CIRJE-F-689 "Generalized Extreme Value Distribution with Time-Dependence Using the AR and MA Models in State Space Form"
Author Name Nakajima, Jouchi, Tsuyoshi Kunihama, Yasuhiro Omori and Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter
Date November 2009
Full Paper @
Remarks @Revised as CIRJE-F-782 (2011).
Abstract

A new state space approach is proposed to model the time-dependence in an extreme value process. The generalized extreme value distribution is extended to incorporate the time-dependence using a state space representation where the state variables either follow an autoregressive (AR) process or a moving average (MA) process with innovations arising from a Gumbel distribution. Using a Bayesian approach, an efficient algorithm is proposed to implement Markov chain Monte Carlo method where we exploit a very accurate approximation of the Gumbel distribution by a ten-component mixture of normal distributions. The methodology is illustrated using extreme returns of daily stock data. The model is fitted to a monthly series of minimum returns and the empirical results support strong evidence for time-dependence among the observed minimum returns.