This paper compares the impacts of SARS and human deaths arising from Avian
Flu on international tourist arrivals to Asia. The effects of SARS and human deaths
from Avian Flu will be compared directly according to human deaths. The nature of
the short run and long run relationship is examined empirically by estimating a static
line fixed effect model and a difference transformation dynamic model, respectively.
Empirical results from the static fixed effect and difference transformation dynamic
models are consistent, and indicate that both the short run and long run SARS
effect have a more significant impact on international tourist arrivals than does Avian
Flu. In addition, the effects of deaths arising from both SARS and Avian Flu suggest
that SARS is more important to international tourist arrivals than is Avian Flu. Thus,
while Avian Flu is here to stay, its effect is currently not as significant as that of
SARS.
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