Workshops

2007年4月4日（水 Wednesday） 18:30- 20:00 　*金融政策研究会と共催

George W. Evans (University of Oregon)

Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation (with Seppo Honkapohja)

2007年4月26日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30

Ichiro Fukunaga (Bank of Japan)

Imperfect Common Knowledge, Staggered Price Setting, and the Effects of Monetary Policy [PDF]

This paper studies the consequences of a lack of common knowledge in the transmission of monetary policy by integrating the Woodford (2003a) imperfect common knowledge model with Taylor-Calvo staggered price-setting models. The average price set by monopolistically competitive firms depends on their higher-order expectations about not only the current state of the economy but also about the states in the future periods in which prices are to be fixed. This integrated model provides a plausible explanation for the observed effects of monetary policy: it shows analytically how price adjustments are delayed and how the response of output to monetary disturbances is amplified.

2007年5月10日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30

Richard A. Braun (University of Tokyo)

The Welfare Enhancing Effects of a Selfish Government in the Presence of Uninsuarable, Idiosyncratic Risk (joint with Harald Uhlig) [PDF]

This paper poses the following question: Is it possible to improve welfare by increasing taxes and throwing away the revenues? This paper demonstrates that the answer to this question is "yes." We show that there may be welfare gains from taxing capital income even when the additional capital income tax revenues are wasted or consumed by a selfish government. Previous literature has assumed that government expenditures are exogenous or productive, or allowed for redistribution of tax revenue either via lump-sum transfers, unemployment compensation or other redistributive schemes. In our model a selfish government taxes capital above a given threshold and then consumes the proceeds. This raises the before-tax real return on capital and and thereby enhances the ability of agents to self-insure when they are long-term unemployed and have low savings. Since all agents have positive probability of finding themselves in that state there are cases where all agents prefer a selfish government to no government at all.

2007年5月16日（水 Wednesday） 12:00-13:10 *Macro Brown Bag Seminar

Laura Veldkamp (New York University)

Income Dispersion and Counter- Cyclical Markups (joint with Chris Edmond) [PDF]

Income heterogeneity rises in recessions (Storesletten, Telmer, and Yaron 2004). The counter-cyclical nature of income dispersion makes the optimal markups charged by monopolistically competitive firms rise in recessions. The reason is that when in-comes, and thus willingness to pay, are more dispersed, the aggregate elasticity of demand falls. We illustrate this effect in an equilibrium model and quantify its impor-tance for macroeconomic variables such as output, labor supply, and prices.

2007年5月17日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30

Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh (New York University)

The Consumption-Wealth Ratio: A Litmus Test for Consumption-based Asset Pricing Models (joint with Hanno Lustig and Adrien Verdelhan) [paper]

The volatility of the price-dividend ratio on stocks, the predictability of stock returns, and the lack of predictability in dividend growth are commonly interpreted as evidence of substantial time-variation in risk premia. We construct the wealth-consumption ratio for the U.S., the price-dividend ratio on total wealth. We show that it is at least five times less volatile than the price- dividend ratio on stocks. The smoothness of the wealth-consumption ratio in the data suggests that there may be less time-variation in market prices of risk than commonly inferred from equity prices alone. Conversely, asset pricing models that match the predictability of equity returns impute too much predictability to total wealth returns and hence too much volatility to the wealth- consumption ratio, because they rely on time variation in the risk premium on total wealth. This direct link between the wealth- consumption ratio and asset prices prompts us to investigate the properties of the wealth consumption ratio in the two leading asset pricing models, the external habit and the long-run risk model. Matching the properties of the observed wealth-consumption ratio is a litmus test for consumption-based asset pricing models.

2007年5月24日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30

Tony Smith (Yale University)

Inferring Labor Income Risk from Economic Choices: An Indirect Inference Approach (joint with Fatih Guvenen) [PDF]

This paper sheds light on the nature of labor income risk by exploiting the informa-tion contained in the joint dynamics of households’ labor earnings and consumption-choice decisions. In particular, this paper attempts to discriminate between two lead-ing views on the nature of labor income risk: the “restricted income profiles” (RIP) model -in which individuals are subjected to large and persistent income shocks but face similar life-cycle income profiles- and the “heterogeneous income profiles” (HIP) model -in which individuals are subjected to income shocks with modest persistence but face individual-specific income profiles. Although these two different income pro-cesses have vastly different implications for economic behavior, earlier studies have found that labor income data alone is insufficient to distinguish between them. This paper, therefore, brings to bear the information embedded in consumption data. Specifically, we apply the powerful new tools of indirect inference to rich panel data on con-sumption and labor earnings to estimate a rich structural consumption-savings model. The method we develop is very flexible and allows the estimation of income processes from economic decisions in the presence of non-separabilities between consumption and leisure, partial insurance of income shocks, frequently binding borrowing constraints, missing observations, among others. In this estimation, we use an auxiliary model -which forms the bridge between the data and the consumption-savings model- that provides a sharp distinction between the RIP and HIP models. Finally, we conduct formal statistical tests to assess the extent to which the RIP and HIP models find support in the data.

2007年5月31日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30 *金融センターワークショップと共催

Kenichi Ueda (International Monetary Fund)

Welfare Gains from Financial Liberalization (joint with Robert M. Townsend) [PDF]

Financial liberalization has been a controversial issue as there is little empirical evidence for its positive effects on economic growth. However, we find sizable welfare gains, 1 to 28 percent of permanent consumption though, consistent with the literature, the gain in the economic growth is ambiguous, -0.2 to 0.7 percent. We apply a canonical growth model with endogenous financial deepening to Thailand, 1976-96. As effective bank transaction costs decline, more people take advantage of financial services. We estimate the gains by comparing model simulations under the historical episode of financial liberalization to those under a hypothetical continuation of financial repression.

2007年6月4日（月 Monday） 12:00-13:10 *Macro Brown Bag Seminar

Tao Wu (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

TBA

2007年6月7日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30

Ayako Kondo (Columbia University)

Long-term effects of a recession at entry into the labor market in Japan and the United States ( joint with Yuji Genda and Souichi Ohta) [PDF]

We examine the effects of entering the labor market during a recession on subsequent

earnings and employment for Japanese and American men, using comparable household labor force surveys. To cut out the effect that comes from being trapped in non-regular employment in Japan, which mainly affects the less educated group, we focus on the differential pattern across groups with different educational backgrounds. We .nd a persistent, strong negative effect on earnings for less educated Japanese men, in contrast to no long-term effect for less educated American men; also, a substantial part of the effect for less educated Japanese men is attributed to the decreased regular employment. The effect for the more educated group is also stronger in Japan but more or less similar in both countries.

2007年6月14日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30

Ryuzo Miyao (Kobe University)

Understanding Price Dynamics in Japan's Deflationary Period: A Monetary Perspective [PDF]

Most economists might agree that “deflation is a monetary phenomenon in the end.”

However, Japan’s deflation still prevails after adopting a series of extremely expansionary monetary policy, namely the zero interest rate policy and quantitative monetary easing. What is happening to price dynamics in Japan? What role did money played in explaining Japan’s price fluctuations before and after the recent deflationary period? This paper examines an empirical relationship between money and prices using a time-series approach based on error-correction framework, focusing on the development in the recent deflationary period. The evidence indicates that (i) money actually played a useful role in explaining price fluctuations just before the deflation started around 1998, but (ii) the role disappeared in the 2000’s. Forecasting exercises are also performed to have a better understanding of the nature of Japan’s deflation from a monetary perspective.

2007年6月21日（木 Thursday） 12:00-13:10　

*ミクロワークショップと共催、Macro Brown Bag Seminar

Junichi Fujimoto (University of California, Los Angeles)

Implications of General and Specific Productivity Growth in a Matching Model [PDF]

In this paper, I explore the implications of incorporating long-run productivity growth into a labor market matching model. I allow the productivity growth to be of general or specific nature, and consider an environment in which risk-averse workers are matched with firms and engage in long-term employment contracts, to which the former cannot commit. I claim that such an environment gives rise to two new channels through which growth may affect unemployment. A quantitative analysis of the model shows that these two channels are able to generate the negative effects of growth on unemployment comparable to empirical estimates, while the traditional "capitalization effect" is negligible. The analysis also finds that while a greater specificity of productivity growth tends to decrease unemployment rate and lengthen workers' tenure, it makes these variables more responsive to growth and job destruction rates. These results may potentially explain certain labor market differences among US, Europe and Japan.

2007年6月25日（月 Monday） 12:00-13:10 *Macro Brown Bag Seminar

Mari Sakudo (University of Pennsilvania/University of Chicago)

Strategic Interactions between Parents and Daughters: Co-residence, Marriage and Intergenerational Transfers in Japan  [PDF]

2007年6月28日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30

Sagiri Kitao ( University of Southern California )

Global demographic trends and social security reform (joint with Orazio Attanasio and Giovanni Violante) [PDF]

How sustainable are the current social security systems in the developed economies,

given the projected demographic trends? The most recent literature has answered this

question through dynamic general equilibrium models in a closed economy framework.

This paper provides a new quantitative benchmark of analysis for this question repre-

sented by a two-region model (South and North) of the world economy where capital

flows across regions. The timing and the extent of the demographic transition|and

the associated economic forces shaping capital accumulation and equilibrium factor

prices|are very different in the two regions. Thus, the projected paths of interest rate

and wage rate in the North diverge substantially between closed and open economy.

We perform a wide range of policy experiments under both scenarios. Our main con-

clusion is that if one is interested in quantifying the path of the fiscal variables (e.g., the

value of the payroll tax) needed to keep the social security system viable or to finance

a transition towards a fully-funded system, then these two benchmarks yield similar

results. However, if the focus is on quantifying the path of factor prices, aggregate

variables and, ultimately, welfare, then the two approaches can diverge significantly.

2007年7月17日（火 Tuesday）16:50-18:30 *ミクロワークショップと共催

東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 新棟3階 第3教室
at the Lecture Hall No.3 on the 3rd floor of the Economics Research Building

Hideo Akabayashi （Keio University）

2007年7月19日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30

Kazuo Ogawa (Osaka University)

Multiple Bank Relationships and the Main Bank System: Evidence from a Matched Sample of Japanese Small Firms and Main Banks [PDF]

Based on a matched sample of Japanese small firms and main banks, we investigate the bank-firm relationships in the early 2000s. We obtain some remarkable new findings. First, small firms have multiple bank relationships even though they have their main bank relations. Second, firms tied with financially weak main banks increase the number of bank relations to diversify liquidity risk. Third, the duration of a main bank relation has a positive effect on the number of bank relations. This is interpreted as either a reputation effect or firms' counterbalance actions against the monopoly power of main banks. To go further into this issue, we examine the effects of a main bank relation on the design of loan contracts. We find that firms with fewer bank relations tend to pledge personal guarantees to their main banks and are charged a higher interest rate. Our evidence lends support for the hypothesis of monopoly exploitation by main banks.

2007年7月30日（月 Monday） 12:00-13:10　*Macro Brown Bag Seminar

Toshihiko Mukoyama （University of Virginia）

Plant-level dynamics and business cycles (joint with Yoonsoo Lee at Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)

2007年8月6日（月 Monday） 12:00-13:10　*Macro Brown Bag Seminar

Koichi Hamada （Yale University）

A Micro Foundation of International Capital Flows / 国際資本移動のミクロ的基礎

[Abstract] [Slides] [Paper]

2007年10月3日（水 Wednesday） 12:00-13:10 *Macro Brown Bag Seminar

Michael U. Krause （Deutsche Bundesbank）

Does Intra-Firm Bargaining Matter for Business Cycle Dynamics?(joint with Thomas A. Lubik) [PDF]

We analyse the implications of intra-firm bargaining for business cycle dynamics in models with large firms and search frictions. Intra- firm bargaining implies a feedback effect from the marginal revenue product to wage setting which leads firms to over-hire in order to reduce workers' bargaining position within the firm. The key to this effect are decreasing returns and/or downward-sloping demand. We show that equilibrium wages and employment are higher in steady state compared to a bargaining framework in which firms neglect this feedback. However, the effects of intra-firm bargaining on adjustment
dynamics, volatility and comovement are negligible.

2007年10月11日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30

Makoto Nirei/楡井誠（Carleton University）

Aggregate Fluctuations of Discrete Investments [PDF]

This paper demonstrates endogenous fluctuations of aggregate investments when firm-level investments follow an (S,s) policy and exhibit strategic complementarity. We present a method to characterize the aggregate fluctuations that arise from the interaction of the (S,s) policies. A closed-form distribution function of the output growth rate is derived in general environments. We show that the growth rate has a strictly positive variance even when the number of firms tends to infinity if the production exhibits constant returns to scale and the real wage and interest rate are fixed.

2007年10月23日（火 Tuesday） 12:00-13:10 一橋大学経済制度研究センター(CEI)との共催, *Macro Brown Bag Seminar

Jordan Siegel（Harvard Business School）

Political Instability and Financial Development (joint with Mark Roe, Columbia Law School) [PDF]

Political instability impedes financial development and is a primary determinant of differences in financial development around the world. Conventional measures of national political instability ? such as Alesina and Perotti's (1996) well-known index of instability, a subsequent index derived from Banks' (2005) work, and prevailing indices of managerial perceptions of nation-by-nation political instability ? all persistently predict a wide range of national financial development outcomes for recent decades. These results are quite robust to measures of factors in financial development that have obtained substantial prominence in the past decade, such as legal origin, trade openness, and latitude. These findings are for a range of key financial outcomes for all available years and for all available countries over several decades ? data that has been previously examined only partially. Political instability's significance is time consistent back to the 1960's, the period when the key data becomes available, robust in both country fixed-effects and instrumental variable regressions, and consistent across multiple measures of instability and of financial development. Overall, the results indicate the existence of a strong channel running from political instability to financial backwardness. Moreover, the robust significance of that channel opens up new ways to understand what policies will work for financial development, because political instability has causes, cures, and effects quite distinct from those of many of the key institutions most studied in the past decade as explaining financial backwardness.

2007年10月25日（木 Thursday） 17:30-19:00　※時間帯が通常と異なります※

Osamu Aruga/有賀理（Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and 　Technology）

A Simple Explanation for Investment in Obsolete Technologies: Existence of  Complementary Capital [PDF]

This paper develops and analyzes a growth model that consists of two types of vintage-specific capital: long-lived and short-lived capital. As a result of the existence of complementary capital that is chronologically compatible but has different longevity, the model generates two distinct investment patterns: (i) if the rate of the vintage-specific technological progress is above a threshold ? which is the product of long-lived capital's share and the difference in the rates of depreciation ? then all new investment concentrates on the latest technology; (ii) otherwise, some investment is allocated to obsolete, short-lived capital to exploit existing excessive long-lived capital with obsolete technologies. The result provides a new explanation for observed investment in equipment with obsolete technologies. A striking implication is that equipment price- changes do not necessarily reflect the rate of technological progress. Another implication is that acceleration in the rate of technological progress can cause an abrupt reallocation of investment towards modern capital ? consistent with investment booms that are concentrated in certain "high-tech" equipment.

2007年11月1日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30

John Stachurski （Kyoto University）

Computing the Distributions of Economic Models Via Simulation [PDF]

We study a Monte Carlo algorithm for computing marginal and stationary densities of Markov models, establishing global asymptotic normality and OP(n-1/2) convergence. From these results we derive error bounds and a new nonparametric test for ergodic Markov processes.

2007年11月8日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30

Rob Vigfusson（Federal Reserve Board）

The Power of Long-Run VARs [PDF]

Are structural vector autoregressions (VARs) useful for discriminating between macro models? Recent assessments of VARs have shown that these statistical methods have good size properties. In other words, in simulation exercises, VARs will only infrequently reject the true data generating process. However, in assessing a statistical test, we often also care about power: the ability of the test to reject a false hypothesis. Much less is known about the power of structural VARs. In this paper, I attempt to fill in this gap by exploring the power of long-run structural VARs against a set of DSGE models that vary in degree from the true data generating process. I report results for two tests: the standard test of checking the sign on impact and a test of the shape of the response. For the models studied here, testing the shape is a more powerful test than simply looking at the sign of the response. In addition, relative to an alternative statistical test based on sample correlations, I find that the shape-based tests have greater power. Given the results on the power and size properties of long-run VARs, I conclude that these VARs are useful for discriminating between macro models.

2007年11月15日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30

Takashi Kano/加納隆 （University of Tokyo）

Business Cycle Implications of Consumption Habit Formation (joint with James M. Nason)

2007年11月22日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30

Shuhei Aoki/青木周平（University of Tokyo）

Measuring Dynamic Cost of Living Index from Consumption Data (joint with R. Anton Braun and Minoru Kitahara) [PDF]

In the U.S. the objective of CPI measurement is to measure the cost of living. However, the current CPI or in other words cost of living index (COLI) measures the cost of living in a static optimization problem. This paper proposes a new method to construct a dynamic cost of living index (DCOLI). Our method offers several advantages compared to other dynamic cost of living indices proposed in the literature. First, our measure is based on total wealth. Previous indices limited attention to financial wealth. Second, we consider an Epstein-Zin preference structure. Most previous literature has used log preferences. We derive formulas that relate our DCOLI to the COLI and derive conditions under which the two coincide. We also produce empirical measures of our DCOLI. We find that under standard assumptions on preferences, the volatility of our dynamic cost of living index is about the same as the COLI. In certain periods, e.g. 1977-1983, our measure differs sharply from the COLI.

2007年11月29日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30

Takashi Unayama/宇南山卓（Kobe University）

Consumption Smoothing and Periodic Income: Evidence from Japanese Public Pensions (joint with Melvin Stephens, Jr.)

A reconciliation of recent disparate results in the literature that examines whether household consumption is sensitive to predictable income changes is that behavior becomes consistent with the model as the utility loss from not doing so increases. In this paper, we examine the consumption response of retired Japanese households to substantial monthly income changes induced by the bi-monthly receipt of their public pension benefits. We identify the effect using both the seasonal fluctuation in income as well as variation in the benefit levels across households. We find significant but small effects on household consumption. Non-durable consumption changes by roughly one percent per month due to the timing of income receipt. The most responsive consumption category is recreational services which exhibits a sixteen percent monthly change but only comprises eleven percent of monthly non-durable consumption. Overall, these findings suggest that Japanese households behave in a manner consistent with the Life-Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis.

2007年12月6日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30

Jiro Yoshida/吉田二郎（University of Tokyo）

Technology Shocks and Asset Price Dynamics: The Role of Housing in General Equilibrium [PDF]

A general equilibrium model, that incorporates endogenous production and local housing markets, is developed in order to explain the price relationship among human capital, housing, and stocks, and to uncover the role of housing in asset pricing. Housing serves as an asset as well as a durable consumption good. It is shown that housing market conditions critically affect asset price correlations and risk premia. The first result is that the covariation of housing prices and stock prices can be negative if land supply is elastic. Data from OECD countries roughly support the model's predictions on the relationship among land supply elasticity, asset price correlations, and households' equity holdings. The second result is that housing rent growth serves as a risk factor in the pricing kernel. The risk premium becomes higher as land supply becomes inelastic and as housing services become more complementary with other goods. Finally, the housing component in the pricing kernel is shown to mitigate the equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle.

2007年12月13日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30 *経済史研究会と共催

Gavin Wright（Stanford University）

Historical Origins of the New American Economy [PDF]

In recent years many American business and political leaders have expressed apprehension about potential loss of the country's technological leadership in the world, reviving a discussion that was last active during the 1980s and early 1990s. Evaluating these concerns is difficult without a clearer historical definition of American technology and its connection to economic performance. This paper surveys the historical and institutional record of U.S. technological development, with an eye towards assessing the current situation. The paper's analytical core is the distinction between the technologygenerating sectors of the economy and the technology-using sectors, which it is argued have had quite different relationships to each other across major historical phases. In the process, the paper revisits the argument of Nelson and Wright (1992) that "the advanced nations of the world have come to share a common technology." That proposition was clearly deficient as a forecast of the subsequent decade, which featured the dot.com boom and the Internet revolution, developments that fostered distinctively American productivity growth. But it may prove accurate after all, as a diagnosis of the state of the world in the twenty-first century.

2007年12月20日（木 Thursday） 16:50-18:30

Ryuichi Tanaka/田中隆一 （Tokyo Institute of Technology）

Does the Diversity of Human Capital Increase GDP? A Comparison of Education Systems (joint with Katsuya Takii) [PDF]

This paper examines how different education systems affect GDP by influencing the diversity of human capital. We construct an overlapping generation model in which agents are heterogeneous in income and innate ability, and the final goods are produced with differentiated intermediate goods. We analyze an economy in which an income distribution converges to a stationary distribution. It is shown that the diversity of human capital induced by income inequality always lowers the GDP of the next period, while the diversity of human capital induced by heterogeneous ability can increase GDP, if the produced intermediate goods are sufficiently substitutable and firms have a large span of control. Hence, as public education equalizes education resources across households, it mitigates the negative effect of income inequality on GDP, while the effects of ability tracking crucially depend on the production structure of the economy.

2008年2月8日（金 Friday） 1) 18:00-19:00, 2) 19:00-20:00*金融政策研究会と共催

1)18:00-19:00 Toshihiko Mukoyama/向山敏彦 (Virginia University)

Aggregate Implications of Indivisible Labor, Incomplete Markets, and Labor Market Frictions (joint with Per Krusell, Richard Rogerson, and Aysegul Sahin) [paper]

2)19：00-20：00 Takushi Kurozumi/黒住卓司(Bank of Japan)

Endogenous Nominal Rigidities and Monetary Policy (joint with Takeshi Kimura and Naoko Hara)  [paper]

1) This paper analyzes a model that features frictions, an operative labor supply margin,
and incomplete markets. We first provide analytic solutions to a benchmark model that includes indivisible labor and incomplete markets in the absence of trading frictions. We show that the steady state levels of aggregate hours and aggregate capital stock are identical to those obtained in the economy with employment lotteries, while individual employment and asset dynamics can be different. Second, we introduce labor market frictions to the benchmark model. We find that the effect of the frictions on the response of aggregate hours to a permanent tax change is highly non-linear. We also find that there is considerable scope for substitution between "voluntary" and "frictional" nonemployment in some situations.

2) Monetary policy analysis with exogenously given nominal rigidities is subject to Lucas' critique, if the degree of them varies over policy regimes as recent empirical studies point out. In a Calvo style sticky price model, we endogenize nominal rigidities and examine its implications for monetary policy. While previous studies stress that the frequency of price adjustment changes with steady state inflation, we focus on how this frequency varies in response to changes in the Taylor rule in the same steady state. We find that a more aggressive policy response to inflation makes firms less likely to reset their prices, resulting in a flat slope of the New Keynesian Phillips curve as observed in the post-1982 U.S. economy and a small variance of shocks to the curve as in the Great Moderation. We also find that an aggressive policy response to inflation can stabilize both inflation and the output gap by exploiting the feedback effect of the policy stance on firms' price setting. Taking into account this effect is thus crucial to the policy conduct. Further, we show that an endogenous inflation weight of the social welfare loss function is critical to policy evaluation, since this weight changes significantly with the frequency of price adjustment.

2008年3月14日（金 Friday） 1) 18:00-19:00, 2) 19:00-20:00 *金融政策研究会と共催

1)18:00-19:00 Stefano Eusepi (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

Stabilizing Expectations under Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination (joint with Bruce Preston) [PDF]

2)19：00-20：00 Teruyoshi Kobayashi/小林照義(中京大学)

Announcements and the effectiveness of policy: A view from the U.S. prime rate [PDF]

1) This paper analyzes the constraints imposed on monetary and fiscal policy design by expectations formation. Households and firms are uncertain about the statistical properties of aggregate variables, and, in particular, the policy regime characterized by a nominal interest rate rule and tax rule, and must learn about their dynamics using historical data. The presence of regime uncertainty substantially narrows, relative to a rational expectations analysis of the model, the menu of policies consistent with expectations stabilization. Moreover, there is greater need for policy coordination - the specific choice of monetary policy limits the set of fiscal policies consistent with macroeconomic stability. Resolving uncertainty about the prevailing policy regime improves stabilization policy, enlarging the menu of policy options consistent with stability. However, there are limits to the benefits of communicating precise details of the policy regime: the more heavily indebted the economy, the greater is the likelihood of expectations driven instability.

2) Until 1994, the U.S. prime rate was said to be sticky because of its irresponsiveness to short-term interest rates. After the Fed started the practice of announcing its intended funds rate in 1994, however, the prime rate has come to react immediately to shifts in the target rate. This paper attempts to explain how the Fed's policy announcements changed the behavior of the prime rate by using a simple menu cost model. It is shown that an increase in the expected duration of funds rate targets was essential to the improvement in the target rate pass-through.

※ 2008年1-2月　修士論文報告会 Master's Thesis Presentations※

下記の期日までにセンター研究支援室の田中まで発表論文のファイルを送るかハードコピーをセンター研究支援室（経済学研究科棟７階７０９号室）までご持参下さい。提出されたファイルはすぐに印刷にまわしてしまいますので、その後の差し替えがないよう、最終稿を１度だけ提出してください。 期限内に届いたものについては当日配布用印刷物を用意いたしますが、間に合わない場合やその後の差し替えについては、当日ご自分で１５部ほどコピーをご持参下さい。期限内に提出されなかった場合は、印刷を受け付けられませんのでご注意ください。

※　印刷物は発表が始まる迄にご用意致しますので、発表直前にセンター研究支援室へお立寄りいただき、各自で会場までお持ち下さい。

発表論文提出期限：

1月10日（木）発表者＝1月  9日（水）朝9:00（必着）まで

1月17日（木）発表者＝1月16日（水）朝9:00（必着）まで

1月24日（木）発表者＝1月23日（水）朝9:00（必着）まで

2月  1日（金）発表者＝1月31日（木）朝9:00（必着）まで

2008年1月10日（木 Thursday） 16:50−17:30 

柴田稔(Readers: 伊藤（隆）、井堀)

日本における景気と選挙

2008年1月10日（木 Thursday） 17：30−18：10

大坂恭子(Readers: 伊藤（隆）、岩本)

ヨーロッパにおける財政政策の経済成長への寄与分析

2008年1月10日（木 Thursday） 18：10−18：50

マオ ソウ゛ァンナリット (Readers: 伊藤（隆）、植田)

The Assessment of Dollarization in Cambodia

2008年1月10日（木 Thursday） 18：50−19：30

三国正人 (Readers: 植田、伊藤（隆）)

銀行預金のドル化が金融仲介機能に与える影響

2008年1月17日（木 Thursday） 16：50−17：30

山田潤司 (Readers: 福田、林 )

The Japanese Saving Rate

2008年1月17日（木 Thursday） 17：30−18：10

林ひとみ (Readers: 福田、吉川 )

フィリップス曲線の分析

2008年1月17日（木 Thursday） 18：10−18：50

鳴戸大輔 (Readers: 吉川、植田)

Employment form change of labor demand with product innovation

2008年1月17日（木 Thursday） 18：50−19：30

戸田アレクシ哲 (Readers: 吉川、神谷)

Existence, Computation and Example of Statistical Equilibrium for an Economy with Production

2008年1月24日（木 Thursday） 16：50−17：30

熊谷章太郎 (Readers: 井堀、岩本)

財政面における地方分権のもたらす効果について

2008年2月1日（金 Friday）16：50−17：30 　※ 曜日にご注意下さい。※

林位宣 (Readers: 福田、澤田 )

金融の発展と経済発展の関係性について

2008年2月1日（金 Friday） 17：30−18：10 ※ 曜日にご注意下さい。※

中村直敬 (Readers: 澤田、福田 )