Tokyo Workshop on International and Development Economics (TWID) 2018

 

 

※ 2月14日現在

※ 特に表記のない限りセミナー発表は英語で行われます(Unless otherwise mentioned, presentations are in ENGLISH)。

※ Workshop background

<今後の予定>

日時

March 5, 2018 (Wednesday) 10:30-12:00

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Sugata Marjit (Centre fro Studies in Social Sciences, Calcutta)

“Distribution Neutral Fiscal Policy with Distortionary Taxes and Transfers” (joint with Sandip Sarkar and Lei Yang)

Abstract

We extend the recent studies [ Marjit, Mukherjee and Sarkar (2018) and Gupta, Marjit and Sarkar (2018)] on Distribution Neutral Fiscal Policy (DNFP) (which, following a rise in inequality, adjusts taxes and transfers to keep the initial inequality unchanged) to the case with distortionary taxes which may directly affect income and hence the tax base. While without distortion DNFP is always feasible and unique under balanced budget condition, we show that feasibility of DNFP or for that matter inequality reducing fiscal policy depends on initial Inequality, inequality in the current period which is sought to be modified by the fiscal policy and growth of income. In particular lower initial inequality is NOT helpful in designing a DNFP. Thus low inequality countries may find it difficult to contain inequality through fiscal policies where as high inequality nations are in a better position to neutralize the growth or trade impact on inequality. A kind of “Inequality Convergence” seems to be plausible.

Marjit.S, A. Mukherjee and S. Sarkar (2018) Pareto Efficiency, Inequality and Distribution Neutral Fiscal Policy –An Overview - in F. Abergel et. al (eds) – New Perspectives and Challenges in Econophysics and Sociophysics ( Springer , Forthcoming)

 


<終了分>

日時

April 11, 2018 (Wednesday) 15:00-16:30 ※日時に注意

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Jiang Yi (Asian Development Bank)

“Place-based Preferential Tax Policy and its Spatial Effects: Evidence from India’s Program on Industrially Backward Districts” [paper]

Abstract

We evaluate a tax-exemption program the Indian government initiated in 1994 to promote manufacturing in 123 industrially backward districts. The way the backward districts were identified enables us to employ a regression discontinuity design to evaluate the impacts of the program. We find that the program has led to a significant increase in firm entry and employment, particularly among the light manufacturing industries, in the better-off backward districts. Meanwhile, the program also resulted in significant displacement effects on districts which were neighboring these backward districts and relatively weak in economic activity. The findings emphasize that the spatial effects of place-based policies deserve greater attention from policy makers.

 

日時

May 29, 2018 (Tuesday) 13:00-14:40 ※日時に注意

(協力:政策ビジョン研究センター・グローバル経済リスクユニット )
(collaborated with PARI, Global Economic Risk Unit)

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Shang-Jin Wei (Columbia University, former ADB chief economist)

"Re-examining the Effects of US-China Trade on US Jobs: A Supply Chain Perspective. "

Abstract

 

 

日時

June 8, 2018 (Friday) 16:50-18:30 ※日時に注意

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Hyeok Jeong (Soul National University)

Finance, Growth, and Inequality: New Evidence from the Panel VAR Perspective (joint with Soyoung Kim) [paper]

Abstract

This study analyzes the relationship among financial development, economic growth, and income inequality using cross-country panel VAR models. Most theoretical models state that these variables interact with one another and generate feedback dynamics. Under the presence of such interactive dynamics, single-equation regression analysis cannot capture the genuine relationship among finance, growth, and inequality. We use the panel VAR models to reflect these interactive feedback dynamics. Our estimation results suggest that the real GDP per capita decreases in response to financial deepening shock in private credit or liquid liability but increases to stock market capitalization shock. The effects of financial deepening on inequality are only weakly positive and short-lived. Positive income shock tends to increase inequality but this effect is not robust to financial deepening measures. However, inequality is harmful for growth controlling for every financial deepening measure.

 

日時

GRIPS-TWID Development Workshop with Rohini Pande
In cooperation with JICA

*Registration is Required

June 20 2018 (Wednesday) 9:00-14:50

場所

JICA Ichigaya Building, 2nd floor, “Large Meeting Room” [Access]

※日時・場所に注意

Registration  

          Register Here by June 12 (Tuesday)


報告



09.00-09.50 Toshiaki Iizuka (University of Tokyo)
“Free for Children? Patient Cost-sharing and Health Care Utilization”
(joint with Hitoshi Shigeoka)

10.00-10.50 Benedict Makanga (The National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS))
“Long-Term Effects of Armed Conflict on Trust and Behavior: Evidence
from Northern Uganda” (joint with Yoko Kijima and Chikako Yamauchi)

11.00-11.50 Yukichi Mano (Hitotsubashi University)
“Spillovers as a Driver to Reduce Ex-post Inequality Generated by
Randomized Experiments: Evidence from an Agricultural Training
Intervention” (joint with Kazushi Takahashi and Keijiro Otsuka)

Lunch break

13.00-13.50 Yuki Higuchi (Nagoya City University)
“Incentives, Self-selection, and Social Norms in the Labor Contract: A
Two-stage Field Experiment in the Philippines” (joint with Jun Goto)

14.00-14.50 Rohini Pande (Rafik Hariri Professor of International
Political Economy at Harvard Kennedy School)
“State Capacity, State Accountability, and Poverty”

 

Abstract

09.00-09.50 Toshiaki Iizuka (University of Tokyo)
“Free for Children? Patient Cost-sharing and Health Care Utilization”
(joint with Hitoshi Shigeoka)

Understanding how patient responds to price is a key to the optimal design of health insurance. However, past studies are predominantly concentrated on the adults and elderly, and surprisingly little is known about children. We examine the effect of patient cost-sharing on health care utilization among children by exploiting newly collected data on drastic subsidy expansion in Japan, with more than 5,000 changes in subsidy status at municipality-age-time level. We find that free care for children significantly increases spending on outpatient care by 22–31%, with the arc-elasticity of –0.1 for all ages 7–14, which is smaller than the conventional estimate for adults. Interestingly, we find little evidence of asymmetric responses to the price changes of the opposite directions, implying that policy makers can reasonably employ existing elasticity estimates, regardless of the direction of the price changes. Finally, we provide suggestive evidence that that increases mostly reflect low-value or costly care. Increases in outpatient visits do not translate to reduction in hospitalization by “avoidable” conditions nor reduction in mortality. Furthermore, we document that inappropriate use of antibiotics and costly off-hour visits increase. Taken together, we conclude that the benefit of such generous subsidy is limited at least in the short-run.

10.00-10.50 Benedict Makanga (The National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS))
“Long-Term Effects of Armed Conflict on Trust and Behavior: Evidence
from Northern Uganda” (joint with Yoko Kijima and Chikako Yamauchi)

This paper investigates the long-term effects of exposure to armed conflict on trust, trustworthiness, and real-life pro-social behaviors by using trust measures elicited from incentivized lab-in-the-field experiments in rural northern Uganda. Overall, unlike prior studies, we do not find that trust is fostered by exposure to armed conflict either at the individual-level (whether one was abducted by a rebel group) or household-level (whether it was displaced to a camp). However, there is a heterogeneous impact among former abductees: those who were abducted when younger exhibit less trust and trustworthiness. Furthermore, those abducted seem to show higher mistrust when playing with partners in the northern region compared with other regions. In the effect on real life behavior, those abducted during conflict are more likely to engage in pro-social behaviors. To understand the seemingly contradicting findings between experimentally elicited trust and real life behavior, we investigate the mechanism, which reveals that assistance received after the conflict and the experience of holding a leadership position while with the rebels are the main channels of fostering pro-social behavior.

11.00-11.50 Yukichi Mano (Hitotsubashi University)
“Spillovers as a Driver to Reduce Ex-post Inequality Generated by
Randomized Experiments: Evidence from an Agricultural Training
Intervention” (joint with Kazushi Takahashi and Keijiro Otsuka)

Randomised experiments ensure equal opportunities but could generate unequal outcomes by treatment status, which can be socially costly. This study demonstrates a sequential intervention to conduct rigorous impact evaluation and subsequently to mitigate ‘experiment-driven’ inequality. Specifically, control farmers were initially restricted from exchanging information with treated farmers, who received rice management training, to satisfy the stable unit treatment value assumption. We then encouraged information exchange between the two groups of farmers one year after the training. We found positive training effects, but initial performance gaps created by our randomised assignment disappeared over time because of information spillovers and, hence, eventually control farmers also benefitted from our experiment.

13.00-13.50 Yuki Higuchi (Nagoya City University)
“Incentives, Self-selection, and Social Norms in the Labor Contract: A
Two-stage Field Experiment in the Philippines” (joint with Jun Goto)

This paper decomposes productivity difference between fi xed wage (FW) contract and individual piece rate (IPR) contract into self-selection and incentive effects, using unique two-stage fi eld experiment. We offered an option of switching to IPR contract for agricultural workers in the Philippines, whose default option has traditionally been FW contract, and we converted random half of those who opted for IPR contract back to the original FW contract. By comparing three groups, i.e., those who chose and worked under IPR contract, those who chose IPR but worked under FW contract, and those who chose and worked under FW contract, we find that the self-selection effect accounts for 60% of the productivity difference between the two types of contract. By combining with the data collected from lab-in-the-field experiment, we find that the choice of IPR contract is associated with social norm parameters, namely, inequity aversion and kinship tax rate. Exploiting our random group assignment, we also find that the influence of social norm is particularly strong when the workers have high probability of repeated interaction with other group members, suggesting the presence of a community enforcement mechanism in agrarian villages.


14.00-14.50 Rohini Pande (Rafik Hariri Professor of International Political Economy at Harvard Kennedy School)
“State Capacity, State Accountability, and Poverty”

 

 

日時

Special TWID on Evidence-based Policy Making
In cooperation with JICA and PARI

*Registration is Required

June 21 2018 (Thursday) 14:00-17:10 ※日時・場所に注意

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)2階 小島コンファレンスルーム
in Kojima Conference Room on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Registration  

          Register Here by June 13 (Wednesday)

報告

 

14:00-14:40 Chikako Yamauchi (The National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS))
"The impact of access to health facilities on maternal care use, travel patterns and health status: Evidence from longitudinal data from Uganda" (joint with Fredrick Manang) [paper]

14:40-15:20 Ryoko Sato (World Bank)
"The causal effect of psychic costs on vaccination take-up: evidence from rural Nigeria" (joint with Yoshito Takasaki)

15:20-16:00 Mai Seki (JICA Research Institute)
"Individualized Self-learning Program to Improve Primary Education: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment in Bangladesh" (Joint with Yasuyuki Sawada, Minhaj Mahmud, An Le, and Hikaru Kawarazaki)

16:00-16:10 Break

16:10-17:10 Pascaline Dupas (Stanford University)
“The Impact of Free Secondary Education: Experimental Evidence from Ghana” (Joint with Esther Duflo and Michael Kremer)

 

Abstract

  14:00-14:40 Chikako Yamauchi (The National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS))
"The impact of access to health facilities on maternal care use, travel patterns and health status: Evidence from longitudinal data from Uganda" (joint with Fredrick Manang)

This paper investigates whether newly established health facilities affect maternal health care use, maternal/child health and travel patterns to facilities. In order to deal with possibly endogenous facility placement, we apply two strategies to the new, decade-long panel data from Uganda: the community-level and mother-level fixed effects models. Several robustness checks support the validity of our results. We find that large facilities and small clinics play differential roles. While openings of large facilities increase the probability of delivery at formal facilities, new clinics increase regular antenatal care usage. The openings of both types of facilities are accompanied by an increased use of less expensive yet more time-consuming transportation modes such as walking, leaving the time to facilities unchanged but reducing the monetary costs of care use. Our heterogeneity analysis further indicates the effects are driven by sub-counties which did not initially have those facilities. The impact of a large facility is also strong in sub-counties which initially had clinics. These results imply the importance of universal coverage of health facilities which ensures each locality to have at least one facility suitable for its population size.

14:40-15:20 Ryoko Sato (World Bank)
"The causal effect of psychic costs on vaccination take-up: evidence from rural Nigeria" (joint with Yoshito Takasaki)

Conventional wisdom says that psychological factors play an important role in the low vaccine take-up in African countries, without rigorous evidence. This paper examines the causal effect of psychic costs of vaccination on its take-up. We conducted a randomized controlled trial in rural Nigeria among women of childbearing age with no experience of tetanus vaccination. Women in the control group were asked to answer a short survey at their house, while women in the treatment group were asked to receive a tetanus vaccine at their house in addition to answering the short survey. The difference in the completion rates of the short survey and vaccination among the treated and the short survey among the controlled captures psychic costs of vaccination. We find that psychic costs of vaccination decrease the vaccine take-up by 12.7 percentage points. We distinguish two types of women with psychic costs of vaccination: passive refusers with zero willingness to pay for the vaccine and active refusers with negative willingness to pay. We find that women with psychic costs are divided almost equally between passive and active refusers.

15:20-16:00 Mai Seki (JICA Research Institute)
"Individualized Self-learning Program to Improve Primary Education: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment in Bangladesh" (Joint with Yasuyuki Sawada, Minhaj Mahmud, An Le, and Hikaru Kawarazaki)

This paper investigates the effectiveness of a globally popular individualized self-learning method in improving the cognitive and non-cognitive abilities of disadvantaged pupils in Bangladesh. Using a randomized control trial design, we study the impact of this method among third and fourth graders studying at non-formal primary schools. The results show that students of both grades in the treatment schools record substantial improvement in their cognitive abilities, after a period of 8 months, compared to students in the control schools. In terms of non-cognitive abilities, we find significant impact on self-confidence of the pupils. These findings are consistent with a longer-term impact found in terms of national level Primary School Certificate exam take-up rates and the exam grades. Moreover, we find a positive impact on the ability of teachers' to assess their students' performance. The predicted benefit-cost ratio exceeds one when the effect continues for more than three to ten years. Overall, these results suggest the wider applicability of a properly designed non-formal education program in solving the learning crisis observed in developing countries.

16:10-17:10 Pascaline Dupas (Stanford University)
“The Impact of Free Secondary Education: Experimental Evidence from Ghana” (Joint with Esther Duflo and Michael Kremer)


 

 

日時

September 18, 2018 (Tuesday) 10:30-12:00 

※日時・場所に注意

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)2階 第3セミナー室
in Seminar Room 3 on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Lígia Pinto (University of Minho)

Perception of Risk of Coastal Erosion: An Exploratory Study on Individual and Cultural Determinants (joint with Susana Oliveira, Ana Costa and Marieta Valente)

[paper]

* This is a preliminary draft. Please do not cite or distribute without permission of the authors.

Abstract
Coastal Erosion is a major issue in many areas of the world. In addition to being present over many coastal areas, erosion is a complex problem in terms of its causes, consequences, and potential coping strategies. Coping strategies and averting behaviour crucially depend on the expected value for individuals, which is affected by monetary gains and losses and by the perceived probability of occurrence of an erosion problem, that is the individual risk perception, which is the main focus of this paper. Perception of risk depends, among others, on variables specific to the type of risk, to the individual, and to the individual´s familiarity and experience with the source of risk. This paper proposes to analyse the risk of coastal erosion perceived by different types of individuals with respect to their relation with the area under study. It further investigates the determinants of risk perception with a special focus on familiarity with risk and risk attitudes.

 

日時

November 8, 2018 (Thursday) 14:55-16:40 

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Ayhan Kose (The World Bank)

“Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies”

Abstract

 

 

日時

December 19, 2018 (Wednesday) 15:00-16:30 

※主催: 金融センター特別セミナー

登録(Registration)


本ワークショップは事前登録制となります。
詳細は金融センター特別セミナーのウェブサイトよりご確認のうえお申込みください。

Registration at CARF Special Seminar Website is required.

 

場所

東京大学国際学術総合研究棟 2階 第7教室
in Lecture Hall 7 on the 2nd floor of International Academic Research Building

報告


Thomas Helbling (the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, covering Australia and New Zealand)


Jérémie Cohen-Setton (the Peterson Institute for International Economics)


“Toward a New Long-term Growth Model for Asia”

 

Abstract

 

 

日時

January 17, 2019 (Thursday) 16:50-18:35 *Schedule Changed

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Tatsuyoshi Okimoto (Australia National University)

"Quantitative Analysis of the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policies in Japan"
Abstract

1) A Regime Switch in the Effects of Japan’s Unconventional Monetary Policies (joint with Ryuzo Miyao) [paper]

Japan is the country with the longest history of implementing unconventional monetary policies, which were first introduced more than fifteen years ago and have since been expanded several times. This study attempts to assess the overall macroeconomic effects of Japan’s unconventional monetary policies based on a stylized block-recursive vector autoregression with a smooth-transition. The results suggest that expansionary unconventional monetary policy shocks have clear macroeconomic effects, leading to a persistent rise in real output and inflation. In addition, we show that these macroeconomic effects became more persistent in recent years including the recent quantitative and qualitative monetary easing period.

 

2) Trend Inflation and Monetary Policy Regimes in Japan [paper]

This paper examines the dynamics of trend in ation in Japan over the last three decades based on the smooth transition Phillips curve model. We nd that there is a strong connection between the trend in ation and monetary policy regimes. The results also suggest that the introduction of the in ation targeting policy and quantitative and qualitative easing in the beginning of 2013 successfully escaped from the de ationary regime, but were not enough to achieve the 2% in ation target. Finally, our results indicate the signi cance of exchange rates in explaining the recent uctuations of in- ation and the importance of oil and stock prices in maintaining the positive trend in ation regime.

 

 

日時

January 29, 2019 (Tuesday) 13:30-18:00

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)2階 第3セミナー室
in Seminar Room 3 on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告


13:30 - 14:30 Konstantin Kucheryavyy (The University of Tokyo)
                       "A Unified Model of International Business Cycles and Trade"

14:40 - 15:40 Tamon Asonuma (International Monetary Fund)
                       "Sovereign Debt Overhang, Expenditure Composition, and Debt Restructurings"

15:50 - 16:50 Kenichi Ueda (The University of Tokyo)
                      "Industrial Revolutions and Global Imbalances"

17:00 - 18:00 Luis Serven (The World Bank)
                       "Swept by the tide? The international comovement of capital flows"

 

Abstract

13:30 - 14:30 Konstantin Kucheryavyy (The University of Tokyo)
"A Unified Model of International Business Cycles and Trade" [paper]

We present a general, competitive open economy business cycles model with capital accumulation, trade in intermediate goods, production externalities in the intermediate and final goods sectors, and iceberg trade costs. Our main theoretical result shows that under appropriate parameter restrictions this model is isomorphic in terms of aggregate equilibrium predictions to dynamic versions of workhorse quantitative models of international trade: Eaton-Kortum, Krugman, and Melitz. The parameter restrictions apply on the overall scale of externalities, the split of externalities between factors of production, and the identity of sectors with externalities. Our quantitative exercise assesses whether various restricted versions of the general model—in forms they are typically considered in the literature—are able to resolve well-known aggregate empirical puzzles in the international business cycles literature. Our theoretical result on isomorphism between models provides insights on why dynamic versions of international trade models fail to resolve these puzzles in so many instances. We then additionally explore in what directions they need to be amended to provide a better fit with the data. We show that an essential feature is negative capital externalities in intermediate goods production. We thus provide a unified theoretical and quantitative treatment of the international business cycles and trade literatures in a general dynamic framework.

14:40 - 15:40 Tamon Asonuma (International Monetary Fund)
                       "Sovereign Debt Overhang, Expenditure Composition, and Debt Restructurings"

15:50 - 16:50 Kenichi Ueda (The University of Tokyo)
"Industrial Revolutions and Global Imbalances" [paper]

Based on the historical data since 1845, we identify a stylized fact, that is, alternating waves in global imbalances generated by sequential industrial revolutions. We develop a new theory to explain this stylized fact. Our theory proposes a development-stage view for the optimal global imbalances. It explains the Lucas Paradox on capital flows as well as rises and falls of the external wealth of nations over time.

 

17:00 - 18:00 Luis Serven (The World Bank)
                       "Swept by the tide? The international comovement of capital flows" [paper]

This paper assesses the international comovement of gross capital flows in a setting simultaneously encompassing aggregate inflows and outflows. It uses as empirical framework a multilevel latentfactor model, implemented on flow data for a large sample of countries over more than three decades. On average, common shocks account for over forty percent of the variance of both inflows and outflows, although with major differences between advanced countries and the rest. Among the former countries, common shocks dominate the pattern of flows, and the same shocks drive both gross inflows and outflows. Among the latter countries, idiosyncratic shocks tend to play the leading role, and gross inflows exhibit less commonality with outflows. The latent factors summarizing common shocks configure an international financial cycle that closely reflects the trends in a handful of global ‘push’ variables. Recursive estimation of the factor model reveals that the exposure of countries’ flows to the international cycle rose sharply prior to the global financial crisis, particularly for advanced countries, and declined slightly afterwards. Exposure to the cycle is robustly related to countries’ external financial openness and the (lack of) flexibility of their exchange rate regime.

 

日時

February 6, 2019 (Wednesday) 10:30-12:00

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
Wataru Miyamoto (University of Hong Kong)
International Linkages and the Changing Nature of International Business Cycles (joint with Thuy Lan Nguyen) [paper]
Abstract

We quantify the e ects of changes in international input-output linkages on the nature of business cycles. We build a multi-sector multi-country international business cycle model that matches the input-output structure within and across countries. We nd that, in our 23 countries sample with manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, changes in the international input- output linkages between 1970 and 2007 causes a 15% drop in output volatility in a median country, but the e ects are heterogeneous across countries. Changing international linkages tend to stabilize output in most countries, while leading to a higher risk of a global recession.

 

日時

February 8, 2019 (Friday) 16:00-17:30

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
Taejong Kim (KDI School of Public Policy and Management)
"Estimating Long-term Impacts of Sustained National Deworming in South
Korea: 1969-1995"
Abstract