Workshops


マクロ経済学ワークショップ
Macroeconomics Workshop 2016

※ 2016年7月19日

 

日時

July 21, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Jan J. J. Groen (Federal Reserve Bank of New York )

Oil Market Shocks and Economic Activity: Redux

Abstract

If oil price changes reflect demand shocks, then an oil price decline, say, would suggest a slowdown in global economic activity. Alternatively, if the oil prices are driven by supply shocks, then the drop in prices might indicate a forthcoming boost in spending as firms and households benefit from lower energy costs. In this paper, I use correlations of weekly oil price changes with a broad array of financial variables to decompose oil price changes in components due to global demand and those due to global oil supply. Quarterly aggregates of these two weekly oil price shocks are then used as proxy variables to identify the impact of latent oil market shocks in a quarterly macro-economic VAR model of the U.S. economy. This analysis shows that supply-driven oil market shocks can potentially impact U.S. economic activity in a more significant manner than demand-driven oil market shocks.

 

日時

August 4, 2016 (木 Thursday) 14:55-16:40

※時間・場所に注意 みずほフィナンシャルグループ寄付講座と共催

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)2階 小島コンファレンスルーム
in Kojima Conference Room on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

清滝信宏 (Nobuhiro Kiyotaki) (Princeton University)

Monetary and Financial Policies in Emerging Markets

Abstract

 

 

Master's Thesis Presentations on July 14 and 28

Please note that the schedule might be changed. Presentations in English.

Guideline

 

Your thesis paper is distributed at the seminar venue.  Please send an electronic file of it to CIRJE at cirje [at mark] e.u-tokyo.ac.jp, so that CIRJE can duplicate it.  You can also bring its hardcopy directly to the CIRJE office on the 6th (top) floor of Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall). 

 

The submission deadline is (please be punctual):

July 14 (Thursday)… by 9:00am, July 14 (Thursday)
July 28 (Thursday)…by 9:00am, July 28 (Thursday)

 

Make sure that

  • Submission behind the deadline is not accepted for any reason.
  • The file/hardcopy submitted to CIRJE should be the final version.
  • You need to send your emergency contact information such as cell phone number together with your thesis file, so that CIRJE can immediately reach you in case the file cannot be opened/is broken
  • Please put a file of your presentation slides only in your USB memory when you come to the seminar venue since it is sometimes not recognized when other files are inculded in the USB memory.

Those who missed the deadline or those who would like to revise the thesis paper after the submission, are required to make 15 hardcopies of it and bring them to the seminar venue on the presentation day.

You MUST attend an official oral examination in addition to this master thesis presentation:  for details, please see the schedule to be distributed by the Graduate Office when you submit your thesis.

Presenters can use equipment such as a computer and a pointer in a locker in the seminar venue during their presentations:  make sure they should be back into place after use.


日時

July 14, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:50

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Master Thesis Presentations

Schedule

 

16:50-17:30 JI Jin (Readers: Hirano, Fabinger, Kucheryavyy)

 

17:30-18:10 REN Zihang (Readers: Nakabayashi, Fabinger, Sasaki)

 

18:10-18:50 WANG Huan (Readers: Fabinger, Kucheryavyy, Wakamori, Aoki)

 

日時

July 28, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:50

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Master Thesis Presentations

Schedule

 

16:50-17:30 Zhu Jun (Readers: Kazuo Ueda, Hirano, Kucheryavyy)

 

17:30-18:10 Liu Pengdi (Readers: Kazuo Ueda, Hirano, Kucheryavyy)

 

18:10-18:50 Yi Fangyuan (Readers: Aoki, Hiraho, Watanabe)

 

 

日時

September 8, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Julian di Giovanni (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)

TBA

Abstract

 

日時

September 15, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Chris Edmond (University of Melbourne)

TBA

Abstract

 

日時

September 21, 2016 (水 Wednesday)16:50-18:35

曜日に注意。  

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

Hashmat Khan (Carleton University)

TBA

Abstract

 

日時

September 27, 2016 (火 Tuesday)16:50-18:35

曜日に注意。主催:ミクロ経済学ワークショップ  

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

Joseph Zeira (The Hebrew University of Jerusalem)

TBA

Abstract

 

本年度終了分:

日時

April 7, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

戸村 肇 (Hajime Tomura) (Waseda University)

Money Supply and Credit in a Cashless Economy

Abstract

This paper introduces limited participation into a neo-classical growth model to reflect the reality that the sellers of assets do not accept the buyers' IOUs, but the buyers can still arrange loans from some other creditors than the sellers. This friction generates the need for a bridge loan of money from the central bank. Optimal money supply resembles intraday money supply in the channel system. If money must be supplied through banks, then a negative shock to the limit on banks' leverage causes a negative correlation between bank credit and direct finance, as observed during the financial crisis for 2007-09.

日時

April 13, 2016 (水 Wednesday)16:50-18:35 ※曜日に注意

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Refet Gurukaynak (Bilkent University)

Inflation Experience and Inflation Expectations: Spatial Evidence

Abstract

Inflation expectation pathologies from surveys. We use inflation expectations of survey respondents around the world for Euro Area Inflation to see what shapes expectations.

日時

April 21, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Davin Chor (National University of Singapore)

Internalizing Global Value Chains: A Firm-Level Analysis [paper]

Abstract

In recent decades, technological progress in information and communication technology and falling trade barriers have led rms to retain within their boundaries and in their domestic economies only a subset of their production stages. A key decision facing rms worldwide is the extent of control to exert over the different segments of their production processes. Building on Antras and Chor (2013), we describe a property-rights model of rm boundary choices along the value chain. To assess the evidence, we construct rm-level measures of the upstreamness of integrated and non-integrated inputs by combining information on the production activities of firms operating in more than 100 countries with Input-Output tables. In line with the model's predictions, we find that whether a firm integrates upstream or downstream suppliers depends crucially on the elasticity of demand for its final product. Moreover, a firm's propensity to integrate a given stage of the value chain is shaped by the relative contractibility of the stages located upstream versus downstream from that stage. Our results suggest that contractual frictions play an important role in shaping the integration choices of firms around the world.

日時

April 28, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

宮尾龍蔵 (Ryuzo Miyao) (The University of Tokyo)

The Macroeconomic Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policies in Japan

Abstract

 

日時

May 12, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

※CARF 『バブル、金融危機と政策対応研究会』との共催

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Kristoffer P. Nimark (Cornel University)

Delegated Information Choice (joint with Stefan Pitschner) [paper]

Abstract

News media provide an editorial service for their audiences by monitoring a large number of events and by selecting the most newsworthy of these to report. Using a Latent Dirichlet Allocation topic model to classify news articles, we document the editorial function of US newspapers. We nd that, while di erent newspapers on average tend to emphasize di erent topics, news coverage becomes more homogenous across newspapers after major events. We propose a theoretical model that can match these facts. In the model, agents delegate the choice of what to get information about to information providers that monitor the world on their behalf. The degree to which information about a given event is common among agents is endogenous and depends both on agents' preferences and the distribution of possible events. When agents have a strategic motive, they respond more strongly to events that they can infer are closer to common knowledge. Delegating the choice of what to get information about to providers that condition on ex post events introduces correlation in agents' actions that is absent if agents choose ex ante what to get information about.

日時

※This seminar has been postponed to May 26.

  このセミナーは5月26日に延期されました。

May 19, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

報告

Thibault Fally (University of California at Berkeley)

Firm Heterogeneity in Consumption Baskets: Evidence from Home and Store Scanner Data [paper]

日時

May 26 2016 (木 Thursday)11:30-13:00 ※時間に注意

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Thibault Fally (University of California at Berkeley)

Firm Heterogeneity in Consumption Baskets: Evidence from Home and Store Scanner Data [paper]

Abstract

A growing literature has emphasized the role of Melitz-type firm heterogeneity within sectors in accounting for nominal income inequality. This paper explores the implications of firm heterogeneity for household price indices across the income distribution. Using detailed matched US home and store scanner microdata that allow us to trace the firm size distribution into the consumption baskets of individual households, we present evidence that richer US households source their consumption from on average significantly larger producers of brands within disaggregated product groups compared to poorer US households. We use the microdata to explore alternative explanations, write down a quantitative framework that rationalizes the observed moments, and estimate its parameters to quantify model-based counterfactuals. Our central findings are that larger, more productive firms endogenously sort into catering to the taste of wealthier households, and that this gives rise to asymmetric effects on household price indices. We find that these price index effects significantly amplify observed changes in nominal income inequality over time, and that they lead to a significantly more regressive distribution of the gains from international trade.

日時

May 26, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

※CARF 『バブル、金融危機と政策対応研究会』、ミクロ経済学ワークショップとの共催

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Heng Chen (University of Hong Kong)

The Great Famine and Household Saving in China [paper]

Abstract

The Great Famine in China (1959-1961) is one of the most dramatic tragedies in history, which may have long term consequences for economic behaviors of Chinese population. In particular, we explore whether it continues to have impacts on household saving choices. Employing a dataset across 122 Chinese counties, we find that the saving rate of rural households in 2002 tend to be higher in counties where the famine was severer; and the impact of the famine is even larger, once its severity is instrumented. Evidence from individual preference data shows that people are more willing to cultivate thrift in children in counties more severely affected. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the Great Famine altered the thrifty attitude of survivors and subsequent generations.

日時

June 2, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Mikhail Golosov (Princeton University)

Fiscal Policy and Debt Management with Incomplete Markets [paper]

Abstract

A Ramsey planner chooses a distorting tax on labor and manages a portfolio of securities in an environment with incomplete markets. We develop a method that uses second order approximations of the policy functions to the planner’s Bellman equation to obtain expressions for the unconditional and conditional moments of debt and taxes in closed form such as the mean and variance of the invariant distribution as well as the speed of mean reversion. Using this, we establish that asymptotically the planner’s portfolio minimizes an appropriately defined measure of fiscal risk. Our analytic expressions that approximate moments of the invariant distribution can be readily applied to data recording the primary government deficit, aggregate consumption, and returns on traded securities. Applying our theory to U.S. data, we find that an optimal target debt level is negative but close to zero, that the invariant distribution of debt is very dispersed, and that mean reversion is slow.

日時

June 9, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

北尾早霧 (Sagiri Kitao) (Keio University)

Policy Uncertainty and the Cost of Delaying Reform: A Case of Aging Japan [paper]

Abstract

In an economy with aging demographics and a generous pay-as-you-go social secu- rity system established decades ago, reform to reduce benefits is inevitable without a major increase in taxes. Often times, however, there is uncertainty about the timing and structure of reform. This paper explicitly models policy uncertainty associated with a social security system in an aging economy and quantifies eco- nomic and welfare effects of uncertainty as well as costs of delaying reform. Using the case of Japan, that faces the severest demographic and fiscal challenges, we show that uncertainty can significantly affect economic activities and welfare. De- laying reform or reducing the scope of it involves a sizeable welfare tradeoff across generations, in which middle to old-aged individuals gain the most at the cost of young and future generations.

日時

June 16, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

辻山仁志 (Hitoshi Tsujiyama) (Goethe University Frankfurt)

A General Equilibrium Approach to Decomposing the Wage Inequality (joint with Manuel Macera)

Abstract

 

日時

June 23, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Alexander Monge-Naranjo (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

TBA

Abstract

 

日時

June 24, 2016 (金 Friday)16:50-18:35

応用統計ワークショップと共催、※曜日に注意

※Presentation in Japanese

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

長谷川秀司 (内閣府)

国民経済計算の新基準「2008SNA」への移行について

※2008SNA移行に関する説明会

Abstract 今年末、我が国の国民経済計算(JSNA)は、16年ぶりに準拠する国際基準を変更 し、「1993年SNA」から「2008SNA」に移行する予定である。  「2008SNA」では、「ニューエコノミー」の展開、グローバリゼーション、金融市 場の発展等近年の経済・金融環境の変化を織り込んだ各種の概念・範囲の変更を行っ ている。例えば、企業の研究・開発(R&D)は、従来、生産活動にて中間消費される 扱いだったが、「2008SNA」では知識ストックの蓄積(固定資産の「知的財産生産 物」)と捉え、最終需要の総固定資本形成に計上することになる。また、これまで捕 捉・計上していなかった雇用者ストックオプションが、新たに雇用者報酬や金融資産 に記録される。  ワークショップにおいては、このような「2008SNA」の特徴や基本的な考え方、ま たGDP等マクロ経済の各集計値への影響のイメージについて説明し、統計ユーザーの 利便性の向上に資することを目指したい。

日時

June 30, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Damiano Sandri (International Monetary Fund)

Dealing with Systemic Sovereign Debt Crises: Fiscal Consolidation, Bail-ins or Official Transfers? [PDF]

Abstract

The paper presents a tractable model to understand how international financial institutions (IFIs) should deal with the sovereign debt crisis of a systemic country, in which case private creditors' bail-ins entail international spillovers. In particular, we solve for the optimal combination between fiscal consolidation, bail-ins, and official transfers to restore debt sustainability. For non-systemic countries, only fiscal consolidation and bail-ins should be used, based on an ex-post assessment of their relative costs. Systemic crises raise significant new challenges. First, to limit bail-ins without requiring excessive fiscal consolidation, IFIs should provide highly systemic countries with official transfers. Second, to contain the moral hazard consequences of systemic bail-ins and official transfers, IFIs should operate under commitment by following a predetermined crisis-resolution framework that considers also the ex-ante costs of each nancing tool.

日時

July 7, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

北野重人 (Shigeto Kitano) (Kobe University)

Capital Controls and Financial Frictions in a Small Open Economy

Abstract

We develop a small open economy model with financial frictions between domestic banks and foreign investors, and examine the welfare-improving effect of capital controls under different degrees of financial frictions. We show that as the degree of financial frictions is higher, the welfare-improving effect of capital controls is larger. The monotonic relationship between the degree of financial frictions and the welfare-improving effect of capital controls is robust for varying degrees of country premium, home bias in goods, and trade elasticity. Comparing a "liability dollarization" economy to one without "liability dollarization," we also find that the welfare-improving effect of capital controls is larger in the presence of "liability dollarization."