Workshops


マクロ経済学ワークショップ
Macroeconomics Workshop 2018

 

※ 2018年5月25日

※ 特に表記のない限りセミナー発表は英語で行われます(Unless otherwise mentioned, presentations are in ENGLISH)。

※2018年度より授業時間が2限(10:25-12:10)へ変更いたします。
日時

May 29, 2018 (火 Tuesday) 10:25-12:10

※曜日・場所に注意

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)2階 第3セミナー室
in Seminar Room 3 on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Alberto Martin (Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional)

"Monetary Policy for a Bubbly World" (joint with Vladimir Asriyan, Luca Fornaro, and Jaume Ventura)

Abstract

 

日時

June 7, 2018 (木 Thursday) 10:25-12:10

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Levent Altinoglu (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)

"The Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations in a Credit Network Economy" [paper]

Abstract

I build a network model of the economy in which intermediate goods are financed partly by supplier credit. The credit linkages between firms propagate financial shocks and amplify their aggregate effects. Combining firm- and industry-level data, I estimate aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks to industries in the US and find that financial shocks are a prominent driver of cyclical fluctuations, accounting for two-thirds of the drop in industrial production during the Great Recession. Furthermore, idiosyncratic financial shocks to a few key industries can explain a considerable portion of these effects. In contrast, productivity shocks had a negligible impact during the recession.

日時

June 14, 2018 (木 Thursday) 10:25-12:10

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Toshihiko Mukoyama (Georgetown University)

TBA

Abstract

 

日時

June 15, 2018 (金 Friday) 10:25-12:10 ※曜日に注意

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Ned Prescott (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland )

TBA

Abstract

 

日時

June 21, 2018 (木 Thursday) 10:25-12:10

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Michal Farbinger (University of Tokyo)

TBA

Abstract

 

日時

June 28, 2018 (木 Thursday) 10:25-12:10

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Yongs Shin (Washington University)

TBA

Abstract

 

日時

July 5, 2018 (木 Thursday) 10:25-12:10

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Jinhui Bai (Washington State University and Tsinghua University)

TBA

Abstract

 

※Master's Thesis Presentations ※

We can print your thesis paper to be distributed at the seminar venue.  Please send an electronic file of it to CIRJE at cirje [at mark] e.u-tokyo.ac.jp, so that CIRJE can duplicate it.  You can also bring its hardcopy directly to the CIRJE office on the 6th floor of Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall). 

The submission deadline is (please be punctual): by 4:30pm, July 11 (Wednesday)
Make sure that

  • Submission behind the deadline is not accepted for any reason.
  • The file/hardcopy submitted to CIRJE should be the final version.
  • You need to send your emergency contact information such as cell phone number along with your thesis file, so that CIRJE can reach you in case the file cannot be opened/is broken
  • Please put a file of your presentation slides only in your USB memory when you come to the seminar venue since it is sometimes not recognized when other files are inculded in the USB memory.

Those who missed the deadline or those who would like to revise the thesis paper after the submission, are required to make 15 hardcopies of it and bring them to the seminar venue on the presentation day.

You MUST attend an official oral examination in addition to this master thesis presentation:  for details, please see the schedule to be distributed by the Graduate Office when you submit your thesis.

Presenters can use equipment such as a computer and a pointer in a locker in the seminar venue on the presentation day:  make sure they should be back into place after use.

 

日時

July 12, 2018 (木 Thursday) 10:25-12:10

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

HUANG Yuanfan

The Comparative Analysis of factors affecting the House
Prices of first-tier and second-tier cities in China (Reader:福田)

YU Fei

The geography of syndication investment networks of venture capital
in China (Reader:楡井)

日時

July 19, 2018 (木 Thursday) 10:25-12:10

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

笹原彰 (Akira Sasahara) (University of Idaho)

"Costs of Sovereign Defaults: Restructuring Strategies, Bank Distress and the Credit-Investment Channel" (joint with Tamon Asonuma, Marcos Chamon, and Aitor Erce)

Abstract

Sovereign debt restructurings are associated with a decline in GDP, investment, and private sector credit. The transmission channels and associated output and banking sector costs depend on whether the restructuring takes place preemptively, without missing payments to creditors, or whether it takes place after a default has occurred. Post-default restructurings are associated with a more severe decline in bank credit, an increase in bank lending interest rates, and a higher likelihood of triggering a banking crisis than pre-emptive restructurings. Our local projection estimates show a large decline in GDP and investment amplified by credit crunches and transmitted through a “credit-investment channel”.

日時

September 27, 2018 (木 Thursday) 10:25-12:10

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

平口良司 (Ryoji Hiraguchi) (Meiji University)

TBA

Abstract

 

日時

October 4, 2018 (木 Thursday) 10:25-12:10

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Richard Anton Braun (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)

TBA

Abstract

 

本年度終了分:

日時

April 5, 2018 (木 Thursday) 10:25-12:10

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

和田賢治 (Kenji Wada) (Keio University)

"Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Bond Market in Japan: A New-Keynesian Perspective" (joint with Parantap Basu)

Abstract

In this paper, we set up a medium scale new-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to analyze the effects of various phases of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) on the Japanese bond market. Our model has two novel features: (i) a banking friction in the form of an aggregate bank run risk to motivate a commercial banks’ demand for excess reserve, and (ii) dynamic linkage between Central Bank resource constraint and the governmental budget constraint via a transfer payment by the Central Bank to the Treasury. We do three policy simulations to analyze the effects of various phases of UMP shocks on the bond market, namely: (i) effect of a quantitative easing (QE) shock; (ii) the effect of a negative shock to the overnight borrowing rate; and (iii) the effect of a negative shock to the interest rate on banks’ excess reserve (IOER). In light of these results, we do an evaluation of the recent yield curve control policy of the Bank of Japan.

日時

April 17, 2018 (火 Tuesday) 12:10-13:00

※日時・場所に注意

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)2階 第3セミナー室
in Seminar Room 3 on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Cheng Chen (The University of Hong Kong)

"Uncertainty, Imperfect Information,
and Learning in the International Market" [paper]

Abstract

This paper uses a unique dataset of Japanese multinational affiliates, which contains information on sales forecasts, to detect information imperfection and learning in the international market. We document three stylized facts concerning affiliates' forecasts. First, forecast errors (FEs) of sales decline with the affiliate's age. Second, if the parent firm has previous export experience to the region where its affiliate is set up, the entering affiliate starts with a smaller absolute value of FEs. Third, FEs of sales are positively correlated over time and this positive correlation becomes stronger when the affiliates are located further away from Japan. In total, we view these facts as direct evidence for the existence of imperfect information and learning in the international market. We then build up and quantify a dynamic industry equilibrium model of trade and foreign direct investment (FDI), which features information rigidity and learning, in order to explain the documented facts. Counterfactual analysis shows that the variance of time-invariant demand draws and that of transitory shocks have qualitatively different and quantitatively important implications for dynamic patterns of trade/multinational production, dynamic selection, and aggregate productivity.

日時

April 19, 2018 (木 Thursday) 10:25-12:10

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

寺西勇生 (Yuki Teranishi)(Keio University)

"Product Cycles and Prices: Search Foundation" (joint with Mei Dong) [paper]

Abstract

This paper develops a price model with a search foundation based on product cycles and prices. Observations conclude that firms match with a new product, then set a new price through negotiation and fix the price until the product exits from a market. This evident behavior results in a new model of price stickiness as a Search-based Phillips curve. The model includes a New Keynesian Phillips curve with Calvo's price adjustment as a special case and describes new phenomena. First, new parameters and variables of a frictional goods market determine price dynamics. As separation rate in a goods market decreases, price becomes more sticky, i.e., a atter slope in a Search-based Phillips curve, since the product turnover cycle is sluggish. Moreover, other goods market features, such as proba- bility of match, elasticity of match, and bargaining power for a price setting decide price dynamics. Second, goods market friction can make endogenously persistent inflation dynamics without an assumption of indexation to a lagged in flation rate. Third, when the number of a product persistently increases, deflation continues for a long period. It can explain a secular deflation.

日時

May 10, 2018 (木 Thursday) 10:25-12:10

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Greg Kaplan (University of Chicago)

"The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence" (joint with Kurt Mitman, and Giovanni L. Violante) [paper]

Abstract

We build a model of the U.S. economy with multiple aggregate shocks (income, housing finance conditions, and beliefs about future housing demand ) that generate fluctuations in equilibrium house prices. Through a series of counterfac tual experiments, we study the housing boom and bust around the Great Recession and obta in three main results. First, we find that the main driver of movements in house prices and rents was a shift in beliefs. Shifts in credit conditions do not move house prices but are important for the dynamics of home ownership, leverage, and foreclosures. The role of housing rental markets and long-term mortgages in alleviating credit cons traints is central to these findings. Second, our model suggests that the boom-bust in house prices explains half of the corresponding swings in non-durable expenditures and that the transmission mechanism is a wealth effect through household balance sheets. Third, we find that a large-scale debt forgiveness program would have done little to temper the collapse of house prices and expenditures, but would have dramatically reduced foreclosures and induced a small, but persistent, increase in consumption during the recovery.

日時

May 17, 2018 (木 Thursday) 10:25-12:10

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Konstantin Kucheryavyy (The University of Tokyo)

"A Unified Model of International Business Cycles and Trade" (joint with Saroj Bhattarai) [paper]

Abstract

We present a general, competitive open economy business cycles model with capital accumulation, trade in intermediate goods, production externalities in the intermediate and final goods sectors, and iceberg trade costs. Our main theoretical result shows that under appropriate parameter restrictions this model is isomorphic in terms of aggregate equilibrium predictions to dynamic versions of workhorse quantitative models of international trade: Eaton-Kortum, Krugman, and Melitz. The parameter restrictions apply on the overall scale of externalities, the split of externalities between factors of production, and the identity of sectors with externalities. Our quantitative exercise assesses whether various restricted versions of the general model—in forms they are typically considered in the literature—are able to resolve well-known aggregate empirical puzzles in the international business cycles literature. Our theoretical result on isomorphism between models provides insights on why dynamic versions of international trade models fail to resolve these puzzles in so many instances. We then additionally explore in what directions they need to be amended to provide a better fit with the data. We show that an essential feature is negative capital externalities in intermediate goods production. We thus provide a unified theoretical and quantitative treatment of the international business cycles and trade literatures in a general dynamic framework.

日時

May 24, 2018 (木 Thursday) 10:25-12:10

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

久保田荘 (So Kubota) (The University of Tokyo)

"Culture and Labor Supply: Decline in Female Market Work in Turkey" [paper]

Abstract

Turkey has experienced the world largest decline in female labor force participation rate: it has fallen from 72% in 1955 to 29% in 2011. While there is a large decrease in female agriculture employment, there is only a small increase in service sector. This paper argues that, (i) the main industry has shifted from agriculture to non-agriculture, (ii) because of the social stigma against non-family market work for Turkish women, they have failed to move from agriculture to other sectors. I construct a simple general equilibrium model of sectoral reallocation with gender and calibrate its parameters to match the U.S. data. Quantitatively, the baseline model does a reasonable job to explain the female labor supply in the U.S. and also several European countries, while it misses dramatically in capturing Turkish data. I add the stigma effect for Turkish women, then the model does a good job of capturing the evolution of sectoral hours by gender in Turkey. This paper suggests a quantitative importance of cultural factors.