Macroeconomics Workshop 2011

※ 2013年3月19日現在の予定です。

※授業時間が16:40-18:20に変更いたしましたのでご注意下さい。※

本年度終了分：

日時	April 5, 2012(Thursday) 16:40-18:20 ※Microworkshop,UTIPE Distinguished Research Seminar Series funded by Global 30と共催
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	Doh-Shin Jeon (Toulouse School of Economics) Reputation as an Entry Barrier in the Credit Rating Industry (joint with Stefano Lovo)
Abstract	We study competition between an incumbent Credit Rating Agency (CRA) and a sequence of entrant CRAs that are potentially more e¤ective but whose ability in appraising default risk is unproven when they enter the market. We show that free entry competition fails to select the most competent CRA as long as two conditions are met. First, investors and issuers trust the incumbent CRA to provide a sincere, although imperfect, assessment. Second, CRAs cannot charge higher fees for low rating than for high rating. Then, a rather incompetent CRA can dominate the market without concerns about entry. We derive policy implications.

日時
April 12, 2012(Thursday) 16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
Kalin　Nikolov (European Central Bank)

A Model of Borrower Reputation as Intangible Collateral

Abstract
In this paper, we build a framework which can generate endogenous fluctuations in down-payment requirements on capital goods in an otherwise standard Kiyotaki-Moore collateral amplification model. We consider an environment, in which savers can keep their anonymity but borrowers cannot. This allows lenders to punish defaulting borrowers by excluding them from future borrowing. We show how the possibility of such market exclusion can lead to the emergence of intangible collateral in equilibrium alongside the tangible collateral which is usually studied in the literature. Fluctuations in the value of intangible collateral are isomorphic to fluctuations in the amount of borrowing firms can secure against the value of their tangible assets. The presence of intangible collateral increases the amplification of business cycle fluctuations relative to the standard Kiyotaki-Moore (1997) model.

日時	April 12, 2012(Thursday) 16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	Kalin　Nikolov (European Central Bank) A Model of Borrower Reputation as Intangible Collateral
Abstract	In this paper, we build a framework which can generate endogenous fluctuations in down-payment requirements on capital goods in an otherwise standard Kiyotaki-Moore collateral amplification model. We consider an environment, in which savers can keep their anonymity but borrowers cannot. This allows lenders to punish defaulting borrowers by excluding them from future borrowing. We show how the possibility of such market exclusion can lead to the emergence of intangible collateral in equilibrium alongside the tangible collateral which is usually studied in the literature. Fluctuations in the value of intangible collateral are isomorphic to fluctuations in the amount of borrowing firms can secure against the value of their tangible assets. The presence of intangible collateral increases the amplification of business cycle fluctuations relative to the standard Kiyotaki-Moore (1997) model.

日時
April 19, 2012(Thursday) 16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
渡辺努 (Tsutomu Watanabe) (University of Tokyo)

Detecting Real Estate Bubbles [paper 1] [paper 2]

Abstract
[paper 1]

How can we detect real estate bubbles? In this paper, we propose making use of information on the cross-sectional dispersion of real estate prices. During bubble periods, prices tend to go up considerably for some properties, but less so for others, so that price inequality across properties increases. In other words, a key characteristic of real estate bubbles is not the rapid price hike itself but a rise in price dispersion. Given this, the purpose of this paper is to examine whether developments in the dispersion in real estate prices can be used to detect bubbles in property markets as they arise, using data from Japan and the U.S. First, we show that the land price distribution in Tokyo had a power-law tail during the bubble period in the late 1980s, while it was very close to a lognormal before and after the bubble period. Second, in the U.S. data we find that the tail of the house price distribution tends to be heavier in those states which experienced a housing bubble. We also provide evidence suggesting that the power-law tail observed during bubble periods arises due to the lack of price arbitrage across regions.

[paper 2]

Is the cross-sectional distribution of house prices close to a (log)normal distribution, as is often assumed in empirical studies on house price indexes? How does the distribution evolve over time? To address these questions, we investigate the cross-sectional distribution of house prices in the Greater Tokyo Area for the period 1986 to 2009. We find that sizeadjusted house prices follow a lognormal distribution except for the period of the housing bubble and its collapse in Tokyo, for which the price distribution has a substantially heavier right tail than that of a lognormal distribution. In addition, we find that, during the bubble era, the sharp price movements were concentrated in particular areas, and this spatial heterogeneity is the source of the fat upper tail. These findings suggest that the shape of the size-adjusted price distribution, especially the shape of the tail part, may contain information useful for the detection of housing bubbles. Specifically, the presence of a bubble can be safely ruled out if recent price observations are found to follow a lognormal distribution. On the other hand, if there are many outliers, especially near the upper tail, this may indicate the presence of a bubble, since such price observations are unlikely to occur if they follow a lognormal distribution. This method of identifying bubbles is quite different from conventional ones based on aggregate measures of housing prices, and therefore should be a useful tool to supplement existing methods.

日時	April 19, 2012(Thursday) 16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	渡辺努 (Tsutomu Watanabe) (University of Tokyo) Detecting Real Estate Bubbles [paper 1] [paper 2]
Abstract	[paper 1] How can we detect real estate bubbles? In this paper, we propose making use of information on the cross-sectional dispersion of real estate prices. During bubble periods, prices tend to go up considerably for some properties, but less so for others, so that price inequality across properties increases. In other words, a key characteristic of real estate bubbles is not the rapid price hike itself but a rise in price dispersion. Given this, the purpose of this paper is to examine whether developments in the dispersion in real estate prices can be used to detect bubbles in property markets as they arise, using data from Japan and the U.S. First, we show that the land price distribution in Tokyo had a power-law tail during the bubble period in the late 1980s, while it was very close to a lognormal before and after the bubble period. Second, in the U.S. data we find that the tail of the house price distribution tends to be heavier in those states which experienced a housing bubble. We also provide evidence suggesting that the power-law tail observed during bubble periods arises due to the lack of price arbitrage across regions. [paper 2] Is the cross-sectional distribution of house prices close to a (log)normal distribution, as is often assumed in empirical studies on house price indexes? How does the distribution evolve over time? To address these questions, we investigate the cross-sectional distribution of house prices in the Greater Tokyo Area for the period 1986 to 2009. We find that sizeadjusted house prices follow a lognormal distribution except for the period of the housing bubble and its collapse in Tokyo, for which the price distribution has a substantially heavier right tail than that of a lognormal distribution. In addition, we find that, during the bubble era, the sharp price movements were concentrated in particular areas, and this spatial heterogeneity is the source of the fat upper tail. These findings suggest that the shape of the size-adjusted price distribution, especially the shape of the tail part, may contain information useful for the detection of housing bubbles. Specifically, the presence of a bubble can be safely ruled out if recent price observations are found to follow a lognormal distribution. On the other hand, if there are many outliers, especially near the upper tail, this may indicate the presence of a bubble, since such price observations are unlikely to occur if they follow a lognormal distribution. This method of identifying bubbles is quite different from conventional ones based on aggregate measures of housing prices, and therefore should be a useful tool to supplement existing methods.

日時
April 26, 2012(Thursday) 16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
内藤久裕 (Hisahiro Naito) (University of Tsukuba)

Pareto-improving Immigration in the Presence of the Social Security [PDF]

Abstract
This paper qualitatively and quantitatively analyzes the welfare effect of accepting immigrants in the presence of a pay-as-you-go social security system. First, it demonstrates that if there are inter-generational government transfers from the young to the old in the sense that the marginal product of labor of a young individual is greater than what he or she receives, including publicly provided private good, accepting immigrants Pareto-improves welfare. Second, the paper shows that if there are inter-generational government transfers in the sense defined above, the government can achieve a path that leads to the golden rule level of capital stock per capita within a finite time in a Pareto-improving way by accepting immigrants while simultaneously using the surplus of the government budget for the government saving and by adjusting the wage tax and the capital income tax. Third, this paper presents how those taxes should be adjusted when immigrants are accepted. Fourth, using the computational overlapping generation model developed by Auerbach and Kotlikoff (1987), I simulate the model economy and calculate years needed to reach the golden rule level of capital stock per capita and the present discounted value (PDV) of the Pareto-improving welfare gain obtained by increasing immigrants. In this simulation, I consider three scenarios of accepting immigrants. In the most moderate case, the immigrant/native ratio (INR) starts from 15.5 percent, reaches 25.5 percent at 80th year and it remain at 25.5 percent in all later years. My simulation shows that (1) in all cases considered, all cohorts are Pareto-improved,(2) as the share of the surplus for the government saving becomes higher, the economy reaches the golden rule earlier, (3) if the share of the surplus for the government saving is greater than or equal to 70 percent, the economy reaches the golden rule level between 130 years in a Pareto-improving way, (4) the PDV of the Pareto-improving welfare gain amounts to 19 to 26 percent of the initial GDP. In addition, I conducted robustness checks of my results by changing the values of several parameters such as the replacement rate, the initial government debt level, immigrant earning level and preference parameters. In those robustness checks, I find that the magnitude of the welfare gain does not change for the reasonable ranges of parameter values. All results (both theoretical and computational) indicate that the economic effect of accepting immigrants is not trivial.

日時	April 26, 2012(Thursday) 16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	内藤久裕 (Hisahiro Naito) (University of Tsukuba) Pareto-improving Immigration in the Presence of the Social Security [PDF]
Abstract	This paper qualitatively and quantitatively analyzes the welfare effect of accepting immigrants in the presence of a pay-as-you-go social security system. First, it demonstrates that if there are inter-generational government transfers from the young to the old in the sense that the marginal product of labor of a young individual is greater than what he or she receives, including publicly provided private good, accepting immigrants Pareto-improves welfare. Second, the paper shows that if there are inter-generational government transfers in the sense defined above, the government can achieve a path that leads to the golden rule level of capital stock per capita within a finite time in a Pareto-improving way by accepting immigrants while simultaneously using the surplus of the government budget for the government saving and by adjusting the wage tax and the capital income tax. Third, this paper presents how those taxes should be adjusted when immigrants are accepted. Fourth, using the computational overlapping generation model developed by Auerbach and Kotlikoff (1987), I simulate the model economy and calculate years needed to reach the golden rule level of capital stock per capita and the present discounted value (PDV) of the Pareto-improving welfare gain obtained by increasing immigrants. In this simulation, I consider three scenarios of accepting immigrants. In the most moderate case, the immigrant/native ratio (INR) starts from 15.5 percent, reaches 25.5 percent at 80th year and it remain at 25.5 percent in all later years. My simulation shows that (1) in all cases considered, all cohorts are Pareto-improved,(2) as the share of the surplus for the government saving becomes higher, the economy reaches the golden rule earlier, (3) if the share of the surplus for the government saving is greater than or equal to 70 percent, the economy reaches the golden rule level between 130 years in a Pareto-improving way, (4) the PDV of the Pareto-improving welfare gain amounts to 19 to 26 percent of the initial GDP. In addition, I conducted robustness checks of my results by changing the values of several parameters such as the replacement rate, the initial government debt level, immigrant earning level and preference parameters. In those robustness checks, I find that the magnitude of the welfare gain does not change for the reasonable ranges of parameter values. All results (both theoretical and computational) indicate that the economic effect of accepting immigrants is not trivial.

日時
May 10, 2012(Thursday) 16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
小野有人 (Arito Ono)　（みずほ総合研究所 (Mizuho Research Institute)）

Are Lending Relationships Beneficial or Harmful for Public Credit Guarantees? Evidence from Japan's Emergency Credit Guarantee Program (joint with Iichiro Uesugi and Yukihiro Yasuda) [PDF]

Abstract
This paper examines the effectiveness of Japan's Emergency Credit Guarantee (ECG) program set up during the financial turmoil following the failure of Lehman Brothers, in increasing credit availability and improving the ex-post performance of small businesses. In particular, using a unique firm-bank matched dataset, the paper examines whether lending relationships enhanced or dampened the effects of the ECG program. It is found that the ECG program significantly improved credit availability for firms using the program. However, when it is a relationship lender (main bank) that extends an ECG loan, the increased availability is partially, if not completely, offset by a decrease in non-ECG loans by the same bank. Further, propensity score matching estimations show that the ex-post performance of firms that received ECG loans from the main bank deteriorates more than that of firms that received non-ECG loans. We do not find such loan "substitution" or performance "deterioration" effects when a non-main bank extends ECG loans. Our findings suggest that close firm-bank relationships may have perverse effects on the efficacy of public credit guarantees.

日時	May 10, 2012(Thursday) 16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	小野有人 (Arito Ono)　（みずほ総合研究所 (Mizuho Research Institute)） Are Lending Relationships Beneficial or Harmful for Public Credit Guarantees? Evidence from Japan's Emergency Credit Guarantee Program (joint with Iichiro Uesugi and Yukihiro Yasuda) [PDF]
Abstract	This paper examines the effectiveness of Japan's Emergency Credit Guarantee (ECG) program set up during the financial turmoil following the failure of Lehman Brothers, in increasing credit availability and improving the ex-post performance of small businesses. In particular, using a unique firm-bank matched dataset, the paper examines whether lending relationships enhanced or dampened the effects of the ECG program. It is found that the ECG program significantly improved credit availability for firms using the program. However, when it is a relationship lender (main bank) that extends an ECG loan, the increased availability is partially, if not completely, offset by a decrease in non-ECG loans by the same bank. Further, propensity score matching estimations show that the ex-post performance of firms that received ECG loans from the main bank deteriorates more than that of firms that received non-ECG loans. We do not find such loan "substitution" or performance "deterioration" effects when a non-main bank extends ECG loans. Our findings suggest that close firm-bank relationships may have perverse effects on the efficacy of public credit guarantees.

日時
May 17, 2012(Thursday) 16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
細野薫 (Kaoru Hosono)　（Gakushuin University）

Financial Frictions, Misallocation, and Plant-Size Distribution (joint with Miho Takizawa) [PDF]

Abstract
We quantify the effects of financial frictions on the loss of aggregate productivity and plant-size distribution through resource misallocation. To this aim, we first measure the distortions (or wedges) on capital and output by applying the static monopolistic competition model to a rich plant-level data set of manufacturers in Japan. Next, we develop a dynamic model of monopolistic competition in which entrepreneurs are subject to productivity shocks and borrowing constraints, but can accumulate savings. Calibrating the dynamic model to match the plant-size distribution of manufacturers in Japan, we find that aggregate total factor productivity (TFP) would be higher by 11.3% if there were no borrowing constraint, which accounts for 48.1% of measured TFP losses caused by capital distortions. Our counterfactual experiments show that as borrowing constraint is relaxed, output becomes more dispersed, which is consistent with the hypothetical plant-size distribution that would be realized without distortions on capital. However, relaxing borrowing constraint would decrease the share of very large plants (top 1%), which is inconsistent with our result from removing distortions on capital. Our results suggest that financial constraint is a significant, but not the sole dominant factor of aggregate productivity loss and plant-size distribution.

日時	May 17, 2012(Thursday) 16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	細野薫 (Kaoru Hosono)　（Gakushuin University） Financial Frictions, Misallocation, and Plant-Size Distribution (joint with Miho Takizawa) [PDF]
Abstract	We quantify the effects of financial frictions on the loss of aggregate productivity and plant-size distribution through resource misallocation. To this aim, we first measure the distortions (or wedges) on capital and output by applying the static monopolistic competition model to a rich plant-level data set of manufacturers in Japan. Next, we develop a dynamic model of monopolistic competition in which entrepreneurs are subject to productivity shocks and borrowing constraints, but can accumulate savings. Calibrating the dynamic model to match the plant-size distribution of manufacturers in Japan, we find that aggregate total factor productivity (TFP) would be higher by 11.3% if there were no borrowing constraint, which accounts for 48.1% of measured TFP losses caused by capital distortions. Our counterfactual experiments show that as borrowing constraint is relaxed, output becomes more dispersed, which is consistent with the hypothetical plant-size distribution that would be realized without distortions on capital. However, relaxing borrowing constraint would decrease the share of very large plants (top 1%), which is inconsistent with our result from removing distortions on capital. Our results suggest that financial constraint is a significant, but not the sole dominant factor of aggregate productivity loss and plant-size distribution.

日時
May 24, 2012(Thursday) 16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
R. Anton Braun　（Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta）

The implications of a greying japan for government policy

Abstract

日時	May 24, 2012(Thursday) 16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	R. Anton Braun　（Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta） The implications of a greying japan for government policy
Abstract

日時
June 4, 2012(Monday) 12:10-13:30 ※日時と場所にご注意ください。

※UTIPE distinguished seminar series funded by Global 30 と共催

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）２階小島コンファレンスルーム
in Koijma Conference Room on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
清滝信宏 (Nobuhiro Kiyotaki ） (Princeton University)

Dynamics of Firms and Trade in General Equilibrium

Abstract
This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model that tries to reconcile the observation that aggregate movements of exports and imports are "disconnected" from real exchange rate movements, while firm-level exports co-move significantly with the real exchange rate. Firms are heterogenous, facing recurrent aggregate and firm-product specific productivity shocks, choose which goods to export, and decide to enter and exit the business endogenously. We calibrate and estimate the model with both aggregate and firm level data from Japan.

日時	June 4, 2012(Monday) 12:10-13:30 ※日時と場所にご注意ください。 ※UTIPE distinguished seminar series funded by Global 30 と共催
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）２階小島コンファレンスルーム in Koijma Conference Room on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	清滝信宏 (Nobuhiro Kiyotaki ） (Princeton University) Dynamics of Firms and Trade in General Equilibrium
Abstract	This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model that tries to reconcile the observation that aggregate movements of exports and imports are "disconnected" from real exchange rate movements, while firm-level exports co-move significantly with the real exchange rate. Firms are heterogenous, facing recurrent aggregate and firm-product specific productivity shocks, choose which goods to export, and decide to enter and exit the business endogenously. We calibrate and estimate the model with both aggregate and firm level data from Japan.

日時
June 7, 2012(Thursday) 16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
Seung Mo Choi (Washington State University)

Trade, Structural Transformation, and Growth (joint with Hwagyun Kim and Xiaohan Ma) [paper]

Abstract
This paper analyzes a highly tractable model of a small open two-sector economy, with endogenous productivity growth in non-agricultural sector. The model quantitatively connects international trade, real GDP growth, and structural transformation from agriculture to non-agriculture, generating "growth miracles". The contributors to growth are learning by doing and accelerated structural transformation, where e¤ects from the latter are quintessential in accounting for the explosive growth patterns observed in newly industrialized economies. Trade policies, relative productivity between agriculture and non-agriculture, and the persistence of structural transformation process jointly a¤ect the growth dynamics after opening.

日時	June 7, 2012(Thursday) 16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	Seung Mo Choi (Washington State University) Trade, Structural Transformation, and Growth (joint with Hwagyun Kim and Xiaohan Ma) [paper]
Abstract	This paper analyzes a highly tractable model of a small open two-sector economy, with endogenous productivity growth in non-agricultural sector. The model quantitatively connects international trade, real GDP growth, and structural transformation from agriculture to non-agriculture, generating "growth miracles". The contributors to growth are learning by doing and accelerated structural transformation, where e¤ects from the latter are quintessential in accounting for the explosive growth patterns observed in newly industrialized economies. Trade policies, relative productivity between agriculture and non-agriculture, and the persistence of structural transformation process jointly a¤ect the growth dynamics after opening.

日時
June 11, 2012(Monday) 16:40-18:20※曜日にご注意下さい。

場所
東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
Kiichi Tokuoka (IMF)

Do Consumers Learn from Their Own　Experiences? [PDF]

Abstract
It is natural to think that a household may learn from its own negative experiences and subsequently increase savings. The implications of such informal learning for the aggregate economy may be quite important, for example, after a sharp increase in unemployment following an economic crisis. This paper tests the hypothesis that Japanese households learn from their experiences of large expenditure and increase their targets for precautionary savings after such experiences. The results imply that households raise their targets for precautionary savings by 5-7 percent of annual income in response to such experiences. Moreover, data are consistent with the argument that targets for savings aect actual savings. Assuming this holds, the results in this paper suggest that consumers may increase their actual savings following a negative nancial experience.

日時	June 11, 2012(Monday) 16:40-18:20※曜日にご注意下さい。
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	Kiichi Tokuoka (IMF) Do Consumers Learn from Their Own　Experiences? [PDF]
Abstract	It is natural to think that a household may learn from its own negative experiences and subsequently increase savings. The implications of such informal learning for the aggregate economy may be quite important, for example, after a sharp increase in unemployment following an economic crisis. This paper tests the hypothesis that Japanese households learn from their experiences of large expenditure and increase their targets for precautionary savings after such experiences. The results imply that households raise their targets for precautionary savings by 5-7 percent of annual income in response to such experiences. Moreover, data are consistent with the argument that targets for savings aect actual savings. Assuming this holds, the results in this paper suggest that consumers may increase their actual savings following a negative nancial experience.

日時
June 14, 2012(Thursday) 16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
阿部修人 (Naohito Abe) (Hitotsubashi University)

The Great East Japan Earthquake and its Short-run Effects on Household Purchasing Behaviors (joint with Chiaki Moriguchi, and Noriko Inakura) [PDF]

Abstract
The powerful earthquake that hit Japan on March 11, 2011, not only devastated the northeastern region but also affected millions of firms and households in the Tokyo metropolitan area and beyond. Although there has been much effort to assess the direct damages caused by the earthquake, few studies have examined its broader economic impacts. In particular, during the weeks following March 11, the media widely reported severe shortages of essential goods, symbolized by empty supermarket shelves, long waiting lines, and quantity restrictions. For many goods, the shortages were demand driven, caused by a sudden increase in consumer demand as households faced much greater future uncertainty after the earthquake, while for some goods the shortages were supply driven, resulting from damaged facilities, disrupted supply chains, or electric power shortages. Even though anecdotal evidence abounds, we know very little about the actual effects of the earthquake on prices and expenditures. Did commodity prices rise in response to the excess demand? To which extent, did consumers engage in hoarding? Did the commodity shortages create any discrepancy between those consumers who were able to stockpile goods and those who could not? In this paper, using high-frequency commodity-level micro panel data, we investigate the effects of the earthquake on commodity prices and household purchasing behaviors in the areas not directly damaged. We find that store-level commodity prices increased surprisingly little after March 11, which implies that the excess demand was resolved mainly through quantity adjustments. Our empirical analysis suggests that, while the average household expenditure on storable goods rose dramatically in response to the earthquake, the households with higher opportunity costs of shopping were more likely to be "rationed out" and did not increase expenditures as much as other households. Our results thus indicate important heterogeneity across households in response to the disaster.

日時	June 14, 2012(Thursday) 16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	阿部修人 (Naohito Abe) (Hitotsubashi University) The Great East Japan Earthquake and its Short-run Effects on Household Purchasing Behaviors (joint with Chiaki Moriguchi, and Noriko Inakura) [PDF]
Abstract	The powerful earthquake that hit Japan on March 11, 2011, not only devastated the northeastern region but also affected millions of firms and households in the Tokyo metropolitan area and beyond. Although there has been much effort to assess the direct damages caused by the earthquake, few studies have examined its broader economic impacts. In particular, during the weeks following March 11, the media widely reported severe shortages of essential goods, symbolized by empty supermarket shelves, long waiting lines, and quantity restrictions. For many goods, the shortages were demand driven, caused by a sudden increase in consumer demand as households faced much greater future uncertainty after the earthquake, while for some goods the shortages were supply driven, resulting from damaged facilities, disrupted supply chains, or electric power shortages. Even though anecdotal evidence abounds, we know very little about the actual effects of the earthquake on prices and expenditures. Did commodity prices rise in response to the excess demand? To which extent, did consumers engage in hoarding? Did the commodity shortages create any discrepancy between those consumers who were able to stockpile goods and those who could not? In this paper, using high-frequency commodity-level micro panel data, we investigate the effects of the earthquake on commodity prices and household purchasing behaviors in the areas not directly damaged. We find that store-level commodity prices increased surprisingly little after March 11, which implies that the excess demand was resolved mainly through quantity adjustments. Our empirical analysis suggests that, while the average household expenditure on storable goods rose dramatically in response to the earthquake, the households with higher opportunity costs of shopping were more likely to be "rationed out" and did not increase expenditures as much as other households. Our results thus indicate important heterogeneity across households in response to the disaster.

日時
June 21, 2012(Thursday) 16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
楡井誠 (Makoto Nirei) (Hitotsubashi University)

Autonomous Fluctuations of Investment and Business Cycles

Abstract
This paper demonstrates endogenous fluctuations of aggregate investments when rm-level investments follow an (S,s) policy and exhibit strategic complementarity. I present a method to characterize the aggregate uctuations that arise from the interaction of the (S,s) policies. A closed-form distribution function of the output growth rate is derived in general environments. I show that the growth rate has a strictly positive variance even when the number of rms tends to infinity if the production exhibits constant returns to scale and the real wage and interest rate are fixed.

日時	June 21, 2012(Thursday) 16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	楡井誠 (Makoto Nirei) (Hitotsubashi University) Autonomous Fluctuations of Investment and Business Cycles
Abstract	This paper demonstrates endogenous fluctuations of aggregate investments when rm-level investments follow an (S,s) policy and exhibit strategic complementarity. I present a method to characterize the aggregate uctuations that arise from the interaction of the (S,s) policies. A closed-form distribution function of the output growth rate is derived in general environments. I show that the growth rate has a strictly positive variance even when the number of rms tends to infinity if the production exhibits constant returns to scale and the real wage and interest rate are fixed.

日時
June 28, 2012(Thursday) 16:20-17:50※時間と場所にご注意ください。

※CARF特別セミナーと共催。

※参加をご希望の方はこちらをご確認のうえお申込下さい。

場所
東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）

2階小島コンファレンスルーム
in Kojima Conference Room on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
Amit Seru (University of Chicago Booth School of Business)

Securitization and Financial Crisis

Abstract
<Speaker's Profile>

Amit Seru is Associate Professor of Finance and Neubauer Faculty Fellow, University of Chicago Booth School of Business. He received M.B.A, University of Delhi, 1998 and Ph. D in Finance, University of Michigan, 2007. His research interests are Financial Intermediation and Regulation, Internal Organization of Firms, R&D and Growth and Performance Evaluation. Along with the paper that he is going to talk about this time titled "Securitization and Financial Crisis ", which covers implications of securitization for lender screening, lender renegotiation and regulatory models.

日時	June 28, 2012(Thursday) 16:20-17:50※時間と場所にご注意ください。 ※CARF特別セミナーと共催。 ※参加をご希望の方はこちらをご確認のうえお申込下さい。
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール） 2階小島コンファレンスルーム in Kojima Conference Room on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	Amit Seru (University of Chicago Booth School of Business) Securitization and Financial Crisis
Abstract	<Speaker's Profile> Amit Seru is Associate Professor of Finance and Neubauer Faculty Fellow, University of Chicago Booth School of Business. He received M.B.A, University of Delhi, 1998 and Ph. D in Finance, University of Michigan, 2007. His research interests are Financial Intermediation and Regulation, Internal Organization of Firms, R&D and Growth and Performance Evaluation. Along with the paper that he is going to talk about this time titled "Securitization and Financial Crisis ", which covers implications of securitization for lender screening, lender renegotiation and regulatory models.

日時
July 4, 2012(Wednesday) 12:00-13:00　 ※日時にご注意ください。

※UTIPE distinguished seminar series funded by Global 30、マクロファイナンス・金融&国際金融ワークショップと共催

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
Francois Gourio (Boston University)

Credit risk and disaster risk [PDF]

Abstract
Standard macroeconomic models imply that credit spreads directly reflect expected losses (the probability of default and the loss in the event of default). In contrast, in the data credit spreads are significantly larger than expected losses, suggestive of an aggregate risk premium. Building on the idea that corporate debt, while safe in normal times, is exposed to economic depressions, this paper embeds a trade-o¤ theory of capital structure into a real business cycle model with a small, time-varying risk of economic disaster. The model replicates the level, volatility and cyclicality of credit spreads, and variation in the corporate bond premium amplifies macroeconomic fluctuations in investment, employment and GDP.

日時	July 4, 2012(Wednesday) 12:00-13:00　 ※日時にご注意ください。 ※UTIPE distinguished seminar series funded by Global 30、マクロファイナンス・金融&国際金融ワークショップと共催
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	Francois Gourio (Boston University) Credit risk and disaster risk [PDF]
Abstract	Standard macroeconomic models imply that credit spreads directly reflect expected losses (the probability of default and the loss in the event of default). In contrast, in the data credit spreads are significantly larger than expected losses, suggestive of an aggregate risk premium. Building on the idea that corporate debt, while safe in normal times, is exposed to economic depressions, this paper embeds a trade-o¤ theory of capital structure into a real business cycle model with a small, time-varying risk of economic disaster. The model replicates the level, volatility and cyclicality of credit spreads, and variation in the corporate bond premium amplifies macroeconomic fluctuations in investment, employment and GDP.

日時
July 12, 2012(Thursday) 16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
Toshihiko Mukoyama (University of Virginia)

Is Labor Supply Important for Business Cycles? (joint with Per Krusell, Richard Rogerson, and Aysegül Sahin) [paper]

Abstract
We build a general equilibrium model that features uninsurable idiosyncratic shocks, search frictions and an operative labor supply choice along the extensive margin. The model is calibrated to match the average levels of gross flows across the three labor market states: employment, unemployment, and non-participation. We use it to study the implications of two kinds of aggregate shocks for the cyclical behavior of labor market aggregates and flows: shocks to search frictions (the rates of job finding and job loss) and shocks to the return on the market activity (any factors affecting aggregate productivity). We find that both kinds of shocks are needed to explain the labor market data, and that an active labor supply channel is key. A model with friction shocks only, calibrated to match unemployment fluctuations, accounts for only a small fraction of employment fluctuations and has counterfactual cyclical predictions for participation.

日時	July 12, 2012(Thursday) 16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	Toshihiko Mukoyama (University of Virginia) Is Labor Supply Important for Business Cycles? (joint with Per Krusell, Richard Rogerson, and Aysegül Sahin) [paper]
Abstract	We build a general equilibrium model that features uninsurable idiosyncratic shocks, search frictions and an operative labor supply choice along the extensive margin. The model is calibrated to match the average levels of gross flows across the three labor market states: employment, unemployment, and non-participation. We use it to study the implications of two kinds of aggregate shocks for the cyclical behavior of labor market aggregates and flows: shocks to search frictions (the rates of job finding and job loss) and shocks to the return on the market activity (any factors affecting aggregate productivity). We find that both kinds of shocks are needed to explain the labor market data, and that an active labor supply channel is key. A model with friction shocks only, calibrated to match unemployment fluctuations, accounts for only a small fraction of employment fluctuations and has counterfactual cyclical predictions for participation.

日時
September 20, 2012 (Thursday) 16:40-18:20
※　会場にご注意ください。

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 3階第3教室
in Lecture Hall No.3 on the 3rd floorof the Economics Research Building [Map]

報告
平口良司 (Ryoji hiraguchi) (Ritsumeikan University)

On a two-sector endogenous growth model with quasi-geometric discounting [PDF]

Abstract
This article studies a two-sector endogenous growth model with quasi-geometric discounting. We first specialize to log utility and derive a recursive equilibrium path and a planner's solution path. We find that if the discount factor is close to 1, the planner's solution welfare-dominates the equilibrium path. Our result contrasts with the results in Krusell, Kuru¸s¸cu, and Smith (Journal of Economic Theory, 2002) who study the Ramsey model to show that the competitive economy always outperforms the planned economy. We next show that if the utility function demonstrates constant relative risk aversion, there can be multiple balanced growth paths.

日時	September 20, 2012 (Thursday) 16:40-18:20 ※　会場にご注意ください。
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟 3階第3教室 in Lecture Hall No.3 on the 3rd floorof the Economics Research Building [Map]
報告	平口良司 (Ryoji hiraguchi) (Ritsumeikan University) On a two-sector endogenous growth model with quasi-geometric discounting [PDF]
Abstract	This article studies a two-sector endogenous growth model with quasi-geometric discounting. We first specialize to log utility and derive a recursive equilibrium path and a planner's solution path. We find that if the discount factor is close to 1, the planner's solution welfare-dominates the equilibrium path. Our result contrasts with the results in Krusell, Kuru¸s¸cu, and Smith (Journal of Economic Theory, 2002) who study the Ramsey model to show that the competitive economy always outperforms the planned economy. We next show that if the utility function demonstrates constant relative risk aversion, there can be multiple balanced growth paths.

日時
October 4, 2012 (Thursday) 16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
戸村　肇 (Hajime Tomura) (Hokkaido University)

On Existence and Fragility of Repo Markets [PDF]

Abstract
This paper presents a model of an over-the-counter bond market in which bond dealers and cash investors arrange repurchase agreements (repos) endogenously. If cash investors buy bonds to store their cash, then they suffer an endogenous bond-liquidation cost because they must sell their bonds by the scheduled times of their cash payments. This cost provides incentive for both dealers and cash investors to arrange repos with endogenous margins. As part of multiple equilibria, the bond-liquidation cost also gives rise to another equilibrium in which cash investors stop entering into repos all at once. Credit market interventions block this equilibrium.

日時	October 4, 2012 (Thursday) 16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	戸村　肇 (Hajime Tomura) (Hokkaido University) On Existence and Fragility of Repo Markets [PDF]
Abstract	This paper presents a model of an over-the-counter bond market in which bond dealers and cash investors arrange repurchase agreements (repos) endogenously. If cash investors buy bonds to store their cash, then they suffer an endogenous bond-liquidation cost because they must sell their bonds by the scheduled times of their cash payments. This cost provides incentive for both dealers and cash investors to arrange repos with endogenous margins. As part of multiple equilibria, the bond-liquidation cost also gives rise to another equilibrium in which cash investors stop entering into repos all at once. Credit market interventions block this equilibrium.

日時
October 12, 2012 (Friday) 16:40-18:20 ※Schedule Changed, 曜日にご注意ください。

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
Césaire Meh (Bank of Canada)

Bank Leverage Regulation and Macroeconomic Dynamics

Abstract

日時	October 12, 2012 (Friday) 16:40-18:20 ※Schedule Changed, 曜日にご注意ください。
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	Césaire Meh (Bank of Canada) Bank Leverage Regulation and Macroeconomic Dynamics
Abstract

日時
October 18, 2012 (Thursday) 16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
Julen Esteban-Pretel (GRIPS)

The Labor Market Effects of Introducing Unemployment Benefits in an Economy with High Informality (joint with Mariano Bosch) [PDF]

Abstract
Unemployment benefit systems are non-existent in many developing economies. Introducing such programs in these economies poses many challenges, which is partly due to the high level of informality in their labor markets. In this paper we study the consequences on the labor market of implementing an unemployment benefit system in economies with large informal sectors and high flows of workers between formality and informality. We build a search and matching model with endogenous destruction, on-the-job search and inter-sectoral flows, where agents in the economy decide optimally whether or not to formalize jobs. We calibrate the model for Mexico and show that the introduction of an unemployment subsidy system, where workers contribute during formal employment and collect benefits when they lose the job, can deliver an increase in formality in the economy while also producing small increases in unemployment. The exact impact of incorporating such benefits depends on the relative strength of two opposing effects: the generosity of the benefits and the level of the contributions that finance those benefits. We also show important policy complementarities with other interventions in the labor market. In particular, combining the unemployment benefit program with policies that reduce the cost of formality, such as lower firing costs or taxes, can produce decreases in informality and lower impacts on unemployment than when the subsidy program is applied in isolation.

日時	October 18, 2012 (Thursday) 16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	Julen Esteban-Pretel (GRIPS) The Labor Market Effects of Introducing Unemployment Benefits in an Economy with High Informality (joint with Mariano Bosch) [PDF]
Abstract	Unemployment benefit systems are non-existent in many developing economies. Introducing such programs in these economies poses many challenges, which is partly due to the high level of informality in their labor markets. In this paper we study the consequences on the labor market of implementing an unemployment benefit system in economies with large informal sectors and high flows of workers between formality and informality. We build a search and matching model with endogenous destruction, on-the-job search and inter-sectoral flows, where agents in the economy decide optimally whether or not to formalize jobs. We calibrate the model for Mexico and show that the introduction of an unemployment subsidy system, where workers contribute during formal employment and collect benefits when they lose the job, can deliver an increase in formality in the economy while also producing small increases in unemployment. The exact impact of incorporating such benefits depends on the relative strength of two opposing effects: the generosity of the benefits and the level of the contributions that finance those benefits. We also show important policy complementarities with other interventions in the labor market. In particular, combining the unemployment benefit program with policies that reduce the cost of formality, such as lower firing costs or taxes, can produce decreases in informality and lower impacts on unemployment than when the subsidy program is applied in isolation.

日時
October 25, 2012 (Thursday) 16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
柴本昌彦 (Masahiko Shibamoto) (Kobe University)

The Impacts of Monetary Policy Decisions and Communication on Financial Markets in a Low Interest Rate Environment: Evidence from Japan

Abstract
This study investigates the effects of Japanese monetary policy on asset prices in a low interest rate environment. I use a high-frequency data on yen/dollar exchange rate, Japanese government bond yield futures and stock price futures, and derive identification restrictions to estimate the impacts of monetary policy news that relate to the decision and to the communication motivated by the institutional feature that the Bank of Japan announces and explains policy decisions at two different points in time during every policy meeting day. I test the validity of these restrictions to examine whether these impacts are adequately captured by a single factor or two factors which have a structural interpretation as a `policy decision' factor and a `communication' factor, and find that two factors are required. I also find that policy decisions have persistent impacts on long-term bond yields, but very temporary and less impacts on exchange rate and stock prices. On the other hand, communication has significant impacts on exchange rate and stock prices, although it has less impacts on long-term bond yields.

日時	October 25, 2012 (Thursday) 16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	柴本昌彦 (Masahiko Shibamoto) (Kobe University) The Impacts of Monetary Policy Decisions and Communication on Financial Markets in a Low Interest Rate Environment: Evidence from Japan
Abstract	This study investigates the effects of Japanese monetary policy on asset prices in a low interest rate environment. I use a high-frequency data on yen/dollar exchange rate, Japanese government bond yield futures and stock price futures, and derive identification restrictions to estimate the impacts of monetary policy news that relate to the decision and to the communication motivated by the institutional feature that the Bank of Japan announces and explains policy decisions at two different points in time during every policy meeting day. I test the validity of these restrictions to examine whether these impacts are adequately captured by a single factor or two factors which have a structural interpretation as a `policy decision' factor and a `communication' factor, and find that two factors are required. I also find that policy decisions have persistent impacts on long-term bond yields, but very temporary and less impacts on exchange rate and stock prices. On the other hand, communication has significant impacts on exchange rate and stock prices, although it has less impacts on long-term bond yields.

日時
November 1, 2012 (Thursday) 16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
萩原景子 (Akiko Terada-Hagiwara) (Asian Development Bank)

Have Filipino Households Become Less　Prudent? [PDF]

Abstract
Throughout the 2000s, the average household saving rate in the Philippines declined sharply. This　article explains why households' consumption growth has been higher than income growth during this period.　Tracing cohorts shows that saving declined across all demographic groups. A test that provides the strength of　the precautionary saving motive yields a plausible explanation that households have become financially　constrained and less prudent in recent years. This article argues that these patterns are best explained by the　extended coverage of the social security system particularly to informal sector employees during the 1990s in　the Philippines.

日時	November 1, 2012 (Thursday) 16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	萩原景子 (Akiko Terada-Hagiwara) (Asian Development Bank) Have Filipino Households Become Less　Prudent? [PDF]
Abstract	Throughout the 2000s, the average household saving rate in the Philippines declined sharply. This　article explains why households' consumption growth has been higher than income growth during this period.　Tracing cohorts shows that saving declined across all demographic groups. A test that provides the strength of　the precautionary saving motive yields a plausible explanation that households have become financially　constrained and less prudent in recent years. This article argues that these patterns are best explained by the　extended coverage of the social security system particularly to informal sector employees during the 1990s in　the Philippines.

日時
November 8, 2012 (Thursday) 16:40-18:20

※UTIPE Distinguished Research Seminar Series funded by Global 30と共催

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
Jang-Ting Guo (University of Carifornia Riverside)

News-Driven Business Cycles and Increasing Returns [PDF1] [PDF2]

Abstract
1) Eusepi (2009, International Journal of Economic Theory 5, pp. 9-23) analytically finds that a one-sector real business cycle model may exhibit positive co-movement between consumption and investment when the equilibrium wage-hours locus is positively-sloped and steeper than the household’s labor supply curve. However, we show that this condition does not imply expectations-driven business cycles will emerge in Eusepi’s model. Specifically, a positive news shock about future productivity improvement leads to an aggregate recession whereby output, employment, consumption and investment all fall in the announcement period.

2) We show that an otherwise standard one-sector real business cycle model with variable capital utilization and mild increasing returns-to-scale is able to generate qualitatively as well as quantitatively realistic aggregate fluctuations driven by news shocks to future consumption demand. In sharp contrast to many studies in the existing expectations-driven business cycle literature, our results do not rely on non-separable preference or investment adjustment costs.

日時	November 8, 2012 (Thursday) 16:40-18:20 ※UTIPE Distinguished Research Seminar Series funded by Global 30と共催
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	Jang-Ting Guo (University of Carifornia Riverside) News-Driven Business Cycles and Increasing Returns [PDF1] [PDF2]
Abstract	1) Eusepi (2009, International Journal of Economic Theory 5, pp. 9-23) analytically finds that a one-sector real business cycle model may exhibit positive co-movement between consumption and investment when the equilibrium wage-hours locus is positively-sloped and steeper than the household’s labor supply curve. However, we show that this condition does not imply expectations-driven business cycles will emerge in Eusepi’s model. Specifically, a positive news shock about future productivity improvement leads to an aggregate recession whereby output, employment, consumption and investment all fall in the announcement period. 2) We show that an otherwise standard one-sector real business cycle model with variable capital utilization and mild increasing returns-to-scale is able to generate qualitatively as well as quantitatively realistic aggregate fluctuations driven by news shocks to future consumption demand. In sharp contrast to many studies in the existing expectations-driven business cycle literature, our results do not rely on non-separable preference or investment adjustment costs.

日時
November 22, 2012 (Thursday) 16:40-18:20

※Microworkshopと共催

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
西村幸浩 (Yukihiro Nishimura) (Osaka University)

Interregional Tax Competition, Environmental Standards, and the Direction of Strategic Delegation (joint with Kimiko Terai) [PDF]

Abstract
The phenomenon of strategic voting (strategic delegation) is well acknowledged in different contexts. Citizens including median voters deliberately choose a delegate with different preferences from their own to pursue strategic advantages. In the context of regions competing for mobile capital, this paper explores the outcome of non-cooperative decision making by elected politicians. The formal model is an augmented version of the conventional tax-competition framework by Zodrow and Mieszkowski (1986), Wilson (1986) and Wildasin (1988) in which regions use the environmental standards subject to the trade-off between improving the quality of life and decreasing the capital-productivity. The looser environmental standard can be used to attract mobile factor capital in addition to (or substitution to) lowering the capital taxes. Our model allows illuminating various dimensions of the political tensions and economic effects, including (i) the trade-off between tax-incentives and redistribution under endogenous wage and the return of capital and (ii) the interaction between the capital taxes, the environmental standards and interregional capital flow, where the strategic delegation through interregional dependence can result in either policy-divergence or policy-convergence. We showed the following: (i) When regions are identical, the political effect for income redistribution and the strategic delegation quantitatively dominate the force of the conventional tax-competition effect towards the lower tax rates. However, when the marginal productivity of the looser environmental standards is sufficiently high relative to the environmental damage, the strategic delegation goes towards ``political race to the bottom'' in which regional policies are delegated to wealthier policymakers who aim to lower the equilibrium capital taxes. (ii) We also examined various types of asymmetries across regions, such as capital productivities, impacts of environmental standards, and population sizes, as well as the median voter's types. It turns out that the extent of interregional divergence in capital employment crucially depends on what is asymmetric. For example, we show that the region with high capital productivity sets a higher tax rate relative to the self-representation case, aiming to gain higher tax revenue from the foreigners. The opposite is observed in the low-productivity region, so that the so-called tax-exporting effect is strengthened by the strategic delegation. We also examine the effect of interregional cooperation in environmental actions. In a situation where regions cooperatively decide on the environmental standards but taxes on capital are still decided noncooperatively, tighter environmental regulation may be complemented by more intensive tax competition under the cooperative scenario.

日時	November 22, 2012 (Thursday) 16:40-18:20 ※Microworkshopと共催
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	西村幸浩 (Yukihiro Nishimura) (Osaka University) Interregional Tax Competition, Environmental Standards, and the Direction of Strategic Delegation (joint with Kimiko Terai) [PDF]
Abstract	The phenomenon of strategic voting (strategic delegation) is well acknowledged in different contexts. Citizens including median voters deliberately choose a delegate with different preferences from their own to pursue strategic advantages. In the context of regions competing for mobile capital, this paper explores the outcome of non-cooperative decision making by elected politicians. The formal model is an augmented version of the conventional tax-competition framework by Zodrow and Mieszkowski (1986), Wilson (1986) and Wildasin (1988) in which regions use the environmental standards subject to the trade-off between improving the quality of life and decreasing the capital-productivity. The looser environmental standard can be used to attract mobile factor capital in addition to (or substitution to) lowering the capital taxes. Our model allows illuminating various dimensions of the political tensions and economic effects, including (i) the trade-off between tax-incentives and redistribution under endogenous wage and the return of capital and (ii) the interaction between the capital taxes, the environmental standards and interregional capital flow, where the strategic delegation through interregional dependence can result in either policy-divergence or policy-convergence. We showed the following: (i) When regions are identical, the political effect for income redistribution and the strategic delegation quantitatively dominate the force of the conventional tax-competition effect towards the lower tax rates. However, when the marginal productivity of the looser environmental standards is sufficiently high relative to the environmental damage, the strategic delegation goes towards ``political race to the bottom'' in which regional policies are delegated to wealthier policymakers who aim to lower the equilibrium capital taxes. (ii) We also examined various types of asymmetries across regions, such as capital productivities, impacts of environmental standards, and population sizes, as well as the median voter's types. It turns out that the extent of interregional divergence in capital employment crucially depends on what is asymmetric. For example, we show that the region with high capital productivity sets a higher tax rate relative to the self-representation case, aiming to gain higher tax revenue from the foreigners. The opposite is observed in the low-productivity region, so that the so-called tax-exporting effect is strengthened by the strategic delegation. We also examine the effect of interregional cooperation in environmental actions. In a situation where regions cooperatively decide on the environmental standards but taxes on capital are still decided noncooperatively, tighter environmental regulation may be complemented by more intensive tax competition under the cooperative scenario.

日時
November 29, 2012 (Thursday) 16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
堀井亮 (Ryo Horii) (Tohoku University)

Non-Exponential Theory of Sustained Growth

Abstract
This paper develops a theory of sustained growth that does not depend on the exponential growth of any variable. Existing theories of endogenous growth explain long-term growth in terms of either the exponential growth of physical output, improvements of quality of goods in an exponential rate, or the exponential growth in the variety of goods. However, to obtain those results, those theories typically need to assume some knife-edge properties on the form of positive spillover effects. Using a variety expansion model with, this paper shows that those assumptions can be relaxed once we explicitly consider different vintages of goods where older goods are priced lower and a non-CES utility function where the marginal utility for each good falls rapidly as its consumption increases to a certain level. In this setting, we derive an asymptotically steady-state equilibrium in which the rate of GDP growth and the number of new goods introduced per unit time, instead of the growth rate of the number of goods, are asymptotically constant. It is also found that changes that are previously considered to have only level effects actually affect the long-term growth rate.

日時	November 29, 2012 (Thursday) 16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	堀井亮 (Ryo Horii) (Tohoku University) Non-Exponential Theory of Sustained Growth
Abstract	This paper develops a theory of sustained growth that does not depend on the exponential growth of any variable. Existing theories of endogenous growth explain long-term growth in terms of either the exponential growth of physical output, improvements of quality of goods in an exponential rate, or the exponential growth in the variety of goods. However, to obtain those results, those theories typically need to assume some knife-edge properties on the form of positive spillover effects. Using a variety expansion model with, this paper shows that those assumptions can be relaxed once we explicitly consider different vintages of goods where older goods are priced lower and a non-CES utility function where the marginal utility for each good falls rapidly as its consumption increases to a certain level. In this setting, we derive an asymptotically steady-state equilibrium in which the rate of GDP growth and the number of new goods introduced per unit time, instead of the growth rate of the number of goods, are asymptotically constant. It is also found that changes that are previously considered to have only level effects actually affect the long-term growth rate.

日時
December 6, 2012 (Thursday) 16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
髙橋修平 (Shuhei Takahashi) (Kyoto University)

Time-Varying Wage Risk, Incomplete Markets, and Business Cycles

Abstract
When driven by shocks to total factor productivity, perfectly competitive labor market models generate a counterfactually strong comovement of employment and average labor productivity (output per labor hour). In an environment where individuals face idiosyncratic earnings risk when making employment choices, I show that the key to resolving this productivity puzzle is cyclical variation in idiosyncratic wage risk. In the absence of full insurance, risk fluctuations have different effects on the labor supply of individuals with low and high productivity and produce a negative correlation between hours worked and productivity at the aggregate level. Specifically, a rise in wage risk initially increases the fraction of low-productivity individuals who work. Later, this fraction decreases, whereas more individuals with high productivity elect to work. In equilibrium, these shifts in labor supply first increase and then reduce employment. Labor productivity initially falls and later rises. I identify time variation in idiosyncratic wage risk using the cross-sectional dispersion of wage innovations in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). My estimate is that the standard deviation of fluctuations in risk is 4.4\% annually. When introduced alongside shocks to total factor productivity, the varying-risk model reproduces the weakly negative correlation between hours worked and labor productivity found in the US data (--0.38 in the model compared with --0.32 in the data). As shocks to total factor productivity primarily shift labor demand, in the absence of fluctuations in wage risk, the model generates a strong, positive correlation of 0.83.

日時	December 6, 2012 (Thursday) 16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	髙橋修平 (Shuhei Takahashi) (Kyoto University) Time-Varying Wage Risk, Incomplete Markets, and Business Cycles
Abstract	When driven by shocks to total factor productivity, perfectly competitive labor market models generate a counterfactually strong comovement of employment and average labor productivity (output per labor hour). In an environment where individuals face idiosyncratic earnings risk when making employment choices, I show that the key to resolving this productivity puzzle is cyclical variation in idiosyncratic wage risk. In the absence of full insurance, risk fluctuations have different effects on the labor supply of individuals with low and high productivity and produce a negative correlation between hours worked and productivity at the aggregate level. Specifically, a rise in wage risk initially increases the fraction of low-productivity individuals who work. Later, this fraction decreases, whereas more individuals with high productivity elect to work. In equilibrium, these shifts in labor supply first increase and then reduce employment. Labor productivity initially falls and later rises. I identify time variation in idiosyncratic wage risk using the cross-sectional dispersion of wage innovations in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). My estimate is that the standard deviation of fluctuations in risk is 4.4\% annually. When introduced alongside shocks to total factor productivity, the varying-risk model reproduces the weakly negative correlation between hours worked and labor productivity found in the US data (--0.38 in the model compared with --0.32 in the data). As shocks to total factor productivity primarily shift labor demand, in the absence of fluctuations in wage risk, the model generates a strong, positive correlation of 0.83.

日時
December 13, 2012 (Thursday) 16:40-18:20

※ 農林中金寄付講座、金融センター・ワークショップ、UTIPE Distinguished Research Seminar Series funded by Global 30と共催

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
Marianne Andries (Toulouse School of Economics)

Consumption-based Asset Pricing with Loss Aversion [paper]

Abstract
I incorporate loss aversion in a consumption-based asset pricing model with recursive preferences and solve for asset prices in closed-form. I find loss aversion increases expected returns substantially relative to the standard recursive utility model. This feature of my model improves the ability to match moments on asset prices. Further, I find loss aversion induces important nonlinearities into the expected excess returns as a function of the exposure to the consumption shocks. In particular, the elasticities of expected returns with respect to the exposure to the consumption shocks are greater for assets with smaller exposures to the shocks, thus generating interesting predictions for the cross-section of returns. I provide empirical evidence supporting this outcome. The model with loss aversion correctly predicts both a negative premium for skewness and a security market line, the excess returns as a function of the exposure to market risk, flatter than the CAPM.

日時	December 13, 2012 (Thursday) 16:40-18:20 ※ 農林中金寄付講座、金融センター・ワークショップ、UTIPE Distinguished Research Seminar Series funded by Global 30と共催
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	Marianne Andries (Toulouse School of Economics) Consumption-based Asset Pricing with Loss Aversion [paper]
Abstract	I incorporate loss aversion in a consumption-based asset pricing model with recursive preferences and solve for asset prices in closed-form. I find loss aversion increases expected returns substantially relative to the standard recursive utility model. This feature of my model improves the ability to match moments on asset prices. Further, I find loss aversion induces important nonlinearities into the expected excess returns as a function of the exposure to the consumption shocks. In particular, the elasticities of expected returns with respect to the exposure to the consumption shocks are greater for assets with smaller exposures to the shocks, thus generating interesting predictions for the cross-section of returns. I provide empirical evidence supporting this outcome. The model with loss aversion correctly predicts both a negative premium for skewness and a security market line, the excess returns as a function of the exposure to market risk, flatter than the CAPM.

日時
December 20, 2012 (Thursday) 16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
開発壮平（Sohei Kaihatsu) (Bank of Japan)

Sources of Business Fluctuations: Financial or Technology Shocks?

Abstract
Despite the widespread belief that technology shocks are the main source of business fluctuations, recent empirical studies indicate that an investment efficiency shock is the main source and is closely related to financial conditions for investment, using models with no financial friction. We incorporate a financial accelerator mechanism and two types of financial shocks to the external finance premium and the net worth but not the investment efficiency shock in a model with neutral and investment-specific technological changes and an investment-good price markup shock. This model is estimated using ten time series that include data on loan, the loan rate, and the relative price of investment. Our estimation results show that both output and investment fluctuations are mainly driven by technology shocks, while the external finance premium shock plays an important role for investment fluctuations. This financial shock induced substantial falls and subsequent sharp hikes in the external finance premium and caused boom--bust cycles. The joint use of the three data on loan, the loan rate, and the relative price of investment in estimation is indispensable to the results, since it helps identify the two types of financial shocks and the investment-specific technology shock.

日時	December 20, 2012 (Thursday) 16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	開発壮平（Sohei Kaihatsu) (Bank of Japan) Sources of Business Fluctuations: Financial or Technology Shocks?
Abstract	Despite the widespread belief that technology shocks are the main source of business fluctuations, recent empirical studies indicate that an investment efficiency shock is the main source and is closely related to financial conditions for investment, using models with no financial friction. We incorporate a financial accelerator mechanism and two types of financial shocks to the external finance premium and the net worth but not the investment efficiency shock in a model with neutral and investment-specific technological changes and an investment-good price markup shock. This model is estimated using ten time series that include data on loan, the loan rate, and the relative price of investment. Our estimation results show that both output and investment fluctuations are mainly driven by technology shocks, while the external finance premium shock plays an important role for investment fluctuations. This financial shock induced substantial falls and subsequent sharp hikes in the external finance premium and caused boom--bust cycles. The joint use of the three data on loan, the loan rate, and the relative price of investment in estimation is indispensable to the results, since it helps identify the two types of financial shocks and the investment-specific technology shock.

日時
December 21, 2012 (Friday)12:00-13:00

※発表中止となりました / Schedule Cancelled

報告
Yuko Imura　(Bank of Canada)

Abstract

日時	December 21, 2012 (Friday)12:00-13:00 ※発表中止となりました / Schedule Cancelled
報告	Yuko Imura　(Bank of Canada)
Abstract

日時
January 9, 2013 (Wednesday) 12:00-13:00 　※日時にご注意ください。

※UTIPE distinguished seminar series funded by Global 30、マクロファイナンス・金融&国際金融ワークショップと共催

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
Jinill Kim （Korea University）

Estimating Monetary Policy Rules When Nominal Interest Rates Are Stuck at Zero (joint with Seth Pruitt)

Abstract
Did the Federal Reserve's response to economic fundamentals change with the onset of the global nancial crisis? Answering this question is tricky because the policy inter- est rate set by the Federal Reserve has been stuck between zero and 25 basis points since late 2008, essentially the beginning of the crisis. Data from surveys of economic fore- casts allow us to sidestep the censoring problem and estimate monetary policy rules by regression. We nd that the Fed's in ation response has signicantly decreased while its unemployment response has remained strong. In terms of central bank communi- cation, our results can viewed as an argument that the Federal Reserve's commitment to stable in ation has become weaker in the eyes of the professional forecasters|and probably the nancial markets as well.

日時	January 9, 2013 (Wednesday) 12:00-13:00 　※日時にご注意ください。 ※UTIPE distinguished seminar series funded by Global 30、マクロファイナンス・金融&国際金融ワークショップと共催
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	Jinill Kim （Korea University） Estimating Monetary Policy Rules When Nominal Interest Rates Are Stuck at Zero (joint with Seth Pruitt)
Abstract	Did the Federal Reserve's response to economic fundamentals change with the onset of the global nancial crisis? Answering this question is tricky because the policy inter- est rate set by the Federal Reserve has been stuck between zero and 25 basis points since late 2008, essentially the beginning of the crisis. Data from surveys of economic fore- casts allow us to sidestep the censoring problem and estimate monetary policy rules by regression. We nd that the Fed's in ation response has signicantly decreased while its unemployment response has remained strong. In terms of central bank communi- cation, our results can viewed as an argument that the Federal Reserve's commitment to stable in ation has become weaker in the eyes of the professional forecasters\|and probably the nancial markets as well.

日時
※ 2013年1月　修士論文報告会 Master's Thesis Presentations ※

１．下記の予定は変更の可能性もありますのでご注意下さい

（Please note that the schedule below might be changed)。

２．発表は基本的に日本語で行われます

（Presentations are basically in Japanese)。

発表者の方へ
発表論文についてはCIRJEにて印刷し、当日会場にて配布いたします。つきましては、下記の期日までに最終稿のファイルまたはハードコピーをご提出ください。

発表論文提出期限（厳守）：
1月23日（水）発表者＝1月22日（火）朝9:00（必着）まで

1月24日（木）発表者＝1月23日（水）朝9:00（必着）まで

1月30日（水）発表者＝1月29日（火）朝9:00（必着）まで

提出先：学術交流棟（小島ホール）６階CIRJE・田中公子（kimiko [at mark]e.u-tokyo.ac.jp）

上記提出期限の日時を過ぎたものについてはいかなる理由があっても受け付けられません。ご自身で15部のコピーをご用意の上、当日会場にご持参ください。

論文は必ず最終稿をご提出ください。提出後の差し替えは受け付けませんので、差し替えなければならない事態が発生した場合には、論文はご自身で印刷して（15部）当日持参して頂くことになります。

添付ファイルが破損している等、ファイルが開けない場合は連絡を差し上げるため、ファイルで提出される方はお申し込み時に携帯電話番号等、当日すぐに連絡のつく連絡先をお書き添え下さい。

別途、正式な修士論文口述試験が行なわれるので、修士論文提出時に大学院係から配付される審査日程を参照のうえ、必ずご出席下さい。

パソコン・ポインターはセミナー室ロッカー内の機器をご使用のうえ、設置・片づけは最初と最後の発表者が各自で行って下さい。（プロジェクターは会場に備え付けられています。）

Your thesis paper is distributed at the seminar venue. Please send an electronic file of it to Kimiko Tanaka at kimiko [at mark] e.u-tokyo.ac.jp, so that CIRJE can duplicate it. You can also bring its hardcopy directly to the CIRJE office on the 6th floor of Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall).

The submission deadline is (please be punctual):

January 23 … by 9:00am., January 22 (Tuesday)
January 24…by 9:00am., January 23 (Wednesday)

January 30…by 9:00am., January 29 (Tuesday)

Make sure that

Submission behind the deadline is not accepted for any reason.

The file/hardcopy submitted to CIRJE should be the final version.

You need to send your emergency contact information such as cell phone number together with your thesis file, so that CIRJE can immediately reach you in case the file cannot be opened/is broken.

Those who missed the deadline or those who would like to revise the thesis paper after the submission, are required to make 15 hardcopies of it and bring them to the seminar venue on the presentation day.

You MUST attend the oral examination in addition to this master thesis presentation: for details, please see the schedule information to be distributed by the Graduate Office when you submit your thesis.

Presenters can use equipment such as a computer and a pointer in a locker in the seminar venue: make sure they should be back into place after use.

日時	※ 2013年1月　修士論文報告会 Master's Thesis Presentations ※ １．下記の予定は変更の可能性もありますのでご注意下さい（Please note that the schedule below might be changed)。２．発表は基本的に日本語で行われます（Presentations are basically in Japanese)。
発表者の方へ	発表論文についてはCIRJEにて印刷し、当日会場にて配布いたします。つきましては、下記の期日までに最終稿のファイルまたはハードコピーをご提出ください。発表論文提出期限（厳守）： 1月23日（水）発表者＝1月22日（火）朝9:00（必着）まで 1月24日（木）発表者＝1月23日（水）朝9:00（必着）まで 1月30日（水）発表者＝1月29日（火）朝9:00（必着）まで提出先：学術交流棟（小島ホール）６階CIRJE・田中公子（kimiko [at mark]e.u-tokyo.ac.jp）上記提出期限の日時を過ぎたものについてはいかなる理由があっても受け付けられません。ご自身で15部のコピーをご用意の上、当日会場にご持参ください。論文は必ず最終稿をご提出ください。提出後の差し替えは受け付けませんので、差し替えなければならない事態が発生した場合には、論文はご自身で印刷して（15部）当日持参して頂くことになります。添付ファイルが破損している等、ファイルが開けない場合は連絡を差し上げるため、ファイルで提出される方はお申し込み時に携帯電話番号等、当日すぐに連絡のつく連絡先をお書き添え下さい。別途、正式な修士論文口述試験が行なわれるので、修士論文提出時に大学院係から配付される審査日程を参照のうえ、必ずご出席下さい。パソコン・ポインターはセミナー室ロッカー内の機器をご使用のうえ、設置・片づけは最初と最後の発表者が各自で行って下さい。（プロジェクターは会場に備え付けられています。） Your thesis paper is distributed at the seminar venue. Please send an electronic file of it to Kimiko Tanaka at kimiko [at mark] e.u-tokyo.ac.jp, so that CIRJE can duplicate it. You can also bring its hardcopy directly to the CIRJE office on the 6th floor of Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall). The submission deadline is (please be punctual): January 23 … by 9:00am., January 22 (Tuesday) January 24…by 9:00am., January 23 (Wednesday) January 30…by 9:00am., January 29 (Tuesday) Make sure that Submission behind the deadline is not accepted for any reason. The file/hardcopy submitted to CIRJE should be the final version. You need to send your emergency contact information such as cell phone number together with your thesis file, so that CIRJE can immediately reach you in case the file cannot be opened/is broken. Those who missed the deadline or those who would like to revise the thesis paper after the submission, are required to make 15 hardcopies of it and bring them to the seminar venue on the presentation day. You MUST attend the oral examination in addition to this master thesis presentation: for details, please see the schedule information to be distributed by the Graduate Office when you submit your thesis. Presenters can use equipment such as a computer and a pointer in a locker in the seminar venue: make sure they should be back into place after use.

日時	2013年1月23日（水　Wednesday）12:00-12:30
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）2階小島コンファレンスルーム in Kojima Conference Room on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall)
報告	大島一宏（Readers：青木　渡辺　（吉川）） Monetary Policy and Intertemporal Choice through Oil Investment

日時

2013年1月23日（水　Wednesday）12:00-12:30

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）2階小島コンファレンスルーム
in Kojima Conference Room on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall)

報告

大島一宏 （Readers：青木　渡辺　（吉川））

Monetary Policy and Intertemporal Choice through Oil Investment

日時	2013年1月23日（水　Wednesday）12:30-13:00
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）2階小島コンファレンスルーム in Kojima Conference Room on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall)
報告	松田一茂（Readers：青木　渡辺　（吉川））企業貯蓄のモデル

日時

2013年1月23日（水　Wednesday）12:30-13:00

場所

報告

松田一茂 （Readers：青木　渡辺　（吉川））

企業貯蓄のモデル

日時	2013年1月24日（木　Thursday）16:40-17:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall)
報告	Eric Alan WAYMAN （Readers：中林　青木　（松村）） The structure and Performance of Life Insurance Companies in Japan : Before and After the Reform

日時

2013年1月24日（木　Thursday）16:40-17:20

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall)

報告

Eric Alan WAYMAN （Readers：中林　青木　（松村））

The structure and Performance of Life Insurance Companies in Japan : Before and After the Reform

日時	2013年1月24日（木　Thursday）17:20-18:00
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall)
報告	土井田勉（Readers：福田　大瀧　（青木））銀行間市場の流動性と最適金融政策

日時

2013年1月24日（木　Thursday）17:20-18:00

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall)

報告

土井田勉 （Readers：福田　大瀧　（青木））

銀行間市場の流動性と最適金融政策

日時	2013年1月24日（木　Thursday）18:00-18:40
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall)
報告	乾真之（Readers：福田藤本（淳）　（青木）） Human Psychology, Credit Risk, and Asset Pricing

日時

2013年1月24日（木　Thursday）18:00-18:40

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall)

報告

乾真之 （Readers：福田藤本（淳）　（青木））

Human Psychology, Credit Risk, and Asset Pricing

日時	2013年1月30日（水　Wednesday）12:00-12:30
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall)
報告	木村遥介（Readers：吉川　渡辺　（青木）） Financial modelling with subordinated processes and self-similar activity time

日時

2013年1月30日（水　Wednesday）12:00-12:30

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall)

報告

木村遥介 （Readers：吉川　渡辺　（青木））

Financial modelling with subordinated processes and self-similar activity time

日時	2013年1月30日（水　Wednesday）12:30-13:00
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall)
報告	田中義孝（Readers：　渡辺　青木　（吉川）） Liquidity Demand and Low Yield of JGB

日時

2013年1月30日（水　Wednesday）12:30-13:00

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall)

報告

田中義孝 （Readers：　渡辺　青木　（吉川））

Liquidity Demand and Low Yield of JGB

日時	2013年1月30日（水　Wednesday）13:00-13:30 ※Schedule Changed
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall)
報告	長基公則（Readers：福田　青木　（林））銀行間取引金利の不正操作疑惑に関する検証

日時

2013年1月30日（水　Wednesday）13:00-13:30 ※Schedule Changed

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall)

報告

長基公則 （Readers：福田　青木　（林））

銀行間取引金利の不正操作疑惑に関する検証

日時	March 18, 2013 (Monday) *16:40-18:20 曜日に注意 ※UTIPE Distinguished Research Seminar Series funded by Global 30と共催**
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階セミナー室 in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	Ponpoje Porapakkarm (University of Macau) Labor Supply Incentives of Medicaid
Abstract

Workshops

Macroeconomics Workshop 2012