April 8, 2016 (Friday) 11:00-12:00　※日時に注意

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Junsen Zhang (Chinese University of Hong Kong)

"Hard to Get: The Scarcity of Women and the Competition for High-Income Men in Chinese Cities"

There have been increasing reports in China of the difficulties of elite women to find suitable mates despite the growing scarcity of women. To help explain this, we consider the influence of women's preference for men who have higher incomes than themselves. We show that the key characteristic of this "reference dependent preference" (RDP) is to escalate the competition women face as their incomes increase by reducing the pool of men they desire while simultaneously expanding the pool of other women who desire those men. Consequently, high-income women can be made worse off when high-income men are even richer or more plentiful, because both increase the returns to poorer women in competing for those men.We exploit variations in local sex ratios and men's incomes across major cities in China to test for changes in the online dating search intensity, marriage probability, and household bargaining power of women. As predicted, the search intensity, singles probability, and share of housework of only the high-income women increase significantly with the incomes and availability of men. Our findings with online dating, census, and time-use data suggest that the reported difficulties of elite women are likely the most conspicuous consequences of the competitive effects of women’s RDP for mate income.

主催：Tokyo Workshop on International Development

May 9, 2016 (Monday) 12:10-13:00

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Myoung-Jae Lee（Korea University）

Least Squares Estimator for Treatment Effects Using Propensity-Score Projection Residuals

In analyzing the effects of a non-randomized treatment, propensity score (PS) matching is widely used to control covariates, which requires several arbitrary decisions to be made by the user; e.g., how many matched subjects to use, and how to choose them. This paper proposes a much easier estimation and inference based on a simple least squares estimator (LSE), where the treatment and response variables are replaced by their PS projection residuals. Compared with other estimators (PS matching, regression imputation, weighting, and doubly robust estimators), the LSE is numerically stable and much easier to implement with hardly any decision required by the user, and it has a simple valid asymptotic variance estimator that works well in small sam- ples. Also, the LSE can be extended to multiple treatments by replacing the treatment dummies with their ‘generalized PS’projection residuals. A simulation study demon- strates that the LSE performs far better than the other estimators— often better by triple digit percentages.

May 23, 2016 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Jungmin Lee（Seoul National University）

Does Exposure Reduce Gender Bias in Politics? Evidence from A Non-Affirmative Action Natural Experiment [paper]

We examine whether prior exposure to female politicians leads to subsequent electoral gains for women. We exploit random variation arising from a non-affirmative action natural experiment. In Korea, for the 2006 local council election, which was based on a multi-member district system, ballot numbers were assigned to candidates according to the alphabetical order of their names when there were multiple candidates from a party. That peculiar rule increased elected female members accidentally in certain districts, which in turn increased the number for female candidates and their probability of winning in the next election. However, we find that the impacts are significant only in the districts where no single party is dominant and, furthermore, the impacts are driven by the incumbency advantage. And we find no positive effect on non-incumbent female candidates and even adverse impacts on independent female candidates and females in the districts where there is no competition between major parties.

May 30, 2016 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

Giorgio Brunello（University of Padova）

* Seminar Cancelled / 開催中止となりました。

May 30, 2016 (Monday) 16:50-18:30　※時間に注意

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Keisuke Hirano（University of Arizona）

Forecasting with Model Uncertainty: Representations and Risk Reduction [paper]

We consider forecasting with uncertainty about the choice of predictor variables. The researcher wants to select a model, estimate the parameters, and use the parameter estimates for forecasting. We investigate the distributional properties of a number of different schemes for model choice and parameter estimation: in-sample model selection using the Akaike information criterion, out-of sample model selection, and splitting the data into subsamples for model selection and parameter estimation. Using a weak-predict or local asymptotic scheme, we provide a representation result that facilitates comparison of the distributional properties of the procedures and their associated forecast risks. We develop a simulation procedure that improves the accuracy of the out-of-sample and split-sample methods uniformly over the local parameter space. We also examine how bootstrap aggregation (bagging) affects the local asymptotic risk of the estimators and their associated forecasts. Numerically, we　find that for many values of the local parameter, the out-of-sample and split-sample schemes perform poorly if implemented in the conventional way. But they perform well, if implemented in conjunction with our risk-reduction method or bagging.

June 1, 2016 (Wednesday) 16:50-18:35　※日時に注意

主催：Tokyo Workshop on International Development

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Nancy Qian (Yale University)

The determinants of local elections in China: Evidence from theory and empirics

June 6, 2016 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Shintaro Yamaguchi（McMaster University）

Crowding-Out Effect of Subsidized Childcare (joint with Yukiko Asai and Ryo Kambayashi) [paper]

We estimate the causal effects of childcare availability on the maternal employment rate using prefecture panel data constructed from the Japanese quinquennial census 1990-2010. We find that childcare availability did not increase maternal employment, because the expansion of accredited childcare crowded out informal childcare provided by grandparents. However, as more and more families do not live with grandparents who used to take care of grandchildren, this crowding effect became weaker in the 2000's.

June 27, 2016 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

主催：Tokyo Workshop on International Development

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Ahram Moon (University of Southern California)

Demand Systems of Private Tutoring in South Korea

July 8, 2016 (Friday) 16:50-18:35　
※日時に注意

主催：応用統計ワークショップ

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Tetsuya Kaji （Massachusetts Institute of Technology）

Post-Observation Sample Selection and Integrable Empirical Processes

Many empirical researches entail estimators that come from sample selection after observation; one might give estimates without outliers together with estimates with full sample to claim that his results are not the spurious consequence of a handful of rare observations; one might contrast the treatment effects of many subgroups, say poverty levels, to derive effective policy implications; one might consider the joint variation of the expected return and the conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of a portfolio to better decide investment. Not much is known, however, as to the joint statistical properties of such estimators, and hence, the discussion has been prone to heuristics. This paper provides a statistical framework to deal with these estimators jointly, using what I call the /integrable empirical processes/. The proposed theory allows one to conduct a formal statistical test of outlier sensitivity, of multigroup analyses, or derive the joint distribution of many conditional returns of a portfolio. From a statistical perspective, the theory bridges the gap between the multivariate central limit theorems and the uniform central limit theorems. As an empirical application, I revisit the outlier robustness analyses discussed in Alatas et al. (2016) and Acemoglu et al. (2016).

July 11, 2016 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Johannes Boehm（Sciences Po）

The Impact of Contract Enforcement Costs on Outsourcing and Aggregate Productivity [paper]

Legal institutions aect economic outcomes, but how much? This paper documents how costly supplier contract enforcement shapes firm boundaries, and quantifies the impact of this transaction cost on aggregate productivity and welfare. I embed a contracting game between a buyer and a supplier in a general-equilibrium closed-economy Eaton-Kortum-type model. Contract enforcement costs lead suppliers to underproduce. Thus, firms will perform more of the production process in-house instead of outsourcing it. On a macroeconomic scale, in countries with slow and costly courts, firms should buy relatively less inputs from sectors whose products are more specific to the buyer-seller relationship. I first present reduced-form evidence for this hypothesis using cross-country regressions. I use microdata on case law from the United States to construct a new measure of relationship-specificity by sector-pairs. This allows me to control for productivity dierences across countries and sectors and to identify the eect of contracting frictions on industry structure. I then proceed to structurally estimate the key parameters of my macro-model. Using a set of counterfactual experiments, I investigate the role of contracting frictions in shaping productivity and income per capita across countries. Setting enforcement costs to US levels would increase real income by an average of 7.5 percent across all countries, and by an average of 15.3 percent across low-income countries. Hence, transaction costs and the determinants of firm boundaries are important for countries' aggregate level of development.

July 25, 2016 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Mitsukuni Nishida（Johns Hopkins University）

The Determinants and Consequences of Search Cost Heterogeneity: Evidence from Local Gasoline Markets (joint with Marc Remer) [paper]

Information frictions play a key role in an array of economic activities and are frequently incorporated into formal models as search costs. However, little is known about the underlying source of consumer search costs and how heterogeneous they are across consumers and markets. This paper documents the sources and magnitude of heterogeneity in consumer search costs and analyzes how the heterogeneity shapes firms’pricing and consumers’search behavior. By identifying hundreds of geographically isolated markets, we are the first to estimate the distribution of consumer search costs for many geographic markets. We directly recover the distribution of consumer search costs market by market using retail gasoline price data in the United States. We …find that the distribution of consumer search costs varies significantly across geographic markets and that the distribution of household income is closely associated with the search cost distribution. We find that a policy that reduces both the standard deviation and mean of the search cost distribution has heterogeneous and potentially unintended consequences on prices across markets.

September 26, 2016 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

※　応用統計ワークショップと共催

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Tatsushi Oka（National University of Singapore）

Quantile Treatment Effects in Difference in Differences Models under Dependence Restrictions and with only Two Time Periods (with Brant Callaway and Tong Li)

This paper shows that the Quantile Treatment Effect on the Treated (QTT) can be identified using a combination of (i) a Distributional Difference in Differences Assumption and (ii) an assumption on the dependence between the change in untreated potential outcomes and the initial level of untreated potential outcomes for the treated group. The second assumption recovers the unknown dependence from the observed dependence for the untreated group. This result extends previous research that required at least three periods of data for identifying the QTT under a similar setup. We also provide identification results when the assumptions hold only after conditioning on observed covariates. Under an additional assumption, we also show that the QTT is identified when only repeated cross sections are available. Finally, we consider estimation and inference--we develop uniform confidence intervals and show the validity of an exchangeable bootstrap procedure.

October 3, 2016 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Hiroaki Miyamoto（University of Tokyo）

Employment and hours over the business cycle in a model with search frictions (joint with Noritaka Kudoh and Masaru Sasaki) [paper]

This paper studies a labor market search-matching model with multi-worker firms to investigate how firms utilize employment and hours of work over the business cycle. The earnings function derived from intra-firm bargaining determines the costs of utilizing the two margins of labor adjustment. We calibrate the model for the Japanese labor market, in which fluctuations in hours of work account for 79 percent of the variations in total labor input. The model replicates much of the fluctuations in total labor input, employment, and hours per employee without wage rigidity even though the source of fluctuations is total factor productivity (TFP) alone. If hours of work are determined by bargaining, then the intensive margin makes the unemployment volatility puzzle much harder to resolve.

October 17, 2016 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Stephan Litschig（The National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)）

Can Audits Backfire? Evidence form Public Procurement in Chile (joint with Maria Paula Gerardino, Ben Olken and Dina Pomeranz)

Auditing processes are intended to monitor compliance with existing rules. However, specific audit protocols may by themselves create unintended impacts and incentives. This paper investigates the eff ects of 2011 and 2012 audits in Chile on public entities' subsequent public procurement practices. Using a regression discontinuity design based on a scoring rule of the national auditing agency, we fi nd that being audited leads public entities to decrease their use of auctions by about 35 to 55 percentage points and to increase the use of direct contracts correspondingly. While the national procurement legislation is designed to promote the use of transparent and competitive auctions rather than direct contracting, the audit protocol of the national comptroller agency actually leads to more scrutiny and a higher probability of being found guilty of an infraction in the procurement process for auctions than for direct contracts. In order to further test the underlying mechanism, we develop a new econometric approach to conduct subgroup analysis in regression discontinuity designs which allows to hold observables across subgroups constant.

GRIPS‐UTokyo Workshop [Program]

2016年10月28日（金　Friday） 8:30-12:10

※Venue has been changed. 会場が変更いたしました。

共催：ミクロ経済学ワークショップ

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Japan Society of Promotion of Science (#16H06322, PI: Kyoji Fukao, Hitotsubashi University) Institute of Statistical Research

Registration is required, For details, please see Program.

 

8:30 am         Reception  

9:00 am         Susan Dynarski (University of Michigan)
                      Are Expectations Alone Enough? Estimating the Effect of A Mandatory
                      College-Prep Curriculum in Michigan  (Joint with Brian Jacob, Kenneth
                      Frank and Barbara Schneider)　

10:10 am       Break  

10:30 am       Irineu de Carvalho Filho (IMF), Stephan Litschig (GRIPS)
                      Long‐run Impacts of Intergovernmental Transfers  

11:20 am      Hideo Akabayashi (Keio Universtiy),  Hiroko Araki (Kindai University),  Ryuichi Tanaka (University of Tokyo)
                      Estimating Causal Effects of After-School Education
                      Voucher on Children’s Outcomes and Behavior  

12:10 pm      Lunch

 

November 7, 2016 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Min-Jen Lin（National Taiwan University）

Can Partisan News Shift Political Preference and Voting Behavior? Experimental Evidence from Taiwan’s General Election 2016

November 21, 2016 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Nuria Rodriguez-Planas（City University of New York）

Social Norms and Teenage Smoking: The Dark Side of Gender Equality (joint with Anna Sanz-de-Galdeano) [paper]

This paper is the first to provide evidence that cultural attitudes towards gender equality affect behaviors with potentially devastating health consequences, and that they do so differently for male and female teenagers. In particular, we show that descending from more gender-equal societies makes girls relatively more prone to smoke than boys. Using data from over 6,000 second-generation immigrant teenagers coming from 45 different countries of ancestry and living in Spain, we find that the higher the degree of gender equality in the country of ancestry, the higher the likelihood that immigrant girls smoke relative to boys, even after we control for parental, sibling, and peer smoking. Importantly, we uncover similar patterns when analyzing other risky behaviors such as drinking or smoking marijuana. This reinforces the idea that more gender-equal social norms may come at an extra cost to women’s health, as they increasingly engage in risky behaviors (beyond smoking) traditionally more prevalent among men.

November 21, 2016 (Monday) 16:50-18:35 ※時間に注意

 

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Rasmus Lentz（University of Wisconsin-Madison）

On Worker and Firm Heterogeneity in Wages and Employment Mobility: Evidence from Danish Register Data (joint with Suphanit Piyapromdee and Jean-Marc Robin)

In this paper, we propose an estimation method that allows for unrestricted interactions between worker and firm unobserved characteristics in both wages and the mobility patterns. Related to Bonhomme, Lamadon and Manresa (2014) (BLM), our method identifies double sided unobserved heterogeneity through an application of the EM-algorithm where the firm classification is repeatedly updated so as to improve on the likelihood function. In Monte Carlo simulations we demonstrate that the cyclic updating of the firm classification provides a significant performance improvement. Firm classification is a result of both wage and mobility patterns in the data. We estimate the model on Danish matched employer-employee data for the period 1985-2011. The estimation includes gender, education, age and time controls. We find an increased sorting pattern over time, although overall sorting is modest. The wage gap between genders is decreasing over time. The contribution to the wage gap from mobility differences between the genders is also decreasing over time.

マクロ経済学ワークショップと共催

November 28, 2016 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Tong Li（Vanderbilt University）

A Partial Identi…fication Subnetwork Approach to
Discrete Games in Large Networks: An Application to
Quantifying Peer Effects (joint with Li Zhao) [paper]

This paper studies identification and estimation of discrete games in large networks, with an application to peer effects on smoking in friend networks. Due to the presence of multiple equilibria, the model is not point identified. We adopt the partial identification approach by constructing moment inequalities on choice probabilities of subnetworks. Doing so not only significantly reduces the computational cost, but also enables us to find consistent estimator of the moment conditions even when the network is large and the friendship relationship structure varies significantly among networks. Monte Carlo studies are conducted to evaluate the performance of the subnetwork approach. In the application using the Add Health data, we find significant and positive peer effects on smoking.

※　以下のセミナーは都合により中止となりました。
　　　This seminar schedule has been cancelled.

December 5, 2016 (Monday) 12:00-13:15

James Andreoni （University of California, San Diego）

Using Preference Estimates to Customize Incentives: An Application to Polio Vaccination Drives in Pakistan (joint with Michael Callen, Karrar Hussain, Muhammad Yasir Khan, and Charles Sprenger)

Tokyo Workshop on International Development　と共催

December 12, 2016 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Anthony Wray（Hitotsubashi University）

Long-run Consequences of Exposure to Natural Disasters (joint with Krzysztof Karbownik) [paper]

We utilize the individual-level World War I Draft Registration Cards matched to late-nineteenth century hurricane paths and the 1940 U.S. Census to explore whether fetal and early childhood exposure to stress caused by hurricanes affects human capital development and labor market outcomes in adulthood. Difference-in-differences estimates indicate that white males who were born in the South and experienced a hurricane either in utero or as infants had lower income at ages 42 to 53. They are robust to alternate specifications of either the treatment or outcome variables, as well as changes in the tolerance for imperfectly matched historical data.

December 13, 2016 (Tuesday) 12:10-13:20 ※曜日に注意

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Hyuncheol Bryant Kim （Cornell University）

Is Knowing Half the Battle? Impacts of Risk Information from Health Screening (joint with Wilfredo Lim and Suejin Lee)

主催： Tokyo Workshop on International Development　

December 26, 2016 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Kosuke Uetake（Yale University）

Working under Search and Information Frictions: Evidence from An Online Labor Market Experiment (joint with Yusuke Narita)

January 23, 2017 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Dmitri K. Koustas (University of California at Berkeley)

Labor Supply as Consumption Insurance: Theory and Evidence from the Gig Economy

For many households, a set of frictions prevent optimal adjustment to economic shocks: 1) credit constraints; 2) adjustment costs on assets; and 3) hours constraints/ job search frictions. The implications of these frictions have been recorded in much of the empirical literature on consumption: "excess smoothness" in committed consumption and labor supply that forces "excess sensitivity" in non-committed consumption, even to transitory shocks. This paper explores the welfare implications of substantially reducing these frictions. As a source of identification, I focus on the sudden rise of the "gig economy" in the United States (firms such as "Uber" and "Airbnb"). On the supply side, this sector is characterized by schedule flexibility, no minimum hours thresholds, and minimal search and transactions costs; accordingly, the flexibility afforded by gig economy jobs has reduced these frictions to near zero for participating households. I also explore a simple model that captures salient features of the data, which I use to contextualize my reduced-form findings and to estimate the welfare benefits of reducing frictions on labor supply. My results suggest significant welfare improvements for households from gig economy jobs, on par with the total elimination of credit constraints, ”although "second-best" because of the disutility of labor.

January 31, 2017 (Tuesday) 16:50-18:35 　※日時に注意

※主催：ミクロ経済学ワークショップ

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Patrick Puhani (Leibniz University of Hannover)

Procedural Fairness and Disparate Impacts - Testing for Discrimination Using Anonymous Entry Exams and Job Performance Measures As Benchmarks

February 6, 2017 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

※共催：ミクロ経済学ワークショップ

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Chamna Yoon (City University of New York)

Waiting for Affordable Housing (joint with Holger Sieg) [paper]

We develop a new dynamic equilibrium model of housing markets for low- and moderate-income households, which is consistent with the key supply restrictions and search frictions that arise in rental markets for public and affordable housing. We estimate the model using data collected by the New York Housing Vacancy Survey in 2011. We find that having access to public (rent stabilized) housing increases household welfare by up to $60,000 ($50,000). The estimated average time on the waitlist for public housing in Manhattan is 19 years. The search frictions in the rent stabilized market imply an average search time of four years.

February 20, 2017 (Monday) 12:10-13:10

※共催：ミクロ経済学ワークショップ

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Yao Luo (University of Toronto)

Bundling and Nonlinear Pricing in Telecommunications [paper]

This paper studies bundling and price discrimination by a multiproduct firm selling internet and phone services in an imperfect information setting. I derive the optimal selling mechanism, and provide primitive conditions under which different bundling strategies arise. Exploiting the optimality conditions of both the firm and the consumer, I show that the model structure is nonparametrically identified and propose a three-step semiparametric estimation procedure. An application to China Telecom data shows that mixed bundling is beneficial to both the firm and the consumer relative to component pricing.

March 7, 2017 (Tuesday) 16:50-18:30※日時に注意

※　共催：ミクロ経済学ワークショップ・応用統計ワークショップ

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Shakeeb Khan (Duke University)

Adaptive Inference in Semiparametric Multinomial Response Models (joint with F. Ouyang and E. Tamer)

We consider identification, estimation and inference on regression coefficients in semi parametric multinomial response models. Our identification result is constructive and estimation is based on a localized rank objective function, loosely analogous to that used in Abrevaya, Hausman, and Khan (2010). We we show this achieves sharp identification which is in contrast to existing procedures in the literature such as, for example, Ahn, Powell, Ichimura, and Ruud (2014). In that sense, our procedure is adaptive (Khan and Tamer (2009)) in the sense that it provides an estimator of the sharp set when point identification does not hold, and a consistent point estimator when it does. Furthermore, our rank procedure extends to panel data settings for inference in models with fixed e↵ects, including dynamic panel models with lagged dependent variables as covariates. A simulation study establishes adequate finite sample properties of our new procedures.

March 13, 2017 (Monday) 10:30-12:00 ※時間に注意

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 （小島ホール）１階 第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

Takao Kato (Colgate University)

Working Hours and Top Management Appointments: Evidence from Linked Employer-Employee Data (joint with Anders Frederiksen and Nina Smith)

Merging Danish register-based linked employer-employee data with data from the Danish Labor Force Survey over 1994-2010, we provide new and robust evidence on the importance of working hours for subsequent career success (measured by top management appointments). Specifically we find evidence for a positive relationship between work hours and the probability of receiving a top management appointment for both men and women. We also establish that the hours-appointment relation is convex and that the convexity is more pronounced for men. Furthermore Danish registry data include the population of all Danish workers, and this universal coverage allows us to identify every individual worker’s coworkers with unusual precision, and provide evidence suggesting that by working longer than his/her coworkers in the same workplace, the worker will be able to raise the odds of winning a top management appointment, which is consistent with tournament theory (relative performance incentive). Finally it is found to be not only the quantity of working hours but also the nature of working hours that matters for the odds of top management appointments; (i) working in evenings and weekends as compared to working during weekday daytime are more beneficial for top management appointments; (ii) the persistence of long working hours helps raise the odds of top management appointments; (iii) the beneficial effect of long working hours for top management appointments tends to be long-lasting; and (iv) those who report working longer than they desire have higher odds of top management appointments which appear to be congruous with inefficient equilibrium suggested by rat race theory.