CIRJE-F-540 "Term Structure of Interest Rates under Recursive Preferences in Continuous Time"
Author Name Nakamura, Hisashi, Keita Nakayama and Akihiko Takahashi
Date January 2008
Full Paper PDF file
Remarks Revised in February 2008; subsequently published in Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Vol.15-3,4, 273-305.
Abstract

This paper proposes a testable continuous-time term-structure model with recursive utility to investigate structural relationships between the real economy and the term structure of real and nominal interest rates. In a representative-agent model with recursive utility and mean-reverting expectations on real output growth and inflation, this paper shows that, if (1) real short-term interest rates are high during economic booms and (2) the agent is comparatively risk-averse (less risk-averse) relative to time-separable utility, then a real yield curve slopes down (slopes up, respectively). Additionally, for the comparatively risk-averse agent, if (3) expected inflation is negatively correlated with the real output and its expected growth, then a nominal yield curve can slope up, regardless of the slope of the real yield curve.