Macroeconomics Workshop

※ 2015年3月31日

本年度終了分：

日時	April 10, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	新谷元嗣 (Mototsugu Shintani) （University of Tokyo） Quasi-Bayesian Model Selection (joint with Atsushi Inoue) [Paper]
Abstract	In this paper we establish the consistency of the model selection criterion based on the quasi-marginal likelihood obtained from Laplace-type estimators (LTE). We con- sider cases in which parameters are strongly identied, weakly identied and partially identied. Our Monte Carlo results conrm our consistency results. Our proposed procedure is applied to select among monetary macroeconomic models using US data.

日時
April 17, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
平野智裕 (Tomohiro Hirano) （University of Tokyo）

Lean Against Bubble versus Clean Up After Bubble Collapses in a Rational-Bubble Model

Abstract
We examine lean against bubble versus clean up after bubble crashes in a rational-bubble model. Over-speculation in asset bubbles is more likely to occur if the quality of the financial system is relatively high. Contrary to the conventional view, we show that macro-prudential regulation against bubble may end up increasing bubbles' growth rate and enhancing bubbly boom-bust cycles, while expectations about government's bailouts after the collapse of bubbles decrease bubbles' growth rate and dampen bubbly boom-bust cycles. However, from a welfare perspective, macro-prudential regulation is of first-order importance for taxpayers (workers who are non-bubble holders). Under some conditions, the optimal policy for taxpayers is a combination of macro-prudential regulation against bubble with government's partial bailouts after the collapse of bubbles, irrespective of whether government can commit to future bailout policy. This finding provides a theoretical foundation of the case for leaning against bubble policy as well as for clean up policy after the collapse of bubbles. By contrast, for entrepreneurs rescued by government (bubble-holders), macro-prudential regulation is welfare-reducing, while bailout policy is welfare-improving. These results suggest that if government favors bubble-holders (wall-street people), bailout policy is more likely to be undertaken, and as a result, a large bubble is creaded, which results in increasing inequality between taxpayers and bubble-holders.

日時	April 17, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	平野智裕 (Tomohiro Hirano) （University of Tokyo） Lean Against Bubble versus Clean Up After Bubble Collapses in a Rational-Bubble Model
Abstract	We examine lean against bubble versus clean up after bubble crashes in a rational-bubble model. Over-speculation in asset bubbles is more likely to occur if the quality of the financial system is relatively high. Contrary to the conventional view, we show that macro-prudential regulation against bubble may end up increasing bubbles' growth rate and enhancing bubbly boom-bust cycles, while expectations about government's bailouts after the collapse of bubbles decrease bubbles' growth rate and dampen bubbly boom-bust cycles. However, from a welfare perspective, macro-prudential regulation is of first-order importance for taxpayers (workers who are non-bubble holders). Under some conditions, the optimal policy for taxpayers is a combination of macro-prudential regulation against bubble with government's partial bailouts after the collapse of bubbles, irrespective of whether government can commit to future bailout policy. This finding provides a theoretical foundation of the case for leaning against bubble policy as well as for clean up policy after the collapse of bubbles. By contrast, for entrepreneurs rescued by government (bubble-holders), macro-prudential regulation is welfare-reducing, while bailout policy is welfare-improving. These results suggest that if government favors bubble-holders (wall-street people), bailout policy is more likely to be undertaken, and as a result, a large bubble is creaded, which results in increasing inequality between taxpayers and bubble-holders.

日時
April 24, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
山田知明 (Tomoaki Yamada) （Meiji University）

Response of Inequality to a Growth Rate Slowdown in Japanese Economy during the Lost Decades (joint with Nao Sudo and Michio Suzuki)

Abstract
In this paper, we conduct time-series analysis about how variances of income and consumption across households have responded to the growth rate slowdown of output called the lost-decades in Japan. We construct monthly series of inequalities from the 1980s to 2000s using micro data set on Japanese households, the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES), and investigate statistically when and how time series property of inequalities have changed. We nd that the lost decades has come together with permanent slowdown of income and consumption inequality growth and weakening of income and consumption correlation. We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model with households enjoying heterogeneous income proles and analyze the nature of changes in economic environments during the early 1990s that have affected both aggregate economic slowdown and developments of inequalities across households.

日時	April 24, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	山田知明 (Tomoaki Yamada) （Meiji University） Response of Inequality to a Growth Rate Slowdown in Japanese Economy during the Lost Decades (joint with Nao Sudo and Michio Suzuki)
Abstract	In this paper, we conduct time-series analysis about how variances of income and consumption across households have responded to the growth rate slowdown of output called the lost-decades in Japan. We construct monthly series of inequalities from the 1980s to 2000s using micro data set on Japanese households, the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES), and investigate statistically when and how time series property of inequalities have changed. We nd that the lost decades has come together with permanent slowdown of income and consumption inequality growth and weakening of income and consumption correlation. We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model with households enjoying heterogeneous income proles and analyze the nature of changes in economic environments during the early 1990s that have affected both aggregate economic slowdown and developments of inequalities across households.

日時
April 25, 2014 （金　Friday）16:40-18:20 ※日時と会場に注意

※第12回GSDMプラットフォームセミナーとの共催

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟3階第3教室
in Lecture Hall No. 3 on the 3rd floor of the Economics Research Building [Map]

報告
Chun-Hung Kuo （International University of Japan）

Fiscal Stimulus and Unemployment Dynamics (joint with Hiroaki Miyamoto) [PDF]

Abstract
Focusing on both hiring and firing margins, this paper revisits effects of fiscal expansion on unemployment. We provide evidence that an increase in government spending increases the job finding rate and reduces the separation rate, lowering unemployment in the U.S. by using a structural VAR model. We then develop a DSGE model with search frictions where job separation is endogenously determined. Our model can capture the empirical pattern of responses of the job finding, separation, and unemployment rates to a government spending shock. We also demonstrate that model's predictions are in contrast with earlier studies that assume exogenous separation.

日時	April 25, 2014 （金　Friday）16:40-18:20 ※日時と会場に注意 ※第12回GSDMプラットフォームセミナーとの共催
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟3階第3教室 in Lecture Hall No. 3 on the 3rd floor of the Economics Research Building [Map]
報告	Chun-Hung Kuo （International University of Japan） Fiscal Stimulus and Unemployment Dynamics (joint with Hiroaki Miyamoto) [PDF]
Abstract	Focusing on both hiring and firing margins, this paper revisits effects of fiscal expansion on unemployment. We provide evidence that an increase in government spending increases the job finding rate and reduces the separation rate, lowering unemployment in the U.S. by using a structural VAR model. We then develop a DSGE model with search frictions where job separation is endogenously determined. Our model can capture the empirical pattern of responses of the job finding, separation, and unemployment rates to a government spending shock. We also demonstrate that model's predictions are in contrast with earlier studies that assume exogenous separation.

日時
May 8, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
塩路悦朗 (Etsuro Shioji) （Hitotsubashi University）

Construction of stock-market based daily index of fiscal news for Japan (joint with Hiroshi Morita) [PDF]

Abstract
This paper aims to construct daily data on fiscal policy surprises, based on a cross section of stock returns. It is essentially a weighted average of the responses of individual company's stock returns to important fiscal news, on the days that the news arrives. The weights reflect importance of fiscal matters to each firm: they are computed from the estimated importance of the fiscal policy shocks to each firm's stock returns. Based on this idea and utilizing the stock market data for the Japanese construction companies, we construct a daily series on surprises about public investment policies in Japan. It is confirmed that, when aggregated up to the quarterly frequency, our indicator predicts future changes in public investment in the National Accounts. The effect on future private consumption is also positive.

日時	May 8, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	塩路悦朗 (Etsuro Shioji) （Hitotsubashi University） Construction of stock-market based daily index of fiscal news for Japan (joint with Hiroshi Morita) [PDF]
Abstract	This paper aims to construct daily data on fiscal policy surprises, based on a cross section of stock returns. It is essentially a weighted average of the responses of individual company's stock returns to important fiscal news, on the days that the news arrives. The weights reflect importance of fiscal matters to each firm: they are computed from the estimated importance of the fiscal policy shocks to each firm's stock returns. Based on this idea and utilizing the stock market data for the Japanese construction companies, we construct a daily series on surprises about public investment policies in Japan. It is confirmed that, when aggregated up to the quarterly frequency, our indicator predicts future changes in public investment in the National Accounts. The effect on future private consumption is also positive.

日時
May 15, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
上田晃三 (Kozo Ueda) （Waseda University）

Working Less and Bargain Hunting More: Macro Implications of Sales during Japan's Lost Decades [PDF]

Abstract
During the lost decades in the 1990s and 2000s, Japan witnessed the rising frequency of temporary sales and the declining hours worked. Motivated by this negative correlation, we construct a DSGE model with sales, wherein households go bargain hunting and firms determine its sale frequency endogenously. In the model, bargain hunting helps households avoid purchasing regular-priced goods, but it is time consuming like labor supply. We show that the real effects of monetary policy may weaken, because sales prices are frequently revised and endogenous bargain hunting enhances the strategic substitutability of sales. The real effects of technology shock, by contrast, may strengthen. The model reveals that declines in hours worked during Japan's lost decades account for an actual rise in the frequency of sales and a rise in the fraction of bargain hunters.

日時	May 15, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	上田晃三 (Kozo Ueda) （Waseda University） Working Less and Bargain Hunting More: Macro Implications of Sales during Japan's Lost Decades [PDF]
Abstract	During the lost decades in the 1990s and 2000s, Japan witnessed the rising frequency of temporary sales and the declining hours worked. Motivated by this negative correlation, we construct a DSGE model with sales, wherein households go bargain hunting and firms determine its sale frequency endogenously. In the model, bargain hunting helps households avoid purchasing regular-priced goods, but it is time consuming like labor supply. We show that the real effects of monetary policy may weaken, because sales prices are frequently revised and endogenous bargain hunting enhances the strategic substitutability of sales. The real effects of technology shock, by contrast, may strengthen. The model reveals that declines in hours worked during Japan's lost decades account for an actual rise in the frequency of sales and a rise in the fraction of bargain hunters.

日時
May 22, 2014 （木　Thursday）14:50-16:30 ※時間に注意。

※　財政・公共経済ワークショップと共催

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
小野哲生 (Testuo Ono) (Osaka University)

Intergenerational politics, government debt and economic growth [PDF]

Abstract
This paper develops a two-period overlapping-generations model featuring endogenous growth and intergenerational conflict over fiscal policy. In particular, the paper characterizes a Markov-perfect political equilibrium of the voting game between generations, and shows the following results. First, in an unbalanced budget case, the government borrows or lends in the capital market depending on the share of capital in production. Second, when the government borrows in the capital market, an introduction of a balanced budget rule results in a higher growth rate. Third, to obtain a normative implication of the political equilibrium, the paper considers a benevolent planner with a commitment technology, and shows that the planner always chooses to lend in the capital market to save more for future generations and thus attains a higher growth rate than the government in a political equilibrium.

日時	May 22, 2014 （木　Thursday）14:50-16:30 ※時間に注意。 ※　財政・公共経済ワークショップと共催
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	小野哲生 (Testuo Ono) (Osaka University) Intergenerational politics, government debt and economic growth [PDF]
Abstract	This paper develops a two-period overlapping-generations model featuring endogenous growth and intergenerational conflict over fiscal policy. In particular, the paper characterizes a Markov-perfect political equilibrium of the voting game between generations, and shows the following results. First, in an unbalanced budget case, the government borrows or lends in the capital market depending on the share of capital in production. Second, when the government borrows in the capital market, an introduction of a balanced budget rule results in a higher growth rate. Third, to obtain a normative implication of the political equilibrium, the paper considers a benevolent planner with a commitment technology, and shows that the planner always chooses to lend in the capital market to save more for future generations and thus attains a higher growth rate than the government in a political equilibrium.

日時
May 22, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
奴田原健悟 (Kengo Nutahara) （Senshu University）

Asset price targeting government spending and equilibrium indeterminacy in a sticky-price economy

Abstract
This study describes the asset price fluctuation is a target of fiscal policy in Japan, and investigates aggregate implications of this fiscal policy theoretically. In our sticky-price model, the monetary authority follows a Taylor rule and the fiscal authority follows a rule that the target of government spending is asset prices and responds negatively to the asset price fluctuations. It is shown that government spending that targets asset prices is a source of equilibrium indeterminacy.

日時	May 22, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	奴田原健悟 (Kengo Nutahara) （Senshu University） Asset price targeting government spending and equilibrium indeterminacy in a sticky-price economy
Abstract	This study describes the asset price fluctuation is a target of fiscal policy in Japan, and investigates aggregate implications of this fiscal policy theoretically. In our sticky-price model, the monetary authority follows a Taylor rule and the fiscal authority follows a rule that the target of government spending is asset prices and responds negatively to the asset price fluctuations. It is shown that government spending that targets asset prices is a source of equilibrium indeterminacy.

日時
May 30, 2014 （金　Friday）16:40-18:20 　※曜日に注意

※CARF　『バブル、金融危機と政策対応研究会』」との共催

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
Tobias Adrian （Federal Reserve Bank of New York）

Intermediary Leverage Cycles and Financial Stability (joint with Nina Boyarchenko)[paper]

Abstract
We present a theory of financial intermediary leverage cycles within a dynamic model of the macroeconomy. Intermediaries face risk-based funding constraints that give rise to procyclical leverage and a procyclical share of intermediated credit. The pricing of risk varies as a function of intermediary leverage, and asset return exposure to intermediary leverage shocks earns a positive risk premium. Relative to an economy with constant leverage, financial intermediaries generate higher consumption growth and lower consumption volatility in normal times, at the cost of endogenous systemic financial risk. The severity of systemic crisis depends on intermediaries' leverage and net worth. Regulations that tighten funding constraints affect the systemic risk- return trade-off by lowering the likelihood of systemic crises at the cost of higher pricing of risk.

日時	May 30, 2014 （金　Friday）16:40-18:20 　※曜日に注意 ※CARF　『バブル、金融危機と政策対応研究会』」との共催
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第1セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	Tobias Adrian （Federal Reserve Bank of New York） Intermediary Leverage Cycles and Financial Stability (joint with Nina Boyarchenko)[paper]
Abstract	We present a theory of financial intermediary leverage cycles within a dynamic model of the macroeconomy. Intermediaries face risk-based funding constraints that give rise to procyclical leverage and a procyclical share of intermediated credit. The pricing of risk varies as a function of intermediary leverage, and asset return exposure to intermediary leverage shocks earns a positive risk premium. Relative to an economy with constant leverage, financial intermediaries generate higher consumption growth and lower consumption volatility in normal times, at the cost of endogenous systemic financial risk. The severity of systemic crisis depends on intermediaries' leverage and net worth. Regulations that tighten funding constraints affect the systemic risk- return trade-off by lowering the likelihood of systemic crises at the cost of higher pricing of risk.

日時
June 5, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
山本庸平（Yohei Yamamoto) (Hitotsubashi University)

On Structural Change and Forecasting Performance Stability of Japanese Phillips Curve Models

Abstract
This paper statistically investigates structural change in the Japanese Phillips curve models and their forecasting performance stability. I find that there are three significant mean shifts in Japanese inflation data from 1970 to 2013. By considering them as exogenous effects, I did not find significant structural change in the Phillips curve slope coefficients in most cases of various real economic activity measures. However, if the model includes inflation expectation in the manner of rational expectation, the coefficients are found to be less stable. I also find evidence of so-called forecast breakdown in inflation forecasts if I use the Phillips curve model estimated by the data after 1982 in which the coefficients are deemed to be stable, together with inflation data with the mean shifts to account for possible exogenous mean shifts in the future.

日時	June 5, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	山本庸平（Yohei Yamamoto) (Hitotsubashi University) On Structural Change and Forecasting Performance Stability of Japanese Phillips Curve Models
Abstract	This paper statistically investigates structural change in the Japanese Phillips curve models and their forecasting performance stability. I find that there are three significant mean shifts in Japanese inflation data from 1970 to 2013. By considering them as exogenous effects, I did not find significant structural change in the Phillips curve slope coefficients in most cases of various real economic activity measures. However, if the model includes inflation expectation in the manner of rational expectation, the coefficients are found to be less stable. I also find evidence of so-called forecast breakdown in inflation forecasts if I use the Phillips curve model estimated by the data after 1982 in which the coefficients are deemed to be stable, together with inflation data with the mean shifts to account for possible exogenous mean shifts in the future.

日時
June 19, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20 　※会場に注意

※みずほ寄付講座特別講義

場所
東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟　地下１階第1教室
in Lecture Hall No.1 on the basement floor of the Economics Research Building [Map]

※会場が経済学研究科棟へ変更いたしました。/The venue has been changed to the Economics Reserach Building.

報告
ラース・E・O・スヴェンソン (Lars E.O. Svensson) (Stockholm School of Economics)

Monetary Policy, Financial Stability, and Leaning Against the Wind [PDF]

Abstract
Should inflation targeting involve some leaning against the wind? Sweden provides a case study, since the Riksbank has been leaning against the wind since 2010, stating concerns about risks associated with household indebtedness. The cost of this policy in terms of low inflation and high unemployment is high. According to the Riksbank's own analysis, the policy rate effect on household indebtedness is very small, and any effect on risks associated with household debt is miniscule. Indeed, much lower inflation than expected has increased households' debt burden and, if anything, increased such risks.

日時	June 19, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20 　※会場に注意 ※みずほ寄付講座特別講義
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟　地下１階第1教室 in Lecture Hall No.1 on the basement floor of the Economics Research Building [Map] ※会場が経済学研究科棟へ変更いたしました。/The venue has been changed to the Economics Reserach Building.
報告	ラース・E・O・スヴェンソン (Lars E.O. Svensson) (Stockholm School of Economics) Monetary Policy, Financial Stability, and Leaning Against the Wind [PDF]
Abstract	Should inflation targeting involve some leaning against the wind? Sweden provides a case study, since the Riksbank has been leaning against the wind since 2010, stating concerns about risks associated with household indebtedness. The cost of this policy in terms of low inflation and high unemployment is high. According to the Riksbank's own analysis, the policy rate effect on household indebtedness is very small, and any effect on risks associated with household debt is miniscule. Indeed, much lower inflation than expected has increased households' debt burden and, if anything, increased such risks.

日時
~~June 26, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20~~ *Schedule Cancelled

場所

報告
西山慎一 (Shin-Ichi Nishiyama) (Tohoku University)

Abstract
上記セミナーは中止となりました。

日時	~~June 26, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20~~ *Schedule Cancelled
場所
報告	西山慎一 (Shin-Ichi Nishiyama) (Tohoku University)
Abstract	上記セミナーは中止となりました。

日時
July 3, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
Alexis Akira Toda (University of California, San Diego)

Asset Pricing and the 1% [Paper]

Abstract
We find that when the income share of the top 1% income earners in the U.S. rises above trend by one percentage point, subsequent one year market excess returns decline on average by 5.6%. This negative relation remains strong and significant even when controlling for classic return predictors such as the price-dividend and the consumption-wealth ratios. To explain this stylized fact, we build a general equilibrium asset pricing model with heterogeneity in wealth and risk aversion across agents. Our model admits a testable moment condition and a novel two factor covariance pricing formula, where one factor is inequality. Intuitively, when wealth shifts into the hands of rich and risk tolerant agents, average risk aversion falls, pushing down the risk premium. Our model is broadly consistent with data and provides a novel positive explanation of both market excess returns over time and the cross section of returns across stocks.

日時	July 3, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	Alexis Akira Toda (University of California, San Diego) Asset Pricing and the 1% [Paper]
Abstract	We find that when the income share of the top 1% income earners in the U.S. rises above trend by one percentage point, subsequent one year market excess returns decline on average by 5.6%. This negative relation remains strong and significant even when controlling for classic return predictors such as the price-dividend and the consumption-wealth ratios. To explain this stylized fact, we build a general equilibrium asset pricing model with heterogeneity in wealth and risk aversion across agents. Our model admits a testable moment condition and a novel two factor covariance pricing formula, where one factor is inequality. Intuitively, when wealth shifts into the hands of rich and risk tolerant agents, average risk aversion falls, pushing down the risk premium. Our model is broadly consistent with data and provides a novel positive explanation of both market excess returns over time and the cross section of returns across stocks.

日時
July 10, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
小林慶一郎 (Keiichiro Kobayashi) （Keio University）

Dynamic debt restructuring and optimal evergreening (with Tomoyuki Nakajima and Daichi Shirai)

Abstract
As output declines persistently in the aftermath of financial crises, a large debt stock seems to have a persistent and negative effect on output. We consider a model of borrowing constraints on debt which consists of both short-term and long-term debt. Under a certain parameter configuration there exists a conspicuous nonlinearity: a debt stock that exceeds a threshold depresses the output permanently whereas a debt under the threshold has a temporary effect. This nonlinearity is due to the fact that evergreening is optimal choice for the lender when the debt exceeds the threshold. In this model, financial crises that generate large debt stock have a negative effect on output permanently, while usual recessions that generate small debt depresses output temporarily. It is also shown that when debt restructuring is costly there exists the mixed-strategy equilibrium where some lenders choose evergreening and the others choose debt restructuring.

日時	July 10, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	小林慶一郎 (Keiichiro Kobayashi) （Keio University） Dynamic debt restructuring and optimal evergreening (with Tomoyuki Nakajima and Daichi Shirai)
Abstract	As output declines persistently in the aftermath of financial crises, a large debt stock seems to have a persistent and negative effect on output. We consider a model of borrowing constraints on debt which consists of both short-term and long-term debt. Under a certain parameter configuration there exists a conspicuous nonlinearity: a debt stock that exceeds a threshold depresses the output permanently whereas a debt under the threshold has a temporary effect. This nonlinearity is due to the fact that evergreening is optimal choice for the lender when the debt exceeds the threshold. In this model, financial crises that generate large debt stock have a negative effect on output permanently, while usual recessions that generate small debt depresses output temporarily. It is also shown that when debt restructuring is costly there exists the mixed-strategy equilibrium where some lenders choose evergreening and the others choose debt restructuring.

日時
July 11, 2014 （金　Friday）12:00-13:00 ※日時に注意

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
Lena Koerber (Bank of England)

Forecasting during the Financial Crisis: Evaluating Point and Density Forecasts of an Estimated DSGE Model for the UK" (joint with Nicholas Fawcett, Riccardo Masolo and Matt Waldron)

Abstract

日時	July 11, 2014 （金　Friday）12:00-13:00 ※日時に注意
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	Lena Koerber (Bank of England) Forecasting during the Financial Crisis: Evaluating Point and Density Forecasts of an Estimated DSGE Model for the UK" (joint with Nicholas Fawcett, Riccardo Masolo and Matt Waldron)
Abstract

日時	July 15, 2014 （火　Tuesday）16:40-18:20 ※日時に注意 ※　ミクロ経済学ワークショップと共催
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	Liang Wang (University of Hawaii) Job Search over the Life Cycle
Abstract

日時
~~July 17, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20~~

* This semianr has been postponed. Schedule will be announced later.
下記のセミナーは延期となりました。日程は後日掲載いたします。

場所

報告
Seung-Gyu Sim (University of Tokyo)

Wage Dynamics with Private Learning-by-Doing and On-the-Job Search [paper]

Abstract
This paper develops an equilibrium job search model in which the employed worker privately accumulates human capital and continually searches for a better paying job. Firms encourage production and discourage turnover by rewarding with bonus payments and long service allowances, respectively, workers with better performance and longer job tenure. Wage growth attends human capital accumulation (productive promotion) and job tenure (non-productive promotion) as well as job-to-job transition. The model is estimated using indirect inference to investigate the effect of human capital accumulation on individual wage growth. In NLSY79 data, the average wage of white male high school graduates after 20 years of market experience is 1.88 times higher than the average of the first full-time wages. A counterfactual experiment using the structural parameter estimates shows that the wage of a typical worker unable to accumulate human capital would grow by 41.8%.

日時	~~July 17, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20~~ * This semianr has been postponed. Schedule will be announced later. 下記のセミナーは延期となりました。日程は後日掲載いたします。
場所
報告	Seung-Gyu Sim (University of Tokyo) Wage Dynamics with Private Learning-by-Doing and On-the-Job Search [paper]
Abstract	This paper develops an equilibrium job search model in which the employed worker privately accumulates human capital and continually searches for a better paying job. Firms encourage production and discourage turnover by rewarding with bonus payments and long service allowances, respectively, workers with better performance and longer job tenure. Wage growth attends human capital accumulation (productive promotion) and job tenure (non-productive promotion) as well as job-to-job transition. The model is estimated using indirect inference to investigate the effect of human capital accumulation on individual wage growth. In NLSY79 data, the average wage of white male high school graduates after 20 years of market experience is 1.88 times higher than the average of the first full-time wages. A counterfactual experiment using the structural parameter estimates shows that the wage of a typical worker unable to accumulate human capital would grow by 41.8%.

日時
~~July 24, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20~~ *Schedule Cancelled

場所

報告
Toan Phan (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)

Abstract
上記セミナーは中止となりました。

日時	*~~July 24, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20~~ Schedule Cancelled**
場所
報告	Toan Phan (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)
Abstract	上記セミナーは中止となりました。

日時	August 1, 2014 （金　Friday）16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	Saroj Bhattarai (Pennsylvania State University) Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy at the Zero Lower Bound in a Small Open Economy [PDF]
Abstract	We study optimal monetary and scal policy at the zero lower bound in a small open economy model with sticky prices and a exible exchange rate. In such a liquidity trap situation, the economy suers from a negative output gap, producer price de ation, and an appreciated real exchange rate (compared to its ecient level). The extent of these adverse eects and the duration of the liquidity trap is higher, lower is the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods. Under discretion, compared to commitment, in addition to the usual \de ation bias" present in a closed economy, the equilibrium in a small open economy also features an \overvaluation bias": the real exchange rate is excessively appreciated compared to its ef- cient level. Countercyclical scal policy, that is, increasing government spending above the ecient level during the liquidity trap, constitutes optimal policy and helps decrease the extent of negative output gap and de ation, especially under discretion, but the extent of the increase in government spending is lower when the elasticity of substitution of between domestic and foreign goods is higher.

日時
September 11, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
吉川　洋 (Hiroshi Yoshikawa) （University of Tokyo）

Dynamics of inflation/deflation (joint with Hideaki Aoyama, Yoshi Fujiwara and Hiroshi Ietomi)

Abstract
Recent empirical works on micro price-setting as surveyed by Klenow and Malin (2011) have demonstrated substantial cross-sectional differences across goods. However, in flation and deflation are changes in the aggregate price index over time. Micro price data shows that individual price settings are not timeinvariant as presumed in the existing literature. The price index such as CPI contains "noises" for the purpose of macroeconomics and monetary policy. That is why central banks target at the "core" CPI. The "core" CPI is, however, defined merely on common sense and casual observation. We present a new method of extracting information on the systemic changes of the aggregate price based on micro price data. It is a kind of "true core" price index. The true core price is correlated with over-time hours worked, the unemployment rate and the exchange rate. It is not significantly correlated with money supply.

日時	September 11, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	吉川　洋 (Hiroshi Yoshikawa) （University of Tokyo） Dynamics of inflation/deflation (joint with Hideaki Aoyama, Yoshi Fujiwara and Hiroshi Ietomi)
Abstract	Recent empirical works on micro price-setting as surveyed by Klenow and Malin (2011) have demonstrated substantial cross-sectional differences across goods. However, in flation and deflation are changes in the aggregate price index over time. Micro price data shows that individual price settings are not timeinvariant as presumed in the existing literature. The price index such as CPI contains "noises" for the purpose of macroeconomics and monetary policy. That is why central banks target at the "core" CPI. The "core" CPI is, however, defined merely on common sense and casual observation. We present a new method of extracting information on the systemic changes of the aggregate price based on micro price data. It is a kind of "true core" price index. The true core price is correlated with over-time hours worked, the unemployment rate and the exchange rate. It is not significantly correlated with money supply.

日時
September 25, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20 ※会場に注意

※CARF　『バブル、金融危機と政策対応研究会』」との共催

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟　３階第３教室
in Lecture Hall No. 3 on the 3rd floor of the Economics Research Building [Map]

報告
Paul Levine （University of Surrey）

Imperfect Information, Optimal Monetary Policy and Informational Consistency (joint with Joseph Pearlman) [PDF]

Abstract
This paper examines the implications of imperfect information (II) for optimal monetary policy with a consistent set of informational assumptions for the modeller and the private sector an assumption we term the informational consistency. We use an estimated simple NK model from Levine et al. (2012), where the assumption of symmetric II significantly improves the fit of the model to US data to assess the welfare costs of II under commitment, discretion and simple Taylor-type rules. Our main results are: first, common to all information sets we find significant welfare gains from commitment only with a zero-lower bound constraint on the interest rate. Second, optimized rules take the form of a price level rule, or something very close across all information cases. Third, the combination of limited information and a lack of commitment can be particularly serious for welfare. At the same time we find that II with lags introduces a ‘tying ones hands’ effect on the policymaker that may improve welfare under discretion. Finally, the impulse response functions under our most extreme imperfect information assumption (output and inflation observed with a two-quarter delay) exhibit hump-shaped behaviour and the fiscal multiplier is significantly enhanced in this case.

日時	September 25, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20 ※会場に注意 ※CARF　『バブル、金融危機と政策対応研究会』」との共催
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科棟　３階第３教室 in Lecture Hall No. 3 on the 3rd floor of the Economics Research Building [Map]
報告	Paul Levine （University of Surrey） Imperfect Information, Optimal Monetary Policy and Informational Consistency (joint with Joseph Pearlman) [PDF]
Abstract	This paper examines the implications of imperfect information (II) for optimal monetary policy with a consistent set of informational assumptions for the modeller and the private sector an assumption we term the informational consistency. We use an estimated simple NK model from Levine et al. (2012), where the assumption of symmetric II significantly improves the fit of the model to US data to assess the welfare costs of II under commitment, discretion and simple Taylor-type rules. Our main results are: first, common to all information sets we find significant welfare gains from commitment only with a zero-lower bound constraint on the interest rate. Second, optimized rules take the form of a price level rule, or something very close across all information cases. Third, the combination of limited information and a lack of commitment can be particularly serious for welfare. At the same time we find that II with lags introduces a ‘tying ones hands’ effect on the policymaker that may improve welfare under discretion. Finally, the impulse response functions under our most extreme imperfect information assumption (output and inflation observed with a two-quarter delay) exhibit hump-shaped behaviour and the fiscal multiplier is significantly enhanced in this case.

日時
October 2, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
渡部和孝(Wako Watanabe) （Keio University）

Is Leverage a Determinant of Asset Price? Evidence from Real Estate Transaction Data (joint with Daichi Kurashima, Masashi Mizunaga and Kazuhiko Odaki) [PDF]

Abstract
By exploiting the correlation between the legal type of a property purchased as collateral and loan to value (LTV), particularly the positive correlation between use of the property as revolving collateral and LTV as a strong and valid instrumental variable for LTV, we isolate the positive effect of LTV on the property price from the observed negative reverse causality. We also find that the effect of LTV on the property price is far greater when unleveraged property transactions purchased with 100 percent equity financing are excluded than when they are included.

日時	October 2, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	渡部和孝(Wako Watanabe) （Keio University） Is Leverage a Determinant of Asset Price? Evidence from Real Estate Transaction Data (joint with Daichi Kurashima, Masashi Mizunaga and Kazuhiko Odaki) [PDF]
Abstract	By exploiting the correlation between the legal type of a property purchased as collateral and loan to value (LTV), particularly the positive correlation between use of the property as revolving collateral and LTV as a strong and valid instrumental variable for LTV, we isolate the positive effect of LTV on the property price from the observed negative reverse causality. We also find that the effect of LTV on the property price is far greater when unleveraged property transactions purchased with 100 percent equity financing are excluded than when they are included.

日時
October 9, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
櫻川昌哉 (Masaya Sakuragawa) （Keio University）

Global imbalance, geography of bubble holding, and boom-bust cycle [PDF]

Abstract
We describe a simple model that explains global imbalancesand the　boom-bust cycle that have　taken place over the past decade　from the lens of　rational bubble model. Four factors that we address are (i) the difference in a country’s financial depth, (ii) the increase in savings in emerging countries, (iii) the emergence and bursting of asset bubbles, and (iv)　the geography　of the holding of bubbly assets.The developed model captures　well the reality of the bubbly boom　that has actually occurred. The global imbalance involves　the emergence of bubbles, the boost to savings of emerging countries, high leverage and credit growth of advanced countries. The quantitative analysis shows that the geographyof the holding of bubbly assetsas well as the difference in the financial depth　are necessary to explain global imbalances and the great recession in 2009.

日時	October 9, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	櫻川昌哉 (Masaya Sakuragawa) （Keio University） Global imbalance, geography of bubble holding, and boom-bust cycle [PDF]
Abstract	We describe a simple model that explains global imbalancesand the　boom-bust cycle that have　taken place over the past decade　from the lens of　rational bubble model. Four factors that we address are (i) the difference in a country’s financial depth, (ii) the increase in savings in emerging countries, (iii) the emergence and bursting of asset bubbles, and (iv)　the geography　of the holding of bubbly assets.The developed model captures　well the reality of the bubbly boom　that has actually occurred. The global imbalance involves　the emergence of bubbles, the boost to savings of emerging countries, high leverage and credit growth of advanced countries. The quantitative analysis shows that the geographyof the holding of bubbly assetsas well as the difference in the financial depth　are necessary to explain global imbalances and the great recession in 2009.

日時
October 16, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20*Speaker Changed

報告
砂川武貴（Takeki Sunakawa) （University of Tokyo）
A Quantitative Analysis of Optimal Sustainable Monetary Policies [paper]

Abstract
This study examines the quantitative properties of optimal sustainable monetary policies using a monetary model with a stabilization bias. As in Kurozumi (2008), the optimal sustainable policy is a strategy considered in the absence of commitment technologies; however it is implemented following an optimal quasi-sustainable policy derived by assuming that the commitment technologies are present. This study finds that solving for the policy function of the optimal quasi-sustainable policy yields a result identical to the Ramsey-optimal commitment policy under a set of parameters commonly used in the literature. The simulation shows two further results: policymakers have incentive to deviate from the Ramsey-optimal commitment policy when the lagged output gap is large and the optimal quasi-sustainable policy endogenously diminishes the steadfastness of policymakers' commitment.

日時	October 16, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20*Speaker Changed
報告	砂川武貴（Takeki Sunakawa) （University of Tokyo） A Quantitative Analysis of Optimal Sustainable Monetary Policies [paper]
Abstract	This study examines the quantitative properties of optimal sustainable monetary policies using a monetary model with a stabilization bias. As in Kurozumi (2008), the optimal sustainable policy is a strategy considered in the absence of commitment technologies; however it is implemented following an optimal quasi-sustainable policy derived by assuming that the commitment technologies are present. This study finds that solving for the policy function of the optimal quasi-sustainable policy yields a result identical to the Ramsey-optimal commitment policy under a set of parameters commonly used in the literature. The simulation shows two further results: policymakers have incentive to deviate from the Ramsey-optimal commitment policy when the lagged output gap is large and the optimal quasi-sustainable policy endogenously diminishes the steadfastness of policymakers' commitment.

日時
October 23, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
植杉威一郎（Iichiro Uesugi) （Hitotsubashi University）

Effects of a Megabank Merger on Firm-Bank Relationships and Borrowing Costs (joint with Taisuke Uchino) [PDF]

Abstract
Using a unique dataset of non-listed firms that identifies the banks the firms transact with, we examine the effects of the largest-ever bank merger in Japan, that between Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi (BTM) and UFJ Bank (UFJ) in 2005. We focus on how the merger affected firms through their firm-bank relationships. Specifically, we examine whether there are any differences in how the availability of loans evolved over time for firms that prior to the merger transacted with both of the merged banks, with one of the merged banks, or with none of them. We find the following: (1) Firms that had transacted with both BTM and UFJ saw their borrowing costs increase by 35bp relative to those that had transacted with neither of them. (2) Firms that transacted with one of the two banks saw their borrowing costs increase by a smaller but still significant margin of 12bp relative to those that had transacted with neither of them. And (3) we do not find a significant difference in the extent that borrowing costs increased between firms that transacted with the acquiring bank (BTM) and those that transacted with the acquired bank (UFJ). These results are robust even after controlling for the merger-induced change of market concentration. In sum, the bank merger increased firms borrowing costs partly through the exogenous decrease in the number of firm-bank relationships and partly through changes in the management of the merged bank.

日時	October 23, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	植杉威一郎（Iichiro Uesugi) （Hitotsubashi University） Effects of a Megabank Merger on Firm-Bank Relationships and Borrowing Costs (joint with Taisuke Uchino) [PDF]
Abstract	Using a unique dataset of non-listed firms that identifies the banks the firms transact with, we examine the effects of the largest-ever bank merger in Japan, that between Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi (BTM) and UFJ Bank (UFJ) in 2005. We focus on how the merger affected firms through their firm-bank relationships. Specifically, we examine whether there are any differences in how the availability of loans evolved over time for firms that prior to the merger transacted with both of the merged banks, with one of the merged banks, or with none of them. We find the following: (1) Firms that had transacted with both BTM and UFJ saw their borrowing costs increase by 35bp relative to those that had transacted with neither of them. (2) Firms that transacted with one of the two banks saw their borrowing costs increase by a smaller but still significant margin of 12bp relative to those that had transacted with neither of them. And (3) we do not find a significant difference in the extent that borrowing costs increased between firms that transacted with the acquiring bank (BTM) and those that transacted with the acquired bank (UFJ). These results are robust even after controlling for the merger-induced change of market concentration. In sum, the bank merger increased firms borrowing costs partly through the exogenous decrease in the number of firm-bank relationships and partly through changes in the management of the merged bank.

日時
October 30, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
松岡多利思 (Tarishi Matsuoka) （Tokyo Metropolitan University）

Incomplete Deposit Contracts, Banking Crises, and Monetary Policy [PDF]

Abstract
Money plays important roles in modern financial systems. This study develops a banking model comprising monetary factors in order to investigate the relationship between money and banking crises. In the model, it is assumed that banking deposit contracts are not contingent on the state of nature. We show that under incomplete contracts, a banking crisis may occur when inflation is sufficiently low or high. The result appears to be consistent with empirical evidence. We also show that the zero-inflation policy can be optimal under either complete or incomplete banking contracts, despite the Friedman rule eliminating the possibility of crises.

日時	October 30, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	松岡多利思 (Tarishi Matsuoka) （Tokyo Metropolitan University） Incomplete Deposit Contracts, Banking Crises, and Monetary Policy [PDF]
Abstract	Money plays important roles in modern financial systems. This study develops a banking model comprising monetary factors in order to investigate the relationship between money and banking crises. In the model, it is assumed that banking deposit contracts are not contingent on the state of nature. We show that under incomplete contracts, a banking crisis may occur when inflation is sufficiently low or high. The result appears to be consistent with empirical evidence. We also show that the zero-inflation policy can be optimal under either complete or incomplete banking contracts, despite the Friedman rule eliminating the possibility of crises.

日時
November 6, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
Tim Kam (Australian National University)
Democracy, Public Goods and Private Activity Spillovers [paper]

Abstract
Some public good outcomes depend not only on direct public and/or private financing, but also on non-pecuniary spillover effects from private activity. These are often termed impure public goods. Examples include private accumulation of human capital that impact positively on the level of public knowledge, and, private consumption of goods that have negative externality on an environmental public good. We study how the presence of such private spillovers onto a public good matter for the existence of politico-economic equilibria in a tractable overlapping-generations model of voting under stationary Markovian strategies. We also discuss the consequences for equilibrium welfare redistribution and the composition between public funding for and spillover effects onto the public good.

日時	November 6, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	Tim Kam (Australian National University) Democracy, Public Goods and Private Activity Spillovers [paper]
Abstract	Some public good outcomes depend not only on direct public and/or private financing, but also on non-pecuniary spillover effects from private activity. These are often termed impure public goods. Examples include private accumulation of human capital that impact positively on the level of public knowledge, and, private consumption of goods that have negative externality on an environmental public good. We study how the presence of such private spillovers onto a public good matter for the existence of politico-economic equilibria in a tractable overlapping-generations model of voting under stationary Markovian strategies. We also discuss the consequences for equilibrium welfare redistribution and the composition between public funding for and spillover effects onto the public good.

日時
November 13, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20

※CARF　『バブル、金融危機と政策対応研究会』」との共催

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
Serene Tan （National University of Singapore)
Does Risk Aversion Matter in Directed Search Models? (joint with Nicolas L. Jacquet and John Kennes)

Abstract
Search models of the labor market generally assume that firms and workers are risk neutral, even though workers are generally thought of as more risk averse than firms, because if workers are modelled as risk averse then we have to worry about the savings decisions of workers, which often makes the models too complicated to characterize analytically. In this paper, we use a directed search framework where workers and firms are playing a static game, so there is no savings decision to worry about, and seek answers to this question: how much do we gain or lose by assuming that workers are risk neutral rather than risk averse. We allow firms to post general contracts advertising the number of workers they would pay as well as the (same) payment all will receive, and we examine two cases in our paper: one where workers are risk neutral, and one where workers are risk averse, both when the economies are finite and large. Our paper shows that whether workers are modelled as risk neutral or risk averse matters a lot: the types of symmetric equilibria and the nature of the multiplicity of equilibria are different. Somewhat surprisingly, when there are finite numbers of workers and firms, we obtain a finite number of symmetric equilibria when workers are risk neutral, but a continuum of equilibria when workers are risk averse. Furthermore, our paper sounds a cautionary note on using large economies as an approximation of finite economies: when workers are risk neutral the nature of equilibrium is preserved going from a finite to a large economy, but the nature of equilibrium going from a finite to a large economy is completely different when workers are risk averse.

日時	November 13, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20 ※CARF　『バブル、金融危機と政策対応研究会』」との共催
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	Serene Tan （National University of Singapore) Does Risk Aversion Matter in Directed Search Models? (joint with Nicolas L. Jacquet and John Kennes)
Abstract	Search models of the labor market generally assume that firms and workers are risk neutral, even though workers are generally thought of as more risk averse than firms, because if workers are modelled as risk averse then we have to worry about the savings decisions of workers, which often makes the models too complicated to characterize analytically. In this paper, we use a directed search framework where workers and firms are playing a static game, so there is no savings decision to worry about, and seek answers to this question: how much do we gain or lose by assuming that workers are risk neutral rather than risk averse. We allow firms to post general contracts advertising the number of workers they would pay as well as the (same) payment all will receive, and we examine two cases in our paper: one where workers are risk neutral, and one where workers are risk averse, both when the economies are finite and large. Our paper shows that whether workers are modelled as risk neutral or risk averse matters a lot: the types of symmetric equilibria and the nature of the multiplicity of equilibria are different. Somewhat surprisingly, when there are finite numbers of workers and firms, we obtain a finite number of symmetric equilibria when workers are risk neutral, but a continuum of equilibria when workers are risk averse. Furthermore, our paper sounds a cautionary note on using large economies as an approximation of finite economies: when workers are risk neutral the nature of equilibrium is preserved going from a finite to a large economy, but the nature of equilibrium going from a finite to a large economy is completely different when workers are risk averse.

日時
November 20, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
楡井誠 (Makoto Nirei) （Hitotsubashi University）
Pareto Distribution of Income in Neoclassical Growth Models (joint with Shuhei Aoki) [PDF]

Abstract
This paper constructs a Bewley model, a dynamic general equilibrium model of heterogeneous households with production, which accounts for the Pareto distributions of income and wealth. We emphasize the role played by concavity of the consumption function in generating the Pareto distribution. We show that the Pareto distribution is obtained when households face idiosyncratic investment shocks on household assets and are subject to the borrowing constraint, which leads to concavity of the consumption function. The model can quantitatively account for the observed income distribution in the U.S. under reasonable calibration. In this model, labor income shocks account for the low and middle parts of the distribution, while investment shocks mainly affect the upper tail.

日時	November 20, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	楡井誠 (Makoto Nirei) （Hitotsubashi University） Pareto Distribution of Income in Neoclassical Growth Models (joint with Shuhei Aoki) [PDF]
Abstract	This paper constructs a Bewley model, a dynamic general equilibrium model of heterogeneous households with production, which accounts for the Pareto distributions of income and wealth. We emphasize the role played by concavity of the consumption function in generating the Pareto distribution. We show that the Pareto distribution is obtained when households face idiosyncratic investment shocks on household assets and are subject to the borrowing constraint, which leads to concavity of the consumption function. The model can quantitatively account for the observed income distribution in the U.S. under reasonable calibration. In this model, labor income shocks account for the low and middle parts of the distribution, while investment shocks mainly affect the upper tail.

日時
November 26, 2014 （水　Wednesday）10:30-12:00 ※日時と会場に注意

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）２階第３セミナー室
in Seminar Room 3 on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
Rudolfs Bems（IMF/Bank of Latvia/Stockholm School of Economics in Riga）
Income-Induced Expenditure Switching [PDF]

Abstract
This paper shows that an income effect can drive expenditure switching between domestic and imported goods. We use a unique Latvian scanner-level dataset, covering the 2008-09 crisis, to document several empirical findings. First, expenditure switching accounted for one-third of the fall in imports, and took place within narrowly-defined product groups. Second, there was no corresponding within-group change in relative prices. Third, consumers substituted from expensive imports to cheaper domestic alternatives. These findings motivate us to estimate a model of non-homothetic consumer demand, which explains 80% of the observed expenditure switching. Estimated switching is driven by income, not relative prices.

日時	November 26, 2014 （水　Wednesday）10:30-12:00 ※日時と会場に注意
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）２階第３セミナー室 in Seminar Room 3 on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	Rudolfs Bems（IMF/Bank of Latvia/Stockholm School of Economics in Riga） Income-Induced Expenditure Switching [PDF]
Abstract	This paper shows that an income effect can drive expenditure switching between domestic and imported goods. We use a unique Latvian scanner-level dataset, covering the 2008-09 crisis, to document several empirical findings. First, expenditure switching accounted for one-third of the fall in imports, and took place within narrowly-defined product groups. Second, there was no corresponding within-group change in relative prices. Third, consumers substituted from expensive imports to cheaper domestic alternatives. These findings motivate us to estimate a model of non-homothetic consumer demand, which explains 80% of the observed expenditure switching. Estimated switching is driven by income, not relative prices.

日時
November 27, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
二神孝一 (Kouichi Futagami) （Osaka University）

Welfare and Tax Policies in a Simple Neoclassical Growth Model with Non Unitary Discounting [PDF] [Figures]

Abstract
When an individual uses different discount rates for different sources of utilities, we call it non unitary discounting. We show that a decision making of the individual becomes time inconsistent. We examine a simple neoclassical growth model with endogenous labor supply in which an individual discounts the utility of consumption and utility of leisure differently. We derive competitive equilibria in which individuals behave in a time consistent way. We investigate welfare performances of the economy by comparing the allocation of competitive equilibria and that by a central planner. The planner cannot commit its initial decisions like the individual. Thus, the planner must solve the allocation problem in a time consistent way. The welfare performance of the allocation by the central planner dominates that of the competitive equilibria from an initial point of view; however, the opposite result obtains from a future point of view. We finally examine whether a government can reconcile this welfare conflict by using tax policies.

日時	November 27, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	二神孝一 (Kouichi Futagami) （Osaka University） Welfare and Tax Policies in a Simple Neoclassical Growth Model with Non Unitary Discounting [PDF] [Figures]
Abstract	When an individual uses different discount rates for different sources of utilities, we call it non unitary discounting. We show that a decision making of the individual becomes time inconsistent. We examine a simple neoclassical growth model with endogenous labor supply in which an individual discounts the utility of consumption and utility of leisure differently. We derive competitive equilibria in which individuals behave in a time consistent way. We investigate welfare performances of the economy by comparing the allocation of competitive equilibria and that by a central planner. The planner cannot commit its initial decisions like the individual. Thus, the planner must solve the allocation problem in a time consistent way. The welfare performance of the allocation by the central planner dominates that of the competitive equilibria from an initial point of view; however, the opposite result obtains from a future point of view. We finally examine whether a government can reconcile this welfare conflict by using tax policies.

日時
Decmber 4, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
片山宗親 (Munechika Katayama) （Kyoto University）

Rising Skill Premium?: The Roles of Capital-Skill Complementarity and Sectoral Shifts in a Two-Sector Economy [paper]

Abstract
Empirical studies report a marked dispersion in skill-premium changes across economies over the past few decades. Structural models in early studies successfully replicate the increases in skill premiums in many economies, while some other cases with a decline in the skill premium are yet to be explained. To this end, we develop a two-sector (i.e., manufacturing and non-manufacturing) general equilibrium model with skilled and unskilled labor, in which degrees of capital-skill complementarity differ across sectors. Based on the estimated structural parameters, we show that a decline in capital-skill complementarity in the non-manufacturing sector can provide a consistent explanation for the following aspects of the Japanese data at both the aggregate and industry levels: (i) a decline in the skill premium, (ii) widening of the sectoral wage gap due to a rise in manufacturing wages and decline in non-manufacturing wages, and (iii) an increase in the unskilled labor share in the non-manufacturing sector. We interpret that this change reflects compositional effects and uneven technology adoption of firms within non-manufacturing.

日時	Decmber 4, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	片山宗親 (Munechika Katayama) （Kyoto University） Rising Skill Premium?: The Roles of Capital-Skill Complementarity and Sectoral Shifts in a Two-Sector Economy [paper]
Abstract	Empirical studies report a marked dispersion in skill-premium changes across economies over the past few decades. Structural models in early studies successfully replicate the increases in skill premiums in many economies, while some other cases with a decline in the skill premium are yet to be explained. To this end, we develop a two-sector (i.e., manufacturing and non-manufacturing) general equilibrium model with skilled and unskilled labor, in which degrees of capital-skill complementarity differ across sectors. Based on the estimated structural parameters, we show that a decline in capital-skill complementarity in the non-manufacturing sector can provide a consistent explanation for the following aspects of the Japanese data at both the aggregate and industry levels: (i) a decline in the skill premium, (ii) widening of the sectoral wage gap due to a rise in manufacturing wages and decline in non-manufacturing wages, and (iii) an increase in the unskilled labor share in the non-manufacturing sector. We interpret that this change reflects compositional effects and uneven technology adoption of firms within non-manufacturing.

日時
Decmber 8, 2014 （月　Monday）10:30-12:10　※日時と会場に注意

場所
東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）２階第３セミナー室
in Seminar Room 3on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
藤木裕 (Hiroshi Fujiki) （Chuo University）

Default Risks and Collateral in the Absence of Commitment in a Two-country Model

Abstract
Mills and Reed (2012) study both the incentive role and the insurance role of collateral in an optimal contract model that looks like a repurchase agreement contract. They show that the consumption of the lender will be the same whether the borrower is a productive agent or an unproductive agent. We extend their model by considering two kinds of shocks to the second period of lenders’ lives. First, suppose that some lenders are hit by a taste shock to consume foreign goods that must be purchased with foreign fiat money, and they might obtain different amounts of foreign fiat money depending on the timing of their foreign exchange transactions. Second, suppose that some lenders are hit by a taste shock that forces them to consume within an early stage of the second period of their lives, and the amount of goods available within that stage is not enough to meet the demand for goods from those lenders. These two shocks make the consumption of lenders vary depending on the timing of transactions in the foreign exchange or goods market respectively, even though the lenders are insured from their borrowers’ default and have the same money balances as the other lenders at the end of the first period of their lives.

日時	Decmber 8, 2014 （月　Monday）10:30-12:10　※日時と会場に注意
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）２階第３セミナー室 in Seminar Room 3on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	藤木裕 (Hiroshi Fujiki) （Chuo University） Default Risks and Collateral in the Absence of Commitment in a Two-country Model
Abstract	Mills and Reed (2012) study both the incentive role and the insurance role of collateral in an optimal contract model that looks like a repurchase agreement contract. They show that the consumption of the lender will be the same whether the borrower is a productive agent or an unproductive agent. We extend their model by considering two kinds of shocks to the second period of lenders’ lives. First, suppose that some lenders are hit by a taste shock to consume foreign goods that must be purchased with foreign fiat money, and they might obtain different amounts of foreign fiat money depending on the timing of their foreign exchange transactions. Second, suppose that some lenders are hit by a taste shock that forces them to consume within an early stage of the second period of their lives, and the amount of goods available within that stage is not enough to meet the demand for goods from those lenders. These two shocks make the consumption of lenders vary depending on the timing of transactions in the foreign exchange or goods market respectively, even though the lenders are insured from their borrowers’ default and have the same money balances as the other lenders at the end of the first period of their lives.

日時
Decmber 11, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
仲田泰祐　(Taisuke Nakata) (Federal Reserve Board)

Reputation and Liquidity Traps

Abstract
Can the central bank credibly commit to keeping the nominal interest rate low for an extended period of time in the aftermath of a deep recession? By analyzing credible plans in a sticky-price economy with occasionally binding zero lower bound constraints, I nd that the answer is yes if contractionary shocks hit the economy with sucient frequency. In the best credible plan, if the central bank reneges on the promise of low policy rates, it will lose reputation and the private sector will not believe such promises in future recessions. When the shock hits the economy su- ciently frequently, the incentive to maintain reputation outweighs the short-run incentive to close consumption and in ation gaps, keeping the central bank on the originally announced path of low nominal interest rates.

日時	Decmber 11, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	仲田泰祐　(Taisuke Nakata) (Federal Reserve Board) Reputation and Liquidity Traps
Abstract	Can the central bank credibly commit to keeping the nominal interest rate low for an extended period of time in the aftermath of a deep recession? By analyzing credible plans in a sticky-price economy with occasionally binding zero lower bound constraints, I nd that the answer is yes if contractionary shocks hit the economy with sucient frequency. In the best credible plan, if the central bank reneges on the promise of low policy rates, it will lose reputation and the private sector will not believe such promises in future recessions. When the shock hits the economy su- ciently frequently, the incentive to maintain reputation outweighs the short-run incentive to close consumption and in ation gaps, keeping the central bank on the originally announced path of low nominal interest rates.

日時
Decmber 18, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20

※CARF　『バブル、金融危機と政策対応研究会』」との共催

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
Pengfei Wang (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

Housing Bubbles and Policy Analysis (joint with Jianjun Miao and Jing Zhou)

Abstract
This paper provides a theory of credit-driven housing bubbles in an infinite-horizon production economy. Entrepreneurs face idiosyncratic investment tax distortions and credit constraints. Housing is an illiquid asset and also serves as collateral for borrowing. A housing bubble can form because houses command a liquidity premium. The housing bubble can provide liquidity and relax credit constraints, but can also generate inefficient overinvestment. Its net effect is to reduce welfare. Property taxes, Tobin’s taxes, macroprudential policy, and credit policy can prevent the formation of a housing bubble.

日時	Decmber 18, 2014 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20 ※CARF　『バブル、金融危機と政策対応研究会』」との共催
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	Pengfei Wang (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology) Housing Bubbles and Policy Analysis (joint with Jianjun Miao and Jing Zhou)
Abstract	This paper provides a theory of credit-driven housing bubbles in an infinite-horizon production economy. Entrepreneurs face idiosyncratic investment tax distortions and credit constraints. Housing is an illiquid asset and also serves as collateral for borrowing. A housing bubble can form because houses command a liquidity premium. The housing bubble can provide liquidity and relax credit constraints, but can also generate inefficient overinvestment. Its net effect is to reduce welfare. Property taxes, Tobin’s taxes, macroprudential policy, and credit policy can prevent the formation of a housing bubble.

日時
January 7, 2015 （水 Wednesday）16:40-18:20 　※曜日と会場に注意

場所
東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）2階小島コンファレンスルーム
in Kojima Conference Room on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
松山公紀 (Kiminori Matsuyama) (Northwestern University)

Globalization and Synchronization of Innovation Cycles (joint with Iryna Sushko and Laura Gardini) [PDF]

Abstract We propose and analyze a two-country model of endogenous innovation cycles. In autarky, innovation fluctuations in the two countries are decoupled. As the trade costs fall and intra-industry trade rises, they become synchronized. This is because globalization leads to the alignment of innovation incentives across firms based in different countries, as they operate in the increasingly global (hence common) market environment. Furthermore, synchronization occurs faster (i.e., with a smaller reduction in trade costs) when the country sizes are more unequal, and it is the larger country that dictates the tempo of global innovation cycles with the smaller country adjusting its rhythm to the rhythm of the larger country. These results suggest that adding endogenous sources of productivity fluctuations might help improve our understanding of why countries that trade more with each other have more synchronized business cycles.

日時	January 7, 2015 （水 Wednesday）16:40-18:20 　※曜日と会場に注意
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）2階小島コンファレンスルーム in Kojima Conference Room on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	松山公紀 (Kiminori Matsuyama) (Northwestern University) Globalization and Synchronization of Innovation Cycles (joint with Iryna Sushko and Laura Gardini) [PDF]
Abstract	We propose and analyze a two-country model of endogenous innovation cycles. In autarky, innovation fluctuations in the two countries are decoupled. As the trade costs fall and intra-industry trade rises, they become synchronized. This is because globalization leads to the alignment of innovation incentives across firms based in different countries, as they operate in the increasingly global (hence common) market environment. Furthermore, synchronization occurs faster (i.e., with a smaller reduction in trade costs) when the country sizes are more unequal, and it is the larger country that dictates the tempo of global innovation cycles with the smaller country adjusting its rhythm to the rhythm of the larger country. These results suggest that adding endogenous sources of productivity fluctuations might help improve our understanding of why countries that trade more with each other have more synchronized business cycles.

日時
January 21, 2015 （水 Wednesday）12:00-13:00 ※日時に注意

※CARF　『バブル、金融危機と政策対応研究会』」、マクロファイナンス・金融&国際金融ワークショップとの共催

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
Martin M. Guzman (Columbia University)

Pseudo-wealth Fluctuations and Aggregate Demand Effects (joint with Joseph E. Stiglitz)

*Title Changed

Abstract This paper presents a theory of pseudo-wealth in a model that displays aggregate demand externalities. With heterogeneous beliefs and a market for exploiting those differences in beliefs, pseudo-wealth will be created--i.e. the sum of expected wealth of all the individuals will be larger than what it is feasible for the society. Under some conditions, those perceptions will lead to larger levels of consumption of (tradable and non-tradable) goods, leisure, and borrowing than in a world with common beliefs. If those differences in beliefs disappear, pseudo-wealth will disappear, leading to adjustments in behavior that amplify the initial decrease in expected wealth. That is, we provide a simple general equilibrium model in which the destruction of pseudo-wealth amplifies the effects of the initial disturbance, leading to large decreases in economic activity. Importantly, this downturn is not associated with any change in the state variables that describe the economy. More generally, the paper shows that completing markets (in this case by creating the market for bets) may imply lower output both in the present and in the future, raising unsettling questions on criteria for welfare analysis.

日時	January 21, 2015 （水 Wednesday）12:00-13:00 ※日時に注意 ※CARF　『バブル、金融危機と政策対応研究会』」、マクロファイナンス・金融&国際金融ワークショップとの共催
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	Martin M. Guzman (Columbia University) Pseudo-wealth Fluctuations and Aggregate Demand Effects (joint with Joseph E. Stiglitz) *Title Changed
Abstract	This paper presents a theory of pseudo-wealth in a model that displays aggregate demand externalities. With heterogeneous beliefs and a market for exploiting those differences in beliefs, pseudo-wealth will be created--i.e. the sum of expected wealth of all the individuals will be larger than what it is feasible for the society. Under some conditions, those perceptions will lead to larger levels of consumption of (tradable and non-tradable) goods, leisure, and borrowing than in a world with common beliefs. If those differences in beliefs disappear, pseudo-wealth will disappear, leading to adjustments in behavior that amplify the initial decrease in expected wealth. That is, we provide a simple general equilibrium model in which the destruction of pseudo-wealth amplifies the effects of the initial disturbance, leading to large decreases in economic activity. Importantly, this downturn is not associated with any change in the state variables that describe the economy. More generally, the paper shows that completing markets (in this case by creating the market for bets) may imply lower output both in the present and in the future, raising unsettling questions on criteria for welfare analysis.

日時
February 5, 2015 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
Kyungmin Kim (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

A Price-Differentiation Model of the Interbank Market and Its Empirical Application [PDF]

Abstract
We build a model of short-term interbank loans. The variation across different banks in their cost from handling an excess or a deficit of liquidity (`liquidity cost') drives the variation in interest rates. We characterize the shape of the interest rate curve as a function of loan size and find that a small bank that trades with a large bank tends to get better interest rates for larger loans. The model is consistent with the following observations on the Mexican interbank market, obtained from a unique dataset of interbank loan transactions: (i) the variation in the interest rates on the loans between two large banks is small; (ii) small banks lending to (borrowing from) large banks receive lower (pay higher) interest rates than large banks lending to (borrowing from) other large banks; and (iii) a small bank trading with a large bank gets more favorable interest rates for larger loans. Finally, as an application of the model, we discuss how banking environment changes during a financial crisis. In particular, we estimate the shape of the liquidity cost function and use that information to measure the shift in the liquidity cost that banks faced during the 2008 financial crisis. We find that the increased disadvantage that small banks experienced in the interbank market during the crisis can largely be explained by a shift in the liquidity cost, rather than by changes in loan supply and demand.

日時	February 5, 2015 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	Kyungmin Kim (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) A Price-Differentiation Model of the Interbank Market and Its Empirical Application [PDF]
Abstract	We build a model of short-term interbank loans. The variation across different banks in their cost from handling an excess or a deficit of liquidity (`liquidity cost') drives the variation in interest rates. We characterize the shape of the interest rate curve as a function of loan size and find that a small bank that trades with a large bank tends to get better interest rates for larger loans. The model is consistent with the following observations on the Mexican interbank market, obtained from a unique dataset of interbank loan transactions: (i) the variation in the interest rates on the loans between two large banks is small; (ii) small banks lending to (borrowing from) large banks receive lower (pay higher) interest rates than large banks lending to (borrowing from) other large banks; and (iii) a small bank trading with a large bank gets more favorable interest rates for larger loans. Finally, as an application of the model, we discuss how banking environment changes during a financial crisis. In particular, we estimate the shape of the liquidity cost function and use that information to measure the shift in the liquidity cost that banks faced during the 2008 financial crisis. We find that the increased disadvantage that small banks experienced in the interbank market during the crisis can largely be explained by a shift in the liquidity cost, rather than by changes in loan supply and demand.

日時
February 12, 2015 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
Charles Leung (City University of Hong Kong)

Flippers in Housing Market Search (joint with Chung-Yi Tse) [PDF]

Abstract
We add arbitraging middlemen—investors who attempt to profit from buying low and selling high—to a canonical housing market search model. Not surprisingly, in a sluggish market in which it is difficult to sell, the opportunities offered to mismatched homeowners to quickly dispose of their old houses by these middlemen are particularly welcome. Less obvious is that the same opportunities are similarly welcome in a tight market in which houses can be sold quickly even without the aid of these intermediaries. To follow is the possibility of multiple equilibria. In one equilibrium, most, if not all, transactions are intermediated, resulting in rapid turnover, a high vacancy rate, and high housing prices. In another equilibrium, few hous

es are bought and sold by middlemen. Turnover is slow, few houses are vacant, and prices are moderate. The housing market can then be intrinsically unstable even when all flippers are of the liquidity-providing variety in classical finance theory.

日時	February 12, 2015 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	Charles Leung (City University of Hong Kong) Flippers in Housing Market Search (joint with Chung-Yi Tse) [PDF]
Abstract	We add arbitraging middlemen—investors who attempt to profit from buying low and selling high—to a canonical housing market search model. Not surprisingly, in a sluggish market in which it is difficult to sell, the opportunities offered to mismatched homeowners to quickly dispose of their old houses by these middlemen are particularly welcome. Less obvious is that the same opportunities are similarly welcome in a tight market in which houses can be sold quickly even without the aid of these intermediaries. To follow is the possibility of multiple equilibria. In one equilibrium, most, if not all, transactions are intermediated, resulting in rapid turnover, a high vacancy rate, and high housing prices. In another equilibrium, few hous es are bought and sold by middlemen. Turnover is slow, few houses are vacant, and prices are moderate. The housing market can then be intrinsically unstable even when all flippers are of the liquidity-providing variety in classical finance theory.

日時
February 19, 2015 （木　Thursday）　1) 10:30-12:10, 2) 14:50-16:30, 3) 16:40-18:20

※時間に注意、CIRJE特別セミナーと共催

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
In-Koo Cho (University of Illinois)

Deconstructing US Inflation

Related Papers: [PDF1] [PDF2]
1) 10:30-12:10, Part I: Introduction
2) 14:50-16:30, Part 2: Conquest
3) 16:40-18:20, Part 3: Multiple Models and Validation

Abstract
One of the enduring ironies of economic research is that while economists struggle to devise models that can explain events like global nancial crises, their models typically assume that agents within the model have somehow already gured it all out. This tension between the knowledge of econo- mists and the presumed knowledge of agents within economic models was recently highlighted by Hansen in his Nobel address: Why is it fruitful to consider model misspecication? ... Part of a meaningful quantitative analysis is to look at models and try to gure out their deciencies and the ways in which they can be improved. A more subtle challenge for statistical methods is to explore systematically potential modeling errors in order to assess the quality of the model predictions. This kind of uncertainty about the adequacy of a model or model family is not only relevant for econometricians outside the model, but potentially also for agents inside the models. We follow up on Hansen's conjecture by developing models in which agents and economists are on a more equal footing, in the sense that agents within the model confront the same doubts and ambiguity about their environment that confront outside econometricians. First, the monetary policy maker (i.e., Federal Reserve) is assumed to entertain multiple candidate models. Second, Fed recursively selects among these models based on real-time specication testing. If the agent's current model fails the test, he experiments by selecting a new model. If agents suer from the same fears of model misspecication that aict outside econometricians, then models will be subject to scrutiny, and misspecication will be detected with positive probability. This may lead agents to try dierent models. We call the resulting dynamics the validation dynamics. The validation dynamics capture and explain key features of US in ation dynamics past 50 years. Allowing the Central Bank to consider multiple models makes a big dierence to the predicted in ation dynamics. Rather than repeatedly succumbing to the temptation to exploit an apparent Phillips Curve trade-o, a Central Banker that tests his model eventually learns not to exploit the Phillips Curve, despite the fact that the short term Phillips curve is alive and well. 1

日時	February 19, 2015 （木　Thursday）　1) 10:30-12:10, 2) 14:50-16:30, 3) 16:40-18:20 ※時間に注意、CIRJE特別セミナーと共催
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	In-Koo Cho (University of Illinois) Deconstructing US Inflation Related Papers: [PDF1] [PDF2] 1) 10:30-12:10, Part I: Introduction 2) 14:50-16:30, Part 2: Conquest 3) 16:40-18:20, Part 3: Multiple Models and Validation
Abstract	One of the enduring ironies of economic research is that while economists struggle to devise models that can explain events like global nancial crises, their models typically assume that agents within the model have somehow already gured it all out. This tension between the knowledge of econo- mists and the presumed knowledge of agents within economic models was recently highlighted by Hansen in his Nobel address: Why is it fruitful to consider model misspecication? ... Part of a meaningful quantitative analysis is to look at models and try to gure out their deciencies and the ways in which they can be improved. A more subtle challenge for statistical methods is to explore systematically potential modeling errors in order to assess the quality of the model predictions. This kind of uncertainty about the adequacy of a model or model family is not only relevant for econometricians outside the model, but potentially also for agents inside the models. We follow up on Hansen's conjecture by developing models in which agents and economists are on a more equal footing, in the sense that agents within the model confront the same doubts and ambiguity about their environment that confront outside econometricians. First, the monetary policy maker (i.e., Federal Reserve) is assumed to entertain multiple candidate models. Second, Fed recursively selects among these models based on real-time specication testing. If the agent's current model fails the test, he experiments by selecting a new model. If agents suer from the same fears of model misspecication that aict outside econometricians, then models will be subject to scrutiny, and misspecication will be detected with positive probability. This may lead agents to try dierent models. We call the resulting dynamics the validation dynamics. The validation dynamics capture and explain key features of US in ation dynamics past 50 years. Allowing the Central Bank to consider multiple models makes a big dierence to the predicted in ation dynamics. Rather than repeatedly succumbing to the temptation to exploit an apparent Phillips Curve trade-o, a Central Banker that tests his model eventually learns not to exploit the Phillips Curve, despite the fact that the short term Phillips curve is alive and well. 1

日時
February 24, 2015 （火　Tuesday）16:40-18:20 ※曜日に注意

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
Konstantin Kucheryavyy (The Pennsylvania State University)

Comparative Advantage and International Risk Sharing: Together at Last [paper]

Abstract
The overwhelming consensus in the theoretical literature is that access to international risk sharing in the presence of uninsured total factor productivity (TFP) shocks induces a country to specialize more in its comparative advantage industries. This paper demonstrates that the effect of financial integration on production patterns depends on preferences and on the structure of the variance-covariance matrix of TFP shocks present in the economy. Using a variant of the standard 2x2 Ricardian model with TFP shocks by Helpman and Razin (1978), I show that if TFP shocks affect each industry in all countries the same way, the standard assumption, then financial integration indeed leads to a more specialized production structure. However, if shocks are not correlated across countries and affect all industries in a country the same way, then the effect of financial integration is ambiguous. I also show that in the absence of international risk sharing the Helpman-Razin model generally has (discrete) multiple equilibria - an overlooked phenomenon. I build a framework with a continuum of goods in the spi

rit of Eaton-Kortum and show how the multiple equilibria can be numerically bounded. Using this framework I explore the welfare effects of financial integration through its impact on the production structure. This paper can be seen as a first attempt to bring together the discussion of international risk sharing and trade in the context of quantitative trade models of comparative advantage.

日時	February 24, 2015 （火　Tuesday）16:40-18:20 ※曜日に注意
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	Konstantin Kucheryavyy (The Pennsylvania State University) Comparative Advantage and International Risk Sharing: Together at Last [paper]
Abstract	The overwhelming consensus in the theoretical literature is that access to international risk sharing in the presence of uninsured total factor productivity (TFP) shocks induces a country to specialize more in its comparative advantage industries. This paper demonstrates that the effect of financial integration on production patterns depends on preferences and on the structure of the variance-covariance matrix of TFP shocks present in the economy. Using a variant of the standard 2x2 Ricardian model with TFP shocks by Helpman and Razin (1978), I show that if TFP shocks affect each industry in all countries the same way, the standard assumption, then financial integration indeed leads to a more specialized production structure. However, if shocks are not correlated across countries and affect all industries in a country the same way, then the effect of financial integration is ambiguous. I also show that in the absence of international risk sharing the Helpman-Razin model generally has (discrete) multiple equilibria - an overlooked phenomenon. I build a framework with a continuum of goods in the spi rit of Eaton-Kortum and show how the multiple equilibria can be numerically bounded. Using this framework I explore the welfare effects of financial integration through its impact on the production structure. This paper can be seen as a first attempt to bring together the discussion of international risk sharing and trade in the context of quantitative trade models of comparative advantage.

日時
March 12, 2015 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
Martin Gervais (University of Iowa)

What Should I Be When I Grow Up? Occupations and Unemployment over the Life Cycle (joint with Nir Jaimovich, Henry Siu, and Yaniv Yedid-Levi) [PDF]

Abstract
Why is unemployment higher for younger individuals? We address this question in a frictional model of the labor market that features learning about occupational fit. In order to learn the occupation in which they are most productive, workers sample occupations over their careers. Because young workers are more likely to be in matches that represent a poor occupational fit, they spend more time in transition between occupations. Through this mechanism, our model can replicate the observed age differences in unemployment which, as in the data, are due to differences in job separation rates.

日時	March 12, 2015 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	Martin Gervais (University of Iowa) What Should I Be When I Grow Up? Occupations and Unemployment over the Life Cycle (joint with Nir Jaimovich, Henry Siu, and Yaniv Yedid-Levi) [PDF]
Abstract	Why is unemployment higher for younger individuals? We address this question in a frictional model of the labor market that features learning about occupational fit. In order to learn the occupation in which they are most productive, workers sample occupations over their careers. Because young workers are more likely to be in matches that represent a poor occupational fit, they spend more time in transition between occupations. Through this mechanism, our model can replicate the observed age differences in unemployment which, as in the data, are due to differences in job separation rates.

日時
March 17, 2015 （火　Tuesday）16:40-18:20 ※曜日に注意

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
Irena Vodenska (Boston University)

Interdependencies and causalities in coupled financial networks (joint with Hideaki Aoyama, Yoshi Fujiwara, Hiroshi Iyetomi, Yuta Arai, and H. Eugene Stanley)[PDF]

Abstract
We explore foreign exchange and stock market networks in 48 countries from 1999 until 2012 and propose a model, based on complex principal component analysis, for extracting significant lead-lag relations between these networks, by constructing currency-equity synchronization network. In addition to the analysis for the whole period, we divide the total time period into "mild crisis," (1999-2002), "calm," (2003-2006) and "severe crisis" (2007-2012) periods and find that the severe crisis period behavior dominates the dynamics in the foreign exchange-equity interdependent network. We observe that in general the foreign exchange market has predictive power for the global stock market performance. Also, the United States, German and Canadian markets have forecasting power for the performances of other global equity markets.

日時	March 17, 2015 （火　Tuesday）16:40-18:20 ※曜日に注意
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	Irena Vodenska (Boston University) Interdependencies and causalities in coupled financial networks (joint with Hideaki Aoyama, Yoshi Fujiwara, Hiroshi Iyetomi, Yuta Arai, and H. Eugene Stanley)[PDF]
Abstract	We explore foreign exchange and stock market networks in 48 countries from 1999 until 2012 and propose a model, based on complex principal component analysis, for extracting significant lead-lag relations between these networks, by constructing currency-equity synchronization network. In addition to the analysis for the whole period, we divide the total time period into "mild crisis," (1999-2002), "calm," (2003-2006) and "severe crisis" (2007-2012) periods and find that the severe crisis period behavior dominates the dynamics in the foreign exchange-equity interdependent network. We observe that in general the foreign exchange market has predictive power for the global stock market performance. Also, the United States, German and Canadian markets have forecasting power for the performances of other global equity markets.

日時
March 19, 2015 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
敦賀貴之　（Takayuki Tsuruga) (Kyoto University)

Noisy information, distance and law of one price dynamics across US cities (joint with Mario J. Cruciniy and Mototsugu Shintani) [PDF]

Abstract
Using US micro price data at the city level, we provide evidence that both the volatility and the persistence of law of one price deviations are rising in the distance between US cities. A standard two-city equilibrium model with trade costs can predict the relationship between volatility and distance but not between persistence and distance. To explain the latter fact, we rely on imperfect information model with noisy signals, about the state of nominal aggregate demand, that are asymmetric across cities. We further show that our main results are robust to the introduction of sticky prices and multiple cities.

日時	March 19, 2015 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	敦賀貴之　（Takayuki Tsuruga) (Kyoto University) Noisy information, distance and law of one price dynamics across US cities (joint with Mario J. Cruciniy and Mototsugu Shintani) [PDF]
Abstract	Using US micro price data at the city level, we provide evidence that both the volatility and the persistence of law of one price deviations are rising in the distance between US cities. A standard two-city equilibrium model with trade costs can predict the relationship between volatility and distance but not between persistence and distance. To explain the latter fact, we rely on imperfect information model with noisy signals, about the state of nominal aggregate demand, that are asymmetric across cities. We further show that our main results are robust to the introduction of sticky prices and multiple cities.

日時
March 26, 2015 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
敦賀智裕 (Tomohiro Tsuruga) (Bank of Japan)

Analysis of Great Moderation based on Quantile Regression Approach (joint with Nao Sudo) [PDF]

Abstract
In this paper, we study causes and nature of Great Moderation (GM) using the quantile regression approach combined with a structural break test. We estimate timing and size of structural breaks in each quantile of distribution of GDP growth rate in selected 24 OECD countries from the 1960s to 2014. We find that almost half of the sample countries have experienced GM, and that GM still continues even after the current financial crisis in these countries. We also find that GM has typically come together with contractionary changes in distribution of GDP growth rate. The moderation were typically accompanied by a fall in median and/or disproportionately large decline in upper quantile of GDP growth rate. We show that developments of GM are closely linked to how inflation rate during the 1970s has been controlled and discuss that effective monetary policy can be an explanation for changes in developments of both GDP growth and inflation rate.

日時	March 26, 2015 （木　Thursday）16:40-18:20
場所	東京大学大学院経済学研究科学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室 in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告	敦賀智裕 (Tomohiro Tsuruga) (Bank of Japan) Analysis of Great Moderation based on Quantile Regression Approach (joint with Nao Sudo) [PDF]
Abstract	In this paper, we study causes and nature of Great Moderation (GM) using the quantile regression approach combined with a structural break test. We estimate timing and size of structural breaks in each quantile of distribution of GDP growth rate in selected 24 OECD countries from the 1960s to 2014. We find that almost half of the sample countries have experienced GM, and that GM still continues even after the current financial crisis in these countries. We also find that GM has typically come together with contractionary changes in distribution of GDP growth rate. The moderation were typically accompanied by a fall in median and/or disproportionately large decline in upper quantile of GDP growth rate. We show that developments of GM are closely linked to how inflation rate during the 1970s has been controlled and discuss that effective monetary policy can be an explanation for changes in developments of both GDP growth and inflation rate.

日時 ※ 2015年1月　修士論文報告会 Master's Thesis Presentations ※
１．下記の予定は変更の可能性もありますのでご注意下さい

（Please note that the following schedule might be changed)。

２．発表は基本的に日本語で行われますが、希望により英語の発表も可能です。

（Presentations are basically in Japanese. You can choose English if you wish.)。

発表者の方へ
発表論文についてはCIRJEにて印刷し、当日会場にて配布いたします。つきましては、下記の期日までに最終稿のファイルまたはハードコピーをご提出ください。

発表論文提出期限（厳守）：

1月 8日（木）発表者＝1月 8日（木）朝9:00（必着）まで

1月15日（木）発表者＝1月15日（木）朝9:00（必着）まで

1月22日（木）発表者＝1月22日（木）朝9:00（必着）まで

1月 29日（木）発表者＝ 1月 29日（木）朝9:00（必着）まで

提出先：学術交流棟（小島ホール）６階 CIRJE（cirje [at mark]e.u-tokyo.ac.jp）

上記提出期限の日時を過ぎたものについてはいかなる理由があっても受け付けられません。ご自身で15部のコピーをご用意の上、当日会場にご持参ください。

論文は必ず最終稿をご提出ください。提出後の差し替えは受け付けませんので、差し替えなければならない事態が発生した場合には、論文はご自身で印刷して（15部）当日持参して頂くことになります。

添付ファイルが破損している等、ファイルが開けない場合は連絡を差し上げるため、ファイルで提出される方はお申し込み時に携帯電話番号等、当日すぐに連絡のつく連絡先をお書き添え下さい。

別途、正式な修士論文口述試験が行なわれるので、修士論文提出時に大学院係から配付される審査日程を参照のうえ、必ずご出席下さい。

パソコン・ポインターはセミナー室ロッカー内の機器をご使用のうえ、設置・片づけは最初と最後の発表者が各自で行って下さい。（プロジェクターは会場に備え付けられています。）

Your thesis paper is distributed at the seminar venue. Please send an electronic file of it to CIRJE at cirje [at mark] e.u-tokyo.ac.jp, so that CIRJE can duplicate it. You can also bring its hardcopy directly to the CIRJE office on the 6th floor of Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall).

The submission deadline is (please be punctual):

January 8 (Thursday)… by 9:00am, January 8 (Thursday)
January 15 (Thursday)…by 9:00am, January 15 (Thursday)

January 22 (Thursday)…by 9:00am, January 22 (Thursday)

February 29 (Thursday)…by 9:00am, February 29 (Thursday)

Make sure that

Submission behind the deadline is not accepted for any reason.

The file/hardcopy submitted to CIRJE should be the final version.

You need to send your emergency contact information such as cell phone number together with your thesis file, so that CIRJE can immediately reach you in case the file cannot be opened/is broken.

Those who missed the deadline or those who would like to revise the thesis paper after the submission, are required to make 15 hardcopies of it and bring them to the seminar venue on the presentation day.

You MUST attend an official oral examination in addition to this master thesis presentation: for details, please see the schedule to be distributed by the Graduate Office when you submit your thesis.

Presenters can use equipment such as a computer and a pointer in a locker in the seminar venue on the presentation day: make sure they should be back into place after use.

日時
2015年1月8日（木　Thursday）16:40-17:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
福井真夫 （Readers：青木戸村（平野））

Asset Quality Cycles

日時
2015年1月8日（木　Thursday）17:20-18:00

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
加藤明久（Readers：青木戸村（平野））

The analysis of exiting from quantitative easing policy

日時
2015年1月8日（木　Thursday）18:00-18:40

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
青柳　潤（Readers：青木戸村（平野））

Asset Price Bubbles and Stable Inflations

日時
2015年1月15日（木　Thursday）16:40-17:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
石出　旭 （Readers：青木戸村（平野））

Asymmetric Effects of Banking Crisis Across Firms

日時
2015年1月15日（木　Thursday）17:20-18:00

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
寺本和弘（Readers：青木戸村（平野））

Monetary Easing in the U.S. and Sudden Stops in Emerging Countries

日時
2015年1月22日（木　Thursday）16:40-17:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
コウ　シン （Readers：渡辺青木（吉川））

動学的効率性から見る中国経済成長の不均衡

日時
2015年1月22日（木　Thursday）17:20-18:00

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
安達　光 （Readers：渡辺青木（吉川））

ユーロ圏金融機関におけるホームバイアスの非対称性

日時
2015年1月22日（木　Thursday）18:00-18:40

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
坂部翔悟 （Readers：渡辺青木（吉川））

Regulation and Systemic Risk in Financial Networks

日時
2015年1月29日（木　Thursday）16:40-17:20

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
塚原　悠一朗 （Readers：植田（和）戸村（平野））

地域経済の特徴は住宅ローン市場にどのような影響を与えるのか

日時
2015年1月29日（木　Thursday）17:20-18:00

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
明城壮志 （Readers：福田植田(健) （戸村））

Recent Monetary Policies and Inflation Expectations in Japan

日時
2015年1月29日（木　Thursday）18:00-18:40

場所東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟（小島ホール）１階第１セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告
橋本　翔 （Readers：青木戸村（平野））

The effect of the monetary policy on the wealth distribution

Workshops

マクロ経済学ワークショップ
Macroeconomics Workshop 2014

Workshops

マクロ経済学ワークショップ Macroeconomics Workshop 2014

マクロ経済学ワークショップ
Macroeconomics Workshop 2014