Workshops


マクロ経済学ワークショップ
Macroeconomics Workshop 2017

財団法人東京経済研究センター(TCER) との共催ワークショップ

※ 2017年6月23日

※ 特に表記のない限りセミナー発表は英語で行われます(Unless otherwise mentioned, presentations are in ENGLISH)。
日時

June 23, 2017 (金 Friday)16:50-18:35 ※曜日・会場に注意

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)2階 小島コンファレンスルーム
in Kojima Conference Room on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

田中聡史 (Satoshi Tanaka) (The University of Queensland)

Sex Ratios and Long-Term Marriage Trends (joint with José-Víctor Ríos-Rull and Shannon Seitz)

Abstract

In this paper, we ask to what extent changes to the age and sex structure of the population account for the changes in the marriage behavior observed in the United States in the last century (from 1900 to 1980). The decrease in mortality, especially for women, and the changes in immigration patterns have increased the female to male ratio. With respect to marriage, there has been (i) a reduction in the gender gap of the age at first marriage, (ii) an increase in incidence of marriage, (iii) a relative increase in men’s prevalence of marriage, and (iv) a large increase in the divorce rate. We pose a model of marriage and divorce in which preferences over partners depend on partner’s age and where search frictions make it difficult to get new partners. We estimate our model using marital and population patterns of the 1950 birth cohort. Next, we combine the preference parameters estimated on the 1950 cohort and the age and sex structure of the 1870 cohort. The resulting marriage patterns are quite similar to those observed in the 1870 cohort, suggesting that shifts in preferences for marriage are not driving recent trends. In combination with the liberalization of divorce laws and the change in the gains to marriage, the resemblance is even stronger. In particular, we find that these features account for most of the changes in the marriage behavior observed in the last century: Our model explains (a) 96% of the narrowing of the gender gap in the age at first marriage (b) 102% of the increase in the incidence of marriages for women and 109% for men.

日時

June 29, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Ke JI (The University of Tokyo)

The rise of China's innovation: patents and firms' export performance

Abstract

 

日時

July 5, 2017 (水 Wednesday)16:50-18:30 ※曜日に注意

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Evi Pappa (European University Institute)

Fiscal Consolidation in a Low Inflation Environment: Pay Cuts versus Lost Jobs (joint with Guilherme Bandeira, Rana Sajedi and Eugenia Vella) [paper]

Abstract

We construct a model of a monetary union to study fiscal consolidation in the Periphery of the Euro area, through cuts in public sector wages or hiring when the nominal interest rate is constrained at its lower bound. Consolidation induces a posi- tive wealth effect that increases demand, as well as a reallocation of workers towards the private sector, which together boost private activity. However, in a low inflation environment, demand is suppressed and the private sector is not able to absorb the additional workers. Comparing the two instruments, cuts in public hiring increase un- employment persistently in this environment, while wage cuts can reduce it. Regions with higher mobility of labor between the two sectors are able to consolidate more effectively. Price flexibility is also key at the zero lower bound: for a higher degree of price rigidity in the Periphery, consolidation becomes harder to achieve. Consolidations can be self-defeating when the public good is productive

日時

July 6, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

敦賀貴之(Takayuki Tsuruga) (Kyoto University)

Decomposing Local Fiscal Multipliers: Evidence from the Japan

Abstract

This paper investigates local fiscal multipliers, using rich dataset of the Japanese prefectural accounts. To identify local fiscal multipliers, we rely on the cross-sectional variations of earmarked transfers from the central government to local governments. We decompose local fiscal multipliers into the component of prefecture-specific variations and the component common across prefectures within the same region. We interpret the former as the prefecture-specific effect and the latter as region-wide spillover. Our estimate of the output multiplier is 1.5. The region-wide spillover is estimated to be positive, accounting for about one-third of the output multiplier. Prefectural expenditure data allow us decompose the output multiplier into multipliers for expenditure components. We show that crowding-in effects are observed in local consumption and investment and they are generated mainly through the region-wide spillover.

日時

July 13, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

1) Hu Junmao (The University of Tokyo)

2) Xu Lu (The University of Tokyo)

3) Meihong Jia (The University of Tokyo)

Abstract

 

日時

July 20, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

松林洋一 (Yoichi Matsubayashi) (Kobe University)

TBA

Abstract

 

日時

August 28, 2017 (月 Monday)12:10-13:10 ※日時に注意

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Matthieu Bouvard(McGill University)

TBA

Abstract

 

日時

September 28, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Fernando Broner (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)

TBA

Abstract

 

日時

October 5, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

須藤直 (Nao Sudo) (Bank of Japan)

Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality in Japan [paper]

Abstract

Impacts of monetary easing on inequality have recently attracted increasing attention. In this paper, we use the micro-level data of Japanese households to study the distributional effects of monetary policy. We construct quarterly series of income and consumption inequality measures from 1981 to 2008, and estimate their response to a monetary policy shock. We do find that monetary policy shocks do not have statistically significant impacts on inequalities across Japanese households in a stable manner. We find evidence, when considering inequality across households whose head is employed, an expansionary monetary policy shock increased income inequality through a rise in earnings inequality, in the period before the 2000s. Such procyclical responses are, however, scarcely observed when the current data is included in the sample period, or when earnings inequality across all households is considered. We also find that, transmission of income inequality to consumption inequality is minor even during the period when procyclicality of income inequality was pronounced. Using a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model with attached labor inputs, we show that labor market flexibility is the central to the dynamics of income inequality after monetary policy shocks. We also use the micro-level data of households' balance sheet and show that distributions of households' financial assets and liabilities do not play a significant role in the distributional effects of monetary policy.

日時

October 12, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Indraneel Chakraborty (University of Miami)

TBA

Abstract

 

日時

October 26, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Parantap Basu (Durham University)

Redistributive Innovation Policy, Inequality and Efficiency (join twithYoseph Getachew) [paper]

Abstract

Using a heterogenous-agent growth model with in-house R&D and incomplete capital markets, we examine the efficiency and distributional effects of alternative public R&D policies that target high-tech and low-tech sectors. We find that such policies have im- portant implication for efficiency, inequality and social mobility. A regressive public R&D investment financed by income tax could boost growth and welfare via a positive effect on individual savings and effort. However, it could also discourage them via its effect on the efficiency-inequality trade off. The relationship between public R&D spending and welfare is therefore hump shaped admitting an optimal degree of regressivity in public R&D spend- ing. A case for optimal progressive public R&D investment, however, can be made with a properly designed R&D policy that combines consumption tax and investment subsidy policies.

本年度終了分:

日時

April 5, 2017 (水 Wednesday)16:50-18:35 ※曜日に注意

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Francesco Zanetti (University of Oxford)

State Dependence in Labor Market Fluctuations: Evidence, Theory and Policy Implications

Abstract

This paper documents a novel fact: the volatility in the unemployment rate and the job separation rate is larger in periods with low aggregate productivity. A Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model with endogenous job separation and on-the-job search replicates these empirical regularities well. Endogenous job separation embeds powerful state dependence. The volatility of the job separation rate is larger in states with low aggregate productivity and in response to contractionary shocks. State dependence implies that the effect of labor market reforms is different across the business cycle and it depends on the state of aggregate productivity. A permanent removal of layoff taxes is welfare enhancing in the long run, but it involves distinct costs across states of productivity in the short run. The welfare gain of a tax removal enacted in the state with low aggregate productivity is 3.5 percent higher than the same reform in the state with high aggregate productivity.

日時

April 13, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Pedro Pinto Franco (Musashi University)

Securitization, Non-Recourse Loans and House Prices [paper]

Abstract

We study the effects of securitization and recourse (limited liability) laws on housing markets. Securitization allows originators to pass on the risk of loans they originate. As a consequence, originators stop screening due to the absence of credible signalling to securitizers. This allows speculator borrowers to start receiving loans and, when these loans are non-recourse, there is a put option that pushes up house prices during a demand boom. We thus predict that the interaction between securitization and non-recourse status should lead to higher house prices. We use heterogeneity in recourse laws in US states to test this. As predicted, non-recourse status roughly doubles the size of the positive relationship between securitization and house prices and can explain 75% of the difference in prices between recourse and non-recourse states. To address potential endogeneity concerns, we propose a new instrument for securitization, the distance of a housing market to the headquarters of 'originate and securitize' institutions, and find further empirical support for our prediction.

日時

April 20, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

奴田原健悟 (Kengo Nutahara) (Senshu University)

Can the Laffer curve for consumption tax be hump-shaped? (joint with Kazuki Hiraga) [paper]

Abstract

This paper characterizes the shape of the Laffer curve for consumption tax analytically. The Laffer curve for consumption tax can be hump-shaped if the utility function is an additively separable one in consumption and labor supply. Conversely, it cannot be hump-shaped if the utility function is the one employed by previous researchers. The difference in the utility functions has quantitatively significant effects on the peak tax rates of the Laffer curves for labor and capital income taxes.

日時

April 27, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Yong Wang (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology & Peking University)

Trade and Non-convergence of Middle-Income Countries (joint with Shang-Jin Wei)

Abstract

We develop a tractable growth model to show how a middle-income country (M) can be sandwiched by an innovating north country (N) and an imitating south country (S) through international trade. An increase in labor productivity of existing varieties (intensive margin) or in the number of varieties (extensive margin) produced in S may result in non-convergence of M to N, but this chasing effect from S disappears when S is sufficiently unproductive. Meanwhile, an increase in innovation in N not only enlarges the income gap between N and M (pressing effect from N) but also makes M more vulnerable to the chasing effect from S. We characterize how M should optimally allocate its resources between production and R&D to respond to the chasing effect from S and pressing effect from N.

日時

May 11, 2017 (木 Thursday)17:00-18:30 ※時間と場所に注意

主催:CARF特別セミナー

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第2セミナー室
in Seminar Room 2 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Neil Wallace (Pennsylvania State University)

Models of money based on imperfect monitoring and pairwise meetings: policy implications [Slides]

Abstract

The presentation will review work that deals with optimal policy in models in which money plays a role because of imperfect monitoring. Three settings will be studied: a setting with no-monitoring in which fiat (outside) money is the only asset; a setting with no-monitoring and in which money and higher-return assets coexist; and a setting in which some fraction of the population is not monitored at all and the rest are perfectly monitored. In each case, I will present examples of optima—the majority of which have policies that will seem surprising.

日時

May 18, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

山崎丈史 (Takefumi Yamazaki) (Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance)

Structural estimation of sovereign default models: The source of financial frictions [paper]

Abstract

Emerging market business cycles feature a higher variability of consumption relative to output, a strongly countercyclical trade balance. Recent RBC studies regard financial frictions as the primary source of these features, rather than nonstationary productivity shocks. However, the source of financial frictions may be nonstationary productivity shocks, although they are not a direct cause of these stylized facts. Sovereign default models are suitable for addressing this issue since financial frictions are endogenous, and nonstationary productivity shocks may or may not become important. Therefore, we quantitatively evaluate the importance of nonstationary productivity shocks in sovereign default models using simulated tempering sequential Monte Carlo. Our main result indicates that nonstationary productivity shocks are the important source of financial frictions in terms of the random-walk component criterion. Our result bridges a gap between two strands of the literature.

日時

May 25 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Michele Modugno (Federal Reserve Board)

Credit, Risk Appetite, and Monetary Policy Transmission (joint with David Aikman, Andreas Lehnert, Nellie Liang)

Abstract

We show that U.S. economic performance and monetary policy transmission depend on nonfinancial sector credit, and the effects are nonlinear. When credit is below its trend, increases in risk appetite lead to sustained increases in output. In contrast, when credit is above trend, initial expansions are followed by additional excess borrowing and subsequent contractions, suggesting an inter-temporal tradeoff for economic activity. Also, tighter monetary policy is ineffective at slowing the economy when credit is high, consistent with evidence of less transmission of policy changes to distant forward Treasury rates in high-credit periods.

日時

May 30, 2017 (火 Tuesday)16:50-18:35 ※曜日・会場に注意

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)2階 小島コンファレンスルーム
in Kojima Conference Room on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Ricardo Reis (London School of Economics and Political Science)

Achieving Price Stability by Manipulating the Central Bank’s Payment on Reserves (joint with Robert E. Hall) [paper]

* Title Changed

Abstract

Today, all major central banks pay or collect interest on reserves, and stand ready to use the interest rate as an instrument of monetary policy. We show that by paying an appropriate rate on reserves, the central bank can pin the price level uniquely to a target. The essential idea is to index payments on reserves to the price level and the target price level in a way that creates a contractionary financial force if the price level is above the target and an expansionary force if below. Our payment-on-reserves policy process does not require terminal conditions like Taylor rules, exogenous fiscal surpluses like the fiscal theory of the price level, liquidity preference as in quantity theories, or local approximations as in new Keynesian models. The process accommodates liquidity services from reserves, segmented financial markets where only some institutions can hold reserves, and nominal rigidities. We believe it would be easy to implement.

日時

June 8, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35 ※会場に注意

主催:みずほフィナンシャルグループ寄附講座、共催:CARF特別セミナー

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第2セミナー室
in Seminar Room 2 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

清滝信宏(Nobuhiro Kiyotaki) (Princeton University)

Intangibles, Inequality and Stagnation (joint with Shengxing Zhang) [paper]

Abstract

We examine how aggregate output and income distribution interact with accumulation of intangible capital over time and across generations. We consider an overlapping generations economy in which skill of managers (intangible capital) is essential for production along with labor, and managerial skill is acquired by young workers when they are trained by old managers on the job. Because training is costly, it becomes investment in intangible capital. We show that, when young trainees face financing constraint, a small difference in initial endowment of young workers leads to a large inequality in the assignment and accumulation of intangibles. A negative shock to endowment can generate a persistent stagnation and a rise in inequality.

日時

June 9, 2017 (金 Friday) 1) 11:30-12:15, 2) 12:15-13:00 ※日時に注意

主催:ミクロ実証分析ワークショップ、共催:マクロ経済学ワークショップ

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

1) 11:30 - 12:15 David Jinkins (the Copenhagen Business School)
Wage Inequality and the Location of Cities

2) 12:15 - 13:00  Marcus Asplund (the Copenhagen Business School)
Multi-agent Bargaining under Asymmetric Information: Retrofitting an Elevator

Abstract

 

日時

June 12, 2017 (月 Monday)16:50-18:35 ※曜日に注意

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Wataru Miyamoto (Bank of Canada)

Government Spending Multipliers under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan (joint with Thuy Lan Nguyen and Dmitriy Sergeyev) [paper]

Abstract

Using a rich data set on government spending forecasts in Japan, we provide new evidence on the effects of unexpected changes in government spending when the nominal interest rate is near the zero lower bound (ZLB). The on-impact output multiplier is 1.5 in the ZLB period, and 0.6 outside of it. We argue that these results are not driven by the amount of slack in the economy. A simple New Keynesian model can reproduce some features of our empirical findings if the ZLB period is caused by a deflationary trap and government spending is not too persistent.

日時

June 15, 2017 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

主催:みずほフィナンシャルグループ寄附講座、共催:CARF特別セミナー

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Russell Cooper (The Pennsylvania State University)

Household Finance in China

Abstract

This paper studies household financial choices in China, focusing on the high savings rate, low equity share in portfolio composition and low participation rate in asset markets. These decisions by education group are studied in a lifecycle model. Preference parameters, the cost of stock market participation and portfolio adjustment costs are estimated to match the financial decisions of different education groups. These estimates are compared to those obtained from a parallel study using US data. Key differences between China and the US portfolio decisions emerge from: (i) differences in income profiles and risk, (ii) differences in out-of pocket medical expenses, (iii) higher entry and adjustment costs in China, (iv) a lower consumption oor in China exposing households to more risk and (v) di erences in the estimated discount factors. Overall, households in China face more risks and larger costs of entering into asset markets. Low educated households are less patient and high education household more patient than their US counterparts.

日時

26th NBER-TCER-CEPR Conference

June 22, 2017 (木 Thursday)10:00-17:45 ■会場に注意

※ 共催:マクロファイナンス・金融&国際金融ワークショップ

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)2階 小島コンファレンスルーム
in Kojima Conference Room on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

program

10:00 am Franklin Allen (Imperial College London, CEPR, and NBER), Elena Carletti (Bocconi University and CEPR), and Yaniv Grinstein (IDC Herzliya and ECGI)

International Evidence on Firm Level Decisions in Response to the Crisis: Shareholders vs. Other Stakeholders

Discussant: Kenichi Ueda (University of Tokyo)

 

11:00 am Hideaki Miyajima (Waseda University), Ryo Ogawa (Waseda University), and Takuji Saito (Keio University)

The Presidential Turnover and the Changes of Governance Arrangement

Discussant: Yupana Wiwattanakantang (National University of Singapore and Development Bank of Japan)

 

1:30 am Randall Morck (University of Alberta and NBER) , M. Deniz Yavuz (Purdue University), and Bernard Yeung (National University of Singapore)

State-run Banks, Money Growth, and the Real Economy

Discussant: Re-Jin Guo (School of Business Administration, University of Illinois)

 

2:30 am Naoshi Ikeda (Tokyo Institute of Technology), Kotaro Inoue (Tokyo Institute of Technology), and Sho Watanabe (Tokyo Institute of Technology)

Enjoying Quiet Life under The Umbrella of Cross-shareholding

Discussant: Masao Nakamura (University of British Columbia)

 

3:45 am Benjamin Hermalin (University of California, Berkeley, and NBER)

Biased Monitors: Corporate Governance When Managerial Ability is Mis-assessed

Discussant: Heather A. Montgomery (International Christian University)

 

4:45 am Takeo Hoshi (Stanford University and NBER)

Decline of Bank-led Restructuring in Japan: 1980-2010

Discussant: Yoshiaki Ogura (Waseda University)