Workshops


マクロ経済学ワークショップ
Macroeconomics Workshop 2017

財団法人東京経済研究センター(TCER) との共催ワークショップ

※ 2017年12月18日

※ 特に表記のない限りセミナー発表は英語で行われます(Unless otherwise mentioned, presentations are in ENGLISH)。
日時

December 20, 2017 (水 Wednesday)14:55-16:40

※日時・会場に注意

※ 主催:政策評価研究教育センター(CREPE)

場所

東京大学国際学術総合研究棟 3階 「第8教室」(経済学研究科棟隣の新しい建物です。)[Map]

Lecture Hall 8 on the 3rd Floor of International Academic Research Building (A new building next to the Economics Research Annex) [Map]

報告

松山公紀(Kiminori Matsuyama) (Northwestern University)

Beyond CES: Three Alternative Classes of Flexible Homothetic Demand Systems (joint with Philip Ushchev) [paper]

Abstract We characterize three classes of demand systems, all of which are defined nonparametrically: homothetic demand systems with a single aggregator (HSA), those with direct implicit additivity (HDIA), and those with indirect implicit additivity (HIIA). For any number of goods, all the cross-price effects are summarized by one price aggregator in the HSA class and by two price aggregators in the HDIA and HIIA classes. Each of these three classes contains CES as a special case. Yet, they are pairwise disjoint with the sole exception of CES. Thus, these classes of homothetic demand systems offer us three alternative ways of departing from CES.
連続講義のご案内

松山教授による連続講義が下記の通り開催されます。 特に大学院生はふるって参加ください。

There will be lectures by Professor Matsuyama as below. Graduate students in particular are encouraged to attend.

 

報告:

MonopoListic Competition: Recent and Next Developments [Abstract]

日時 (day/time)

December 11, 16:50-18:35 (lecture 1)
December 13, 14:55-16:40 (lecture 2)
December 15, 16:50-18:35 (lecture 3)
December 18, 16:50-18:35 (lecture 4)

 

場所:東京大学国際学術総合研究棟3階・8番教室

Location: IAR lecture room 8 [Map]

 

日時

December 21, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

※主催:CARFセミナー

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Similan Rujiwattanapong (Aarhus University)

Long-term Unemployment Dynamics and Unemployment Insurance Extensions

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of unemployment insurance (UI) extensions on the incidence of long-term unemployment and on the unemployment duration distribution in the US. Using a search and matching model with endogenous separations, variable job search intensity, on-the-job search and worker heterogeneity, I allow for the maximum UI duration to depend on unemployment rate and for UI benefits to depend on match quality during employment. The model can account for a large fraction of the observed rise in the long-term unemployment and realistic dynamics of the unemployment duration distribution during the Great Recession. I show that eliminating all UI extensions (64-week reduction) during the Great Recession could potentially lower the unemployment rate by 0.9-3.4 percentage points primarily via the response of job separations. At the same time, it could drastically reduce the long-term unemployment rate by roughly 4 percentage points and the average unemployment duration by up to 27 weeks via the response of job search behaviour of insured unemployed workers. I find that once the worker heterogeneity in UI statuses and benefit levels has been accounted for, unobserved heterogeneity of workers has a small role for explaining the incidence of long-term unemployment. To make the model empirically consistent, I introduce a drop in job search efficiency amongst insured unemployed workers. This feature increases the persistence of total unemployment, average unemployment duration and long-term unemployment, and, at the same time, moderate the UI effects on the last two variables.

本年度終了分:

日時

April 5, 2017 (水 Wednesday)16:50-18:35 ※曜日に注意

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Francesco Zanetti (University of Oxford)

State Dependence in Labor Market Fluctuations: Evidence, Theory and Policy Implications

Abstract

This paper documents a novel fact: the volatility in the unemployment rate and the job separation rate is larger in periods with low aggregate productivity. A Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model with endogenous job separation and on-the-job search replicates these empirical regularities well. Endogenous job separation embeds powerful state dependence. The volatility of the job separation rate is larger in states with low aggregate productivity and in response to contractionary shocks. State dependence implies that the effect of labor market reforms is different across the business cycle and it depends on the state of aggregate productivity. A permanent removal of layoff taxes is welfare enhancing in the long run, but it involves distinct costs across states of productivity in the short run. The welfare gain of a tax removal enacted in the state with low aggregate productivity is 3.5 percent higher than the same reform in the state with high aggregate productivity.

日時

April 13, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Pedro Pinto Franco (Musashi University)

Securitization, Non-Recourse Loans and House Prices [paper]

Abstract

We study the effects of securitization and recourse (limited liability) laws on housing markets. Securitization allows originators to pass on the risk of loans they originate. As a consequence, originators stop screening due to the absence of credible signalling to securitizers. This allows speculator borrowers to start receiving loans and, when these loans are non-recourse, there is a put option that pushes up house prices during a demand boom. We thus predict that the interaction between securitization and non-recourse status should lead to higher house prices. We use heterogeneity in recourse laws in US states to test this. As predicted, non-recourse status roughly doubles the size of the positive relationship between securitization and house prices and can explain 75% of the difference in prices between recourse and non-recourse states. To address potential endogeneity concerns, we propose a new instrument for securitization, the distance of a housing market to the headquarters of 'originate and securitize' institutions, and find further empirical support for our prediction.

日時

April 20, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

奴田原健悟 (Kengo Nutahara) (Senshu University)

Can the Laffer curve for consumption tax be hump-shaped? (joint with Kazuki Hiraga) [paper]

Abstract

This paper characterizes the shape of the Laffer curve for consumption tax analytically. The Laffer curve for consumption tax can be hump-shaped if the utility function is an additively separable one in consumption and labor supply. Conversely, it cannot be hump-shaped if the utility function is the one employed by previous researchers. The difference in the utility functions has quantitatively significant effects on the peak tax rates of the Laffer curves for labor and capital income taxes.

日時

April 27, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Yong Wang (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology & Peking University)

Trade and Non-convergence of Middle-Income Countries (joint with Shang-Jin Wei)

Abstract

We develop a tractable growth model to show how a middle-income country (M) can be sandwiched by an innovating north country (N) and an imitating south country (S) through international trade. An increase in labor productivity of existing varieties (intensive margin) or in the number of varieties (extensive margin) produced in S may result in non-convergence of M to N, but this chasing effect from S disappears when S is sufficiently unproductive. Meanwhile, an increase in innovation in N not only enlarges the income gap between N and M (pressing effect from N) but also makes M more vulnerable to the chasing effect from S. We characterize how M should optimally allocate its resources between production and R&D to respond to the chasing effect from S and pressing effect from N.

日時

May 11, 2017 (木 Thursday)17:00-18:30 ※時間と場所に注意

主催:CARF特別セミナー

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第2セミナー室
in Seminar Room 2 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Neil Wallace (Pennsylvania State University)

Models of money based on imperfect monitoring and pairwise meetings: policy implications [Slides]

Abstract

The presentation will review work that deals with optimal policy in models in which money plays a role because of imperfect monitoring. Three settings will be studied: a setting with no-monitoring in which fiat (outside) money is the only asset; a setting with no-monitoring and in which money and higher-return assets coexist; and a setting in which some fraction of the population is not monitored at all and the rest are perfectly monitored. In each case, I will present examples of optima—the majority of which have policies that will seem surprising.

日時

May 18, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

山崎丈史 (Takefumi Yamazaki) (Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance)

Structural estimation of sovereign default models: The source of financial frictions [paper]

Abstract

Emerging market business cycles feature a higher variability of consumption relative to output, a strongly countercyclical trade balance. Recent RBC studies regard financial frictions as the primary source of these features, rather than nonstationary productivity shocks. However, the source of financial frictions may be nonstationary productivity shocks, although they are not a direct cause of these stylized facts. Sovereign default models are suitable for addressing this issue since financial frictions are endogenous, and nonstationary productivity shocks may or may not become important. Therefore, we quantitatively evaluate the importance of nonstationary productivity shocks in sovereign default models using simulated tempering sequential Monte Carlo. Our main result indicates that nonstationary productivity shocks are the important source of financial frictions in terms of the random-walk component criterion. Our result bridges a gap between two strands of the literature.

日時

May 25 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Michele Modugno (Federal Reserve Board)

Credit, Risk Appetite, and Monetary Policy Transmission (joint with David Aikman, Andreas Lehnert, Nellie Liang)

Abstract

We show that U.S. economic performance and monetary policy transmission depend on nonfinancial sector credit, and the effects are nonlinear. When credit is below its trend, increases in risk appetite lead to sustained increases in output. In contrast, when credit is above trend, initial expansions are followed by additional excess borrowing and subsequent contractions, suggesting an inter-temporal tradeoff for economic activity. Also, tighter monetary policy is ineffective at slowing the economy when credit is high, consistent with evidence of less transmission of policy changes to distant forward Treasury rates in high-credit periods.

日時

May 30, 2017 (火 Tuesday)16:50-18:35 ※曜日・会場に注意

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)2階 小島コンファレンスルーム
in Kojima Conference Room on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Ricardo Reis (London School of Economics and Political Science)

Achieving Price Stability by Manipulating the Central Bank’s Payment on Reserves (joint with Robert E. Hall) [paper]

* Title Changed

Abstract

Today, all major central banks pay or collect interest on reserves, and stand ready to use the interest rate as an instrument of monetary policy. We show that by paying an appropriate rate on reserves, the central bank can pin the price level uniquely to a target. The essential idea is to index payments on reserves to the price level and the target price level in a way that creates a contractionary financial force if the price level is above the target and an expansionary force if below. Our payment-on-reserves policy process does not require terminal conditions like Taylor rules, exogenous fiscal surpluses like the fiscal theory of the price level, liquidity preference as in quantity theories, or local approximations as in new Keynesian models. The process accommodates liquidity services from reserves, segmented financial markets where only some institutions can hold reserves, and nominal rigidities. We believe it would be easy to implement.

日時

June 8, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35 ※会場に注意

主催:みずほフィナンシャルグループ寄附講座、共催:CARF特別セミナー

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第2セミナー室
in Seminar Room 2 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

清滝信宏(Nobuhiro Kiyotaki) (Princeton University)

Intangibles, Inequality and Stagnation (joint with Shengxing Zhang) [paper]

Abstract

We examine how aggregate output and income distribution interact with accumulation of intangible capital over time and across generations. We consider an overlapping generations economy in which skill of managers (intangible capital) is essential for production along with labor, and managerial skill is acquired by young workers when they are trained by old managers on the job. Because training is costly, it becomes investment in intangible capital. We show that, when young trainees face financing constraint, a small difference in initial endowment of young workers leads to a large inequality in the assignment and accumulation of intangibles. A negative shock to endowment can generate a persistent stagnation and a rise in inequality.

日時

June 9, 2017 (金 Friday) 1) 11:30-12:15, 2) 12:15-13:00 ※日時に注意

主催:ミクロ実証分析ワークショップ、共催:マクロ経済学ワークショップ

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

1) 11:30 - 12:15 David Jinkins (the Copenhagen Business School)
Wage Inequality and the Location of Cities

2) 12:15 - 13:00  Marcus Asplund (the Copenhagen Business School)
Multi-agent Bargaining under Asymmetric Information: Retrofitting an Elevator

Abstract

 

日時

June 12, 2017 (月 Monday)16:50-18:35 ※曜日に注意

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Wataru Miyamoto (Bank of Canada)

Government Spending Multipliers under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan (joint with Thuy Lan Nguyen and Dmitriy Sergeyev) [paper]

Abstract

Using a rich data set on government spending forecasts in Japan, we provide new evidence on the effects of unexpected changes in government spending when the nominal interest rate is near the zero lower bound (ZLB). The on-impact output multiplier is 1.5 in the ZLB period, and 0.6 outside of it. We argue that these results are not driven by the amount of slack in the economy. A simple New Keynesian model can reproduce some features of our empirical findings if the ZLB period is caused by a deflationary trap and government spending is not too persistent.

日時

June 15, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

主催:みずほフィナンシャルグループ寄附講座、共催:CARF特別セミナー

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Russell Cooper (The Pennsylvania State University)

Household Finance in China

Abstract

This paper studies household financial choices in China, focusing on the high savings rate, low equity share in portfolio composition and low participation rate in asset markets. These decisions by education group are studied in a lifecycle model. Preference parameters, the cost of stock market participation and portfolio adjustment costs are estimated to match the financial decisions of different education groups. These estimates are compared to those obtained from a parallel study using US data. Key differences between China and the US portfolio decisions emerge from: (i) differences in income profiles and risk, (ii) differences in out-of pocket medical expenses, (iii) higher entry and adjustment costs in China, (iv) a lower consumption oor in China exposing households to more risk and (v) di erences in the estimated discount factors. Overall, households in China face more risks and larger costs of entering into asset markets. Low educated households are less patient and high education household more patient than their US counterparts.

日時

26th NBER-TCER-CEPR Conference

June 22, 2017 (木 Thursday)10:00-17:45 ■会場に注意

※ 共催:マクロファイナンス・金融&国際金融ワークショップ

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)2階 小島コンファレンスルーム
in Kojima Conference Room on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

program

10:00 am Franklin Allen (Imperial College London, CEPR, and NBER), Elena Carletti (Bocconi University and CEPR), and Yaniv Grinstein (IDC Herzliya and ECGI)

International Evidence on Firm Level Decisions in Response to the Crisis: Shareholders vs. Other Stakeholders

Discussant: Kenichi Ueda (University of Tokyo)

 

11:00 am Hideaki Miyajima (Waseda University), Ryo Ogawa (Waseda University), and Takuji Saito (Keio University)

The Presidential Turnover and the Changes of Governance Arrangement

Discussant: Yupana Wiwattanakantang (National University of Singapore and Development Bank of Japan)

 

1:30 am Randall Morck (University of Alberta and NBER) , M. Deniz Yavuz (Purdue University), and Bernard Yeung (National University of Singapore)

State-run Banks, Money Growth, and the Real Economy

Discussant: Re-Jin Guo (School of Business Administration, University of Illinois)

 

2:30 am Naoshi Ikeda (Tokyo Institute of Technology), Kotaro Inoue (Tokyo Institute of Technology), and Sho Watanabe (Tokyo Institute of Technology)

Enjoying Quiet Life under The Umbrella of Cross-shareholding

Discussant: Masao Nakamura (University of British Columbia)

 

3:45 am Benjamin Hermalin (University of California, Berkeley, and NBER)

Biased Monitors: Corporate Governance When Managerial Ability is Mis-assessed

Discussant: Heather A. Montgomery (International Christian University)

 

4:45 am Takeo Hoshi (Stanford University and NBER)

Decline of Bank-led Restructuring in Japan: 1980-2010

Discussant: Yoshiaki Ogura (Waseda University)

日時

June 23, 2017 (金 Friday)16:50-18:35 ※曜日・会場に注意

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)2階 小島コンファレンスルーム
in Kojima Conference Room on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

田中聡史 (Satoshi Tanaka) (The University of Queensland)

Sex Ratios and Long-Term Marriage Trends (joint with José-Víctor Ríos-Rull and Shannon Seitz)

Abstract

In this paper, we ask to what extent changes to the age and sex structure of the population account for the changes in the marriage behavior observed in the United States in the last century (from 1900 to 1980). The decrease in mortality, especially for women, and the changes in immigration patterns have increased the female to male ratio. With respect to marriage, there has been (i) a reduction in the gender gap of the age at first marriage, (ii) an increase in incidence of marriage, (iii) a relative increase in men’s prevalence of marriage, and (iv) a large increase in the divorce rate. We pose a model of marriage and divorce in which preferences over partners depend on partner’s age and where search frictions make it difficult to get new partners. We estimate our model using marital and population patterns of the 1950 birth cohort. Next, we combine the preference parameters estimated on the 1950 cohort and the age and sex structure of the 1870 cohort. The resulting marriage patterns are quite similar to those observed in the 1870 cohort, suggesting that shifts in preferences for marriage are not driving recent trends. In combination with the liberalization of divorce laws and the change in the gains to marriage, the resemblance is even stronger. In particular, we find that these features account for most of the changes in the marriage behavior observed in the last century: Our model explains (a) 96% of the narrowing of the gender gap in the age at first marriage (b) 102% of the increase in the incidence of marriages for women and 109% for men.

日時

June 29, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Ke JI (The University of Tokyo)

The rise of China's innovation: patents and firms' export performance

Abstract

 

日時

July 5, 2017 (水 Wednesday)16:50-18:30 ※曜日に注意

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Evi Pappa (European University Institute)

Fiscal Consolidation in a Low Inflation Environment: Pay Cuts versus Lost Jobs (joint with Guilherme Bandeira, Rana Sajedi and Eugenia Vella) [paper]

Abstract

We construct a model of a monetary union to study fiscal consolidation in the Periphery of the Euro area, through cuts in public sector wages or hiring when the nominal interest rate is constrained at its lower bound. Consolidation induces a posi- tive wealth effect that increases demand, as well as a reallocation of workers towards the private sector, which together boost private activity. However, in a low inflation environment, demand is suppressed and the private sector is not able to absorb the additional workers. Comparing the two instruments, cuts in public hiring increase un- employment persistently in this environment, while wage cuts can reduce it. Regions with higher mobility of labor between the two sectors are able to consolidate more effectively. Price flexibility is also key at the zero lower bound: for a higher degree of price rigidity in the Periphery, consolidation becomes harder to achieve. Consolidations can be self-defeating when the public good is productive

日時

July 6, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

敦賀貴之(Takayuki Tsuruga) (Kyoto University)

Decomposing Local Fiscal Multipliers: Evidence from Japan

Abstract

This paper studies local fiscal multipliers, using rich dataset of the Japanese prefectural accounts. To identify local fiscal multipliers, we rely on the cross-sectional variations of earmarked transfers from the central government to local governments. We estimate the local fiscal multiplier at the regional level. This regional fiscal multiplier can be decomposed into the component of prefecture-specific variations and the component common across prefectures within the same region. We interpret the former as the prefectural fiscal multiplier and the latter as the region-wide spillover. Our estimate of the regional fiscal multiplier on output is 1.6. The region-wide spillover is estimated to be positive and to account for about a one-third of the regional fiscal multiplier. We also decompose the regional fiscal multiplier on output into multipliers on expenditure components such as consumption, investment, and net exports. We show that the crowding-in effect are observed in consumption and investment and that the region-wide spillover is economically significant in these domestic expenditure.

日時

Master's Thesis Defence Presentations

July 13, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

1) Hu Junmao (The University of Tokyo)

Use of Loan Loss Provisions for Capital and Earning Management by Chinese Banks [paper]

 

2) Xu Lu (The University of Tokyo)

Income Distribution Shock, Liquidity Trap and Aggregate Demand [paper]

 

3) Meihong Jia (The University of Tokyo)

Technology Change and Medical Expenditure under Insurance Policy [paper]

Abstract

1) Hu Junmao (The University of Tokyo)

This thesis use data from 2010-2016 to study the use of loan loss provisions of Chinese banks in post crisis period. We carry out research to examine how banks’ capital and earning management incentives impact their use of loan loss provisions and explore difference between publicly held and privately held banks. Our result provides evidence that both publicly held and privately held bank engage in earning management to smooth earnings and private bank engage in capital management much more aggressively than public bank. We also examine the impact of debt instrument issuance and seasonal equity offerings on the use of loan loss provisions. We find clear evidence that listed bank decrease discretionary loan loss provisions before seasonal equity offerings to boost accounting profit while impact of debt issuance remains unclear.

 

2) Xu Lu (The University of Tokyo)

This paper analyzes how future income distribution shock may lead to aggregate demand drop via trigger liquidity trap. Specifically, I analyzes how future income distribution shock affects the possibility of liquidity trap, and how the shock affect the aggregate demand and output when liquidity trap occurs. In my model, there is one borrower and one lender, and the borrower is less patient than the lender. The borrower is faced with a borrowing constraint each period, which is determined by his income or value of house he owns at that period. We also assume nominal rigidity and zero lower bound in this economy. In the baseline model I discussed four types of shocks: unanticpated temporary shock, anticipated temporary shock, unanticipated permanent shock, anticipated permanent shock. I study how these shocks trigger liquidity trap and during liquidity trap how these shocks reduce the aggregated demand and output, and compare the different results under different shocks. In the extension, I discussed how liquidity trap will happen due to an unanticipated income distribution shock in the future when there is a house market, and how the shock affects the output and asset price in the equilibrium when liquidity trap occurs. The main story behinind my model is that assuming the heterogeneity among households,income distribution shock reduces/increases the consumption demand of the households. However, due to the different MPCs among households, the total change of consumption demand is not zero. This model is still at its preliminary stage, trying to illustrate one channel by which the income inequality increases the possiblity of crises, and throw light upon the implication on redistribution policy.

 

3) Meihong Jia (The University of Tokyo)

Technology Change and Medical Expenditure under Insurance Policy In recent decades, technology innovation in health care industry has contributed to higher quality of life, yet medical spending has surged rapidly in most developed countries. I develop an endogenous technology growth model of product variety expansion, taking patient demand under insurance policy into account, to explain twin growths of technology progress and medical spending. The partial equilibrium achieved by the model captures the interaction of health financing system and R&D to expand medical product varieties: (1) health insurance has increased medical consumption and incentivized the research sector to innovate new varieties of products; (2) the expansion of product variety has given an impetus for increased medical consumption and further research to innovate. Combined together, these results suggest that, through meticulous design of the coinsurance rate based on current technology level of particular types of health care, it is possible to control the medical expenditure and maintain a high level of research for product innovation.

日時

July 20, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

松林洋一 (Yoichi Matsubayashi) (Kobe University)

Secular Stagnation and Expected Profitability in Europe [paper]

Abstract

The talk will look into the causes of 'secular stagnation' the shrinking of private investments and the consequential absence of growth in European countries. Since the 2000s, and even more after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, there has been a shrinking of private investments in most European countries. The key factors affecting investment are population, technological progress, energy prices and future demand, which can all be summarized with expected profitability. To measure expected profitability, we relied on a proxy, Tobin’s marginal q. We estimate marginal q in Europe from 2005 to 2014 using a huge firm-level micro data. Using panel data, we found Germany’s median q to be around 0.65, with France, UK and other Northern European countries around the same level, while for Italy, Greece and other Southern European countries values were lower. Moreover, such values have been shrinking over time, leading us to think that secular stagnation will continue.

日時

August 21, 2017 (月 Monday)11:30-13:00  ※日時に注意

共催:ミクロ実証分析ワークショップ

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Andrew H. McCallum (Federal Reserve Board)

The Structure of Export Entry Costs

Abstract

 

日時

August 28, 2017 (月 Monday)12:10-13:10 ※日時に注意

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Matthieu Bouvard(McGill University)

The blockchain folk theorem

Abstract

Blockchains are distributed ledgers, operated within peer-to-peer networks. If reliable and stable, they could offer a new, cost effective, way to record transactions and asset ownership, but are they? We model the blockchain as a stochastic game and analyse the equilibrium strategies of rational, strategic miners. We show that mining the longest chain is a Markov perfect equilibrium, without forking on the equilibrium path, in line with the seminal vision of Nakamoto (2008). We also clarify, however, that the blockchain game is a coordination game, which opens the scope for multiple equilibria. We show there exist equilibria with forks, leading to orphaned blocks and also possibly to persistent divergence between different chains.

日時

September 7, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Shang-Jin Wei (Columbia University)

On the Divergence of PPI and CPI: A Perspective from Global Value Chains

Abstract

 

日時

September 27, 2017 (水 Wednesday)12:10-13:10 ※日時に注意

主催:マクロファイナンス・金融&国際金融ワークショップ

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Tamon Asonuma (International Monetary Fund)

Sovereign Bond Prices, Haircuts and Maturity [paper]

Abstract

Rejecting a common assumption in the sovereign debt literature, we document that creditor losses (“haircuts”) during sovereign restructuring episodes are asymmetric across debt instruments. We code a comprehensive dataset on instrument-specific haircuts for 28 debt restructurings with private creditors in 1999–2015 and find that haircuts on shorter-term debt are larger than those on debt of longer maturity. In a standard asset pricing model, we show that increasing short-run default risk in the run-up to a restructuring episode can explain the stylized fact. The data confirms the predicted relation between perceived default risk, bond prices, and haircuts by maturity.

日時

September 28, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Fernando Broner (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)

Fiscal Multipliers and the Home Bias of Public Debt (joint with Daragh Clancy, Aitor Erce and Alberto Martin)

Abstract

 

日時

October 3 , 2017 (火 Tuesday)17:10-19:00

※日時・会場に注意

※主催:金融センター特別セミナー

場所

東京大学本郷キャンパス 国際学術総合研究棟 2階 「第6教室」(経済学研究科棟隣の新しい建物です。)[Map]

Lecture Hall 6 on the 2nd Floor of International Academic Research Building, Hongo Campus (A new building next to the Economics Research Annex) [Map (Next to No. 39 on the map)]

報告

Andrew Levin (Dartmouth College)

"Central Bank Digital Currency and the Future of Monetary Policy"

Abstract

We consider how a central bank digital currency (CBDC) could transform all aspects of the monetary system and facilitate the systematic and transparent conduct of monetary policy. In particular, we find that CBDC can serve as a practically costless medium of exchange, secure store of value, and stable unit of account. To achieve these criteria, CBDC would be account-based and interest-bearing, and the monetary policy framework would foster true price stability.

日時

October 5, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Taisuke Nakata (Federal Reserve Board)

Policy Delegation and Liquidity Traps

Abstract

 

日時

October 12 , 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

岡崎哲二 (Tetsuji Okazaki) (The University of Tokyo)

Market Access, Technology and Plant Life Cycle: A Natural Experiment from Opening of Japan in 1859 (joint with Tomohiro Machikita)

Abstract

 

日時

October 12, 2017 (木 Thursday)

報告

Indraneel Chakraborty (University of Miami)

* Speaker Changed: Please see above for details.

* 発表者が変更いたしました。詳細は上記をご確認ください。

日時

October 19 , 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

須藤直 (Nao Sudo) (Bank of Japan)

Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality in Japan [paper]

Abstract

Impacts of monetary easing on inequality have recently attracted increasing attention. In this paper, we use the micro-level data of Japanese households to study the distributional effects of monetary policy. We construct quarterly series of income and consumption inequality measures from 1981 to 2008, and estimate their response to a monetary policy shock. We do find that monetary policy shocks do not have statistically significant impacts on inequalities across Japanese households in a stable manner. We find evidence, when considering inequality across households whose head is employed, an expansionary monetary policy shock increased income inequality through a rise in earnings inequality, in the period before the 2000s. Such procyclical responses are, however, scarcely observed when the current data is included in the sample period, or when earnings inequality across all households is considered. We also find that, transmission of income inequality to consumption inequality is minor even during the period when procyclicality of income inequality was pronounced. Using a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model with attached labor inputs, we show that labor market flexibility is the central to the dynamics of income inequality after monetary policy shocks. We also use the micro-level data of households' balance sheet and show that distributions of households' financial assets and liabilities do not play a significant role in the distributional effects of monetary policy.

日時

October 26, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Parantap Basu (Durham University)

Redistributive Innovation Policy, Inequality and Growth (join twithYoseph Getachew) *Title Changed

Abstract

 

日時

October 30 , 2017 (月 Monday)10:30-12:00

※日時・会場に注意

※主催:金融センター特別セミナー

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)2階 小島コンファレンスルーム
in Kojima Conference Room on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Robert C Merton (The School of Management Distinguished Professor of Finance at the MIT Sloan School of Management and University Professor Emeritus at Harvard University)

Finance Science and Financial Innovation: History and Future

Abstract

 

日時

November 1 , 2017 (水 Wednesday)12:10-13:10

※日時に注意

※主催:マクロファイナンス・金融&国際金融ワークショップ

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Pablo Guerron-Quintana (Boston College)

Political Distribution Risk and Aggregate Fluctuations (joint with Thorsten Drautzburg and Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde) [paper]

Abstract

We argue that political distribution risk is an important driver of aggregate uctuations. To that end, we document significant changes in the capital share after large political events, such as political realignments, modifications in collective bargaining rules, or the end of dictatorships, in a sample of developed and emerging economies. These policy changes are associated with significant uctuations in output and asset prices. Using a Bayesian proxy-VAR estimated with U.S. data, we show how distribution shocks cause movements in output, unemployment, and sectoral asset prices. To quantify the importance of these political shocks for the U.S. as a whole, we extend an otherwise standard neoclassical growth model. We model political shocks as exogenous changes in the bargaining power of workers in a labor market with search and matching. We calibrate the model to the U.S. corporate non-financial business sector and we back out the evolution of the bargaining power of workers over time using a new methodological approach, the partial filter. We show how the estimated shocks agree with the historical narrative evidence. We document that bargaining shocks account for 34% of aggregate uctuations and have a welfare cost of 2.7% in consumption units.

日時

November 2, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

小枝淳子 (Junko Koeda) (Waseda University)

Model-Based Estimation of Sovereign Default Risk [paper]

Abstract

We estimate a canonical sovereign debt crisis model from Arellano (2008) for Argentina via maximum simulated likelihood estimation. Despite its focus on idiosyncratic risk, the estimated model accounts for the overall default patterns of Argentina. The model-implied business cycle properties are consistent with Arellano’s findings, with some caveats. Our novel real-time default probability measure, which exploits model nonlinearity, performs better than a logit model in predicting the timing of default events.

日時

November 9, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Toan Phan (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)

Self-enforcing Debt Limits and Costly Default in General Equilibrium (joint with V. Filipe Martins-da-Rocha, Toan Phan, and Yiannis Vailakis)

Abstract

We establish a novel determination of self-enforcing debt limits at the present value of default cost in a general competitive equilibrium. Agents can trade state-contingent debt but cannot commit to repay. If an agent defaults, she loses a fraction of her current and future endowments. Moreover, she is excluded from borrowing but is still allowed to save, as in Bulow Rogof (1989). Competition implies that debt limits are not-too-tight, as in Alvarez Jermann (2000). Under a mild condition that the endowment loss from default is bounded away from zero, we show that the equilibrium interest rates must be sufficiently high that the present value of aggregate endowments is finite. Not-too-tight debt limits are exactly equal to the present value of endowment loss due to default. The determination of competitive debt limits based on endowment loss is isomorphic to the determination of public debt sustainable by tax revenues. We also show that competitive equilibria with self-enforcing debt and costly default are equivalent to Arrow-Debreu equilibria with limited pledgeability, as defined by Gottardi and Kubler (2015).

日時

November 20, 2017 (月 Monday)16:50-18:35 ※曜日・会場に注意

※主催:Tokyo Workshop on International Development

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第2セミナー室
in Seminar Room 2 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告 Roger Nord (International Monetary Fund)

Regional Economic Outlook for Sub Sahara Africa: Fiscal Adjustment and Economic Diversification [paper]

   
Abstract

 

日時

November 30, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Romain Rancière (University of Southern California)

Balance-Sheet Diversification in General Equilibrium: Identification and Network Effects (joint with Jonas Heipertz, Amine Ouazad, Natacha Valla) [paper]

Abstract

The paper uses disaggregated data on asset holdings and liabilities to estimate a general equilibrium model where each institution determines the diversification and size of the asset and liability sides of its balance-sheet. The model endogenously generates two types of financial networks: (i) a network of institutions when two institutions share common asset or liability holdings or when an institution holds an asset that is the liability of another. In both cases demand/supply decisions by one institution affect the value of other institutions’ holdings/liabilities, (ii) a network of financial instruments implied by the distribution of assets and liabilities within and across institutions. A change in the price of one asset induces change in demand/supply for all other assets, thus generating price comovement. The general equilibrium analysis predicts the propagation of real, financial and regulatory shocks as well as the change in the network caused by the shock  

日時

December 7, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告 Pol Antràs (Harvard University)
On the Geography of Global Value Chains [Paper]
Abstract

This paper develops a multi-stage general-equilibrium model of global value chains (GVCs) and studies the specialization of countries within GVCs in a world with barriers to international trade. With costly trade, the optimal location of production of a given stage in a GVC is not only a function of the marginal cost at which that stage can be produced in a given country, but is also shaped by the proximity of that location to the precedent and the subsequent desired locations of production. We show that, other things equal, it is optimal to locate relatively downstream stages of production in relatively central locations. We also develop and estimate a tractable, quantiÖable version of our model that illustrates how changes in trade costs a§ect the extent to which various countries participate in domestic, regional or global value chains, and traces the real income consequences of these changes.

日時

December 14, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

上田晃三 (Kozo Ueda) (Waseda University)

Estimating the Nonlinear New Keynesian Model with the Zero Lower Bound for Japan (joint with Hirokuni Iiboshi and Mototsugu Shintani) [paper]

Abstract

We estimate a small-scale macroeconomic model for Japan by taking account of nonlinearity coming from the zero lower bound (ZLB) of nominal interest rates. To this end, we apply Sequential Monte Carlo Squared developed by Chopin, Jacob, and Papaspiliopoulos (2013) and Herbst and Schorfheide (2015) to Japan, where the ZLB has constrained monetary policy for a considerably long period. Nonlinear estimation is crucial to draw implications for monetary policy. For example, the Bayesian model selection suggests that the past experience of recessions to bring the nominal interest rate down to zero is carried over to today's monetary policy. Nonlinear estimation, however, hardly changes the estimate of the natural rate of interest, which has often been negative since the mid-1990s.