財政・公共経済ワークショップ
Public Economics Workshop

2015年3月23日現在

※ 発表は原則として日本語で行われます。Presentations are basically in Japanese.

※ 経済学研究科教員・学生の方はご自由にご参加頂けます。

予定

今年度終了分

 

日時

2014年4月14日(月)10:30-12:10

ミクロワークショップと共催 Presentation in English

場所  

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)
1階 第1セミナー室 [MAP]  

※会場が第1セミナー室へ変更いたしましたのでご注意ください。

発表者・報告

小川光(Hikaru Ogawa) (Nagoya University)

Municipal Merger and Tax Competition

要旨

This paper integrates the models of municipal consolidation and fiscal competition to examine governments' incentives for merging municipalities when countries engage in global tax competition. The result shows that the prospective tax competition leads to excessive municipal mergers.

 

日時

2014年4月15日()16:40-18:20

ミクロワークショップと共催

場所  

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)
1階 第1セミナー室 [MAP]  

※会場は1階となりますのでご注意ください。

発表者・報告

安藤道人(Michihito Ando) (Uppsala University)

Identifying the Effects of Grants on Local Policies in the Presence of Grant Endogeneity and Grant Effect Heterogeneity [PDF]

 

要旨

Although recent empirical studies on the effects of intergovernmental grants on local policies and other outcomes have increasingly taken into account grant endogeneity, most of them rely on a linear estimation framework with a constant treatment effect or do not explicitly consider treatment effect heterogeneity in their theoretical and empirical models. In this paper, assuming a two-stage grant allocation process and relying on the potential outcome framework, I explicitly consider the case where heterogeneous propensities of local governments for public services induce endogenous grant allocation and heterogeneous grant effects on local policies. Then I discuss how a Regression Kink (RK) design with a kinked grant allocation rule can be utilized to solve the problem of grant endogeneity under the assumption of grant effect heterogeneity. Finally, using Japanese municipality panel data, I examine the causal effects of fiscal equalization grants on local policies with the RK design. Results imply that, for a specific subgroup of relatively affluent municipalities, expenditures for non-personnel education costs are arguably most significantly affected by the grants. Effects on other various expenditure categories and policy indicators are also estimated and interpreted.

 

日時

2014年5月22日(14:50-16:30 ※時間にご注意ください。

マクロワークショップと共催 Presentation in English

場所  

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)
1階 第1セミナー室 [MAP]  

※会場は1階となりますのでご注意ください。

発表者・報告

小野哲生 (Testuo Ono) (Osaka University)

Intergenerational politics, government debt and economic growth

 

要旨

This paper develops a two-period overlapping-generations model featuring endogenous growth and intergenerational conflict over fiscal policy. In particular, the paper characterizes a Markov-perfect political equilibrium of the voting game between generations, and shows the following results. First, in an unbalanced budget case, the government borrows or lends in the capital market depending on the share of capital in production. Second, when the government borrows in the capital market, an introduction of a balanced budget rule results in a higher growth rate. Third, to obtain a normative implication of the political equilibrium, the paper considers a benevolent planner with a commitment technology, and shows that the planner always chooses to lend in the capital market to save more for future generations and thus attains a higher growth rate than the government in a political equilibrium.

 

日時

2014年6月26日(木)16:40-18:20

※東大イェールイニシアティブ・山川健次郎記念レクチャーと共催 Presentation in English

場所  

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)
2階 小島コンファレンスルーム [MAP]  

※会場にご注意ください。

発表者・報告

Eric Weese (Yale University)

Inefficiency and Self-Determination: Counterfactual Evidence for Meiji Japan [PDF]

要旨

Does the exercise of the right of self-determination lead to inefficiency? This paper considers a set of centrally planned municipal mergers during the Meiji period, with data from Gifu prefecture. Quantitative and qualitative evidence suggests that the observed merger pattern can be explained as a social optimum based on a very simple individual utility function. If individual villages had been allowed to choose their merger partners, counterfactual simulations show that the core is always non-empty, but core partitions contain about 80% more (post-merger) municipalities than the social optimum. Substantial inefficiency occurs only due to a combination of vertical and horizontal heterogeneity, and efficiencies of scale and congestion in the provision of public services.

 

 

日時

2014年10月6日(月)16:40-18:10

CIRJE特別セミナーミクロ実証分析ワークショップRationality and Society Workshop経済史研究会ミクロ経済学ワークショップ応用統計ワークショップ、工学系研究科技術経営戦略学専攻と共催 Presentation in English

場所  

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)
2階 小島コンファレンスルーム [MAP]  

発表者・報告

James J. Heckman (University of Chicago)

The Market and Nonmarket Returns to Education

要旨

 

 

 

日時

2015年1月21日(水)16:40-18:20

※ Presentation in Japanese・報告は日本語で行われます。

場所  

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)
1階 第1セミナー室 [MAP]  

発表者・報告

高久 玲音 (Reo Takaku) (医療経済研究機構 (Institute for Health Economics and Policy))

安藤道人(Michihito Ando)(国立社会保障・人口問題 研究所 (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research))

Identifying Strategic Interaction in Municipality-based Public Health Insurance: Evidence from A Boundary Reform

要旨

This paper considers whether strategic interaction occurs in the setting of premium levels in a municipality-based public health insurance scheme (Citizens’ Health Insurance, CHI) in Japan. To uncover the causal effect of strategic mimicking behavior among neighboring municipalities, we exploit the fact that CHI premium levels sharply dropped when municipalities experienced municipal amalgamation during the Heisei Great Amalgamation, which took place during mid-2000s. Utilizing the incidence of adjacent amalgamation as an instrumental variable and clarifying identifying assumptions with directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and the principal stratification approach, this paper investigates how premium levels in adjacent amalgamated municipalities affect a premium level in non-amalgamated municipalities. Results suggest that there is no significant mimicking behavior in the setting of CHI premium levels in the subgroup of non-amalgamates during the Heisei Great Amalgamation.

 

日時

2015年2月20日(金)12:00-13:00

※ Presentation in English・報告は英語で行われます。

場所  

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)
1階 第1セミナー室 [MAP]  

発表者・報告

Brieuc Monfort (Visitor, Department of Economics, University of Tokyo, Ministry of Finance, French Government)

Can Increased Public Expenditure Efficiency Contribute to the Consolidation of Public Finances in Japan?

要旨

The main narrative about the Japanese fiscal situation is about the unsustainable debt trajectory. On the public expenditure side however, Japan is relatively more efficient that its peers: using a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) methodology over a range of public policies, this paper finds that Japan has high efficiency score in health care, intermediate scores in education and non-pension social expenditures, but lower scores for administrative or infrastructure expenditures. Overall the input efficiency score of Japan is of 0.78 percent against 0.71 for the OECD on average and 0.64 percent for advanced G20 countries. We conservatively estimate that the scope for efficiency savings is of the order of 2.5 percentage points of GDP or 8 percent of non-pension public expenditures. Adding additional sectors were Japan overspends relative to its peer (such as agriculture or waste management), the overall saving could be of around 3.4 points of GDP, a significant contribution to the consolidation of public finance. There are however two caveats to the main results: Japan has comparatively less scope to consolidate its public finance through enhancing efficiency that its peers in the OECD, where efficiency savings are of the order of 4.1 points of GDP, or advanced G20 economies with savings of 4.7 points of GDP; aging pressures will contribute to further increase social expenditures, no matter how efficient they might be.

 

日時

2015年3月20日(金)16:00-17:40

場所  

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)
1階 第1セミナー室 [MAP]  
※会場が変更いたしましたのでご注意ください。

発表者・報告

大野太郎(尾道市立大学)

家計の税・保険料負担:統計間の比較とマイクロ・シミュレーション・モデル

要旨

本稿の目的は(1)各種の税・社会保険料を対象に記入値を統計間で比較する ことを通じて各統計の特性を考察すること、(2)家計の税負担(所得税・住民税) を対象に記入値と理論値を比較することを通じて理論値の妥当性を検証することであ る。まず、記入値の統計間比較を通じて、『全国消費実態調査』『家計調査』は税・ 社会保険料の記入値が過小評価されていることが示された。また、記入値と理論値の 比較や、双方の乖離に関する分布を考察することを通じて、所得税・住民税における 記入値と理論値の乖離は平均がゼロ、散らばりが対所得比3 % 程度であることが示 された。このほか、乖離の発生要因として税額の記入ミスによる影響が頻度として高 いことや、調査票の記入ミスとして「事業所得などに関する誤記入」や「税額の桁間 違いによる誤記入」が乖離率に影響を与えていることが確認された。考察からの示唆 として、マイクロ・シミュレーション分析などにおける理論値は、集計したマクロの 値についてはバイアスがほとんどなく、誤差もほとんどない推計値をもたらす。その 意味で政策評価にも十分に利用することができる精度である。