CIRJE-J-147 『季節調整法』
"On Seasonal Adjustment Methods"
Author Name 国友直人(Naoto Kunitomo)
Date January 2006
Full Paper PDF file (only Japanese version available)
Remarks 「計量経済学ハンドブック」 14章, 2007, 朝倉書店 所収。
Abstract (Japanese) Abstract (English)


This is a brief survey of the existing seasonal adjustment methods. We first discuss the problem of economic seasonality commonly observed in many economic time series and the historical development of the X-11 and the X-12-ARIMA methods by the U.S. Census bureau. We also mention to other seasonal adjustment methods including the X-11-ARIMA method, the SEATS-TRAMO method and the Decomp method developed by the Institute of Statistical Mathematics. It is possible to interpret that the underlying stochastic processes of X-12-ARIMA and Decomp are similar and the latter gives automatically the optimal estimation of state variables via the Kalman-filtering. It is advisable to use the Decomp method for examining and monitoring the computational results obtained by the X-12-ARIMA method and the RegARIMA modeling at various central offices in Japan.