovations and changes in the relative price of labor gives rise to endogenous growth and cycles that match, quail- and quantitatively, ob-served ones. |
２００６年度の予定
| 日時 | 2006年4月13日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30 *金融センターワークショップと共催 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟3階 第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Alicia Garcia Herrero (Bank of Spain) |
| Abstract | We analyze empirically whether trade and financial linkages between two countries increase the synchronization of their business cycles directly or indirectly. In a system of equations, we use a newly processed database on the bilateral linkages of a small open economy, namely Spain. We prefer this to the generally used US data, to avoid other channels of influence of such a large economy affecting the results. We find that both trade or financial linkages only foster synchronization of business cycles indirectly, by increasing the similarity of economic structure between countries, which itself induces more similar output movements. This result suggests that sectoral shocks, rather than intra-industry shocks, have prevailed in the last 15 years. The net effects of both trade and financial linkages on business cycle synchronization are statistically significant, but very small in economic terms. Common macroeconomic policies, instead, are much more important determinants of output co-movements. |
| 日時 | 2006年4月17日（月 Monday） 12:00-13:10 *Macro Brown Bag Seminar |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟12階 第1共同研究室 at the Conference Room No.1 on the 12th floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Satyajit Chaterjee (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia) TBA |
| Abstract |
| 日時 | 2006年4月20日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30 *金融センターワークショップと共催 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟3階 第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Ippei Fujiwara (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract | In this paper, we answer to practically important questions concerning monetary policy implementation: whether the monetary policy scheme needs to be changed as societal aging deepens; and how monetary policy affects heterogeneous agents, namely workers and retirees, unevenly. According to simulation results from the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with nominal rigidity that incorporates lifecycle behavior a la Gertler (1999), monetary policy does not have to be altered significantly as societal ageing deepens. On the distributional aspects of monetary policy, however, we find that the optimal instrument rule for workers is quite different from the one for retires. In an economy where even workers save for their retirement as is the case in Japan, workers prefer more inflation-fighting monetary policy than retirees do and, therefore, the central bank faces policy trade-off between maximizing worker’s and retiree’s welfare. |
| 日時 | 2006年5月18日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟3階 第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Takushi Kurozumi (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract |
| 日時 | 2006年5月25日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟3階 第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Takeshi Kimura (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract |
| 日時 | 2006年5月30日（火 Tuesday） 12:00-13:10 *Macro Brown Bag Seminar、 金融センターワークショップと共催 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟12階 第1共同研究室 at the Conference Room No.1 on the 12th floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Eric Swanson (Federal Reserve Bank of San Fransisco) Optimal Time-Consistent Money Policy and Multiple Equilibria (joint with Gauti B. Eggertsson) |
| Abstract | The original literature on multiple equilibria in time-consistent monetary policy (e.g., Barro-Gordon, 1983) found that mulitiplicity can arise when agents are allowed to follow trigger strategies. More recently, the literature has focused on the much simpler and smaller set of Markov perfect equilibria, in which agents respond only to economic fundamentals, and found that multiplicity can arise in standard New Keyensian models even within this much more restrictive framework. In this paper, we show that this multiplicity is not intrinsic to the New Keynesian model itself, but instead may be primarily driven by an auxiliary timing assumption by previous authors that play is “repeated Stackelberg” ?in which the monetary authority must pre-commit each period to a value for the monetary instrument?as opposed to simultaneous, in which the monetary authority and private sector determine the economic equilibrium simultaneously and jointly each period. We show how to model simultaneous play between the monetary authority and the private sector in a game-theoretic framework, and we argue that the assumption of simultaneous play is more realistic and useful for a number of reasons. We present closed-form solutions for the set of all possible Markov perfect equilibria in the two-period Taylor contracting version of the New Keynesian model under simultaneous play and show that the equilibrium is unique. |
| 日時 | 2006年6月1日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟3階 第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Atsuko Ueda (Waseda University) |
| Abstract |
| 日時 | 2006年6月8日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟3階 第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Ellis Tallman (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta) |
| Abstract |
| 日時 | 2006年6月15日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟3階 第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Toshihiko Mukoyama (Concordia University) |
| Abstract |
本年度終了分：
| 日時 | 4月14日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30 *TIME AND PLACE CHANGED |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 at the LectureHall No.3 on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Yongsung Chang (Seoul National University) Heterogeneity and Aggregation in the Labor Market: Implications for Aggregate Preference Shifts (with Sun-Bin Kim) [PDF] |
| Abstract | The cyclical behavior of hours worked, wages, and consumption does not conform with the predictions of the representative agent model with standard preferences. The residual in the intra-temporal first-order condition for commodity consumption and leisure is often viewed as a failure of labor-market clearing. We demonstrate that a simple heterogeneous-agent economy with incomplete markets and indivisible labor generates an aggregation error that looks very much like the preference residual observed in the aggregate data. Our results caution against viewing the preference residual as a failure of labor-market clearing, or as a fundamental driving force of business cycles. |
| 日時 | 4月15日（金 Friday） 12:00-13:30 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟12階 第1共同研究室 at the Conference Room No.1 on the 12th floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Guillermo A. Calvo (University of Maryland and the Inter-American Development Bank) and Alejandro Izquierdo (The Inter-American Development Bank) |
| 日時 | 5月12日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟3階 第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Jang Ok Cho (Sogang University) Business Cycle Uncertainty and Economic Welfare (with Thomas F. Cooley) [PDF] |
| Abstract | We study the welfare implications of uncertainty in business cycle models. In |
| 日時 | 5月19日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟3階 第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | 竹田憲史 Kenshi Taketa (日本銀行 Bank of Japan) "A Large Speculator in Contagious Currency Crises: A Single "George Soros" Makes Countries More Vulnerable to Crises, but Mitigates Contagion" IMES Discussion Paper 2004-E-23, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, December 2004.[PDF] 及び "Contagion of Currency Crises across Unrelated Countries" IMES Discussion Paper 2004-E-22, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, December 2004.[PDF] |
| 日時 | 5月23日（月 Monday） 15:00-19:00 Mini-Conference |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟3階 第2教室 at the Lecture Hall No.2 on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Richard Rogerson (Arizona State University) Structural Transformation and the Deterioration of European Labor Market Outcomes [PDF] Steve Davis (University of Chicago) The Flow Approach to Labor Markets: New Data Sources, Micro-Macro Links and the Recent Downturn (with Jason Faberman and John Haltiwanger) [PDF] |
| 日時 | 5月26日（木 Tursday） 16:50-18:30 *Microworkshopと共催 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟3階 第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Steve Davis (University of Chicago) Electricity Pricing to U. S. Manufacturing Plants, 1963-2000 (with Cheryl Grim, John Haltiwanger and Mary Streitwieser)[PDF] |
| Abstract | There is tremendous dispersion in the electricity prices paid by manufacturers, as we show, greater than the dispersion in production worker wages. We also document a dramatic compression in the log price distribution between 1967 and 1977, which we trace to a sharp erosion of quantity discounts. Spatial dispersion in average electricity prices among states, counties and utility service territories is also large. The spatial sorting of electricity-intensive manufacturing activity to areas with cheaper electricity is modest, but it increases after 1973, apparently in response to a shift from falling to rising real electricity prices. To estimate the role of cost factors and markups in quantity discounts, we exploit differences among utilities in the purchases distribution of their customers. The estimation results reveal that supply costs per watt-hour fall by more than half over the range of purchases in the data, regardless of time period. Prior to the mid 1970s, marginal price and marginal cost schedules with respect to purchase quantity are nearly identical, remarkably in line with efficient pricing. In later years, marginal supply costs exceed marginal prices for smaller manufacturing customers by 10-20%. The data provide no support for a Ramsey-pricing interpretation of quantity discounts. |
| 日時 | 6月2日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟3階 第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Machiko Fujimoto (University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract | According to the human capital theory, an increase in the unemployment rate lowers the average skill level in the economy, because unemployment prevents workers from accumulating their human capital. In this paper, I analyze the average skill level by age group, in addition to the economy-wide one, by dealing with the macro wage profile. This is worth considering because the macro wage profile represents the average process of the human capital accumulation on the job, under the assumption that the amount of the human capital investments is stationary. This paper shows that, based on the human capital theory, the unemployment rate should be negatively related to the slope of the macro wage profile. To address this claim, I build an OLG model incorporating a search model in which workers accumulate skills when employed and lose them when unemployed. In addition, I apply the model to the Japanese economy in the 1990s as a case study. |
| 日時 | 6月9日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟3階 第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Yuichiro Waki (University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract | We develop a quantitative costly price adjustment model with capital formation for the Japanese Economy. The model respects the zero interest rate bound and is calibrated to reproduce the nominal and real facts from the 1990s. We use the model to investigate the properties of alternative monetary policies during this period. The setting of the long-run nominal interest rate in a Taylor rule is much more important for avoiding the zero bound than the setting of the reaction coefficients. A long-run interest rate target of 2.3 percent during the 1990s avoids the zero bound and enhances welfare. |
| 日時 | 6月23日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30 *金融センターワークショップと共催 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟3階 第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Jeong-Joon Lee (Department of Economics, Towson University) The Adjusted Solow Residual and Asset Returns [PDF] *revised version |
| Abstract | The purpose of this study is to examine effects of a measured aggregate productivity shock on asset returns. To achieve this, a simple equilibrium business cycle model is presented to show that an aggregate productivity shock can be identified as a factor affecting asset returns. Then, Solow's productivity residual is chosen as a proxy for the measured aggregate productivity shock. One valuable contribution of the study is its incorporation of recent macroeconomic developments on variable factor utilizations. In particular, this paper deviates from the conventional growth accounting framework to adjust for cyclical variations of the Solow residual. This study first shows that asset returns tie with capital returns based on the standard business cycle model without adjustment costs, and then empirically evaluates the relationship between the measured aggregate productivity shock and asset returns. Investigations based on post-World War II U.S. data uncover significant differences between the conventional Solow residual and the adjusted Solow residual in their dynamic effects on asset returns. The results from the VARs show that once variable capital utilization is controlled for, the measured aggregate productivity shock generates dynamics similar to what Basu, Fernald, and Kimball (2004) documented. More importantly, technology improvements have delayed effects on asset returns, which is somewhat difficult to be rationalized based on the frictionless model studied in this paper. |
| 日時 | ※ 6月30日（木 Thursday） 12:00-13:00 Lunch Seminar CANCELLED |
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| 日時 | 6月30日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30 *金融センターワークショップと共催 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟3階 第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Kazuo Ueda 植田和男 (University of Tokyo) The Effects of the Bank of Japan's Zero Interest Rate Commitment and Quantitative Monetary Easing on the Yield Curve: A Macro-Finance Approach (with Nobuyuki Oda) [PDF] |
| Abstract | This paper provides an empirical investigation of monetary policy in Japan in the zero interest rate environment that has held sway since 1999. In particular, we focus on the effects of the zero interest rate commitment and of quantitative monetary easing on mediumto long-term interest rates in Japan. In the study we apply a version of the macro-finance approach, involving a combination of estimation of a structural macro-model and calibration of time-variant parameters to the yield curve observed in the market. This enables us to decompose interest rates into expectations and risk premium components and simultaneously to extract the market's perception of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ's) willingness to carry on its zero interest rate policy. In the analysis we make clear the counterfactual policy that would have been practiced in the absence of the actual policies followed by the BOJ since 1999. From this analysis, we tentatively conclude that the BOJ's monetary policy since 1999 has functioned mainly through the zero interest rate commitment, which has led to declines in medium- to long-term interest rates. We also find some evidence that, up until the end of 2003, raising the reserve target may have been perceived as a signal indicating the BOJ's accommodative policy stance although the size of the effect is not large. The portfolio rebalancing effect -- either by the BOJ's supplying ample liquidity or by its purchases of long-term government bonds -- has not been found to be significant. |
| 日時 | 7月7日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30 *金融センターワークショップと共催 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟3階 第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Nobuhiro Kiyotaki 清滝信宏 (LSE) |
| お知らせ | 同日Macro Brown Bag Seminarの開催予定があります。 July 7, 12:00-13:00 at Conference Room No.1 Shigeru Fujita ( Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank) "The Dynamic Beveridge Curve" (with Garey Ramey) |
| 日時 | 7月11日（月 Monday） 12:00-13:15 *Macro Brown Bag Seminar *金融センターワークショップと共催 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟12階 第1共同研究室 at the Conference Room No.1 on the 12th floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Ricardo Lagos (New York University) Search Theory in Monetary Economics I |
| 日時 | 7月12日（火 Tuesday） 12:00-13:15 *Macro Brown Bag Seminar *金融センターワークショップと共催 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟12階 第1共同研究室 at the Conference Room No.1 on the 12th floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Ricardo Lagos (New York University) Search Theory in Monetary Economics II |
| 日時 | 7月14日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30 *金融センターワークショップと共催 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟3階 第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Ricardo Lagos (New York University) Asset Prices and Liquidity in a Exchange Economy [PDF] |
| 日時 | 7月21日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟3階 第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Keiichiro Kobayashi (Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry) |
| 日時 | 8月9日（火 Tuesday） 16:50-18:30 * COE Distinguished Seminar Seriesと共催 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟3階 第2教室 at the Lecture Hall No.2 on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Kiminori Matsuyama (Northwestern University) |
| 日時 | 9月26日（月 Monday） 12:00-13:15 *金融センターワークショップと共催 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟12階 第1共同研究室 at the Conference Room No.1 on the 12th floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Alexander Wolman (Richmond Rederal Reserve Bank) |
| 日時 | 10月13日（木 Thursday） 12:00-13:00 ※Macro Brown Bag Seminar、時間帯と場所に注意 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟12階 第1共同研究室 at the Conference Room No.1 on the 12th floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | John Friedman (PhD Student, Harvard University) |
| 日時 | 10月13日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30 *金融センターワークショップと共催 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟3階 第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | 中村恒 Hisashi Nakamura (東京大学、University of Tokyo) |
| 日時 | 10月20日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟3階 第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Andreas Hornstein (Richmond Rederal Reserve Bank) (joint with Per Krusell and Giovannni Violante) |
| 日時 | 10月27日（木 Thursday） 12:00-13:00 ※Macro Brown Bag Seminar、時間帯と場所に注意 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟12階 第1共同研究室 at the Conference Room No.1 on the 12th floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Tatyana Koreshkova (Oberlin College) (joint with Andres Erosa and Diego Restuccia) [PDF] |
| 日時 | 10月27日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟3階 第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Paul Gomme (Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank) |
| 日時 | 11月10日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30 *金融センターワークショップと共催 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟3階 第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Makoto Saito (Hitotsubashi University) |
| Abstract | This paper constructs a model in which the currency composition of national portfolios is an essential element in facilitating capital flows between countries. In a two country environment, each country chooses optimal nominal bond portfolios in face of real and nominal risk. Current account deficits are financed by increases in domestic currency debt, but balanced by increases in foreign currency credit. This is combined with an evolution of risk-premiums such that the rate of return on the debtor country’s gross liabilities is lower than the return on its gross assets. This ensures stability of the world wealth distribution. |
| 日時 | 11月17日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟3階 第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Selo Imrohoroglu (University of Southern California) |
| 日時 | 11月21日（月 Monday） 12:00-13:00 *金融センターワークショップと共催 ※Macro Brown Bag Seminar、時間帯と場所に注意 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟12階 第1共同研究室 at the Conference Room No.1 on the 12th floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Hiroyuki Ono (Toyo University) |
| 日時 | 12月7日（水 Wednesday） 12:00-13:10 ※Macro Brown Bag Seminar、時間帯と場所に注意 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟12階 第1共同研究室 at the Conference Room No.1 on the 12th floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Shang-Jin Wei (International Monetary Fund) |
| Abstract | This paper studies whether changes in global financial environment have induced governments to pursue better policies (the “discipline effect’’).The evidence indicates that financial globalization has induced countries to pursue lower inflation rates, but not succeeded in lowering budget deficits. So the strength of the discipline effect various across different public policies. |
| 日時 | 12月8日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟3階 第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Tomoyuki Nakajima (Kyoto University) Optimal monetary policy with imperfect unemployment insurance [PDF] |
| Abstract | We consider an efficiency- wage model with the Calvo-type sticky prices and analyze optimal monetary policy when unemployment insurance is not perfect. With imperfect risk sharing, strict zero-inflation policy is no longer optimal even if the zero-inflation steady-state equilibrium is assumed to do (conditionally) efficient. Quantitative result depends on how idiosyncratic earning losses, measured by the (inverse of the) relative income of the unemployed to the employed, vary over business cycles. If idiosyncratic income losses are acyclical, optimal policy differs very little from the zero-inflation policy. However, if they vary countercyclically, as evidence suggests, the deviation of optimal policy from complete price stabilization becomes quantitatively significant. Furthermore, optimal policy in such a case involves stabilization of output to a much larger extent. |
| 日時 | 12月12日（月 Monday） 12:00-13:10 ※Macro Brown Bag Seminar、時間帯と場所に注意 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟12階 第1共同研究室 at the Conference Room No.1 on the 12th floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Mark M. Spiegel (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco) |
| Abstract | We examine the pattern of price depreciation in Japanese land values subsequent to the 1992 stock market crash. While all land values fell heavily, the data indicate that Japanese commercial land values fell much more quickly than residential land values. We confirm this fact using error-correction models that indicate faster convergence to steady state values for commercial land than residential land. We confirm this fact using error-correction models that indicate faster convergence to steady state values for commercial land than residential land. We then develop an overlapping generations model with two-sided matching and search to explain this disparity. In the model, old agents own real estate and are matched each period with a young agent endowed with an unverifiable idiosyncratic service value for the old agent’s real estate. When fundamentals decline, the old agents optimally ”fish’’ for high service flow young agents by pricing above average valuation levels. This leads to higher illiquidity and default in times of price decline, as well as price persistence which is increasing in the variance of average service flows. As we would posit that the variance of service flows would be higher for residential real estate than for the commercial real estate market, this model matches the Japanese experience. |
| 日時 | 12月14日（水 Wednesday） 12:00-13:10 ※Macro Brown Bag Seminar、時間帯と場所に注意 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟12階 第1共同研究室 at the Conference Room No.1 on the 12th floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Allan Drazen (University of Maryland) |
| Abstract |
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| 日時 | 12月15日（木 Thursday） 12:00-13:10 ※Macro Brown Bag Seminar、時間帯と場所に注意 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟12階 第1共同研究室 at the Conference Room No.1 on the 12th floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Andrew K. Rose (Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkely) "Cities and Countries" [PDF] |
| Abstract | If one ranks cities by population, the rank of a city is inversely related to its size, a well-documented phenomenon known as Zipf’s Law. Further, the growth rate of a city’s population is uncorrelated with its size, another well-known characteristic known as Gibrat’s Law. In this paper, I show that both characteristics are true of countries as well as cites; the size distributions of cities and countries are similar. But theories that explain the size-distribution of cities do not obviously apply in explaining the size-distribution of countries. The similarity of city-and country-size distributions is an interesting riddle. |
| 日時 | 12月15日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30 *金融センターワークショップと共催 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟3階 第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Andrew K. Rose (Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley) (joint with Zsolt Darvas and Gyorgy Szapary) [PDF] |
| Abstract | Using a panel of21 OECD countries and 40 years of annual data, we find that countries with similar government budget positions tend to have business cycles that fluctuate more closely. That is, fiscal convergence (in the form of persistently similar ratios of government surplus/deficit to GDP) is systematically associated with more synchronized business cycles. We also find evidence that reduced fiscal deficits increase business cycle synchronization. The Maastricht” convergence criteria,” used to determine eligibility for EMU, encouraged fiscal convergence and deficit reduction. They may thus have indirectly moved Europe closer to an optimum currency area, by reducing countries’ abilities to create idiosyncratic fiscal shocks. Our empirical results are economically and statistically significant, and robust. |
| 日時 | 12月16日（金 Friday） 10:30-12:00 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟12階 第2共同研究室 at the Conference Room No.2 on the 12th floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Masanao Aoki (University of California, Los Angeles) |
| Abstract | This paper outlines the applications of one- and two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet distributions to describe stationary statistical distributions of clusters of agents by types. We discuss how the notion of residual allocation processes in statistics and population genetics literature also arises as stick-breaking processes in the physics literature. The phenomena of self-(non-)averaging in the physics literature are analogous to long-run non-vanishing of profits or variances of capital sizes in some disequilibrium economic dynamics. We offer an economic interpretation of the physical notion of non-self-averaging as something that refers to the existence of long-run disequilibrium phenomena in economics, rather than thermodynamic limits in statistical physics, since both involve non-vanishing of variances as the size or the time goes to infinity. |
| 日時 | 12月22日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30 |
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| 場所 | 東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟3階 第3教室 at the Lecture Hall No.3 on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building |
| 報告 | Masao Ogaki (Ohio State University) (joint with Youngsoo Bae and Vikas Kakkar) [PDF] |
| Abstract | In a wide class of monetary models with both cash and credit goods, the main welfare cost of inflation is that it distorts the choice between these two goods. In these models, distortions exist because the relevant measure of the relative price between cash and credit goods for consumers is the usual relative price discounted by the nominal interest rate. Changes in the inflation rate therefore create distortions by affecting the nominal interest rate. This paper proposes a new statistical method for detecting the existence and magnitude of this distortion in a monetary model of the consumption-leisure choice. The empirical analysis is motivated by deriving a long-run restriction between the stochastic and deterministic trends of real consumption, the real wage rate and the gross nominal interest rate from the first-order conditions of the representative agent’s optimization problem. Using nondurable- and food-consumption as cash goods, and leisure as the credit good, this method is applied to a diverse group of 12 economies. The evidence suggests that such distortions exist and tend to be statistically and economically significant for most high- and medium-inflation economies, but not for low-inflation economies. |
※ 2006年1-2月 修士論文報告会 Master's Thesis Presentations ※ |
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| 場所 | 全日程とも東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟3階 第3教室 All the presentations will be made at the LectureHall No.3 on the 3rd floor of the New Economics Building |
| 発表者の方へ | 下記の期日までにセンター研究支援室の厚谷（atsuya@e.u-tokyo.ac.jp）まで発表論文のファイルを送るかハードコピーをセンター研究支援室（経済学研究科棟７階７０９号室）までご持参下さい。。提出されたファイルはすぐに印刷にまわしてしまいますので、その後の差し替えがないよう、最終稿を１度だけ提出してください。期限内に届いたものについては当日配布用印刷物を用意いたしますが、間に合わない場合やその後の差し替えについては、当日ご自分で１５部ほどコピーをご持参下さい。 発表論文提出期限： 1月19日発表者＝1月17日17:00（必着）まで 1月26日発表者＝1月24日17:00（必着）まで 2月2日発表者＝1月31日17:00（必着）まで |
| 日時 | 1月19日（木 Thusday） 16:50-17:30 |
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| 報告 | 軍司 恭輝 (Readers: Ihori, Iwamoto, Fukuda) 「９０年代の日本における財政政策の効果」 |
| 日時 | 1月19日（木 Thusday） 17:30-18:10 |
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| 報告 | 加藤 晋 Susumu Kato (Readers: Iwai, Kamiya, Matsushima) "Freedom of Choice of What?" [paper] [handout 1] [handout 2] |
| 日時 | 1月26日（木 Thusday） 16:50-17:30 |
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| 報告 | 奴田原 健悟 Kengo Nutahara (Readers: Hayashi, Braun, Esteban-Pretel) "The Short-Run Effects of the Technology Shocks" |
| 日時 | 1月26日（木 Thusday） 17:30-18:10 |
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| 報告 | 笛木 琢治 Takuji Fueki (Readers: Braun, Hayashi, Esteban-Pretel) "Credit Market imperfection and the Trensmission of Monetary Policy" |
| 日時 | 1月26日（木 Thusday） 18:10-18:50 |
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| 報告 | 宮沢 健介 Kensuke Miyazawa (Readers: Fukuda, Hayashi, Yoshikawa) "Is Technology Shock Contradictionary?" |
| 日時 | 2月2日（木 Thusday） 16:50-17:30 |
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| 報告 | 山田 昌弘 Masahiro Yamada (Readers: Ito, Fukuda, Braun) "Macroeconomic consequences of bonded nationality on investors" |
| 日時 | 2月2日（木 Thusday）17:30-18:10 |
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| 報告 | 高橋 修平 Shuhei Takahashi (Readers: Ito, Fukuda, Iwamoto) "Banking Crises and Moral Hazard Problem" |
| 日時 | 2月2日（木 Thusday） 18:10-18:50 |
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| 報告 | ハイ チャントール Hay Chantaol (Readers: Fukuda, Ito, Sawada) "Currency Substitution,Inflation transmission,seignorage and Welfare The case of cambodia" |
| 日時 | 2月2日（木 Thusday）18:50-19:20 |
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| 報告 | ギゴフ バレリ スラフチェフ (Readers: Ito, Fukuda, Sawada) "Currency Crisis" |