Discussion Papers 2021

CIRJE-F-1171	"Tech-Driven Secular Low Growth: Cross-Country Evidence"
Author Name	Takahashi, Yuta and Naoki Takayama
Date	June 2021
Full Paper	PDF file
Remarks	Revised in March 2022

Abstract
We investigate the role of technology on the global secular stagnation of average labor produc- tivity (ALP). In the last decade, equipment-specific technological progress has been stagnated significantly across developed countries, reflected in the movement of the relative equipment prices. Using a multi-capital growth model, we quantify the effect of the equipment-specific technological stagnation on the ALP growth rates. Our analysis shows that the technological stagnation alone accounts for 71% of the declines in the US ALP and a bulk fraction of other developed countries. We discuss several possible causes behind the global equipment-specific technological stagnation.
Keywords: Economic Growth, Secular Stagnation, Technology, Relative Investment Price, Equipment

Abstract

We investigate the role of technology on the global secular stagnation of average labor produc- tivity (ALP). In the last decade, equipment-specific technological progress has been stagnated significantly across developed countries, reflected in the movement of the relative equipment prices. Using a multi-capital growth model, we quantify the effect of the equipment-specific technological stagnation on the ALP growth rates. Our analysis shows that the technological stagnation alone accounts for 71% of the declines in the US ALP and a bulk fraction of other developed countries. We discuss several possible causes behind the global equipment-specific technological stagnation.

Keywords: Economic Growth, Secular Stagnation, Technology, Relative Investment Price, Equipment