1995 年1 月17 日に阪神淡路大震災が発生してから10 年が経過した。本稿では、 兵庫県が実施した「震災後のくらしの変化からみた消費行動についての調査報告書」 のミクロデータを利用して、この歴史的にみても極めて巨額にのぼる大震災による 損失に対して、家計がどのように対処したのかを、定量的に検証した。実証分析の 結果、震災被害への対処は、どのような被害を受けたかによって異なることがわか った。具体的には、家屋の被害に対しては借り入れや所得移転によって、家財の被 害に対しては貯蓄の取り崩しによってまかなわれた。多くの場合、自然災害による 被害は、政府がすべてをカバーしきれるものではない。従って、借入に対する補助 などを通じて人々の事後的なリスク対処能力を高めることや、事前の防災インセン ティブを高めるような保険市場の整備が重要である。

Applying the ordered probit model to household data, we investigate people's behavior against unexpected losses caused by the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake in 1995. We found that credit market played an important role in providing an effective risk-coping measure. In the process of preparing well-designed social safety nets against future natural disasters, there exist two policy implications based on our analyses: first, in its attempt to provide ex post public support in the event of a natural disaster, the government may create a moral hazard problem by encouraging people to expose themselves to greater risks than required. Our empirical results suggest that providing subsidized loans to victims can be a good example of facilitating risk-coping behavior; such interventions are less likely to create serious moral hazard problems. Second, it would be imperative to design ex ante risk-management policies against the earthquake. For example, development of markets for earthquake insurance would lead to the efficient pricing of insurance premium and efficient land market prices reflective of the amount of risk involved with lands. This development would generate proper incentives to invest in mitigations such as investments in earthquake-proof constructions against future earthquakes. These ex ante measures would significantly reduce the overall social loss caused by the earthquake.