Discussion Papers 2025

CIRJE-F-1253	"Low Fertility, Ageing Buildings, and School Congestion in the Philippines: Tailwinds, Headwinds, and Some Policy Options"
Author Name	Abrigo, Michael R.M., Tania Dew S. Perez, Noel Angelo M. Quejada Erwin Doroteo Justien C. Daga, Katha Ma-i Estopace Edmar E. Lingatong, Charlotte Marjorie L. Relos, Jesusa L. Paquibot, Dianne Stephanie A. Gavan
Date	July 2025
Full Paper	PDF file
Remarks

Abstract
We estimate the future demand for public school classrooms using new school children population projections for 82 provinces and 33 urbanized cities of the Philippines up to 2060. A return to replacement-level fertility from the current 1.9 total fertility rate (TFR) is expected to ease demand for public school classrooms, except in BARMM, where the population of school-age children is projected to continue increasing. Below replacement TFR will likely result in greater easing of classroom congestion in public schools. However, the large school infrastructure backlogs and ageing of existing school buildings are expected to remain important issues in the future despite potential tailwinds from low fertility. We also highlight potential contributing factors to current classroom congestions.
Keywords: school infrastructure, low fertility, population projection

Abstract

We estimate the future demand for public school classrooms using new school children population projections for 82 provinces and 33 urbanized cities of the Philippines up to 2060. A return to replacement-level fertility from the current 1.9 total fertility rate (TFR) is expected to ease demand for public school classrooms, except in BARMM, where the population of school-age children is projected to continue increasing. Below replacement TFR will likely result in greater easing of classroom congestion in public schools. However, the large school infrastructure backlogs and ageing of existing school buildings are expected to remain important issues in the future despite potential tailwinds from low fertility. We also highlight potential contributing factors to current classroom congestions.

Keywords: school infrastructure, low fertility, population projection