マクロ経済学ワークショップ 2020
Macroeconomics Workshop
- ※ 2021年3月31日
- ※ 特に表記のない限りセミナー発表は英語で行われます（Unless otherwise mentioned, presentations are in ENGLISH）。
2020年度予定
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Zoomを利用したオンライン開催について （Online Seminars Using Zoom)
当面の間、本ワークショップはZoom を利用してオンラインで開催されます。 以下の注意事項を必ずご確認のうえご準備をお願いいたします。 Macroeconomics Workshop is held online using Zoom for the time being. Please read the following instruction for participation.
※ 登録 (Registration) 事前登録が必須となります。 下記よりご登録頂けますと、 ミーティングURLがemailで送付されます。 事前に、ご利用の端末にZoomアプリケーションのインストールをお済ませください。 （Zoomアカウントをお持ちの方は、emailにあるID, パスワードを使ってサインインして頂くことも可能です。） Registration is required to join a seminar. Please register in advance at the following website so that detailed information containing meeting URL will be provided via email. Please make sure to install ZOOM Cloud Meetings (application)on your computer or cell phone in advance. (If you have a Zoom account, sign-up using ID and password included in the email is also available.) https://zoom.us/meeting/register/tJMrfu6oqjwrG9SZKHg-CnZC0Al6xhP__TZw 参加までの手順は下記より事前にご確認ください。 For more details, please see the following website. ※ 注意 (Notes) 1) 参加者名には、ご自分の氏名をお使い下さい。 Please register your full name when you participate. 2) 登録は初回のみ。すでにご登録されている方は、登録時にご案内済みのミーティングURLまたはミーティングID、パスワードでご入室頂けます。ただし、共催セミナーの場合、URLが変わる場合がありますのでお気をつけください。 Those who already registered previously need not register again. You can join the following meetings with the same meeting URL or the meeting ID as the one you received. Please note that the meeting URL will be changed when the seminar is hosted by another workshop.
※ セミナー開催中 (During Seminars) ご自身の画像・音声は、質疑応答時を除き、OFFにしてください。 Please stop your video and mute the microphone during a speaker's talk except for Q&A session.
画像・音声OFFの手順 （Zoom Atendee Controls) |
| 日時 | June 4, 2020 （木 Thursday） 10:25-12:10
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| 場所 | 本セミナーはZoomを使ったオンラインでの開催(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上の説明をご確認ください。 This seminar is held online (registration is required). Please read the instruction above for details. |
| 報告 | 星 岳雄 (Takeo Hoshi) (The University of Tokyo)
Personal Guarantees by SME Owners in Japan |
| Abstract | Japanese banks traditionally required owners/managers of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to pledge personal guarantees for their business loans. Such practice has aledgedly limited appropriate risk taking by SMEs and sometimes prevented smooth business succession. With the aim of reducing the banks' dependence on personal guarantees and promoting enterpreneurship, the Guideline for Personal Guarantees by Business Owners was established in 2014. This paper examines data from the SME Unit of the Japan Finance Corporation (JFC), a government financial institution that has been exceptionally quick in reducing the reliance on personal guarantees of business owners, and studies the impact of discouraging the use of personal guarantees in SME financing. A simple theoretical model of moral hazard suggests that SME loans are likely to increase when the business owners/managers are not forced to provide personal guarantees on their loans. The model also suggests that the projects with low probability of success but high return conditional on success may not get financing if the loans must be with personal guarantees but can be financed by loans without personal guarantees. Business successions tends to happen more when business loans do not have personal guarantees by owners/managers. Looking at SMEs that received loans from JFC between February 2014 and March 2016, when JFC originated a large number of both loans with personal guarantees and those without personal guarantees, we find the data are consistent with what the model suggests. |
| 日時 | June 9, 2020 （火 Tuesday） 10:25-12:10 ※曜日に注意 |
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| 場所 | 本セミナーはZoomを使ったオンラインでの開催(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上の説明をご確認ください。 This seminar is held online (registration is required). Please read the instruction above for details. |
| 報告 | |
| Abstract | |
| 共催 |
| 日時 | June 11, 2020 （木 Thursday） 10:25-12:10 |
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| 場所 | 本セミナーはZoomを使ったオンラインでの開催(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上の説明をご確認ください。 This seminar is held online (registration is required). Please read the instruction above for details. |
| 報告 | 砂川武貴 (Takeki Sunakawa) (Hitotsubashi University)
Credible Forward Guidance (joint with Taisuke Nakata) [paper] |
| Abstract | We analyze credible forward guidance policies in a sticky-price model with an effective lower bound (ELB) constraint on nominal interest rates by solving a series of optimal sustainable policy problems indexed by the duration of reputational loss. Lower-for-longer policies—while effective in stimulating the economy at the ELB—are potentially time-inconsistent, as the associated overheating of the economy in the aftermath of a crisis is undesirable ex post. However, if reneging on a lower-for-longer promise leads to a loss of reputation and prevents the central bank from effectively using lower-for-longer policies in future crises, these policies can be time-consistent. We find that, even without an explicit commitment technology, the central bank can still credibly keep the policy rate at the ELB for an extended period—though not as extended under the optimal commitment policy—and meaningfully mitigate the adverse effects of the ELB constraint on economy activity. |
| 日時 | ※Speaker Changed June 18, 2020 （木 Thursday） 10:25-12:10 |
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| 場所 |
本セミナーはZoomを使ったオンラインでの開催(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上の説明をご確認ください。 This seminar is held online using Zoom (registration is required). Please read the instruction above for details. |
| 報告 |
小寺寛彰 (Tomoaki Kotera) (Tohoku University)
Sustainability of Social Security in Population Aging from the Perspective of Improving Health [paper] |
| Abstract | An aging economy is widely believed to increase the recipients of Social Security and thus increase a fiscal burden. However, since health condition for elderlies is better and it may continue in future, the number of elderly workers may increase. This paper studies the quantitative role of old workers for the sustainability of Social Security in an aging economy by developing a computable overlapping generations model with heterogeneous agents in a general equilibrium framework. The distinctive feature of the model is to incorporate health linked with survival probability, medical expenditures, and disutility of labor. The model simulation shows that old workers play a significant role in mitigating the fiscal cost and the effect remains pronounced when the Social Security reform is implemented. It also highlights a crucial role of projected future heath in quantifying the fiscal cost. |
| 日時 | ※Speaker Changed June 25, 2020 （木 Thursday） 10:25-12:10 |
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| 場所 | 本セミナーはZoomを使ったオンラインでの開催(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上の説明をご確認ください。 This seminar is held online using Zoom (registration is required). Please read the instruction above for details. |
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| Abstract | This paper studies the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) in a monetary model where a shortage of bank's monetary reserves (or a liquidity crisis) occurs endogenously. We show that while a discount window policy introduced by the LLR is welfare improving, it reduces the banks' ex ante incentive to hold reserves, which increases the probability of a crisis, and causes moral hazard in asset investments. We also examine the combined effect of other related policies such as a penalty in lending rate, liquidity requirements and constructive ambiguity. |
| 日時 | July 2, 2020 （木 Thursday） 10:25-12:10 |
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| 場所 | 本セミナーはZoomを使ったオンラインでの開催(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上の説明をご確認ください。 This seminar is held online using Zoom (registration is required). Please read the instruction above for details. |
| 報告 | Toshihiko Mukoyama (Georgetown University)
Gross Worker Flows over the Life Cycle (joint with Tomaz Cajner and Ilhan Guner) [paper] |
| Abstract | This paper analyzes the gross worker flows over the life cycle. We first documentthe life-cycle patterns of flows across different labor market states (employment, unem-ployment, and not in the labor force) as well as job-to-job transitions in the US. Next,we build a model of the aggregate labor market that incorporates the life cycle of work-ers, consumption-saving decisions, and labor market frictions. Finally, we estimate themodel with the US data, and use the estimated model to investigate the effect of taxesand transfers on aggregate labor market outcomes, such as unemployment rate and thelabor-force participation rate, through the lens of gross labor market flows. |
| 日時 | July 9, 2020 （木 Thursday） 10:25-12:10 |
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| 場所 | 本セミナーはZoomを使ったオンラインでの開催(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上の説明をご確認ください。 This seminar is held online using Zoom (registration is required). Please read the instruction above for details. |
| 報告 | Jiayi Wen (Xiamen University)
Occupational Retirement and Social Security Reform: the Roles of Physical and Cognitive Health [paper] |
| Abstract | Skill-biased technical change leads jobs to be less physically demanding whereas require more cognitive abilities, but existing research on retirement pays little attention on the cognitive dimension of health. This paper first explores occupational facts in ability requirements, multiple dimensions of health, and their interactive relationship in retirement. Based on these facts, this paper proposes and estimates a dynamic structural model of individual retirement and saving decisions, incorporating both physical and cognitive dimensions of health and allowing their retirement effects to differ across occupations via four channels respectively: leisure, wage, medical expenditure and life expectancy. I use indirect inference for estimation, using variants of auxiliary models to exploit either pooled variations or only within-individual variations to identify the model. The counterfactual results suggest cognitive health has little retirement effect for manual workers, whereas for clerical workers it is as vital as physical health. Leisure and life expectancy are more important channels. When retirement age increases, manual workers would actually delay retirement more than professionals. This is not due to their health capacity but instead to their financial rigidity in deciding when to retire. |
| 共催 | National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies |
| 日時 | July 16, 2020 （木 Thursday） 10:25-12:10 |
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| 場所 | 本セミナーはZoomを使ったオンラインでの開催(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上の説明をご確認ください。 This seminar is held online using Zoom (registration is required). Please read the instruction above for details. |
| 報告 | 松本英彦 (Hidehiko Matsumoto) (Bank of Japan)
Monetary and Macroprudential Policies against Currency Crises |
| Abstract | This paper studies optimal monetary and macroprudential policies in a small open economy model which borrows from abroad in foreign currency subject to sudden stops of capital inflows. Socially excessive foreign borrowing by private agents causes inefficiently large currency depreciation during crises, which increases the domestic-currency value of foreign debt and exacerbates crises. Contractionary monetary policy can mitigate depreciation during crises, but anticipation of this policy intervention induces larger borrowing ex ante and destabilizes the economy. Contractionary monetary policy during crises improves social welfare over inflation targeting monetary policy only if it is combined with an ex ante macro-prudential tax on foreign borrowing to prevent over-borrowing. Macroprudential taxes on foreign borrowing prevent sharp currency depreciation and substantially stabilize the economy, thereby improving welfare, regardless of whether monetary policy is inflation targeting or discretionary. |
| 日時 | October 1 （木 Thursday） 10：25-12:10 |
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| 場所 | 本セミナーはZoomを使ったオンラインでの開催(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上の説明をご確認ください。 This seminar is held online using Zoom (registration is required). Please read the instruction above for details. |
| 報告 | Jens Christensen ( Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
Assessing Abenomics: Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Japanese Government Bonds (joint with Mark M. Spiegell) |
| Abstract | We assess the impact of news concerning recent Japanese monetary reforms on long-term inflation expectations using an arbitrage-free term structure model of nominal and real yields. Our model accounts for the value of deflation protection embedded in Japanese inflation-indexed bonds issued since 2013, which is sizable and time-varying. Our result suggest that Japanese long-term inflation expectations have remained positive despite extensive spells of deflation, leaving inflation risk premia mostly negative during this period. Moreover, adjusting for deflation protection demonstrates that market responses to policy changes were not as inflationary as they appear under standard modeling procedures. Consequently, the reforms were less “disappointing” than is widely perceived. |
| 日時 | October 8, 2020 （木 Thursday） 10:25-12:10 |
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| 場所 | 本セミナーはZoomを使ったオンラインでの開催(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上の説明をご確認ください。 This seminar is held online using Zoom (registration is required). Please read the instruction above for details. |
| 報告 | Sanjay Singh (University of California, Davis) Understanding Persistent ZLB: Theory and Assesment |
| Abstract | Concerns of prolonged near zero interest rates and below target inflation have become widespread in the advanced world. We build an analytical framework that incorporates two hypotheses of persistent ZLB episodes: expectations-driven liquidity traps and secular stagnation driven liquidity traps. We estimate the DSGE model with Japanese data from 1998:Q1 to 2012:Q4. Using Bayesian prediction pools, we find that a policymaker faces considerable real-time uncertainty in identifying the dominant narrative. We propose robust policies that eliminate expectations-driven traps and are expansionary under secular stagnation. |
| 日時 | October 15, 2020 （木 Thursday） 10:25-12:10 |
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| 場所 | 本セミナーはZoomを使ったオンラインでの開催(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上の説明をご確認ください。 This seminar is held online using Zoom (registration is required). Please read the instruction above for details. |
| 報告 | Leo Krippner (LJK Limited) Measuring Unconventional Monetary Policy in the New Lower-Bound Environment |
| 日時 | October 22 （木 Thursday） 10：25-12:10
※ミクロ経済学ワークショップ と共催 |
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| 場所 | 本セミナーはZoomを使ったオンラインでの開催(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上の説明をご確認ください。 This seminar is held online using Zoom (registration is required). Please read the instruction above for details. |
| 報告 | 山田 憲（Ken Yamada) (Kyoto University)
The Race between Technological Progressand Female Advancement: Changes inGender and Skill Premia in OECD Countries (joint with Hiroya Taniguchi) [paper] |
| Abstract | In recent decades, the male–female wage gap has fallen, while the skilled–unskilledwage gap has risen in advanced countries. The rate of decline in the gender wage gaphas tended to be greater for unskilled than skilled workers, while the rate of increase inthe skill wage gap has tended to be greater for male than female workers. To account forthese trends, we develop an aggregate production function extended to allow for gender-specific capital–skill complementarity, and estimate it using shift–share instruments andcross-country panel data from OECD countries. We confirm that information and com-munication technology (ICT) equipment is not only more complementary to skilled thanunskilled workers but also more complementary to female than male workers. Our resultsshow that changes in gender and skill premia are the outcome of the race between progressin ICT and advances in female educational attainment and employment. |
| 日時 | October 29 （木 Thursday） 10：25-12:10 |
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| 場所 | 本セミナーはZoomを使ったオンラインでの開催(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上の説明をご確認ください。 This seminar is held online using Zoom (registration is required). Please read the instruction above for details. |
| 報告 | Diego Daruich (University of Southern California)
Universal Basic Income: A Dynamic Assessment (joint with Raquel Fernandez) [paper] |
| Abstract | The idea of universal basic income (UBI) ?a set income that is given to all without any conditions- is making an important comeback but there is no real evidence regarding its long-term consequences. This paper provides a very inexpensive evaluation of such a policy by studying its dynamic consequences in a general equilibrium model with imperfect capital markets and labor market shocks, in which households make decisions about education, savings, labor supply, and with intergenerational linkages via skill formation and transfers. The steady state of the model is estimated to match US household data. We find that a UBI policy that gives all households a yearly income equivalent to the poverty line level has different implications in the short versus long run, with younger agents bearing welfare losses and these losses increasing for future generations (operating behind the veil of ignorance). A sizable share of the negative effects is driven by the response of parents (i.e., by endogenous intergenerational linkages) which lead to lower skill formation and education over time. Modeling automation as an increased probability of being hit by an "out-of-work" shock, the model is also used to provide insights on how the benefits of UBI change as the environment becomes riskier. |
| 日時 | November 5, 2020 （木 Thursday） 10:25-12:10 |
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| 場所 | 本セミナーはZoomを使ったオンラインでの開催(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上の説明をご確認ください。 This seminar is held online using Zoom (registration is required). Please read the instruction above for details. |
| 報告 | John Stachurski (Australian National University)
Extensions to Modern Dynamic Programming Theory [related paper] |
| Abstract | Some recent economic models stretch far beyond the boundaries of classical dynamic programming theory. Deviations from the theory include unbounded rewards, state-dependent discounting, recursive preferences, negative discounting and applications of the theory to spatial and other non-traditional problems. This talk will cover some extensions to modern dynamic programming theory contributed by myself and my coauthors over the last two years. |
| 日時 | November 26 （木 Thursday） 10：25-12:10 |
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| 場所 | 本セミナーはZoomを使ったオンラインでの開催(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上の説明をご確認ください。 This seminar is held online using Zoom (registration is required). Please read the instruction above for details. |
| 報告 | 嶺山友秀 (Tomohide Mineyama) (International Monetary Fund)
Revisiting the Optimal Inflation Rate with Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity: The Role of Heterogeneity |
| Abstract | In this paper, I study the optimal inflation rate in a sticky price economy in which workers are heterogeneous in labor productivity and wage changes are subject to asymmetric adjustment costs. The model calibrated to U.S. micro wage data implies downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR). The optimal inflation rate is substantially higher than stated in the literature in the presence of worker heterogeneity. A key to understanding the result is that DNWR causes an inefficient cross-sectional allocation of labor as well as inefficient aggregate dynamics, enlarging the "grease the wheels" effect of inflation. |
| 日時 | November 26 （木 Thursday） 10：25-12:10 |
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| 場所 | 本セミナーはZoomを使ったオンラインでの開催(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上の説明をご確認ください。 This seminar is held online using Zoom (registration is required). Please read the instruction above for details. |
| 報告 | 嶺山友秀 (Tomohide Mineyama) (International Monetary Fund)
Revisiting the Optimal Inflation Rate with Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity: The Role of Heterogeneity |
| Abstract | In this paper, I study the optimal inflation rate in a sticky price economy in which workers are heterogeneous in labor productivity and wage changes are subject to asymmetric adjustment costs. The model calibrated to U.S. micro wage data implies downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR). The optimal inflation rate is substantially higher than stated in the literature in the presence of worker heterogeneity. A key to understanding the result is that DNWR causes an inefficient cross-sectional allocation of labor as well as inefficient aggregate dynamics, enlarging the "grease the wheels" effect of inflation. |
| 日時 | December 3 （木 Thursday） 10：25-12:10 |
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| 場所 | 本セミナーはZoomを使ったオンラインでの開催(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上の説明をご確認ください。 This seminar is held online using Zoom (registration is required). Please read the instruction above for details. |
| 報告 | 片山宗親 (Munechika Katayama) (Waseda University)
COVID-19 Misperception and Macroeconomy |
| Abstract | Uncertainty about the true state of the COVID-19 pandemic has caused substantial difficulty in economic activities and policymaking. How does the uncertainty affect the macroeconomy and infections? What are the policy implications? To answer these questions, this paper presents a model that incorporates people's misperception about the current COVID-19 spread in the market. Our baseline model shows that underestimation about the number of infections reduces the social welfare due to worsening the externality of economic activities on virus transmissions while overestimation improves it to some extent. In an extended model with limited medical resources, we show that a slight breakdown of the medical system can mitigate the underestimation of the risk of being infected. We also consider the quarantine policy that limits both infections and the fall in economic activities for various degrees of misperception. Finally, affecting the extent of misperception about the spread is shown to be an effective policy tool that substitutes proposed containment policies in the literature. |
| 日時 | December 10 （木 Thursday） 10：25-12:10 |
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| 場所 | 本セミナーはZoomを使ったオンラインでの開催(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上の説明をご確認ください。 This seminar is held online using Zoom (registration is required). Please read the instruction above for details. |
| 報告 | Daeha Cho (University of Melbourne)
Unemployment Risk, MPC Heterogeneity, and Business Cycles [paper] |
| Abstract | This paper evaluates the quantitative importance of two channels emphasized in Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) models: (i) precautionary savings against countercyclical unemployment risk and (ii) MPC heterogeneity. Using the Bayesian estimation technique, I estimate a HANK model that features these two channels. I find that the business cycle dynamics in HANK are different from those in the otherwise identical complete markets benchmark, the Representative Agent New Keynesian (RANK) model. The contribution of precautionary savings against countercyclical unemployment risk on the difference in output volatility between HANK and RANK is small. The majority of the difference arises from MPC heterogeneity. Moreover, the two channels do not improve the fit of the HANK model in terms of explaining aggregate variables, as the estimated HANK model features less nominal rigidity. |
| 日時 | December 17, 2020 （木 Thursday） 10:25-12:10 |
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| 場所 |
本セミナーはZoomを使ったオンラインでの開催(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上の説明をご確認ください。 This seminar is held online using Zoom (registration is required). Please read the instruction above for details. |
| 共催 | Heejeong Kim (Concordia University) Education, Wage Dynamics and Wealth Inequality [paper] |
| 報告 | |
| Abstract | To what extent does heterogeneity in education contribute to wealth inequality and life-cycle savings, and through which pathways? Using the PSID data, I estimate skill-specific wage processes, allowing for both deterministic between-group wage dispersion and stochastic within-group wage dispersion. I evaluate the quantitative implications of these wage processes using an incomplete-markets overlapping-generations general equilibrium model in which households choose their education and labor supply. I find that allowing wage processes to vary by skills is crucial for understanding the wealth inequality and life-cycle savings of skilled and unskilled households. Importantly, the deterministic between-group wage difference is vital for college attainment choice, while a relatively more volatile persistent component of wage shocks for the skilled plays a key role in explaining the top percentile distribution of wealth and the large difference in the life-cycle savings between the two skill groups. |
| 日時 |
Christmas Eve Special: Ad-hoc Covid-19 Workshop
December 24, 2020 （木 Thursday） 10:25-11:55 |
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| 場所 | 本セミナーはZoomを使ったオンラインでの開催(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上の説明をご確認ください。 This seminar is held online using Zoom (registration is required). Please read the instruction above for details. |
| 報告 | 10:25-11:25 Taisuke Nakata (The University of Tokyo) Trade-off between Economic Activity and Lives in Japan: A Back-of-the-Envelope Calculation for 2021 (joint with Daisuke Fujii)
11:25-11:55 Makoto Nirei (The University of Tokyo) Necessities, Home Production, and Economic Impacts of Stay-at-Home Measures (joint with Nao Sudo)
11:55- Informal chat and lunch |
| 日時 |
Master's Thesis presentations January 14, 2021 （木 Thursday） 8:30-12:40 |
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| 場所 | 本セミナーはZoomを使ったオンラインでの開催(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上の説明をご確認ください。 This seminar is held online using Zoom (registration is required). Please read the instruction above for details. |
| 報告 | 8:30-9:00 前田湧太 （Reader: 北尾、青木、楡井） Heterogeneous Returns to Wealth and Initial Wealth Distribution 資産の収益率と初期資産分布
9:00-9:30 渋谷春樹 （Readers： 楡井、北尾、仲田） Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound in A Two-Asset HANK Economy 二資産・異質的家計ニューケインジアンモデルにおけるゼロ金利制約下の金融政策
9:30-10:00 宇随 佳 （Readers: 植田、神取、星） Information Contagion: a Global Game Approach グローバルゲームを用いた金融危機の波及メカニズムに関する分析
10:00-10:30 LU Xingkun （Readers: 福田、肥後、植田） The Lending Behavior of Bank Under the Low Interest Rate Policy 低金利政策で銀行の貸出行動
10:30-10:40 Break
10:40-11:10 坂田 健太郎 （Readers: 青木、中嶋、植田） Asset Price Bubbles and Macroprudential Regulation 資産バブルと金融規制
11:10-11:40久保田 紘行 （Readers: 新谷、青木、仲田） High-frequency Identification of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks 非伝統的金融政策の高頻度データを用いた識別
11:40-12:10 吉田壮観 （Readers: 新谷、岩本、青木） The Impact of Accuracy of Testing under Epidemic Situations 伝染病の流行下における検査の精度が与える影響
12:10-12:40 LIU Jinglin （Readers: 新谷、川口、中嶋） Time Series Analysis of Unemployment and Labor Market Participation in Japan 日本における失業と労働参加の変動要因分析 |
| 日時 | February 19, 2021 （金 Friday） 10:30-12:00 ※日時に注意 |
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| 場所 | 本セミナーはZoomを使ったオンラインでの開催(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上の説明をご確認ください。 This seminar is held online using Zoom (registration is required). Please read the instruction above for details. |
| 報告 | Hanbaek Lee (University of Pennsylvania) Striking While the Iron Is Cold: Fragility after a Surge of Lumpy Investments [paper] |
| Abstract | In this paper I argue that synchronized large-scale investments of large firms can significantly amplify productivity-driven aggregate fluctuations, and lead to investment cycles even in the absence of aggregate shocks. Using U.S. Compustat data, I show that years preceding recessions display investment surges among large firms. Furthermore, after the investment surges, large firms become inelastic to interest rates and display persistent inaction duration. I then develop a heterogeneous-firm real business cycle model in which a firm needs to process multiple investment stages for large investments and can accelerate it at a cost. In the model, following a TFP shock the synchronized timings of lumpy investments are persistently synchronized. And TFP-induced recessions are especially severe after the surge of large firms' lumpy investments. In support of this prediction, I present evidence for the investment cycle in post-shock period in macro-level data on nonresidential fixed investment. |
| 日時 | February 24, 2021 （水 Wednesday） 9:00-10:20 ※日時に注意 |
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| 場所 |
本セミナーはZoomを使ったオンラインでの開催(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上の説明をご確認ください。 This seminar is held online using Zoom (registration is required). Please read the instruction above for details. |
| 報告 | Mengli Sha (The Pennsylvania State University)
Consumer Durables and the Distributional Effects of Credit Supply Shocks |
| Abstract | This paper studies the aggregate impacts and distributional implications of credit supply shocks on consumer durable expenditures. Subprime auto lending is concentrated in nonbank lenders. During the Great Recession, subprime auto lending from nonbanks declined dramatically vis-a-vis banks loans. Motivated by these facts, this paper embeds a novel ingredient of endogenous lender choices into a dynamic equilibrium model with heterogeneous households and lenders. The estimated model is able to generate a sizable decline in auto sales triggered by nonbank credit supply shocks and income shocks. In addition, the model attributes approximately 37% of the collapse of U.S. auto sales during the Great Recession to nonbank credit supply shocks, whereas the contribution of a bank credit supply shock of the same magnitude would have been merely 0.28%. Moreover, this analysis highlights different distributional implications of bank and nonbank credit supply shocks through a new mechanism: asymmetric ability to borrow. This concept captures the limited exibility in the lender choices of nonbank borrowers, which negatively affects nonbank borrowers' car purchasing behaviors but not those of bank borrowers. Consequently, nonbank credit supply shocks have much larger impacts on durable expenditures, compared to bank shocks. These results cast light on the effectiveness of the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF), the emergency lending program that alleviated panic in the asset-backed securities market during the Great Recession: Without this program, auto sales could have dropped substantially more. |
| 日時 | February 24, 2021 （水 Wednesday） 10:30-11:50 ※日時に注意 |
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| 場所 |
本セミナーはZoomを使ったオンラインでの開催(事前登録制）となります。詳細は本ウェブサイト上の説明をご確認ください。 This seminar is held online using Zoom (registration is required). Please read the instruction above for details. |
| 報告 |
Han Gao (University of Minnesota) Social Security and Female Labor Supply in China |
| Abstract | This paper studies how a potential policy change that raises women's social security eligibility age from 50 to 60 would affect women's employment, human capital, and earnings in China. I develop a dynamic model of female labor supply, featuring voluntary retirement; occupational choice; human capital accumulation contingent on occupation, age, and employment status; and child care using time inputs from parents, grandparents, and formal child care from the market. I estimate the model parameters by matching moments on employment, wages, and the time allocation of child care from micro data in China. The policy counterfactual raising women's social security eligibility age yields two main findings. First, the policy change leads to only a moderate increase in aggregate labor supply because it affects the employment of old and young women in opposite directions. The reduction in social security insurance encourages women above the age of 50 to supply more labor. Yet low-skilled young women with children reduce their labor supply in response to the children's grandmothers working more and providing less child care. Second, since human capital accumulation is faster on the earlier career path rather than later, the reduction in early career employment leads to persistent losses in human capital and earnings for low-skilled women. |
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