Workshops


マクロ経済学ワークショップ
Macroeconomics Workshop 2015

※ 2015年3月25日

 

 

本年度終了分:

 

日時

April 9, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室


in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

辻山仁志 (Hitoshi Tsujiyama) (Goethe University Frankfurt)

Optimal Income Taxation: Mirrlees Meets Ramsey (joint with Jonathan Heathcote) [PDF]

Abstract

What structure of income taxation maximizes the social benefits of redistribution while minimizing the social harm associated with distorting the allocation of labor input? Many authors have advocated scrapping the current tax system, which redistributes primarily via marginal tax rates that rise with income, and replacing it with a flat tax system, in which marginal tax rates are constant and redistribution is achieved via non-means-tested transfers. In this paper we compare alternative tax systems in an environment with distinct roles for public and private insurance. We evaluate alternative policies using a social welfare function designed to capture the taste for redistribution reflected in the current tax system. In our preferred specification, moving to the optimal at tax policy reduces welfare, whereas moving to the optimal fully nonlinear Mirrlees policy generates only tiny welfare gains. These findings suggest that proposals for dramatic tax reform should be viewed with caution.

日時

April 16, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:40-18:20 ※時間と場所に注意

第69回金融センター特別セミナー、みずほフィナンシャルグループ寄付講座と共催

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)2階 小島コンファレンスルーム
in Kojima Conference Room on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

Beatrice Weder di Mauro (Johannes-Gutenberg-University of Mainz, International Macroeconomics, European Commission, DG ECFIN)

New Institutions and New Policies for a Workable Eurozone

Abstract  
備考

参加ご希望の方は、以下のURLよりお申し込みください。Please see this website for registration.
https://bunken.org/carf/member

日時

April 23, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

清田耕造(Kozo Kiyota) (Keio University)

Misallocation, Productivity, and Trade Liberalization: The Case of Vietnamese Manufacturing (joint with Doan Thi Thanh Ha) [PDF]

Abstract

This paper attempts to measure the contribution of resource misallocation to aggregate manufacturing TFP, focusing on Vietnamese manufacturing firms for the period 2000-09. Our research questions are threefold. 1) To what extent are resources misallocated in Vietnam? 2) How large would the productivity gains have been in the absence of distortions? 3) Did the degree of misallocation decline after entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO)? The answers to these questions are as follows. First, misallocation in Vietnam is comparable to that in China and India. Second, there would have been substantial improvement in aggregate TFP in the absence of distortions. Finally, misallocation did not necessarily decline after the accession to the WTO. However, this final result does not necessarily mean that there are no gains from trade liberalization. Although trade liberalization contributed to reducing the distortions in output markets, it was offset by increasing distortions in capital markets, which are possibly attributable to the global nancial crisis. These results together suggest that trade liberalization is not a panacea. Further reforms in capital markets could improve aggregate TFP in Vietnam through reduced misallocation.

日時

April 30, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

阿部修人 (Naohito Abe) (Hitotsubashi University)

Effects of New Goods and Product Turnover on Price Indexes" (joint with Toshiki Enda, Akiyuki Tonogi, and Noriko Inakura) [PDF]

Abstract

This study analyzes the importance of new products for price measurements. Using large-scale retail scanner data in Japan, we construct a unit value price index and decompose its fluctuation in to (1) standard price change effects, (2) substitution effects within continuing goods, and (3) turnover-new product effects. The aggregate unit price index exhibits different movements from the standard Laspeyres price index. After the 2014 change in Japan’s tax rate, turnover-new product effects from the appearance of relatively expensive new goods increased by 1 percentage point, contributing to increases in unit value. However, the standard Laspeyres price index, which excludes information for new or disappearing goods, exhibited no large changes before and after the tax revision.

日時

May 7, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

鈴木史馬 (Shiba Suzuki) (Seikei University)

Uncertainty in a Borderline: Evidence from a Field Experiment (joint with Shinya Kajitani and Keiichi Morimoto) [PDF]

Abstract

Using a theoretical and experimental approach, this paper investigates the role of borderline uncertainty between success and failure in determining the input of effort by university students. By conducting a randomized experiment in an actual economics course in a Japanese university, we demonstrate that rank information feedback improves the performance of students with only average scores in the midterm examination, but harms the performance of high achieving students. We also construct a theoretical model of an uncertain borderline to interpret the ex- perimental results. Our contribution is to demonstrate that the rank information can relate to the recognition of the borderline. In this case, the rank information feedback acting as an incentive scheme should vary for different types of students as a way to improve their motivation to learn.

日時

May 14, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

Scott Davis (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

Credit Risk and Monetary Policy Tradeoffs

Abstract

 

日時

May 21, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

*Speaker Changed/発表者が変更いたしました。

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

池田大輔 (Daisuke Ikeda) (the Bank of Japan)

The Effects of Barriers to Technology Adoption on the Japanese Prewar and Postwar Economic Growth (joint with Yasuko Morita) [PDF]

Abstract

Despite the modernization of the late 19th century, Japan’s per-capita GDP had staggered around one-third of that of leading economies until the Japan’s miracle took place after World War II. To explain the prewar stagnation and postwar miracle, we propose a hypothesis of barriers to technology adoption and examine the hypothesis by building a dynamic model with endogenous technology adoption.
The barriers, which we identify from data on relative price of investment, explains about one-fourth of a gap in per-capita GDP between Japan and leading economies in the prewar period. The postwar removal of the barriers stimulates technology adoption and generates the observed transitional dynamics of the relative price of investment, explaining about one-fourth of the catch-up attained in the postwar period. We argue from historical perspective that the barriers have to do with low capability for absorbing technology, economic and political instability, and less competitive environment.

日時

May 28, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

堀 敬一 (Keiichi Hori) (Ritsumeiikan University)

A Dynamic Agency Theory of Investment and Managerial Replacement (joint with Hiroshi Osano) [PDF]

Abstract

In this paper, we explore a dynamic theory of investment and costly managerial turnover given agency conflicts between the firm manager and investors. We incorporate the possibility of the successive replacement of managers until the firm is finally liquidated, and develop a continuous-time agency model with the q-theory of investment. We derive the dynamic variations of average q, marginal q, and the optimal investment capital ratio surrounding manager turnover. Furthermore, we also indicate that the firm’s optimal replacement/retention decision becomes more permissive with the frequency of the replacement of managers. Our theoretical findings yield empirical implications for the joint dynamics of investment and CEO turnover policy, which are consistent with evidence provided by the existing empirical literature, and provide novel testable hypotheses.

日時

June 4, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

上東貴志 (Takashi Kamihigashi) (Kobe University)

A Dynamic General Equilibrium IS-LM Model

Abstract

 

日時

June 5, 2015 (金 Friday)16:50-18:35

※曜日と場所に注意

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)2階 小島コンファレンスルーム
in Kojima Conference Room on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

Marco Bassett (University College London)

Forward guidance: communication, commitment, or both? [PDF]

Abstract

Faced with the constraint of the zero lower bound on interest rates, central banks around the world have engaged in forward guidance as one instrument to stimulate the economy. To properly ascertain the potential benefits of forward guidance as an independent tool of monetary policy, it is important to understand how it can work. I analyze the strategic interaction between households and the central bank as a game in which the central bank has access to cheap talk. In the absence of private information, the set of equilibrium payoffs is independent of the announcements of the central bank: forward guidance as a pure commitment mechanism ("Odyssean forward guidance") is a redundant policy instrument. When private information is present, central bank communication can have social value, and a central bank's communication strategy interacts with its credibility. Forward guidance emerges as a natural communication strategy when the private information in the hands of the central bank concerns its own preferences or beliefs.

日時

June 11, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

及川浩希(Koki Oikawa) (Waseda University)

The optimal inflation rate under Schumpeterian growth [paper]

Abstract

In this study, we analyze the relationship between inflation and economic growth. To this end, we construct a model of endogenous growth with creative destruction, incorporating sticky prices due to menu costs. Inflation and deflation reduce the reward for innovation via menu cost payments and, thus, lower the frequency of creative destruction. Central banks can maximize the rate of economic growth by setting their target inflation rate at the negative of a fundamental growth rate that would be realized without price stickiness. The optimal inflation rate, however, may differ from the growth-maximizing inflation rate because of overinvestment in R&D and indeterminacy. Both mechanisms indicate a higher optimal inflation rate than the negative of a fundamental growth rate. Our calibrated model shows that the optimal inflation rate is close to the growth-maximizing inflation rate and that a deviation from the optimal level has sizable impacts on economic growth.

日時

June 15, 2015 (月 Monday)16:50-18:35

※曜日に注意

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

Roberto Piazza (Banca d'Italia)

Self-fulfilling deflations [PDF]

Abstract

What types of monetary and fiscal policy rules give rise to self-fulfilling deflationary paths that are monotonic and empirically relevant? The paper provides simple theoretical conditions that guarantee the existence of these paths in a general equilibrium model with sticky prices. These sufficient conditions turn out to be weak enough to be satisfied by most monetary and fiscal policy rules. A quantification of the model which combines a real shock à la Hayashi and Prescott (2002) with a simultaneous sunspot that dis-anchors inflation expectations matches the main empirical features of the Japanese deflationary process during the “lost decade”. The results also highlight the key role of the assumption about the anchoring of inflation expectations for the size of fiscal multipliers and, in general, for any policy analysis.

日時

June 18, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

José A. Scheinkman (Columbia Unviersity)

Misspecified Recovery (joint with Jaroslav Borovicka and Lars P. Hansen) [paper]

Abstract

Asset prices contain information about the probability distribution of future states and the stochastic discounting of these states. Without additional assumptions, probabilities and stochastic discounting cannot be separately identified. Ross (2013) introduced a set of assumptions that restrict the dynamics of the stochastic discount factor in a way that allows for the recovery of the underlying probabilities. We use decomposition results for stochastic discount factors from Hansen and Scheinkman (2009) to explain when this procedure leads to misspecified recovery. We also argue that the empirical evidence on asset prices indicates that the recovered measure would differ substantially from the actual probability distribution and that interpreting this measure as the true probability distribution may severely bias our inference about risk premia, investors' aversion to risk, and the welfare cost of economics fluctuations.

日時

June 25, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

Andrea Ajello (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)

Financial Stability and Optimal Interest-Rate Policy [PDF]

Abstract

We study optimal interest-rate policy in a New Keynesian model in which the economy is at risk of experiencing a financial crisis and the probability of a crisis depends on credit conditions. The optimal adjustment to interest rates in response to credit conditions is (very) small when the model is calibrated to match an estimated historical relationship between credit conditions, output, inflation and the likelihood of financial crises. Given the imprecise estimates of a number of key parameters, we also study optimal policy taking parameter uncertainty into account. We find that both Bayesian and robust central banks will respond more aggressively to financial stability risks when the probability and severity of financial crises are uncertain.

日時

July 2, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

戸村肇 (Hajime Tomura) (Unviersity of Tokyo)

Payment Instruments and Collateral in the Interbank Payment System [PDF]

Abstract

This paper presents a three-period model to analyze why banks need bank reserves despite the presence of other liquid assets like Treasury securities. The model highlights the fact that the interbank market is an over-the-counter market. It shows that the large value payment system operated by the central bank can be regarded as a collateralized contract to save liquidity to settle bank transfers. In this interpretation, bank reserves are the balances of collateral. The optimal contract is the floor system. Whether a private clearing house can replace the central bank depends on the range of collateral it can accept.

日時

July 9, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

Boyan Jovanovic (New York University)

Growth through Learning [PDF]

Abstract

An agent tries to maximize output by searching for the best technology. Each period the ideal technogical decision has an unknown permanent component and unknown tansitory components. The agent searches for the best policy and learns from experience, ultimately approaching material bliss and infinite output. Surprisingly, the long-run growth rate rises with agents’ risk aversion. Information has only level effects, but long-run growth is endogenous. Quantitatively the model matches the growth facts only the periods are decades, not years — the fluctuations are low-frequency events in which case the industrial revolution is a plausible right-tail event. Indeed, the growth distribution has a thick right tail. Then a second agent is added to the economy and a free riding problem arises, but thanks to a scale effect in the effects of knowledge, growth is nevertheless faster.

日時

July 16, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

Alexis Akira Toda (University of California, San Diego)

Growth, Welfare, and Inequality under Basic Income/Flat Tax

Abstract

 

日時

July 23, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

中田豪 (Takeshi Nakata) (Niigata Unviersity)

Bank Runs and Sovereign Debt Defaults

Abstract

 

日時

July 30, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

William Roberds (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)

Death of a Reserve Currency (joint with Stephen Quinn) [PDF]

Abstract

The Dutch bank florin was the dominant currency in Europe over much of the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries. The florin, a fiat money, was managed by an early central bank, the Bank of Amsterdam. We analyze the florin’s loss of “reserve currency” status over the period 1781-1792, using a new reconstruction of the Bank’s balance sheet. The reconstruction shows that by 1784, accommodative policies rendered the Bank policy insolvent, meaning that its net worth would have been negative under continuation of its policy objectives. Policy insolvency coincided with the Bank’s loss of control over the value of its money.

日時

September 3, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

Hsuan-Chih (Luke) Lin (Academia Sinica)

Optimal Disability Insurance and Unemployment Insurance With Cyclical Fluctuations [PDF]

Abstract

This paper studies the optimal joint design of disability insurance and unemployment insurance in an environment with moral hazard, when health status is private information, and cyclical fluctuations. I show how disability benefits and unemployment benefits vary with aggregate economic conditions in an optimal contract. In a special case of the model, I first show the optimal contract can be solved explicitly up to a system of non-linear equations. I then demonstrate that the optimal joint insurance system can be implemented by allowing workers to save or borrow using a bond and by providing flow payments and lump-sum transfers (or payments), where the interest rates and the amounts paid (transferred) depend on the employment or health status of the agent and the state of the economy. Finally, I consider a calibrated version of the full model and study the quantitative implications of both the current system and the optimal system. In the optimal system, disability benefits are designed such that the system punishes workers who stay unemployed for a long time. I consider the welfare impact of changing from the current system to the optimal one when both systems provide the same ex-ante utility to the worker. The cost savings incurred from incentive problems are substantial, and the unemployment rate will be reduced by roughly 40 percent.

日時

September 10, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

※CARF 『バブル、金融危機と政策対応研究会』と共催

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

Pietro Reichlin (LUISS G. Carli )

The Housing Cost Disease (joint with Nicola Borri) [paper]

Abstract

We use a simple two-sector, life-cycle economy with bequests to explain the increasing wealth to income ratio, housing wealth and wealth inequality that have been observed in several countries over the long-run as a consequence of a rising labor efficiency in manufacturing (housing cost disease). When consumption inequality across households is sufficiently large, the housing cost disease has adverse effects on a measure of social welfare based on an egalitarian principle: the higher the housing's value appreciation, the lower the welfare benefit of a rising labor efficiency in manufacturing.

日時

September 17, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

田中聡史 (Satoshi Tanaka) (University of Queensland and CAMA)

Does Home Production Drive Structural Transformation? (joint with Alessio Moro and Solmaz Moslehi)[PDF]

Abstract

Using new home production data for the U.S., we estimate a model of structural transformation with a home production sector, allowing for both non-homotheticity of preferences and di erential productivity growth in each sector. We report two main ndings. First, the data support a speci cation with di erent income elasticities of market and home services. Second, the slowdown in home labor productivity, started in the late 70s, is a key determinant of the late acceleration of market services. A counter-factual experiment shows that, without the slowdown, the share of market services would be lower by 6.9% in 2010.

日時

September 24, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

中嶋智之 (Tomoyuki Nakajima) (Kyoto University)

A theory of non-performing loans and debt restructuring

Abstract

 

日時

October 1, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

植田健一 (Kenichi Ueda) (The University of Tokyo)

Bank Competition, Job Security, and Economic Growth (joint with Stijn Claessens) [PDF]

Abstract

We identify a new channel through which banks affect economic activity, namely, bank’s monopolistic power over job security. We develop a simple theory, extending the hold-up problem associated with firm-specific investment to banks’ influence over worker layoffs at distressed firms, to show how banks’ power, depending on the industry, can enhance or reduce the productivity of firms. We test and confirm our predictions using quasi-natural experiments that increased employment protection and bank competition in the U.S. between the 1970s and 1990s. We find that greater employment protection increases industry output in knowledge-intensive industries, with this effect increasing with greater bank competition.

日時

October 8, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

Jiro E. Kondo (McGill University)

Cooperation Cycles: A theory of endogenous capital-embodied (joint with Dimitris Papanikolaou) [PDF]

Abstract

We provide a theory of endogenous shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment that is based on a limited commitment friction in the creation of new capital. Inventors generate ideas but are inefficient at implementing them. When inventors collaborate with rms, their ideas can be implemented more efficiently. However, firms cannot commit to appropriately compensate inventors. The best ideas are those most at risk of theft, since reputational concerns are insufficient to always discipline firms. The fear of expropriation leads inventors to implement their best ideas inefficiently without firms. Good news about future technological progress increases the value of future business and thus disciplines firms away from expropriating better ideas, leading to increases in measured productivity and the returns to new investment. In contrast to standard models, this mechanism leads to an investment boom and increased economic growth in response to good news about future technologies.

日時

October 15, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

Yuichiro Waki (University of Queensland)

Private News and Monetary Policy (joint with Ippei Fujiwara) [PDF]

Abstract

How should monetary policy be designed when the central bank has private information about future economic conditions? When private news about shocks to future fundamentals is added to an otherwise standard new Keynesian model, social welfare deteriorates by the central bank’s reaction to or revelation of such news. There exists the expected virtue of ignorance, and secrecy or ignorance is bliss constitutes optimal policy. This result holds when news are about cost-push shocks, or about shocks to the monetary policy objective, or about shocks to the natural rate of interest, and even when the zero lower bound of nominal interest rates is taken into account. A lesson of our analysis for a central bank’s communication strategy is that Delphic forward guidance that helps the private sector form more accurate forecast for future shocks can be undesirable and the central bank should instead aim to communicate its state-contingent policy.

日時

October22, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

Kim Jinil (Korea University)

Designing a Simple Loss Function for the Fed: Does the Dual Mandate Make Sense? (joint with Davide Debortoli and Jesper Lindé) [PDF]

Abstract

Yes, it makes a lot of sense. Using the Smets and Wouters (2007) model of the U.S. economy, we find that the role of the output gap should be equal to or even more important than that of inflation when designing a simple loss function to represent household welfare. Moreover, we document that a loss function with nominal wage inflation and the hours gap provides an even better approximation of the true welfare function than a standard objective based on inflation and the output gap. Our results hold up when we introduce interest rate smoothing in the simple mandate to capture the observed gradualism in policy behavior and to ensure that the probability of the federal funds rate hitting the zero lower bound is negligible.

日時

October29, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

Taisuke Nakata (Federal Reserve Board)

The Risk of Returning to the Zero Lower Bound: An Implication for Inflation Dynamics after Liftoff

[PDF 1] [PDF2]

Abstract

PDF 1) The Risky Steady State and the Interest-Rate Lower Bound (joint with Timothy Hills and Sebastian Schmidt)

 The possibility that the policy rate becomes constrained by its e ective lower bound (ELB) in the future leads price-setters to choose lower prices than they would otherwise choose in the absence of such a possibility. As a consequence, in ation falls below its long-run target in the interest-rate feedback rule even when all exogenous shocks dissipate and the economy is at the risky steady state. In an empirically rich DSGE model calibrated to match key features of the U.S. economy, we nd that in ation is 25 basis points below the in ation target at the risky steady state. Our model can explain why some central banks systematically undershot their in ation targets even before the policy rates became constrained by the ELB.

 

PDF 2) Conservatism and Liquidity Traps (joint with Sebastian Schmidt)

In an economy with an occasionally binding zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint, the anticipa- tion of future ZLB episodes creates a trade-o for discretionary central banks between in ation and output stabilization. As a consequence, in ation systematically falls below target even when the policy rate is above zero. Appointing Rogo 's (1985) conservative central banker mitigates this de ationary bias away from the ZLB and enhances welfare by improving allocations both at and away from the ZLB.

日時

November 5, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

工藤教孝 (Noritaka Kudoh) (Nagoya University)

Employment and Hours over the Business Cycle in a Model with Search Frictions

Abstract

This paper studies a labor market search-matching model with multi-worker firms to investigate how firms utilize the extensive and intensive margins over the business cycle. The earnings function derived from the Stole-Zwiebel bargaining acts as an adjustment cost function for employment and hours. We calibrate the model to match the Japanese labor market, in which the intensive margin accounts for 79% of the variations in total working hours. The model replicates the observed cyclical behavior of hours of work, but fails to generate employment volatility of realistic magnitude. Additional penalties for longer hours of work do not resolve this issue. Wage rigidity and persistent shocks are promising lines of further investigations.

日時

November 12, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

Alexander Wolman (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)

Monetary Policy and Global Equilibria in an Economy with Capital (joint with Andreas Hornstein and Tim Hursey) [PDF]

Abstract

Short-term interest rates in the United States have been near their lower bound since late 2008. Treasury rates out to a two-year maturity have been close to zero since mid-2011, and over this same period, inflation has been declining. This combination of low interest rates and declining inflation has lead some observers to point to the "perils of Taylor rules," for example, Bullard (2010), when a monetary policy that actively targets a positive inflation rate leads to an outcome with much lower inflation, and possibly even deflation. The possibility of equilibria with persistent deviations of inflation from the target set by the policy maker has been investigated for model economies without state variables. Quantitative representations of the U.S. economy as embodied by DSGE models include as an essential element capital accumulation. In this paper we study the possibility for persistent low inflation outcomes for a monetary model with capital.

日時

November 19, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

稲葉大 (Masaru Inaba) (Kansai University)

 The Regional Business Cycle and Growth Features of Japan (joint with Keisuke Otsu) [PDF]

Abstract

We study the features of regional business cycles and growth in Japan. We find evidence of unconditional convergence over the 1955-2008 period and conditional convergence over the 1975-2008 period. We also find evidence of financial frictions driving down cross-regional consumption correlation during the 1975-2008 period.

日時

November 26, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

大瀧雅之(Masayuki Otaki) (The University of Tokyo)

Public Debt as a Burden on the Future Generation: A Keynesian Approach

Abstract

 

日時

December 3, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

砂川武貴 (Takeki Sunakawa) (The University of Tokyo)

Sustainable International Monetary Policy Cooperation (joint with Ippei Fujiwara and Timothy Kam)[paper]

Abstract

We provide new insight on international monetary policy cooperation using a symmetric two - country model based on Benigno and Benigno [2006]. An incentive feasibility problem exists between the policymake rs across national borders: Under asymmetric volatilities of shocks among the countries, the home country has an incentive to deviate from an assumed cooperation regime to one with non - cooperation in response to a positive markup shock in the home country. This motivates our study of a constrained cooperation regime which is endogenously sustained by a cross - country, state - contingent contract. We label such a regime sustainable cooperation. Under sustainable cooperation, the responses of inflation and the o utput gap in both countries are different from those induced by the cooperation and non - cooperation regimes reflecting the endogenous welfare redistribution between countries under the state - contingent contract.

日時

December 10, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

関 麻衣 (Mai Seki) (JICA Research Institute)

Degree Inflation and Hierarchical Labor Demand (joint with Seung-Gyu (Andrew) Sim and Shoya Ishimaru) [paper]

Abstract

 

日時

December 17, 2015 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

Gianluca Benigno (London School of Economics)

Stagnation Traps [PDF]

Abstract

We provide a Keynesian growth theory in which pessimistic expectations can lead to very persistent, or even permanent, slumps characterized by unemployment and weak growth. We refer to these episodes as stagnation traps, because they consist in the joint occurrence of a liquidity and a growth trap. In a stagnation trap, the central bank is unable to restore full employment because weak growth pushes the interest rate against the zero lower bound, while growth is weak because low aggregate demand results in low profits, limiting firms' investment in innovation. Policies aiming at restoring growth can successfully lead the economy out of a stagnation trap, thus rationalizing the notion of job creating growth.

日時

December 24, 2015 (木 Thursday)12:10-13:10 ※時間に注意

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

Jackie M. L. Chan (Chinese University of Hong Kong)

Trade Intermediation, Financial Frictions, and the Gains from Trade [PDF]

Abstract

This paper develops a heterogeneous firm model of international trade with trade intermediation and financial frictions. Indirect exporting through intermediaries entails lower fixed costs but larger variable costs, and thus intermediaries alleviate financial frictions which magnify the fixed cost of exporting. The model finds strong empirical support in firm-level data on indirect exports for over 100 countries as well as country-level data on entrepot trade through Hong Kong for over 50 countries. Financially more constrained exporting firms and financially less developed countries are more likely to use trade intermediaries. Both of these effects are stronger in financially more vulnerable industries. Calibrating a two-country version of the model in general equilibrium for China and US reveals important gains from trade intermediation. When indirect exporting is eliminated from China, welfare, exports, and the share of exporting firms fall by 0.24%, 18%, and 59% respectively. Moreover, as financial frictions in China increase, the share of exporting firms relying on trade intermediation relative to direct exporting rises.

日時

March 10, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室


in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Ippei Shibata (University of Chicago)

Labor Market Dynamics: A Hidden Markov Approach [PDF]

Abstract

This paper proposes a hidden state Markov model (HMM) that incorporates workers’ unobserved labor market attachment into the analysis of labor market dynamics. Unlike previous literature, which typically assumes that a worker’s observed labor force status follows a first-order Markov process, the proposed HMM allows workers with the same labor force status to have different history-dependent transition probabilities. I show that the estimated HMM generates labor market transition probabilities that match those observed in the data, while the first-order Markov model (FOM) and its manystate extensions cannot. Even compared with the extended FOM, the HMM improves the fit of the empirical transition probabilities by a factor of 30. I apply the HMM to (1) calculate the long-run consequences of separation from stable employment, (2) study evolutions of employment stability across different demographic groups over the past several decades, (3) compare the dynamics of labor market flows during the Great Recession to those during the 1981 recession, and (4) highlight the importance of looking beyond distributions of current labor force status.

日時

March 24, 2016 (木 Thursday)16:50-18:35

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室


in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Hans A. Holter (University of Oslo)

How do Tax Progressivity and Household Heterogeneity affect Laffer Curves?

Abstract

 

 

日時 ※ 2016年1月 修士論文報告会 Master's Thesis Presentations ※

1.下記の予定は変更の可能性もありますのでご注意下さい

(Please note that the following schedule might be changed)。

2.発表は基本的に日本語で行われますが、希望により英語の発表も可能です。

(Presentations are basically in Japanese. You can choose English if you wish.)。

発表者の方へ

発表論文についてはCIRJEにて印刷し、当日会場にて配布いたします。つきましては、下記の期日までに最終稿のファイルまたはハードコピーをご提出ください。

 

発表論文提出期限(厳守):

1月 7日(木)発表者=1月 7日(木)朝9:00(必着)まで

1月14日(木)発表者=1月14日(木)朝9:00(必着)まで

1月21日(木)発表者=1月21日(木)朝9:00(必着)まで

1月 28日(木)発表者= 1月 28日(木)朝9:00(必着)まで

2月 4日(木)発表者= 2月 4日(木)朝9:00(必着)まで

 

提出先:学術交流棟(小島ホール)6階 CIRJE(cirje [at mark]e.u-tokyo.ac.jp)

  1. 上記提出期限の日時を過ぎたものについてはいかなる理由があっても受け付けられません。ご自身で15部のコピーをご用意の上、当日会場にご持参ください。
  2. 論文は必ず最終稿をご提出ください。提出後の差し替えは受け付けませんので、差し替えなければならない事態が発生した場合には、論文はご自身で印刷して(15部)当日持参して頂くことになります。
  3. 添付ファイルが破損している等、ファイルが開けない場合は連絡を差し上げるため、ファイルで提出される方はお申し込み時に携帯電話番号等、当日すぐに連絡のつく連絡先をお書き添え下さい。
  4. 別途、正式な修士論文口述試験が行なわれるので、修士論文提出時に大学院係 から配付される審査日程を参照のうえ、必ずご出席下さい。
  5. パソコン・ポインターはセミナー室ロッカー内の機器をご使用のうえ、設置・片づけは最初と最後の発表者が各自で行って下さい。(プロジェクターは会場に備え付けられています。)
  6. 発表用のスライドファイルを入れるUSBには、(他のファイルを入れずに)スライドファイルのみを入れて会場へお持ち下さい。(スライド以外の情報がたくさん入ったUSBが認識されない、というトラブルが起きているためです。)

Your thesis paper is distributed at the seminar venue.  Please send an electronic file of it to CIRJE at cirje [at mark] e.u-tokyo.ac.jp, so that CIRJE can duplicate it.  You can also bring its hardcopy directly to the CIRJE office on the 6th floor of Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall). 

 

The submission deadline is (please be punctual):

January 7 (Thursday)… by 9:00am, January 7 (Thursday)
January 14 (Thursday)…by 9:00am, January 14 (Thursday)

January 21 (Thursday)…by 9:00am, January 21 (Thursday)

January 28 (Thursday)…by 9:00am, January 28 (Thursday)

February 4 (Thursday)…by 9:00am, February 4(Thursday)

 

Make sure that

  • Submission behind the deadline is not accepted for any reason.
  • The file/hardcopy submitted to CIRJE should be the final version.
  • You need to send your emergency contact information such as cell phone number together with your thesis file, so that CIRJE can immediately reach you in case the file cannot be opened/is broken
  • Please put a file of your presentation slides only in your USB memory when you come to the seminar venue since it is sometimes not recognized when other files are inculded in the USB memory.

Those who missed the deadline or those who would like to revise the thesis paper after the submission, are required to make 15 hardcopies of it and bring them to the seminar venue on the presentation day.

You MUST attend an official oral examination in addition to this master thesis presentation:  for details, please see the schedule to be distributed by the Graduate Office when you submit your thesis.

Presenters can use equipment such as a computer and a pointer in a locker in the seminar venue on the presentation day:  make sure they should be back into place after use.


日時

2016年1月7日(木 Thursday)16:00-16:40

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

堀 展子(Readers: 青木 渡辺 (平野))

トレンドインフレ率の変化:消費税率の変化と企業の価格決定行動

日時

2016年1月7日(木 Thursday)16:40-17:20

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

澁谷陽子(Readers: 青木 平野 (渡辺))

Time Inconsistency in Liquidity Regulation

日時

2016年1月7日(木 Thursday)17:20-18:00

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

千葉安佐子 (Readers: 青木 平野 (吉川))

Financial Contagion on Interbank Networks and Real Economy

日時

2016年1月7日(木 Thursday)18:00-18:40

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

佐古佳史 (Readers: 青木 平野 (吉川))

Asset Price Bubbles and Inflation Rate

日時

2016年1月14日(木 Thursday)16:00-16:40

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

松元英信 (Readers:渡辺 青木 (吉川))

The Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Changes on Consumer Prices

日時

2016年1月14日(木 Thursday)16:40-17:20

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

庄司俊章 (Readers: 渡辺 青木 (吉川))

Consumer Inventory and Purchase Timings: Evidence from the Japanese VAT Increase in 2014

日時

2016年1月14日(木 Thursday)17:20-18:00

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

CAI Peng (Readers: 渡辺 青木 (吉川))

Housing Price and Demograhphics: Evidence from China Regional Data

日時

2015年1月14日(木 Thursday)18:00-18:40

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

LIU Chang (Readers: 渡辺 青木 (吉川))

An Empirical Analysis on China's Exports Data Discrepancies

日時

2016年1月21日(木 Thursday)16:00-16:40

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

菊地康之 (Readers: 植田(和) 平野 Kucheryavyy)

The Demand of Private Financial Institutions for Government Bond

日時

2016年1月21日(木 Thursday)16:40-17:20

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

宮入祐輔 (Readers: 植田(和) 平野 Kucheryavyy)

The Effect of Unexpected US Macroeconomic News on Emerging Markets

日時

2016年1月21日(木 Thursday)17:20-18:00

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

XIN Longfu (Readers: 植田(和) 平野 Kucheryavyy)

The impact of U.S. unconventional monetary policy on small open economies

日時

2016年1月21日(木 Thursday)18:00-18:40

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

BAO Long (Readers: 植田(和) 平野 Kucheryavyy)

Margin trading and stock volatility: A heterogeneous agent-based approach

日時

2016年1月28日(木 Thursday)15:40-16:20

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

佐藤慶幸 (Readers: 岩本 青木 (植田(健))

動学的確率的一般均衡理論による歪みのある税の分析

日時

2016年2月4日(木 Thursday)16:50-17:30

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

相馬尚人 (Readers: 福田 宮尾 (新谷))

Robust Monetary Policy under Structural Parameter Uncertainty