CIRJE-F-672 "Simple Expected Volatility (SEV) Index: Application to SET50 Index Options"
Author Name Wiphatthanananthakul, Chatayan and Michael McAleer
Date September 2009
Full Paper PDF file
Remarks @ Subsequently published in Mathematics and Computers in Simulation Volume 80, Issue 10, June 2010, Pages 2079–2090
Abstract

In 2003, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) made two key enhancements to the volatility index (VIX) methodology based on S&P options. The new VIX methodology seems to be based on a complicated formula to calculate expected volatility. In this paper, with the use of Thailand's SET50 Index Options data, we modify the apparently complicated VIX formula to a simple relationship, which has a higher negative correlation between the VIX for Thailand (TVIX) and SET50 Index Options. We show that TVIX provides more accurate forecasts of option prices than the simple expected volatility (SEV) index, but the SEV index outperforms TVIX in forecasting expected volatility. Therefore, the SEV index would seem to be a superior tool as a hedging diversification tool because of the high negative correlation with the volatility index.