May 16, 2011 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Tsunao Okumura　 (Yokohama National University)

Intergenerational Transmission of Skills and Differences in Labor Market Outcomes for Blacks and Whites (joint with Emiko Usui) [PDF]

This paper theoretically and empirically investigates differences in intergenerational transmission of occupational skills between blacks and whites and their effect on sons' earnings. The father-son skill correlation is measured by the angle between the father's and son's skill vectors. The skill vector comprises an individual's occupational characteristics from the Dictionary of Occupational Titles. According to the U.S. National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, white sons earn higher wages in occupations that require skills similar to their fathers', whereas black sons in such circumstances incur a wage loss. The father-son skill correlation explains a significant portion of the black-white wage gap.

May 23, 2011 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Tomomi Tanaka　 (Arizona State University)

Does Marriage Work as a Savings Commitment Device?: Experimental Evidence from Vietnam (joint with Hisaki Kono, Ayako Matsuda and Takeshi Murooka)

We conduct a time discounting experiment with married couples, and examine how time preferences, particularly hyperbolic preferences, affect intrahousehold decision making, and investigate whether marriage works as a savings commitment device. Our experimental results suggest present biased individuals choose more patient decisions when they make decisions jointly with their spouses. However, present biased subjects choose not to ask their spouses to keep their experimental earnings, turn over smaller percentages of their salary to their spouses. Present-biased husbands are more likely to keep cash within households compared with non-present biased husbands. This study shows marriage does not function(or may counteract) as a savings commitment device,especially for hyperbolic discounters. Our results indicate the importance of commitment devices outside of households and appropriate policy interventions to alleviate the self-control problems.

May 30, 2011 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Takeshi Aida　 (University of Tokyo)

Social Capital as an Instrument for Common Pool Resource Management: A Case Study from an Irrigation Management in Sri Lanka
※　論文は著者の希望で当日配布のみとなります。(Only hardcopies are available in the seminar.)

　This paper investigates the effect of social capital between head-enders and tail-enders of irrigation canals on the water allocation problem between them. Although social capital is considered to be an instrument for common pool resource management, its effect among heterogeneous players do not reach to a consensus. As for irrigation management, water allocation problem between head-enders and tail-enders is one of these serious problems. Using unique natural and field experiment data as well as usual household survey collected by JICA, I find that social capital, especially trust, to their tail-enders has significantly positive effect on satisfaction with water usage. Considering the fact that the incentive structure of irrigation water allocation for head-enders closely resembles to that of dictator and trust games, this finding also supports the validity of experimentally measured social capital. In addition, I handle the simultaneity bias between satisfaction level and experimentally measured social capital and find that OLS estimators are downward biased, which is consistent with the hypothesis that the scarcity of resource enhances the level of social capital.

June 6, 2011 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Masanori Tsuruoka　 (University of Tokyo)

Some Issues on Public Procurement Auctions (proposal)

We investigate two topics on public procurement auctions. First, we empirically analyze the extent to which open tendering improves government expenditure and consumer welfare in the public work auctions. Second, we examine the effect of a policy change by the government that implements two-dimensional auctions where suppliers' submitting offers are evaluated by both price and quality. In order to examine these impacts, this paper modifies the Bloom's(1984) method to deal with the multiple treatment problem.　

June 13, 2011 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Ryo Nakajima　 (Yokohama National University)

Localized knowledge spillovers and patent citations: A distance-based approach (joint with Yasusada Murata, Ryo Nakajima, Ryosuke Okamoto and Ryuichi Tamura) [PDF]

　We develop a new approach to localized knowledge spillovers by incorporating theconcept of control patents (Jaffe, Trajtenberg and Henderson 1993) into the distancebased test of localization (Duranton and Overman, 2005). Using microgeographic data, we identify localization distance while allowing for cross-boundary spillovers, unlike the existing literature where the extent of localized knowledge spillovers is detected at the state or metropolitan statistical area level. We revisit the recent debate by Thompson and Fox-Kean (2005) and Henderson, Jaffe and Trajtenberg (2005) on the existence of localized knowledge spillovers, and find solid evidence supporting localization, even when finer controls are used.

June 20, 2011 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Yuta Kikuchi 　 (University of Tokyo)

Measuring the Impact of Incorporation of National Universities in Japan on Research Output
※　資料は著者の希望で当日配布のみとなります。(Only hardcopies are available in the seminar.)

I find that the total amount of research output (which is calculated based on quality and quantity of academic publications) of Japanese National University is decreasing in some research field in the late 2000's. One of the factors that can explain this depression may be the Incorporation of National Universities, because it is often discussed that this institutional reform coincides with financial pressure due to gradual reduction of government subsidy and induced reduction in time allocated to research activities. These changes are said to be suppressing basic scientific research. In this research, I regard Private Universities as control group that have not experienced such institutional change and use difference-in-differences method to examine the treatment effect. The results show that incorporation seems to have a negative effect on research output especially in the field of medicine and life science.

June 27, 2011 (Monday) 12:15-13:15

※開始時間が変更となりましたのでご注意下さい。

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Katsumi Shimotsu (Hitotsubashi University)

Local Quadratic Approximation in Finite Mixture Models and Testing the Number of Components (joint with Hiroyuki Kasahara)

Testing the number of components in finite mixture models has been a long-standing challenging problem. We consider likelihood-based testing of the number of components in a finite mixture model. We develop a likelihood-based test of the null hypothesis of m components against the alternative hypothesis of m+1 components employing the EM approach of Li, Chen and Marriott (2009). The proposed EM test statistic has an easy-to-use chi-square mixture asymptotic distribution for any m. Simulation results show that the proposed test has a good finite sample size and power. A dataset from medical study is analyzed to illustrate the application of the proposed test.

June 30, 2011 (Thursday) 12:10-13:10 ※曜日にご注意下さい。

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Mai Seki (University of Wisconsin - Madison)

Heterogenous Returns to College Quality and the Value of Graduate Degree Attainment
※　資料は著者の希望で当日配布のみとなります。(Only hardcopies are available in the seminar.)

The existing studies on returns to college quality show mixed results given the difficulty of controlling for selection. Moreover, researchers have not investigated whether college quality affects the probability of attaining a graduate degree (i.e., a master's or professional degree) while controlling for selection. I use the factor structure model of Carneiro, Hansen, and Heckman (2003) in order to address this issue. I extend the model to two samples since neither sample has sufficient information. By using this approach, I control for selection on unobserved abilities, the results apply to all levels of college quality, and identification of the source of unobserved ability is explicit and robust to measurement error in admission test scores. In addition, the model allows me to calculate heterogeneous returns to college quality, depending on both observable characteristics and unobservable math and verbal abilities. The results show there are positive returns to college quality, both in labor market outcomes and in advanced degree attainment, even after controlling for selection.

July 4, 2011 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Haruko Noguchi 　(Population and Social Security Research)

Population ageing and wellbeing: Lessons from Japan's long-term care insurance (joint with Nanako Tamiya, Akihiro Nishi, Hideki Hashimoto, Michael Reich, Kenji Shibuya, Naoki Ikegami, Ichiro Kawachi and John Campbell)
※　資料は著者の希望で当日配布のみとなります。(Only hardcopies are available in the seminar.)

Japan is rapidly ageing due to long life expectancy and low birthrate. The number of frail older people has been growing as traditional supports are eroding. As in other advanced nations, the Japanese government responded. Mandatory public long-term care insurance (LTCI) was initiated nationally in 2000 to help older people to lead more independent lives and to relieve the burdens of family caregivers. LTCI operates on social insurance principles, with benefits provided regardless of income or family situation; it is unusually generous in terms of both coverage and benefit levels. Only services are provided, not cash allowances, and recipients can choose their services and providers. Empirical analysis of national survey data before and after the program started shows increased use of formal care at lower cost to households, with mixed results on the wellbeing of caregivers. Formal service use was slightly higher for upper-income households. Challenges to the system include dissatisfaction with home-based care, necessary supports for family caregivers, and fiscal sustainability. Japan's strategy on services rather than cash, consumer choice with guidance, and specialized LTC for older people offers possible lessons for other nations.　

July 11, 2011 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Chikako Yamauchi (GRIPS)

Local Government Capability and Public Spending Efficacy: Evidence from a Decentralized Government Transfer Program in Indonesia [PDF] [PDF(table)]

This paper investigates the size of grants from the central government that is actually delivered to intended beneficiaries by the local government. Combining administrative data and household survey datasets, we show that only 78 percent of the grants under the Inpres Desa Tertinggal (IDT)–Indonesia's poverty alleviation program–were received by intended beneficiaries. We find that pre-existing administrative and organizational skills of village governments are positively associated with the share of funds reaching beneficiaries. We also provide the first evidence linking the literature on targeting and the literature on the delivery of public spending, by demonstrating that failing to taking into account missing public resources could produce a misleading conclusion on the nature of the distribution of anti-poverty program resources. 　

July 21, 2011 (Thursday) 12:10-13:10　　
※曜日にご注意下さい。

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Christopher Taber 　 (University of Wisconsin)

A Ben-Porath Model With Labor Supply and Retirement (joint with Xiaodong Fan and Ananth Seshadri)
※　資料は当日配布のみとなります。(Only hardcopies are available in the seminar.)

July 25, 2011 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Takuro Morioka　 (University of Tokyo)

Who benefits from the traffic infrastructure investment?

※　配付資料なし (no presentation materials)

Traffic infrastructure investment such as laying new railroad yields benefits received mainly by three types of agents, railroad company, railroad users, and owners of the land nearby the railroad. I quantify how much railroad investment benefits railroad users and residential land owners using discrete choice residential location model. 　

July 28, 2011 (Thursday) 12:10-13:10　　
※曜日にご注意下さい。

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Kosuke Uetake　 (Northwestern University)

Entry by Acquisition
※　配付資料なし (no presentation materials)

A firm may enter into a new market by acquiring an incumbent, and availability of desirable target of merger a¤ects entry decision in such a case. Hence, we model entry and merger decisions jointly and empirically study the branching decisions of commercial banks using the model. First, we consider a two-sided matching model with externality and prove existence of stable allocations by extending Hatfield and Milgrom (2005) to the environment with externality as well as adding participation (entry) decision in matching.

Second, we propose a new approach to estimate a matching model based on the fuxed-point property of the stable matching following Adachi's (2000) characterization using prematching. Then, we estimate the model with the data of branching decisions of commercial banks in the U.S. to recover profit function and merger (dis)synergies across di¤erent types of banks. Finally, we conduct a counterfactual policy experiment to see the e¤ect of regulation on intra-state branching on the market structure.

August 15, 2011 (Monday) 12:00-13:00 　　※時間にご注意下さい。

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Kei Kawai　(Northwestern University)

Auction Design and the Incentives to Invest: Evidence from Procurement Auctions [PDF]

While there is a growing theoretical literature that analyzes pre-auction investment, much of the empirical literature has focused on allocative e¢ ciency or revenue maximization in static settings. This paper studies auction design when the seller can make costly investments to improve the quality of the good, using data from municipal plastic recycling auctions in Japan. We estimate the bidders’valuation for quality –cleanness and consistency –of plastic supplied by the sellers, and the sellers’costs of investing in quality. The latter is identi…ed by a policy change which occurred during the sample period. The new regime entitled sellers to a subsidy directly based on the quality of the supplied plastic. Using the estimated primitives of the model, we quantify the e¢ ciency gains from the policy change and evaluate alternative auction designs. The estimates imply that in the benchmark …rst price auction, the privately provided quality is lower than what is socially optimal. The associated welfare loss is about 5; 200 yen per ton of plastic, or about 5:6% of the average winning bid.

September 26, 2011 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Daiji Kawaguchi　(Hitotsubashi University)

Fewer School Days, More Inequality

※　論文は著者の希望で当日配布のみとなります。(Only hardcopies are available in the seminar.)

　An aim of compulsory education is to give children, regardless of their family backgrounds, homogeneous educational opportunities. This paper examines how the intensity of compulsory education affects the time use and academic achievement of children with different socioeconomic backgrounds. The impact is identified off the school-day reduction of Japan in 2002 that resulted when all Saturdays were set as public school holidays. An analysis of time diaries and test scores before and after the school-day reduction reveals that the socioeconomic gradient of study time doubled and the socioeconomic gradient of academic achievements became 30% steeper. Intensive compulsory education contributes to equalizing the academic performances of children with different socioeconomic backgrounds.

October 3, 2011 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Masato Nishiwaki (GRIPS)

Horizontal Mergers and Divestment Dynamics in a Sunset Industry [PDF]

In oligopolistic industries, the amount of capital investment is likely to be excessive due to the presence of a business-stealing effect and fixed costs. Similarly, sunset industries with declining demand tend to be riddled with chronic excess capital. The reason is that firms will attempt to free-ride on the reduction of industry supply expected from someone else's divestment, hoping to steal their business. This paper highlights the potential of mergers to internalize this business-stealing effect and thereby promote divestment. Using the case of mergers in the Japanese cement industry, it examines whether such merger-induced divestment improve total welfare. A dynamic model of divestment based on the Markov-perfect equilibrium framework of Ericson and Pakes (1995) is estimated using recently developed econometric methods. Then, a counterfactual experiment is conducted to quantify the welfare impact of mergers. The findings suggests that merged firms indeed more actively closed facilities and that, as a result of these mergers, total welfare improved despite a reduction in the consumer surplus.

October 17, 2011 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Midori Wakabayashi (Osaka Prefecture University)

Precautionary savings and anxiety for not getting married [PDF]

　　Using Japanese panel data, we analyze the precautionary savings due to staying single in the presence of income uncertainty. Our cross-sectional and panel analyses find that young women who have less anticipation of getting married in the future have more target savings for precautionary purpose, as well as target savings for retirement. These results suggest that facing higher risk of income fluctuation owing to the choice of late marriage or being unmarried, young women add more savings against the income risk of single life.　

October 24, 2011 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Yoko Konishi (RIETI)

Productivity of Service Providers: Microeconometric measurement in the case of hair salons (joint with Yoshihiko Nishiyama) [PDF]

　In this paper we measure the productivity of service industries using micro dataset. The "service industry" is a very broad category including many sectors, such as education, finance, insurance, transportation, logistics, food service, and many more. These sectors exhibit, in our understanding, very different structures from one another, and it is not easy to construct one model that can be applied to all service sectors. It is common in the literature to measure the productivity of manufacturing industries, typically by the Solow residual or its modification from production function estimations. We may possibly follow the same track in studying productivity in service industries. However, they may be different in their structures. In the case of hair salon services, it is impossible for service providers to hold inventories. They can serve only when customers arrive at the hair salon. In this paper, we study the case of hairdressers using micro data collected by hair salons. We believe that our approach is applicable to the food industry, beauty industry and health clinic industry.

November 7, 2011 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Yoshihiko Nishiyama (Kyoto University)

A Goodness of Fit Test for Ergodic Markov Processes (joint with V.Martin and J.Stachurski) [paper]

　 We introduce a goodness of fit test for ergodic Markov processes. Our test compares the data against the set of stationary densities implied by the class of models specified in the null hypothesis, and rejects if no model in the class yields a stationary density that matches with the data. No alternative needs to be specified in order to impliment the test. Although our test compares densities it involves no smoothing parameters, and has nontrivial power against root-n-local alternatives.

November 14, 2011 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Emiko Usui (Nagoya University)

Job Mobility, Employer Learning, and Wage Dynamics (joint with Seik Kim)

※　論文は著者の希望で当日配布のみとなります。(Only hardcopies are available in the seminar.)

　This paper takes a new approach to testing whether employer learning is public or private. We show that public and private learning schemes make two distinct predictions about the wage growth paths since the amount of information available to incumbent employers is different when there is a job change. In general, learning is public according to our results from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79), but it also appears to depend on the type of occupation. It tends to be public for service and operative occupations, but private for managerial occupations.

November 21, 2011 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Tomoaki Yamada (Meiji University)

Risk Sharing Between and Within Regions

※　論文は著者の希望で当日配布のみとなります。(Only hardcopies are available in the seminar.)

　We study risk sharing between and within regions in Japan using the Keio Household Panel Survey. We find that the earnings inequality measured by the variance of logarithm in rural area is higher than that in urban area although the average earnings in rural area are much lower than those in urban area. On the other hand, consumption inequality between regions is less dispersed compared to the earnings inequality. To investigate whether this empirical finding is consistent with consumption risk sharing, we costruct a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents. We show that the risk sharing between regions in Japan contradicts with consumption risk sharing.

November 28, 2011 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Ryuichi Tanaka (GRIPS)

Estimating the Effects of Pro-Natal Policies on Residential Choice and Fertility (joint with Ryo Nakajima)

※　論文は著者の希望で当日配布のみとなります。(Only hardcopies are available in the seminar.)

　In this paper, we investigate whether pro-natal policies affect residential location choice and fertility decision of households. We focus on five pro-natal policies: child allowances, daycare expenditure, child support expenditure, mother-child medical care, and child medical care. Using a national representative household survey of Japan, we first estimate the effects of these policies on the choice probability of residential location. Then we estimate the effects of these policies on the probability of childbirth, correcting the biases caused by residential location choice of households. We find that pro-natal policies affect both fertility choice and residential location choice: child support expenditure matters for residential location choice, and child support expenditure, child allowances, and mother-child medicare expenditure matter for fertility decision of households.

December 5, 2011 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Hideo Akabayashi (Keio University)

少人数教育の計量経済分析：静岡県における全国学力・学習状況調査を用いた 検証 (佐野晋平・直井道生・中村亮介との共著)

※　論文は著者の希望で当日配布のみとなります。(Only hardcopies are available in the seminar.)

　本稿では、静岡県から提供を受けた学力・教員・学級編制データを利用し、非連 続回帰デザインに基づいて、教員属性を制御したうえで、学級規模が教育成果に 与える影響の検証を行った。学校単位の集計データの分析から、学級規模の縮小 に伴って、小学校6年生の算数の正答率が上昇する可能性が示唆された。このよ うな効果は、特に女子児童について顕著にみられる。ただし、全体としては学級 規模の縮小が学力テストの正答率を向上させる効果を持つという強い根拠は得ら れなかった。これに加え、教員の属性に関しては、児童・生徒の在籍学年を担当 する女性教員比率の増加は、小学6年生の国語・算数の正答率を向上させる傾向 がみられた。在籍する児童・生徒の就学援助比率に関しては、小・中学校を通 じ、ほぼ一貫して正答率との負の相関が観察された。女子生徒比率に関しては、 小・中学校を通じ、多くのケースで正答率との正の相関が観察された。しかしな がら、生徒個票データを用いた分析ではこれらの結果は必ずしも得られなかっ た。これは、学級規模縮小政策の効果が、学校規模によって異なるという分析結 果と矛盾しないことも確認された。　

December 12, 2011 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Yuhei Miyauchi (University of Tokyo)

Can integrated education reduce discrimination toward persons with disabilities? Evidence from a field experiment in Nepal (Joint with Kamal Lamichhane and Yasuyuki Sawada)

※　論文は著者の希望で当日配布のみとなります。(Only hardcopies are available in the seminar.)

This paper studies the impact of integrated education on students' discriminatory behavior toward persons with disabilities using a framed field experiment. We construct a new experimental procedure that exploits the nature and the degree of discriminatory behavior. Our experiment is based on the prisoner's dilemma game, but there are two additional features. First, participants can select their partners from different social groups of people. Second, we extract the belief on opponents' strategies. This procedure enables us to differentiate taste-based and information-based discrimination, which has been the long-standing issue in the literature of discrimination. Our actual experiments with secondary (middle) school students are conducted in an integrated school in Nepal. By utilizing the natural experimental situation that students without disabilities are randomly assigned to classes with or without students with disabilities, we evaluate the effect of integrated education on students' discriminatory behavior. By analyzing data from our field experiment, we find evidence of taste-based discrimination for males and females and information-based discrimination for females. Moreover, we find that integrated education reduces taste-based discrimination for males and information-based discrimination for females.

December 19, 2011 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Naohito Abe (Hitotsubashi University)
Chiaki Moriguchi (Hitotsubashi University)

The Impacts of the East Japan Great Earthquake on Commodity Prices and Household Welfare in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (joint with Masahiro Hori, Noriko Inakura, and Takayuki Mizuno)

　The powerful earthquake that hit northeastern Japan on March 11 caused major disruptions in economic activities far beyond the area directly affected. In the Tokyo metropolitan area, consumers experienced severe shortages of basic goods such as batteries, rice, mineral water, and milk after the earthquake. Did commodity prices rise in response? Did consumers change their purchasing behavior? Was there much hoarding? Taking advantage of high-frequency commodity-level POS data, we investigate the effects of the 3/11 earthquake on commodity prices and household welfare in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Although our analysis is still preliminary, we find that (1) the average household expenditure in the metropolitan area surged during the week following the earthquake; (2) within-store commodity prices rose surprisingly little even in the presence of substantial excess demand, resulting in large-scale rationing for some commodities; (3) for those consumers who could not purchase usual brands at usual stores, the effective prices they paid to obtain similar commodities were substantially higher; (4) compared to households with a non-working wife, households with a working wife purchased a smaller variety of goods at higher effective prices during the week following the earthquake, resulting in a larger decline in household welfare. To understand why within-store commodity prices did not rise, we compare changes in the price of mineral water in retail stores and online auction markets. Consistent with Okun's hypothesis, we find that, when sellers have long-term customer relations, they are less likely to raise prices in response to the demand increase.

December 22, 2011 (Thursday) 12:10-13:10

※曜日にご注意下さい。　※Microworkshopと共催

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

David Yanagizawa-Drott (Harvard University）

Fake Drugs: Evidence From a Randomized Experiment in Uganda (joint with Jakob Svensson)

This paper investigates the determinants of quality of health products in developing countries. We use experimental data from local markets for antimalarial medicines in Uganda to study this. To measure drug quality, we used covert shoppers that purchased antimalarials from private outlets and then tested for substandard drugs using Raman spectroscopy. Combining this with household survey data, we first establish some facts about product quality. We find that (i) 30 percent of the outlets sell fake antimalarials, (ii) price does not signal quality, (iii) consumer beliefs about prevalence of fake drugs are positively correlated with actual prevalence, (iv) fakes drugs are more prevalent when misconceptions about malaria are more common among consumers. In addition, we conduct a randomized experiment to investigate how competition affects the market equilibrium. We randomly assigned a new drug outlet selling authentic drugs below the prevailing market price. The results show that the intervention reduced prevalence of fake drugs by incumbent outlets by half, reduced the incumbent prices, and increased treatment of children reported sick in malaria. We also find evidence suggesting that the effects of competition on quality is larger when consumers are better able to correctly infer drug quality. Together, our results indicate that lack of competition and consumer ability to infer quality are key determinants of substandard drugs in developing countries.

December 26, 2011 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

※　応用統計ワークショップと共催

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Kengo Kato (Hiroshima University）

Estimation in functional linear quantile regression

This paper studies estimation in functional linear quantile regression in which the dependent variable is scalar while the covariate is a function, and the conditional quantile for a fixed quantile index is modeled as a linear functional of the covariate. We consider an estimator for the slope function based on the principal component basis. An estimator for the conditional quantile is obtained by a plugin method. Despite their simplicity, these estimators have not been analyzed in detail. We establish sharp rates of convergence for these two estimators under some smoothness assumptions on the covariance kernel of the covariate and the slope function, showing that these estimators are rate-optimal in a minimax sense under suitable /L/2 norms. Empirical choice of the cut-off level is studied by using simulations.