The Urban Economics Workshop 2021
空間情報科学研究センター（CSIS）との共催ワークショップ

中川 万理子（一橋大学）

山鹿久木（関西学院大学）
"Estimation of nonlinear functions using coarsely discrete measures in panel data: A case of a relationship between land prices and earthquake risks in the Tokyo Metropolitan District (with Tao Gu, Masayuki Nakagawa, and Makoto Saito)"

松尾美和（神戸大学）
Welfare, Auto Ownership, and Employment: Driving away from Poverty

張先農(ワシントン大学セントルイス校)
The impact of negative links: Theory and evidence

I study the impact of negative links through signed network formation. First, I propose a game-theoretical model to study how negative links reshape stable networks. I characterize the properties of pairwise stable and strong stable networks and discuss models' implications through two applications: the military alliance network and the school bullying network. I vary the relative gain of negative links and show that stable networks are assortative and agents tend to be homogenous when the gains are high; stable networks are more star-like when the gains are low. Second, I conduct a continuous-time online experiment to study the behavioral changes related to negative links. I find that subjects are more myopic and less farsighted when negative links are introduced. This is the first paper to both theoretically and behaviorally analyze the impact of negative links.

山﨑潤一(神戸大学)
From Samurai to Skyscrapers: How Historical Lot Fragmentation Shapes Tokyo (Junichi Yamasaki, Kentaro Nakajima, and Kensuke Teshima)

Can transaction costs in the urban land market generate lot size persistence and persistently hinder efficient land use? Using historical data in Tokyo, we study how initial lot fragmentation has affected urban development by exploiting the plausibly exogenous supply shock of large lots in 1868, the release of local lords' estates (daimyo yashiki) scattered throughout old Tokyo, now the central business district. We construct a 100 m*100 m-cell-level dataset spanning 150 years. Using ordinary least squares and a regression discontinuity design, we find that cells previously used as local lords' estates have larger lots today, implying that lot size persistence exists. We also find positive effects on land use and activities, that is, taller buildings, higher land prices, and higher firm productivity, implying lot size premia due to assembly frictions. We provide two pieces of evidence that these positive effects are explained by the growth of skyscrapers requiring large footprints. First, tall buildings explain the effect of local lords' estates on firm productivity today. Second, we find no positive impact on land prices before the skyscraper age. Instead, it was negative, suggesting that split frictions were dominant at that time and assembly frictions became more relevant with the emergence of skyscrapers.

1. 高野佳佑（筑波大学）
Place-based SME finance policy and local industrial revival: Empirical analysis on directed credit program after WW2

2. 安田昌平（日本大学）
災害リスクに対する主観的認知の更新メカニズムと防災行動に関する分析(安田昌平・直井道生)

1.
This paper examined the effects on the performance of local SMEs of a modernization fund program for small business enterprises implemented by Osaka Prefecture in the early 1950s. Utilizing firm-level panel data based on business credit reports, we empirically evaluated the effects of the program. We found an improvement in production levels among the recipients. In addition, recipients in sectors related to munitions production or in industrial agglomerations specialized in these sectors achieved additional or larger improvements in their production levels
 
2.
本論文では、主観的災害リスク認知と防災行動の関連を探る目的で、以下の 2 種類の分析を行った。第一の分析では、アンケート調査から独自に収集した地震発生確率の主観 的評価の指標を用い、災害リスク認知が地震保険への加入や各種防災対策におよぼす 影響を検証した。分析の結果、主観的リスク認知が防災行動の重要な規定要因になって いることが明らかになった。この結果を受けて、第二の分析では、追加的なリスク情報 の提供が、対象者の主観的リスク認知におよぼす影響を検証した。ベイズ更新モデルに 基づく分析の結果、主観的リスク認知は提示された追加情報に近づく形で更新される ことがわかった。ただし、リスク認知の更新プロセスにおける追加情報に対する重みづ けは必ずしも大きくなく、追加情報への主観的リスクの誘導は部分的にしか生じない こと、および、リスク認知の更新には個人間の異質性が存在することが明らかになった。こうした結果は、ハザードマップや被害想定の公表などの実際の施策の有効性を一定 程度支持するものであるといえる。

小川光（東京大学）
Does e-commerce ease or intensify tax competition? Destination principle vs. origin principle (with Hiroshi Aiura)

隅田和人（東洋大学）
"Long-term care facilities and migration of elderly households in an aged society: Empirical analysis based on micro data (with Nakazawa, K., Kawase, A.)"

修論報告会
小林直弥 （主査：佐藤、副査：高橋(孝)・川田）
「新型コロナウイルス感染症の流行が犯罪に及ぼした影響の分析」

福村晃一（香川大学）
"Migration under Imperfect Skill Evaluation"
岩田真一郎（神奈川大学）
"The spillover effects of compact city policy on incumbent retailers: Evidence from Toyama City (with Keisuke Kondo)"