Workshops


マクロ経済学ワークショップ
Macroeconomics Workshop 2016

※ 2016年5月28日

 

日時

June 2, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Mikhail Golosov (Princeton University)

Fiscal Policy and Debt Management with Incomplete Markets [paper]

Abstract

A Ramsey planner chooses a distorting tax on labor and manages a portfolio of securities in an environment with incomplete markets. We develop a method that uses second order approximations of the policy functions to the planner’s Bellman equation to obtain expressions for the unconditional and conditional moments of debt and taxes in closed form such as the mean and variance of the invariant distribution as well as the speed of mean reversion. Using this, we establish that asymptotically the planner’s portfolio minimizes an appropriately defined measure of fiscal risk. Our analytic expressions that approximate moments of the invariant distribution can be readily applied to data recording the primary government deficit, aggregate consumption, and returns on traded securities. Applying our theory to U.S. data, we find that an optimal target debt level is negative but close to zero, that the invariant distribution of debt is very dispersed, and that mean reversion is slow.

日時

June 9, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

北尾早霧 (Sagiri Kitao) (Keio University)

Policy Uncertainty and the Cost of Delaying Reform: A Case of Aging Japan [paper]

Abstract

In an economy with aging demographics and a generous pay-as-you-go social secu- rity system established decades ago, reform to reduce bene ts is inevitable without a major increase in taxes. Often times, however, there is uncertainty about the timing and structure of reform. This paper explicitly models policy uncertainty associated with a social security system in an aging economy and quanti es eco- nomic and welfare effects of uncertainty as well as costs of delaying reform. Using the case of Japan, that faces the severest demographic and scal challenges, we show that uncertainty can signi cantly affect economic activities and welfare. De- laying reform or reducing the scope of it involves a sizeable welfare tradeoff across generations, in which middle to old-aged individuals gain the most at the cost of young and future generations.

日時

June 16, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

辻山仁志 (Hitoshi Tsujiyama) (Goethe University Frankfurt)

A General Equilibrium Approach to Decomposing the Wage Inequality (joint with Manuel Macera)

Abstract

 

日時

June 23, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Alexander Monge-Naranjo (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

TBA

Abstract

 

日時

June 24, 2016 (金 Friday)16:50-18:35

応用統計ワークショップと共催、※曜日に注意

※Presentation in Japanese

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

長谷川秀司 (内閣府)

TBA

※2008SNA移行に関する説明会

Abstract  

日時

June 30, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Damiano Sandri (International Monetary Fund)

TBA

Abstract

 

日時

July 7, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

北野重人 (Shigeto Kitano) (Kobe University)

Capital Controls as an Alternative to Credit Policy in a Small Open Economy

Abstract

 

日時

July 14, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Master Thesis Presentations

Abstract

 

日時

July 21, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Chris Papageorgiou (International Monetary Fund)

TBA

Abstract

 

日時

2016年9月27日(火 Tuesday)16:50-18:35

曜日に注意。主催:ミクロ経済学ワークショップ  

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

Joseph Zeira (The Hebrew University of Jerusalem)

TBA

Abstract

 

本年度終了分:

日時

April 7, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

戸村 肇 (Hajime Tomura) (Waseda University)

Money Supply and Credit in a Cashless Economy

Abstract

This paper introduces limited participation into a neo-classical growth model to reflect the reality that the sellers of assets do not accept the buyers' IOUs, but the buyers can still arrange loans from some other creditors than the sellers. This friction generates the need for a bridge loan of money from the central bank. Optimal money supply resembles intraday money supply in the channel system. If money must be supplied through banks, then a negative shock to the limit on banks' leverage causes a negative correlation between bank credit and direct finance, as observed during the financial crisis for 2007-09.

日時

April 13, 2016 (水 Wednesday)16:50-18:35 ※曜日に注意

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Refet Gurukaynak (Bilkent University)

Inflation Experience and Inflation Expectations: Spatial Evidence

Abstract

Inflation expectation pathologies from surveys. We use inflation expectations of survey respondents around the world for Euro Area Inflation to see what shapes expectations.

日時

April 21, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Davin Chor (National University of Singapore)

Internalizing Global Value Chains: A Firm-Level Analysis [paper]

Abstract

In recent decades, technological progress in information and communication technology and falling trade barriers have led rms to retain within their boundaries and in their domestic economies only a subset of their production stages. A key decision facing rms worldwide is the extent of control to exert over the different segments of their production processes. Building on Antras and Chor (2013), we describe a property-rights model of rm boundary choices along the value chain. To assess the evidence, we construct rm-level measures of the upstreamness of integrated and non-integrated inputs by combining information on the production activities of firms operating in more than 100 countries with Input-Output tables. In line with the model's predictions, we find that whether a firm integrates upstream or downstream suppliers depends crucially on the elasticity of demand for its final product. Moreover, a firm's propensity to integrate a given stage of the value chain is shaped by the relative contractibility of the stages located upstream versus downstream from that stage. Our results suggest that contractual frictions play an important role in shaping the integration choices of firms around the world.

日時

April 28, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

宮尾龍蔵 (Ryuzo Miyao) (The University of Tokyo)

The Macroeconomic Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policies in Japan

Abstract

 

日時

May 12, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

※CARF 『バブル、金融危機と政策対応研究会』との共催

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Kristoffer P. Nimark (Cornel University)

Delegated Information Choice (joint with Stefan Pitschner) [paper]

Abstract

News media provide an editorial service for their audiences by monitoring a large number of events and by selecting the most newsworthy of these to report. Using a Latent Dirichlet Allocation topic model to classify news articles, we document the editorial function of US newspapers. We nd that, while di erent newspapers on average tend to emphasize di erent topics, news coverage becomes more homogenous across newspapers after major events. We propose a theoretical model that can match these facts. In the model, agents delegate the choice of what to get information about to information providers that monitor the world on their behalf. The degree to which information about a given event is common among agents is endogenous and depends both on agents' preferences and the distribution of possible events. When agents have a strategic motive, they respond more strongly to events that they can infer are closer to common knowledge. Delegating the choice of what to get information about to providers that condition on ex post events introduces correlation in agents' actions that is absent if agents choose ex ante what to get information about.

日時

※This seminar has been postponed to May 26.

  このセミナーは5月26日に延期されました。

May 19, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

報告

Thibault Fally (University of California at Berkeley)

Firm Heterogeneity in Consumption Baskets: Evidence from Home and Store Scanner Data [paper]

日時

May 26 2016 (木 Thursday)11:30-13:00 ※時間に注意

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Thibault Fally (University of California at Berkeley)

Firm Heterogeneity in Consumption Baskets: Evidence from Home and Store Scanner Data [paper]

Abstract

A growing literature has emphasized the role of Melitz-type firm heterogeneity within sectors in accounting for nominal income inequality. This paper explores the implications of firm heterogeneity for household price indices across the income distribution. Using detailed matched US home and store scanner microdata that allow us to trace the firm size distribution into the consumption baskets of individual households, we present evidence that richer US households source their consumption from on average significantly larger producers of brands within disaggregated product groups compared to poorer US households. We use the microdata to explore alternative explanations, write down a quantitative framework that rationalizes the observed moments, and estimate its parameters to quantify model-based counterfactuals. Our central findings are that larger, more productive firms endogenously sort into catering to the taste of wealthier households, and that this gives rise to asymmetric effects on household price indices. We find that these price index effects significantly amplify observed changes in nominal income inequality over time, and that they lead to a significantly more regressive distribution of the gains from international trade.

日時

May 26, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

※CARF 『バブル、金融危機と政策対応研究会』、ミクロ経済学ワークショップとの共催

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Heng Chen (University of Hong Kong)

The Great Famine and Household Saving in China [paper]

Abstract

The Great Famine in China (1959-1961) is one of the most dramatic tragedies in history, which may have long term consequences for economic behaviors of Chinese population. In particular, we explore whether it continues to have impacts on household saving choices. Employing a dataset across 122 Chinese counties, we find that the saving rate of rural households in 2002 tend to be higher in counties where the famine was severer; and the impact of the famine is even larger, once its severity is instrumented. Evidence from individual preference data shows that people are more willing to cultivate thrift in children in counties more severely affected. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the Great Famine altered the thrifty attitude of survivors and subsequent generations.