Workshops

Macroeconomics Workshop 2013

※ 2014年2月7日現在の予定です。

 

 

 

本年度終了分:

 

日時

April 11, 2013 (木 Thursday)16:40-18:20

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

Giulio Seccia (University of Southampton)

Deadline and welfare effects of scheduling information releases [PDF]

Abstract

How should institutions convey relevant information to the public? Should they schedule their communications or release information as it becomes available? What are the welfare effects of an unanticipated information release? We model a decentralized asset market and show that a credible schedule delays trade towards the information release date and unanticipated information arrivals entail a loss of insurance opportunities. We apply these findings to the scheduling of monetary policy decisions following the Federal Open Market Committee meetings from 1995 till 2010 and study the effects on the dynamics of trade on the 30-day Federal Funds Futures market. We use the model to empirically identify periods of credible (prior to 2001) and non-credible scheduling (after 2001). Finally we measure the loss in risk-trading activity due to off schedule announcements.

日時

April 18, 2013 (木 Thursday)16:40-18:20

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

川口大司(Daiji Kawaguchi) (Hitotsubashi University)

Incidence of Strict Quality Standards: Protection of Consumers or Windfall for Professionals? (joint with Tetsushi Murao, and Ryo Kambayashi) [PDF]

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of upgrading product quality standards on product and professional labor-market equilibriums when both markets are regulated. The Japanese government revised the Building Standards Act in June 2007, requiring a stricter review process for admitting the plans of large-scale buildings. This regulatory change increased the wage of certified architects in Tokyo by 38% but did not increase their total hours worked because of an inelastic labor supply. The stricter quality standards created a quasi-rent for certified architects and owners of condominiums at a cost to consumers in the Tokyo area, who faced a 15% higher condominium price after the policy change.

日時

April 25, 2013 (木 Thursday)16:40-18:20

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

瀧井克也 (Katsuya Takii) (Osaka University)

Incentives to Invest in Match-Specific Human Capital in Competitive Search Equilibrium (Joint with Keisuke Kawata)

Abstract

This paper analyzes an equilibrium wage contract when a firm must motivate workers to invest in match-specific human capital in a competitive search model. If the skill is not critical for production, the contract can induce an optimal effort and labor tightness. However, if it is critical, the contract coincides with an efficiency wage contract and cannot attain constrained optimal allocation. We argue that when market competition interacts with an equilibrium effort, the competition to attract workers increases ex ante utility at the expense of ex post surplus. It is shown that a random matching model can improve welfare.

日時

May 2, 2013 (木 Thursday)16:40-18:20

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

中島上智(Jouchi Nakajima) (Bank of Japan)

Identifying Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks: A Latent Threshold Approach (joint with Takeshi Kimura) [PDF]

Abstract

This paper proposes a new estimation framework for identifying monetary policy shocks in both conventional and unconventional policy regimes using a structural VAR model. Exploiting a latent threshold modeling strategy that induces time-varying shrinkage of the parameters, we explore a recursive identification switching with a time-varying overidentification for the interest rate zero lower bound. We empirically analyze Japan's monetary policy to illustrate the proposed approach for modeling regime-switching between conventional and unconventional monetary policy periods, and find that the proposed model is preferred over a nested standard time-varying parameter VAR model. The estimation results show that increasing bank reserves lowers long-term interest rates in the unconventional policy periods, and that the impulse responses of inflation and the output gap to a bank reserve shock appear to be positive but highly uncertain.

日時

May 9, 2013 (月 Monday)16:40-18:20

※曜日に注意

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

宮川大介 (Daisuke Miyakawa) (Development Bank of Japan)

Natural Disasters, Financial Shocks, and Firm Export (joint with Kaoru Hosono, Taisuke Uchino, Arito Ono, Hirofumi Uchida, and Iichiro Uesugi)

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of banks' lending capacity on firms' export. To identify exogenous shocks to firms' bank financing, we utilize the natural experiment provided by Japan's Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake in 1995. Using a unique firm-level dataset that allows us to identify firms and banks in the earthquake-affected area, together with information on bank-firm relationships, we find the following. First, we find significantly negative impacts on both the extensive and intensive margins of export among firms located outside the earthquake-affected area but having a main bank inside the area. Second, the adverse impact on the intensive margins is more sizable among firms in the industries shipping products mainly by sea than in the industries mainly shipping by air. This underlines the importance of banks as providers of trade finance for firms that transact bulky goods and need long-term trade finance. Third, the negative impact on the extensive margins is robust to two alternative specifications of bank damage, that is, damage to the headquarters and damage to the branch networks.

日時

May 16, 2013 (木 Thursday)16:40-18:20

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

田村彌 (Wataru Tamura) (University of Tokyo)

Optimal Monetary Policy and Transparency under Informational Frictions [PDF]

Abstract

This paper studies optimal monetary policy and central bank transparency in an economy where firms set prices under informational frictions. The economy is subject to two types of shocks which determine the efficient level of output and the firms' desired mark-up. To minimize the welfare-reducing output gap and price dispersion among the firms, the central bank controls the firms' incentives and expectations by using a monetary instrument and information disclosure about the fundamentals. This paper shows that the optimal policy entails partial disclosure of information and adjustment of the monetary instrument contingent on the disclosed information. Under the optimal policy, the public information is given by a weighted difference of the two shocks so as to induce a negative correlation between those conditional expectations, and monetary policy should offset a detrimental effect of such a disclosure policy on price stabilization.

日時

May 23, 2013 (木 Thursday)16:40-18:20

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

加納隆(Takashi Kano) (Hitotsubashi University)

Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Closing a Two-Country Model

Abstract

In an influtential paper, Engel and West (2005) establish near random-walk exchange rates in a simple equilibrium asset approach with I(1) fundamentals and the discount factor close to one. Subsequently, Nason and Rogers (2008) generalize the equilibrium random-walk property of nominal exchange rates into a two-country dynamic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with I(1) crosscountry money supply and TFP differentials. They find empirical evidence that permanent shocks to cross-country money supply and TFP differential dominate fluctuations in the bilateral exchange rate between Canada and the United States. In this paper, I argue that the cross-country TFP differential cannot be I(1) in order to close a canonical two-country DSGE model with incomplete financial markets. Understanding the empirical results of NR requires the stochastic trend processes of the two countries to be cointegrated with a sufficiently slow diffusion speed.

日時

May 24, 2013 (金 Friday)18:00-19:30 ※日時・場所に注意。

金融センター特別セミナーミクロワークショップと共催

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)2階 小島コンファレンスルーム
in Kojima Conference Room on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
参照 第65回金融センター特別セミナー
参加方法 ※定員に達したため申し込みを締め切らせていただきました。
報告

Jean Tirole (Chairman of the board of the Jean-Jacques Laffont Foundation/Toulouse School of Economics (TSE))

Cognitive Games and Cognitive Traps

※資料は当日配布されます。

Abstract

 

日時

May 30, 2013 (木 Thursday)16:40-18:20

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

池田大輔(Daisuke Ikeda) (Bank of Japan)

Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in Asset Price Bubbles [PDF]

Abstract

This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a monetary DSGE model which features both an asset price bubble and agency costs in firms' price-setting decisions. Amplified by nominal wage rigidities, an asset price bubble causes an inefficiently excessive boom. Inflation, however, remains moderate in the boom, because a loosening in financial tightness lowers the agency costs and adds downward pressure on marginal costs and inflation. In such an environment, strictly inflation targeting, which stabilizes inflation completely, makes the excessive boom even excessive in the short run. The optimal monetary policy calls for monetary tightening to curve the boom at the cost of a drop in inflation.

日時

June 6, 2013 (木 Thursday)16:40-18:20

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

戸村肇 (Hajime Tomura) (Hokkaido University)

Asset Illiquidity and Dynamic Bank Capital Requirements [PDF]

Abstract

This paper introduces banks into a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model by featuring asymmetric information as the underlying friction for banking. Asym- metric information about asset qualities causes a lemons problem in the asset market. In this environment, banks can issue liquid liabilities by pooling illiquid assets con- taminated by asymmetric information. The liquidity transformation by banks results in a minimum value of common equity that banks must issue to avoid a run. This value increases with downside risk to the asset price and the expected degree of asset illiquidity. It rises during a boom if productivity shocks cause the business cycle.

日時

June 13, 2013 (木 Thursday)16:40-18:20

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

脇雄一郎 (Yuichiro Waki) (University of Queensland)

A Polyhedral Approximation Approach to Concave Numerical Dynamic Programming (joint with Kenichi Fukushima) [PDF]

Abstract

This paper introduces a numerical method for solving concave continuous state dynamic programming problems which is based on a pair of polyhedral approximations of concave functions. The method is globally convergent and produces computable upper and lower bounds on the value function which can in theory be made arbitrarily tight. This is true regardless of the pattern of binding constraints, the smoothness of model primitives, and the dimensionality and rectangularity of the state space. We illustrate the method's performance using an optimal rm management problem subject to credit constraints and partial investment irreversibilities.

日時

June 19, 2013 (水 Wednesday)12:00-13:00 ※日時に注意

マクロファイナンス・金融&国際金融ワークショップと共催

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

R. Anton Braun (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)

Old, Sick, Alone and Poor: A Welfare Analysis of Old-Age Social Insurance Programs (joint with Karen A. Kopecky and Tatyana Koreshkova) [PDF]

Abstract

Poor heath, large acute and long-term care medical expenses and spousal death are significant drivers of impoverishment among retirees. We document these facts and build a rich overlapping generations model that reproduces them. We use the model to assess the incentive and welfare effects of U.S. Social Security and means-tested social insurance programs, such as Medicaid and food stamp programs, for the aged. We find that U.S. means-tested social insurance programs for retirees provide significant welfare benefits for all newborn. Moreover, when means-tested social insurance benefits are of the scale in the U.S., all newborn prefer that Social Security be removed. Finally, we find that the current scale of means-tested social insurance in the U.S. is about right in the following sense. If we condition on the current Social Security program, the benefits of increasing means-tested social insurance are small or negative.

日時

June 20, 2013 (木 Thursday)16:40-18:20

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

青木周平 (Shuhei Aoki) (Hitotsubashi University)

Pareto Distributions and the Evolution of Top Incomes in the U.S. (joint with Makoto Nirei) [PDF]

Abstract

This paper presents a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms and entrepreneur's portfolio choice. We analytically show that this model generates the Pareto distribution of top income earners and Zipf's law of firm at the steady state. The differential equation for the probability density distribution of income is derived and numerically evaluated. In the model, CEOs respond to a tax cut by increasing their share of stocks of their own firms, thereby increasing the diffusion of their wealth. The calibrated model shows that the transition path matches with the decline of the Pareto exponent of the income distribution and the trend of top 1% income share in the U.S. in recent decades. We argue that the low marginal income tax at the top bracket of income could lead to the higher dispersion of income among the top income earners, which results in the higher concentration of income in the top income group.

日時

June 27, 2013 (木 Thursday)16:40-18:20

UTIPE Distinguished Research Seminar Series funded by Global 30と共催

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

Marc Giannoni (Federal Researve Bank of New York)

The Inflation–Output Trade-Off Revisited

Abstract

A rich literature from the 1970s shows that as inflation expectations become more and more ingrained, monetary policy loses its stimulative effect. In the extreme, with perfectly anticipated inflation, there is no trade-off between inflation and output. A recent literature on the interest-rate zero lower bound, however, suggests there may be some benefits from anticipated inflation when the economy is in a liquidity trap. In this paper, we reconcile these two views by showing that while it is true, at positive interest rates, that inflation loses its stimulative effects as it becomes better anticipated, the opposite holds true at the zero bound. Indeed, at the zero bound, the more accurately the public anticipates inflation, the greater is the expansionary effect of inflation on output. This leads us to revisit the trade-off between inflation and output and to show how radically it changes in the face of demand shocks large enough to bring the economy into a liquidity trap. Instead of vanishing once inflation becomes anticipated, the trade-off between inflation and output increases substantially and may become arbitrarily large. In such cases, raising the inflation target in a liquidity trap can be very stimulative.

日時

July 4, 2013 (木 Thursday)16:40-18:20

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

Sekyu Choi (Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona)

On Households and Unemployment

Abstract

In this paper we document facts regarding unemployment rates across marital states: they are significantly lower for married workers in the U.S. Motivated by this, we develop an incomplete markets, three state labor model to answer two questions. First, how much of the difference in unemployment rates between married and non-married individuals can be accounted for by self-insurance inside the household versus intrinsic differences between the two groups? Second, how important has been the increase in the share of non-married households in the labor force during the last three decades vis a vis changes in labor market conditions to explain the evolution of the long-run unemployment rate of the economy?

日時 連続講義 ※日時に注意

July 3, 2013 (水 Wednesday) 12:00-13:30

July 4, 2013 (木 Thursday)13:00-14:30

July 5, 2013 (金 Friday) 10:30-12:00  

UTIPE Distinguished Research Seminar Series funded by Global 30, マクロファイナンス・金融&国際金融ワークショップと共催

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)2階 小島コンファレンスルーム
in Kojima Conference Room on the 2nd floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

清滝信宏 (Nobuhiro Kiyotaki) (Princeton University)

 

July 3, 2013 (水 Wednesday) 12:00-13:30

Financial Crisis and Credit

July 4, 2013 (木 Thursday)13:00-14:30

Liquidity, Business Cycles and Monetary Policy

July 5, 2013 (金 Friday) 10:30-12:00

Banking, Liquidity and Bank Runs in an Infinite Horizon Economy

日時

July 10, 2013 (水 Wednesday)12:00-13:00

マクロファイナンス・金融&国際金融ワークショップ, Special Lectures and Research Seminars funded by Global 30 と共催

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

Sung Wook Joh (Seoul National University)

Multiple Roles of Outside Directors: When are Friendly Directors Beneficial to Firms? (joint with Jin-Young Jung) [PDF]

Abstract

Using detailed information on outside directors' business, professional and social ties, we find that independent outside directors improve Tobin's Q particularly when monitoring becomes more effective (due to low information transaction costs or high potential agency costs). Connected, "friendly" outside directors improve firm value when a firm needs an advisor as it faces M&A threats, distress or financial volatility. Also, connected outside directors improve firm value more when a firm operates in regulatory environments where a boundary spanning role becomes more important. Our results are robust controlling for endogeneity issues. Our paper suggests that the value of independence or connectedness of outside directors depends on their roles as a monitor, advisor, or boundary spanner given the corporate environments and characteristics.

日時

July 18, 2013 (木 Thursday)16:40-18:20

Special Lectures and Research Seminars funded by Global 30 と共催

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

Jan Groen (Federal Reserve Bank of New York )

Revisiting Useful Approaches to Data-Rich Macroeconomic Forecasting (joint with George Kapetanios) [PDF]

Abstract

We compare a number of data-rich prediction methods that are widely used in macroeconomic forecasting with a lesser known alternative: partial least squares (PLS) regression. In this method, linear, orthogonal combinations of a large number of predictor variables are constructed such that the covariance between a target variable and these common components is maximized. We show theoretically that when the data have a factor structure, PLS regression can be seen as an alternative way to approximate this unobserved factor structure. In addition, we prove that when a large data set has a weak factor structure, which possibly vanishes in the limit, PLS regression still provides asymptotically the best fit for the target variable of interest. Monte Carlo experiments confirm our theoretical results that PLS regression performs at least as well as principal components regression and rivals Bayesian regression when the data have a factor structure. But when the factor structure in the data is weak, PLS regression outperforms both principal components and Bayesian regressions. Finally, we apply PLS, principal components, and Bayesian regressions to a large panel of monthly U.S. macroeconomic data to forecast key variables across different subperiods. The results indicate that PLS regression usually has the best out-of-sample performance.

日時

September 9, 2013 (月 Monday)16:40-18:20 ※曜日に注意

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

植田健一 (Kenichi Ueda) (International Monetary Fund)

Institutions, Financial Frictions and Investment: Estimation with Structural Restrictions (joint with Stijn Claessens (IMF) and Yishay Yafeh (Hebrew University)) [PDF]

Abstract

We investigate how, by affecting financial frictions, country-specific institutions (such as shareholder and creditor rights) influence firm-level investment decisions. Using a structural model, we investigate two channels for the effects of institutions: on the cost of capital at the firm (micro) and on the required rate of return at the country (macro) level. Using a panel of 75,000 firm-years from 48 countries over the period 1990-2007, we find that: (i) country-level institutions affect firms' investment behavior; (ii) shareholder rights affect financial frictions and investment more than other institutions (e.g., product market competition, creditor rights) do; and (iii) the effects are especially pronounced for small firms with large financing needs, suggesting that stronger shareholder rights lead to a more efficient allocation of capital. These results suggest that improved corporate governance is key for reducing productivity dispersion across firms and foster economic growth.

日時

September 19, 2013 (木 Thursday)16:40-18:20

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第2セミナー室
in Seminar Room 2 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

※会場が通常と異なりますのでご注意下さい。

報告

Urszula Szczerbowicz (CEPII - Research and expertise on the world economy )

The ECB Unconventional Monetary Policies: Have They Lowered Market Borrowing Costs for Banks and Governments? [PDF]

Abstract

This paper is the first one to evaluate the impact of all ECB unconventional monetary policies implemented between 2007 and 2012 on bank and government borrowing costs. We employ event-based regressions to measure the effect of each policy. The borrowing conditions for banks are represented by money market spreads and covered bond spreads while the sovereign bond spreads reflect government borrowing costs. The results show that sovereign bond purchasing programs (SMP, OMT) proved to be the most effective in lowering longer-term borrowing costs for both banks and governments with the largest impact in periphery euro-area countries. The strong impact in the euro-area periphery suggests that the central bank intervention in sovereign market is particularly effective when the sovereign risk is important. Furthermore, both covered bond purchase programs and 3-year loans to banks reduced bank refinancing costs.

日時

October 3, 2013 (木 Thursday)16:40-18:20

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

Julen Esteban-Pretel (GRIPS)

Labor Market Policies in a Dual Economy (joint with Sagiri Kitao) [PDF]

Abstract

A structural model of unemployment is built to account for labor mobility between informal and formal sectors and to quantify the effects of labor market policies on employment, precautionary and life-cycle savings and welfare. The model is calibrated to labor market dynamics in Mexico, where almost half of the workforce is in the informal sector. An introduction of unemployment insurance has only a small impact on unemployment but induces a sectoral reallocation of formal labor into informality. Generous severance payments from employers lower the wage of formal jobs and reduce flows from unemployment to formality. Shifting the tax burden from labor income onto consumption significantly raises the share of formal workers of the economy, enhancing productivity and welfare.

日時

October 10, 2013 (木 Thursday)16:40-18:20

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

國枝卓真(Takuma Kunieda)(City University of Hong Kong)

Corruption, Globalization, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence (joint with Keisuke Okada and Akihisa Shibata) [PDF]

Abstract

We investigate, both theoretically and empirically, how the negative effects of government corruption on the economic growth of a country are magnified or reduced by capital account liberalization. Our model shows that highly corrupt countries impose higher tax rates than do less corrupt countries, thereby magnifying the negative impacts of government corruption on economic growth in highly corrupt countries and reducing the impacts in less corrupt countries if capital account liberalization is enacted. Empirical evidence obtained from an analysis of panel data collected from 109 countries is consistent with our theoretical predictions. Our theoretical and empirical results contribute to the recent policy debates on the merits and demerits of capital account liberalization.

日時

October 17, 2013 (木 Thursday)16:40-18:20

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

寺西勇生(Yuki Teranishi) (Keio University)・宗像 晃(Ko Munakata) (Bank of Japan)

Optimal Macroprudential Policy (joint with Koji Nakamura) [PDF]

Abstract

We introduce financial market friction through search and matching in the loan market into a standard New Keynesian model. We reveal that the second order approximation of social welfare includes the terms related to credit, such as credit market tightness, the volume of credit, and the loan separation rate, in addition to the inflation rate and consumption under financial market friction. Our analytical result justifies why optimal policy should take credit variation into account. We introduce monetary policy and macroprudential policy measures for financial stability into the model. The optimal outcome is achieved through monetary and macroprudential policies by taking into account not only price stability but also financial stability.

日時

October 24, 2013 (木 Thursday)16:40-18:20

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

Toan Phan (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill)

Toxic Asset Bubble & Global Imbalances (joint with Daisuke Ikeda) [PDF]

Abstract

First, we show that welfare reducing asset bubbles, which we call toxic bubbles, can emerge in a standard framework of rational bubble. In our model, limited liability and defaultable debt contracts induce banks to shift the bubble's risk of collapse to their creditors. Risk shifting enables risky toxic bubbles to emerge in equilibrium, even if all agents are rational and forward looking. We then analyze welfare effects of an intervention policy that pricks an existing bubble, and of a preventative macroprudential banking regulation. Second, we generalize the model to two large open economies. The global model shows that an emerging economy can "outsource" a toxic bubble to a developed economy through global financial intermediation. Hence, a toxic bubble can emerge in the developed economy, where there is no dynamic inefficiency. The model formalizes the idea that a "savings glut" coming from emerging economies to the United States fueled the boom of a subprime mortgage bubble. The model provides a tractable framework for bubble policy analysis in open economies.

日時

November 7, 2013 (木 Thursday)16:40-18:20

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

鈴木通雄 (Michio Suzuki) (University of Tokyo)

The firm-level productivity distribution in Japan for 1980-2008 (joint with Hiroyuki Kasahara)

Abstract

 

日時

November 14, 2013 (木 Thursday)16:40-18:20

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

経済史研究会と共催

報告

Ronald A. Edwards(Tamkang University)

Economic Revolution: Song China & England

Abstract

I claim that China during the Song Dynasty (960 – 1279 AD) (Song China hereafter) experienced the onset of an Economic Revolution, preceding England's by nearly a millennium. The concept of Economic Revolution is defined to include two types – one Premodern (non-science based) with a low growth rate of per capita product and one Modern (science-based) with a high growth rate of per capita product. It is argued that the Song China vs. England comparison is more relevant than other comparisons with England. Using both the Song China and England episodes, I introduce a new definition of the "onset of an Economic Revolution" that identifies preliminary social changes, which I call the Embryonic stage. I argue that it is the Embryonic stage that largely causes firm formation, household changes and an increase in the pace of technological innovation. I contend the Embryonic stage more clearly identifies and dates the onset of an Economic Revolution. This has important implications for theories of its cause.

日時

November 21, 2013 (木 Thursday)16:40-18:20

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

Gee Hee Hong (Bank of Canada)

The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications (joint with Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko) [PDF]

Abstract

We study the cyclical properties of sales, regular price changes and average prices paid by consumers ("effective" prices) using data on prices and quantities sold for numerous retailers across many U.S. metropolitan areas. Inflation in the effective prices paid by consumers declines significantly with higher unemployment while little change occurs in the inflation rate of prices posted by retailers. This difference reflects the reallocation of household expenditures across retailers, a feature of the data which we document and quantify, rather than sales. We propose a simple model with household store-switching and assess its implications for business cycles and policymakers.

日時

November 28, 2013 (木 Thursday)16:40-18:20
ミクロ実証分析ワークショップと共催

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

Krislert Samphantharak (University of California, San Diego)

Risk and Return in Village Economies (joint with Robert M. Townsend)

Abstract

We present a theoretical model for the study of risk and return of household enterprise in developing economies. We make predictions from two polar benchmarks: (1) an economy with Pareto optimal allocations under full risk sharing, and (2) an economy in which each autarky household absorbs risk in isolation. The full risk-sharing benchmark delivers the prediction that only aggregate covariate risk contributes to the risk premium of asset returns while idiosyncratic risk is fully diversified, consistent with analogous results derived from the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) in the finance literature. The economy with autarky households predicts that overall variance at the household level is the only concern. Our model allows us to empirically decompose the total risk in production technologies operated by households into aggregate and idiosyncratic components and provides us with a practical procedure to compute risk premium for each component separately. We apply the model to monthly panel data from a household survey in rural Thailand where there are active risk-sharing and kinship networks. We find that there is nontrivial aggregate risk and there is a positive relationship between the expected returns on assets and the comovement of asset returns with the aggregate returns, as predicted by the full risk sharing economy. There is residual idiosyncratic risk and it also contributes to the total risk premium, as predicted by the autarky benchmark. However, although idiosyncratic risk is the dominant factor in total risk, our study shows that it accounts for a much smaller share of total risk premium. Our findings suggest that the risk sharing benchmark captures the larger part, though not all, of what is going on in the Thai village economies in our sample. We also find that exposure to aggregate and idiosyncratic risk is heterogeneous across households.

日時

December 3, 2013 (火 Tuesday)16:40-18:20 ※曜日に注意

ミクロワークショップと共催

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Seung-Gyu Sim (University of Tokyo)

Economic Growth and Labor Market Institutions in East Asian Structural Transformation (joint with Seungjoon Oh) [paper]

Abstract

This paper develops a new growth model by incorporating labor market friction into the multi-sector growth framework and calibrates it on the Japanese and South Korean structural transformation episodes in order to analyze the underlying link between economic growth and labor market institutions in a transitional economy. The model demonstrates that lifetime employment (and the implied lengthy job tenure) have enhanced human capital accumulation and facilitated physical capital investment, enabling the Japanese and South Korean economies to achieve, during its structural transformation, a Ricardian comparative advantage in the sectors in which substantial investment and a skilled work force are required. The counterfactual experiment finds that had the average job duration of Japanese workers been 1 year rather than current 12.5 years, the non-agricultural employment share in 1990 would account for 75 percent of the actual value and the non-agricultural GDP per capita in 1990 would account for only half of the actual value, suggesting inappreciable and sluggish structural transformation. Also, had the Japanese labor market maintained from 1960-1990 the high job-finding and separation rates as the U.S. labor market, the sectoral GDP per capita in 1990 would have declined by 8 and 21 percent in agricultural and non-agricultural sector, respectively.

日時

December 12, 2013 (木 Thursday)16:40-18:20

都市経済ワークショップと共催

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Donald Davis (Columbia University)

Comparative Advantage of Cities

Abstract

What determines the distributions of skills, occupations, and industries across cities? We develop a theory to jointly address these fundamental questions about the spatial organization of economies. Our model incorporates a system of cities, their internal urban structures, and a high -dimensional theory of factor-driven comparative advantage. It predicts that larger cities will be skill abundant and specialize in skill intensive activities according to the monotone likelihood ratio property. We test the model using data on 270 US metropolitan areas, 3 to 9 educational categories, 22 occupations, and 21 manufacturing industries. The results provide support for our theory's predictions.

日時

December 19, 2013 (木 Thursday)16:40-18:20

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

Kiminori Matsuyama (Northwestern University)

Endogenous Ranking and Equilibrium Lorenz Curve Across (ex-ante) Identical Countries: A Generalization [PDF]

Abstract

This paper proposes a symmetry-breaking model of trade with a finite number of identical countries and a continuum of tradeable consumption goods, which differ in their dependence on nontradeable intermediate inputs, "producer services". Productivity of each country is endogenous due to country-specific external economies of scale in its service sector. It is shown that, in any stable equilibrium, the countries sort themselves into specializing in different sets of tradeable goods and that a strict ranking of countries in per capita income, TFP, the service sector share, and the capital-labor ratio emerge endogenously. Furthermore, the distribution of country shares, the Lorenz curve, is unique and analytically solvable in the limit, as the number of countries grows unbounded. Using this limit as an approximation allows us to study what determines the shape of distribution, perform various comparative statics and to evaluate the welfare effects of trade. In doing so, this paper extends the analysis of Matsuyama (2013) for more general and flexible forms of scale economies. It turns out that the technique introduced in Matsuyama (2013) is useful for the equilibrium characterization in this general case as well. Although some results of comparative statics and on welfare inevitably need to be modified, they change in ways that illuminate the underlying mechanism of symmetry-breaking.

日時 ※ 2014年1-2月 修士論文報告会 Master's Thesis Presentations ※

1.下記の予定は変更の可能性もありますのでご注意下さい

(Please note that the following schedule might be changed)。

2.発表は基本的に日本語で行われます

(Presentations are basically in Japanese)。

発表者の方へ

発表論文についてはCIRJEにて印刷し、当日会場にて配布いたします。つきましては、下記の期日までに最終稿のファイルまたはハードコピーをご提出ください。

 

発表論文提出期限(厳守):

1月 9日(木)発表者=1月 8日(水)朝9:00(必着)まで

1月16日(木)発表者=1月15日(水)朝9:00(必着)まで

1月30日(木)発表者=1月29日(水)朝9:00(必着)まで

2月 6日(木)発表者= 2月 5日(水)朝9:00(必着)まで

 

提出先:学術交流棟(小島ホール)6階CIRJE・田中公子(kimiko [at mark]e.u-tokyo.ac.jp)

  1. 上記提出期限の日時を過ぎたものについてはいかなる理由があっても受け付けられません。ご自身で15部のコピーをご用意の上、当日会場にご持参ください。
  2. 論文は必ず最終稿をご提出ください。提出後の差し替えは受け付けませんので、差し替えなければならない事態が発生した場合には、論文はご自身で印刷して(15部)当日持参して頂くことになります。
  3. 添付ファイルが破損している等、ファイルが開けない場合は連絡を差し上げるため、ファイルで提出される方はお申し込み時に携帯電話番号等、当日すぐに連絡のつく連絡先をお書き添え下さい。
  4. 別途、正式な修士論文口述試験が行なわれるので、修士論文提出時に大学院係 から配付される審査日程を参照のうえ、必ずご出席下さい。
  5. パソコン・ポインターはセミナー室ロッカー内の機器をご使用のうえ、設置・片づけは最初と最後の発表者が各自で行って下さい。(プロジェクターは会場に備え付けられています。)

Your thesis paper is distributed at the seminar venue.  Please send an electronic file of it to Kimiko Tanaka at kimiko [at mark] e.u-tokyo.ac.jp, so that CIRJE can duplicate it.  You can also bring its hardcopy directly to the CIRJE office on the 6th floor of Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall). 

 

The submission deadline is (please be punctual):

January 9 (Thursday)… by 9:00am., January 8 (Wednesday)
January 16 (Thursday)…by 9:00am., January 15 (Wednesday)

January 30 (Thursday)…by 9:00am., January 29 (Wednesday)

February 6 (Thursday)…by 9:00am., February 5 (Wednesday)

 

Make sure that

  • Submission behind the deadline is not accepted for any reason.
  • The file/hardcopy submitted to CIRJE should be the final version.
  • You need to send your emergency contact information such as cell phone number together with your thesis file, so that CIRJE can immediately reach you in case the file cannot be opened/is broken.

Those who missed the deadline or those who would like to revise the thesis paper after the submission, are required to make 15 hardcopies of it and bring them to the seminar venue on the presentation day.

You MUST attend an official oral examination in addition to this master thesis presentation:  for details, please see the schedule to be distributed by the Graduate Office when you submit your thesis.

Presenters can use equipment such as a computer and a pointer in a locker in the seminar venue on the presentation day:  make sure they should be back into place after use.


日時

2014年1月9日(木 Thursday)16:40-17:20

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

今泉允聡 (Readers: 岩本 下津 (市村))

A temporal difference method to solve dynamic discrete models with the curse of dimensionality

日時

2014年1月9日(木 Thursday)17:20-18:00

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

佐藤浩司 (Readers: 岩本  井堀  (林))

The Perspectives of Regional Differentials in the Japanese Long-term Care Insurance: A Dynamic Panel Date Analysis

日時

2014年1月9日(木 Thursday)18:00-18:40

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

寺田和之 (Readers: 岩本  林 (井堀 ))

Social Welfare and Residential Choice

日時

2014年1月16日(木 Thursday)16:40-17:20

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

三田泰也 (Readers: 植田  小枝 (平野))

最近の国債市場の流動性について

日時

2014年1月16日(木 Thursday)17:20-18:00

場所

東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]

報告

瀧塚寧孝 (Readers: 小枝  植田  (青木))

The US and Japanese Quantitative or Qualitative Easing: Are they effective from the current maturity sides view?

日時

2014年1月30日(木 Thursday)16:00-16:40 ※Schedule Changed

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

矢尾祐樹 (Readers: 青木 渡辺 (平野)

macro-prudence policy and regulatory arbitrage in open economy

日時

2014年1月30日(木 Thursday)16:40-17:20

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

コウ シン (Readers:  渡辺  青木 (吉川))

動学的効率性から見る中国経済成長の不均衡

日時

2014年1月30日(木 Thursday)17:20-18:00

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

石川尊規 (Readers: 青木  渡辺 (吉川))

Lemon market and the effect of Credit Easing

日時

2014年1月30日(木 Thursday)18:00-18:40

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room 1 on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

大部隼人 (Readers: 青木  渡辺 (吉川))

Bank Capital Regulation and Macroeconomic Stability

Abstract  
日時

2014年1月30日(木 Thursday)18:40-19:20

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

村上弘毅 (Readers: 吉川  渡辺  (福田))

A Long-Run Dynamic Extension of the Non-Walrasian Theory

Abstract  
日時

2014年2月6日(木 Thursday)16:40-17:20

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

武藤裕雄 (Readers: 伊藤(隆) 福田 (青木))

何が為替を動かすのか? ―アベノミクス1年目の観点から―

Abstract  
日時

2014年2月6日(木 Thursday)17:20-18:00

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

チョーカティワットソンクン (Readers: 福田 澤田 (青木))

Effects of Health care Reform on Health Care Utilization in Thailand

Abstract  
日時

2014年2月6日(木 Thursday)18:00-18:40

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

浅井 正史 (Readers: 福田  藤本(淳) (青木))

Determinants of Global Current Account Imbalances

Abstract  
日時

2014年2月6日(木 Thursday)18:40-19:20

場所 東京大学大学院経済学研究科 学術交流棟 (小島ホール)1階 第1セミナー室
in Seminar Room on the 1st floor of the Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall) [Map]
報告

渡辺思明 (Readers: 福田  藤本(淳) (青木)

途上国におけるインフレ目標政策と為替政策

Abstract