Tokyo Workshop on International Development 2017

 

 

※ 11月17日現在

※ 特に表記のない限りセミナー発表は英語で行われます(Unless otherwise mentioned, presentations are in ENGLISH)。

※ Workshop background

<今後の予定>

日時

November 20, 2017 (Monday) 16:50-18:35 ※会場に注意

※共催:マクロ経済学ワークショップ

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第2セミナー室
in Seminar Room 2 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Roger Nord (International Monetary Fund)

Regional Economic Outlook for Sub Sahara Africa: Fiscal Adjustment and Economic Diversification [paper]

Abstract

 

 

日時

November 27, 2017 (Monday) 10:30-12:00

※主催:ミクロ実証分析ワークショップ

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Tomomi Tanaka (World Bank)

The impacts of conflicts, economic shocks, and death on depression, economic activities and human capital investment in Nigeria (joint with Julian Jamison, Kevin Robert McGee, Gbemisola Oseni, Julie Perng, Ryoko Sato, Renos Vakis)

Abstract

This paper examines the impacts of conflicts, economic shocks, and death on depression, and investigates whether depression and shocks affect economic activities and investment on children’s education. The results of our analysis suggest experiencing any of the shocks (conflict, death and economic shocks) impact the level of depression, as well as an increased probability of being chronically depressed, after controlling for consumption. The effect of idiosyncratic or personal shocks and conflicts on depression are worth around $16.34 USD and $34.38 USD (around 4.4% of the average per capita consumption), respectively. Experience of conflicts in the past two years has the largest and strongest impacts on the respondent’s depression, as it is associated with a nearly 88% increase in the probability of being depressed. In experimental evidence, people who experienced conflicts were not affected by a priming of their past conflicts, deaths, and shocks, suggesting people do not need to be reminded about their experience of conflicts because experiencing conflicts is enough to lead to an increased probability of depression without a reminder. On the other hand, those with a personal shock who were primed had an increased probability of being classified as chronically depressed of 27.3%. Depression is associated with lower labor participation and child educational investment. Depressed people have a lower likelihood of engaging in any work, mainly in agricultural (particularly for men) and non-farm work (particularly for women). Parental depression is correlated with a lower likelihood that s/he spends any money on educational expenditures for his/her children.

 


<終了分>

日時

April 10, 2017 (Monday) 1) 16:30-17:30, 2) 17:40-18:40

※共催:ミクロ経済学ワークショップ

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

1) 16:30-17:30 Yasuyuki Sawada (Asian Development Bank)
Impact Assessment of Infrastructure Projects on Poverty Reduction

References)
1) https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/154248/adbi-wp511.pdf

2) Yasuyuki Sawada, Ryuji Kasahara, Keitaro Aoyagi, Masahiro Shoji and Mika Ueyama (2013) "Modes of Collective Action in Village Economies: Evidence from Natural and Artefactual Field Experiments in a Developing Country," Asian Development Review 30(1), 31-51, MIT Press for Asian Development Bank. [paper]

 

2) 17:40-18:40 Nobuhiko Fuwa (The University of Tokyo)
Disasters and Commitments: Evidence from Japan and the Philippines


Abstract)
A number of recent studies have investigated the impact of disaster experience on individual preference parameters such as risk aversion and time discount rate. Yet, there are two remaining issues in the literature: First, the parameter under investigations is different depending on the study, generating largely mixed empirical results; and second, there is no theoretical underpinning to interpret these empirical findings. We aim to bridge these gaps and to solve the "measurement without theory" problem in the existing literature on individual preferences and disasters by investigating the impact of natural disasters on present bias, time discount, and intertemporal elasticity of substitution parameters, which are elicited in an integrated manner by a new experimental technique called the Convex Time Budget (CTB) experiments developed by Andreoni and Sprenger (2012) and Andreoni, Kuhn, and Sprenger (2013). Based on this approach, we employ unique experimental data collected from village in the Philippines, which was hit by a strong monsoon flood, Habagat, in 2012 and from the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami affected Iwanuma City in Japan to investigate the overall impacts of natural disasters on individual preferences and decisions. Three common empirical results emerge: First, the CTB experiment offers reasonable levels of time discounting, moderate curvature and quasihyperbolic discounting in the whole sample. Second, we find that being hit by the flood or the tsunami makes an individual significantly more present-biased than those who are unaffected by the disaster. Finally, present-biasness or hyperbolic discounting is correlated with harmful behaviors: gambling and drinking in the Philippines and deteriorated health behavior among the elders in Iwanuma City. These findings provide important policy implications in helping disaster victims. Commitment devices seem to be indispensable to mitigate the negative consequences of reinforced present biasness.

 

日時

April 24, 2017 (Monday) 16:50-18:35

主催: GraSPP Public Policy Research Seminar

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Yvonne Jie Chen (National University of Singapore)

Early life exposure to tap water and the development of cognitive skils (Joint with Li Li and Yun Xiao) [paper]

Abstract

To improve drinking water accessibility and safety in rural China, the Chinese government launched the rural drinking water program in the 1980s. As part of the program, tap water infrastructure has been constructed in rural areas to supply tap water to rural residents. This policy intervention provides a unique opportunity to examine the impact of early life exposure to tap water on children’s cognitive achievement in later life. Using data extracted from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), we find that one additional year of exposure to tap water in early life increases average cognitive test score by 0.109 standard deviations for a sample of rural children aged 10-15 in 2010. The effect is larger for children whose fathers are less-educated. Event study estimates confirm that the beneficial impacts are concentrated in early life with limited additional impact after the time window.

 

日時

June 19, 2017 (Monday) 10:30-12:00

※主催:ミクロ実証分析ワークショップ

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Jamie McCasland (University of British Columbia)

Are Small Firms Labor Constrained? Experimental Evidence from Ghana (joint with Morgan Hardy)

Abstract

 

 

日時

July 24, 2017 (Monday) 10:30-12:00

※主催:ミクロ実証分析ワークショップ

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Ryoko Sato (World Bank)

Income tax collection and non-compliance in Ghana (joint with Edward Asiedu, Chuqiao Bi, Dan Pavelesku and Tomomi Tanaka) [paper]

 

Tomomi Tanaka (World Bank)

Monetary and non-monetary poverty in urban slums in Accra: Combining geospatial data and machine learning to study urban poverty (joint with Ryan Engstrom, Dan Pavelesku and Ayago Wambile) [paper]

Abstract

Ryoko Sato (World Bank)

Income tax collection and non-compliance in Ghana (joint with Edward Asiedu, Chuqiao Bi, Dan Pavelesku and Tomomi Tanaka)

Ghana’s tax collection is very low compared with other lower middle-income countries. The revenue from income tax is particularly low, lower than the average of low-income countries. Non-compliance of tax payments is an urgent issue in Ghana, as the government has been suffering from a widening fiscal deficit and a rising debt burden. This paper combines data from household surveys, the business census, and administrative income tax data, and examines the scale of non-compliance and potential revenue gains from the enforcement of tax collection in Ghana. Business census data suggests the actual number of formal sector workers is higher than the number of formal sector workers reported both in the household survey and the administrative income tax data in Ghana. The income tax files do not include the individuals who work for formal sector firms which failed to file PAYE (Pay As You Earn), whereas the household data suffers from under-sampling and under-reporting of high-wage income earners. By combining the household survey data and the administrative income tax data, and adjusting the number of formal sector workers using the business census, we reconstruct the distribution of wage earners in the formal sector who are subject to income tax, and estimate potential income tax revenue gain from the enforcement of tax collection. We find the income tax revenue could have been higher by 582 million Cedi (equivalent to 0.5 percent of the GDP) if everyone who filed income tax in 2014 had paid the full amounts of income tax due. If all formal sector firms and organizations, regardless of whether they actually filed income tax or not in 2016 paid the full amounts of PAYE for all their employees, the income tax revenue could have been higher by 1.2 billion Cedi (equivalent to 1.4 percent of GDP). In 2016, we observe a further reduction of income tax revenue. The total income tax revenue could have been higher by 3.6 billion Cedi (2.2 percent of GDP) if all formal sector firms and organizations, regardless of whether they actually filed income tax or not in 2016, paid the full amounts of PAYE for all their employees.

Tomomi Tanaka (World Bank)

Monetary and non-monetary poverty in urban slums in Accra: Combining geospatial data and machine learning to study urban poverty (joint with Ryan Engstrom, Dan Pavelesku and Ayago Wambile)

As Sub-Saharan Africa continues to urbanize, slum populations are growing at 4.5 percent per year. Providing housing to slum dwellers, protecting them from natural disasters and diseases, and connecting them to jobs and services through improved infrastructure are urgent policy issues in many Sub-Saharan African cities. Identifying the location and living conditions of slums is a critical step toward designing effective urban policies. By combining household survey data and census data with high spatial resolution satellite imagery and other geospatial data using multiple methodologies, including machine learning, we attempt to define slums objectively within the city of Accra. Within these defined slum areas, the patterns of monetary and non-monetary poverty are assessed. Poverty rates are estimated at the neighborhood level and indicate that living in slums is strongly correlated with higher monetary poverty, higher fertility among women, and lower school attendance among children. Poverty is more prevalent in communities in areas of lower elevation, which in Accra are generally flood-prone areas. Ethnic, religious, and regional ties are important reasons people live in slums for long periods of time. People born in the community and ethnic majorities are more likely to get jobs in the manufacturing sector, while ethnic minorities, and new migrants tend to get jobs in the wholesale sector in poorer slum communities. Overall, the results indicate a wide range in economic opportunities between slum communities. These results have important policy implications and are crucial to understand the impact of social networks and how they generate economic opportunities in slums so that effective urban policies can be designed.

 

日時

 

November 10, 2017 (Friday) 16:00-18:00

※日時・場所に注意

**** Presentation will be in English ****

 

場所

 

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)2階 小島コンファレンスルーム
in Kojima Conference Room on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

 

報告

 

 

16:00-17:00 Manabu Nose (The University of Tokyo)

The Impact of Disaster Aid on Consumption and Wealth Distributions: Evidence from Indonesia

 

 

17:00-18:00 Yasuyuki Sawada (Chief Economist, Asian Development Bank)

Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2017 Update: Sustaining Development Through Public-Private Partnership

[Main Report]

[Press Release (English) (Japanese)]

 

 

Abstract

16:00-17:00 Manabu Nose (The University of Tokyo)
The Impact of Disaster Aid on Consumption and Wealth Distributions: Evidence from Indonesia

This paper examines the effect of disaster aid on consumption and wealth distributions in Aceh, Indonesia using household panel data covering seven years after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. In-kind transfer programs faced quality failures, especially when new shared boat ownership institution was imposed by donors, resulting in significant welfare loss among beneficiaries. The proliferation in aid activities created only temporary windfalls, which was lost upon the termination of aid. The disaster aid failed to give "big push" in restoring the lives of the tsunami victims, resulting in prolonged poverty. The quantile regression highlights large variance in consumption growth among households, leaving unskilled and credit constrained families behind with low-paying occupations.

 

17:00-18:00 Yasuyuki Sawada (Chief Economist, Asian Development Bank)
Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2017 Update: Sustaining Development Through Public-Private Partnership

Growth prospects for developing Asia are looking up, bolstered by a revival in world trade and strong momentum in the People’s Republic of China. Rebounds in international food and fuel prices are gentler than expected, helping to contain consumer price pressures. Inflation is likely to dip to 2.4% in 2017, or 0.1 percentage points off the 2016 rate, and pick up to 2.9% in 2018. Risks to the outlook have become more balanced, as the advanced economies have so far avoided sharp, unexpected changes to their macroeconomic policies. Looking ahead, developing Asia must mobilize $1.7 trillion annually to meet its infrastructure needs. Public–private partnership can help fill the financing gap by allocating risk to the party best able to manage it. The success of the approach depends on governments identifying projects suitable for it, engaging qualified private partners, and instituting the right process.

主催:
    CIRJE Special Seminar