CIRJE Conferences 2001

Conference on "Statistical Aspects of Insurance and Finance"(CIRJE)

  • Organizer: Naoto Kunitomo (University of Tokyo)
  • February 15, 2002
  • at the conference room A (No.1) on the 12th Floor of New Economics Building,
    Hongo Campus, University of Tokyo

The second conference on "Statistical Problems in Insurance and Finance" by the project was held at the University of Tokyo on February 15, 2002. It was intended to understand the real issues and problems in the research areas of statistical and econometric analyses of Insurance and Finance, which are closely related to the actuarial sciences and statistics, as at the first conference. For the current issues in Insurance Industry and actuarial displine, Syuji Tanaka (NLI Research Institute) gave a talk on the current issues of risk management problems in the life insurance industry. Then Kuniyoshi Saito had a talk on some empirical analysis of risk attitudes of consumers for the non-life insurance. Also Naoto Kunitomo (the project leader) gave a short talk on the statistical problems on risk managements and finally Kazumitsu Nawata gave a talk on the statistical risk analysis of automobile accidents in Japan. Rather intensive discussions have been risen including some controversial directions in the recent methods of statistical risk measurements and practices in the insurance industries. Some fundamental economic questions have been raised on the risk attitudes of consumers in actual (rather complicated) insurance policies and their measurements. The third conference will be planned to be more stressed on the related research activities in stochastic analysis, statistics, and finance.


PROGRAM

Chair: Yoshihiro Yajima (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)
14:30-15:10 Shuji Tanaka (Nissei, NLI Research Institute), "On Risk Control in Pension Management"
15:15-15:55 Kuniyoshi Saito (Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo),
"An Econometric Analysis of Non-life Insurance"
Chair: Akihiko Takahashi (Graduate School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Tokyo)
16:00-16:30 Naoto Kunitomo (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo),
"On Risk Measures and Risk Control"
16:35-17:15 Kazumitsu Nawata (Faculty of Engineering, University of Tokyo),
"A Statistical Analysis of Automobile Casualty"

Trio 2001 Conference---Issues in Fiscal Adjustment
NBER-CEPR-TCER CONFERENCE

  • Organizers:
    Takeo Hoshi(UC San Diego)
    Toshihiro Ihori(University of Tokyo)
    Sadao Nagaoka(Hitotsubashi University)
  • December 13-14, 2001
  • International House of Japan, Tokyo, Japan
  • PROGRAM

The 14th TRIO conference, which was jointly held by TCER, NBER and CEPR, took place on the 13th and 14th in December 2001 in Tokyo. The conference addressed issues in fiscal adjustment such as:

What are the long-run economic implications of different ways to reduce the fiscal surplus in the U.S?
How did the countries in Europe reduce the fiscal deficits? What are the implications of the different approaches taken by different countries?
Is the Japan's fiscal policy sustainable? If not, how should Japan proceed with consolidation?

In total, 8 papers were presented, 3 from both Japan and Europe and 2 from the USA. Thirty researchers, including economists from Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan participated in the conference.

Conference on "Enterprises, Labour Markets and Institutions in Italy Facing the Challenges of the XXI Century"(Italian Chamber of Commerce)

  • October 23-24, 2001
  • Univeristy Museum, The University of Tokyo, Hongo, Tokyo
  • To Be Included in the Initiatives for "Italy in Japan 2001"
  • PROGRAM

The aim of this project is the diffusion of selected information and qualified opinion on topical subjects in Italian economic and social evolution. The project is a joint initiative of a pool of research Foundations, with a consolidated experience and prestige in Italy within their fields of specialisation. A particular attention has been given to a selection of topics susceptible to arise comparative interest from the point of view of a Japanese counterpart, given the aspects of a common relevance of the problems in both countries. In each session of the seminar two research reports should be presented by the Italian rapporteurs; two Japanese experts would comment and introduce discussion. Financial support for the publication of the papers and the proceedings of the seminar is being applied for.

Participants
F. Barca (Ministry of Treasury), S. Bimonte (Siena University), Paolo Calza Bini (IRIDISS-CNR/National Centre of Research on Welfare Systems), Carlo Andrea Bollino (Universita di Perugia and CNEL), Tony Braun (University of Tokyo), Marco Demarie (Agnelli Foundation, Turin), C. Filippini (ISESAO/Institute of Economic and Social Studies for Oriental Asia, L. Bocconi University, Milan), Franzini(Siena University), M. Di Matteo (Siena University), R.Helg (Cattaneo University-LIUC and Centre of Study on Internationalisation Processes (CESPRI), L.Bocconi University, Milan), Nobuhiro Hiwatari (University of Tokyo), Cesare Imbriani (Universita di Roma "La Sapienza"), A. Innocenti (Siena University), Isamu Ito (Saitama University), K. Iwai (University of Tokyo), Sumi Iwamoto (Bunkyo University), Masao Kotani (Ochanomizu University), Hiroko Kudo (Waseda University), Pietro Larizza (President, CNEL(Consiglio Nazionale dell'Economia e del Lavoro)), Yousuke Mamiya(Kyoto University), Franco Mazzei (Istituto Universitario Orientale, Napoli), Yoshiyuki Okamoto (Housei University), U. Pagano (Siena University), P.Piacentini (Fondazione G.Brodolini, Roma), Giuseppe Ponzini (IRIDISS-CNR/National Centre of Research on Welfare Systems), L. F. Punzo (Siena University), G. De Rita (Censis Foundation), G. Roma (Censis Foundation), Kenichi Sakai (Tokyo Keizai University), R Schiattarella (Fondazione G.Brodolini, Roma), S. Trento (Siena University), A. Vercelli (Siena University), Hiroshi Yoshikawa (University of Tokyo), L. Tronti or R. Monducci or A. Dapanizza (ISTAT/ National Institute of Statistic Studies), TBA(Japan)

TCER-CIRJE Macro Conference III

  • Organizers:
    Fumio Hayashi (CIRJE, University of Tokyo)
    Ken Ariga (Kyoto University)
    Charles Yuji Horioka (Osaka University)
  • September 29(Sat.), 2001
  • OSIPP Senri Extention, 9th Floor of Senri Life Science Center Building, Toyonaka, Osaka


SUMARRY
The third annual CIRJE-TCER macroeconomics conference, organized by Fumio Hayashi of CIRJE, Charles Horioka of Osaka University, and Kenn Ariga of Kyoto University, was held on September 29, 2001. About 30 economists from universities and the Bank of Japan participated. Five papers were presented. They were selected from a number of papers that had been submitted in response to a call for papers. The topics covered were: the role of land value in the Japanese economic growth, an empirical examination of bank lending using micro data, the history-dependent monetary policy, the stability of money demand, and a resolution of asset pricing anomalies.

Participants
Kenn Ariga (Kyoto University), Hiroshi Fujiki (Bank of Japan), Yuko Hashimoto（Keio University), Fumio Hayashi (CIRJE/University of Tokyo), Charles Yuji Horioka (Osaka University), Kaoru Hosono（Nagoya City University), Takatoshi Ito (Hitotsubashi University), Tokuo Iwaisako (Hitotsubashi University), Takeshi Kimura (Bank of Japan), Takushi Kurozumi (Bank of Japan), Colin McKenzie (Osaka University), Heather Montgomery (Asian Development Bank), Kazuo Ogawa (Osaka University), Makoto Saito (Hitotsubashi University), Masaya Sakuragawa (Nagoya City University）, Yukie Sakuragawa (Nagoya City University), Yuri Sasaki (Meiji Gakuin University), Keiko Shimono (Nagoya City University), Mototsugu Shintani (Keio University), Etsuro Shioji (Yokohama National University), Akiko Tamura (Hosei University), Tomoko Yotsuzuka (Otemon Gakuin University), Kenshiro Hirata, Shuji Ueda, Midori Wakabayashi, Ken Yamada (Graduate School of Osaka University), Fumio Ohtake (Osaka University)

CIRJE/NBER /EIJS/CEPR
Japan Project Meeting

  • (with major funding from a grant-in-aid for Scientific Research from the Ministry of Education and Technology of the Japanese government)
  • Magnus Blomstrom (Stockholm School of Economics), Jennifer Corbett(Oxford University), Fumio Hayashi (CIRJE, University of Tokyo), and Anil Kashyap(University of Chicago), Organizers
  • September 14-15, 2001
  • Swedish Embassy
    1-10-3-100 Roppongi, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan

The third annual CIRJE Japan Project Meeting, co-organized with the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research, based in the U.S.), the EIJS (European Institute for Japanese Studies, based in Sweden), and the CEPR (Center for Economic Policy Research, based in England), was held on September 14 and 15, 2001, at the Swedish Embassy. Despite the terrorist attack that took place right before the conference, more than 60 academics, private-sector economists, and policymakes from within and outside Japan participated. Economics Minister Heizo Takenaka gave a lunchtime speech. Eight papers were presented. The topics covered were monetary policy, the bad debt problem, the Japanese growth slowdown, and the aging of the population.


PROGRAM
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 14

9:00 AM
TAEHUN JUNG, YUKI TERANISHI and TSUTOMU WATANABE, Hitotsubashi University
Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy
Discussant: SERGIO NICOLETTI ALTIMARI, European Central Bank
10:30 AM
HIROSHI FUJIKI and SHIGENORI SHIRATSUKA, Bank of Japan
Policy Duration Effect under the Zero Interest Rate Policy in 1999-2000: Evidence from Japan's Money Market Data
Discussant: MATTHEW SHAPIRO, University of Michigan and NBER
12:00 AM
Lunchtime Speaker: HEIZO TAKENAKA, Economics Minister of the Japanese Government
1:00 PM
Panel Discussion on the Looming Social Security Crisis in Japan
Chair: CHARLES HORIOKA, Osaka University and NBER
Panelists: TATSUO HATTA, University of Tokyo
MARTEN PALME, Stockholm School of Economics
TOSHIAKI TACHIBANAKI, Kyoto University
2:45 PM
RALPH BRYANT, Brookings Institution
WARWICK MCKIBBIN, Australian National University
Incorporating Demographic Change in Multi-Country Macroeconomic Models: Some Preliminary Results
Discussant: FUMIO HAYASHI, University of Tokyo and NBER
4:00 PM
GAVIN CAMERON, Oxford University
The Sun Also Rises: Productivity Convergence between Japan and the USA
Discussant: ARI KOKKO, Stockholm School of Economics
5:00 PM
CHARLES HORIOKA, Osaka University
Are the Japanese Selfish or Altruistic?
5:30 PM
Adjourn


SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 15:

9:00 AM
MASAHARU HANAZAKI, Hitotsubashi University
AKIYOSHI HORIUCHI, University of Tokyo
Can the Financial Restraint Hypothesis Explain Japan's Postwar Experience?
Discussant: JENNIFER CORBETT, Oxford University
10:30 AM
HEATHER MONTGOMERY, The Asian Development Bank Institute
The Effect of the Basel Accord on Bank Portfolios in Japan
Discussant: TBA
12:00 PM
TAKATOSHI ITO, Hitotsubashi University and NBER
KIMIE HARADA, Daito Bunka University
Japan Premium and Stock Prices: Two Mirrors of Japanese Banking Crises
Discussant: KENJI WADA, Keio University
1:00 PM
Adjourn

CIRJE-TCER Conference on Economic Theory

  • (joint with Macroworkshop and Microworkshop)
  • Organizers:
    Fumio Hayashi (CIRJE) and Michihiro Kandori (University of Tokyo)
  • July 24(Tue.), 2001
  • at the audiovisual room on the 5th floor of Economics Building, University of Tokyo

CIRJE invited leading scholars to discuss the latest developments in economic theory for a wide range of pressing real world issues: financial markets and bubbles, capital accumulation and development, liquidity and macroeconomic fluctuations, and the conduct of monetary policy.


PROGRAM

Time Presenter Title
10:30-12:00 Dilip Abreu
(Princeton University)		 "Bubbles and Crashes" (with Markus Brunnermeier)
Abstract: We present a model in which an asset bubble can persist despite the presence of rational arbitrageurs. The resilience of the bubble stems from the inability of arbitrageurs to temporarily coordinate their selling strategies. This synchronization problem together with the individual incentive to time the market results in the persistence of bubbles over a substantial period of time. The model provides a natural setting in which public events, by enabling synchronization, can have a disproportionate impact relative to their intrinsic informational content.
13:20-14:50 Rafael Rob
(University of Penn.)		 "Vintage Capital, Distortions and Development" (joint with Samuel de Abreu Pessoa)
15:00-16:30 Nobuhiro Kiyotaki
(LSE)		 "Liquidity, Asset Price, and Monetary Policy" (joint with John Moore)
16:50-18:30 Michael Woodford
(Princeton Univ.)		 "A Neo-Wicksellian Framework for the Analysis of Monetary Policy"

International Conference: Asian Crisis III: The Crisis and the Recovery
(CIRJE/City University of Hong Kong/University of Washington)

  • (Sponsored by: Japanese Government Ministry of Education Aid for Science Research on Priority Area (B),
    CIRJE, City University of Hong Kong and University of Washington)
  • Organizers:
    Shin-ichi Fukuda (University of Tokyo)
    Kar-yiu Wong (University of Washington),
    Richard Y. K. Ho (City University of Hong Kong)
    Eiji Ogawa (Hitotsubashi University)
  • July 17(Tue.)-18(Wed.), 2001
  • Sanjo Conference Hall, University of Tokyo

The purpose of this conference was to discuss what happened in East Asian countries before and after the crisis. Since the Asian financial crisis, several alternative views have emerged in explaining the sources of the crisis. The conference attempted to examine how policy implications suggested by these alternative views are justifiable and what will be appropriate policy prescriptions for the true recovery of the East Asian countries. The conference invited a large number of notable scholars from all over the world. The discussions were fruitful and the conference was successful.


PROGRAM
July 17, Tuesday

9:45 - 10:00 am Welcome Session
Kar-yiu Wong, University of Washington
Shin-ichi Fukuda, University of Tokyo
10:00 - 11:30 am Session I: Features of the Crisis
Chair: Kar-yiu Wong, University of Washington

Anil Deolalikar, University of Washington
"What Really Happens to Wage Rates During Financial Crises? The Case of Thailand"
(with Jere R. Behrman, University of Pennsylvania, and Pranee Tinakorn, Thailand Deveolpment Research Institute Foundation)
Discussant: Akira Kohsaka, Osaka University

Fukunari Kimura, Keio University,
"Why Did the Crisis Accelerate Liberalization?: Consequences of Hosting FDI by the ASEAN Member Countries"
Discussant: Henry Wan, Cornell University

Xiang Lin, Sodertorn U College, and Dieter M. Urban, Universita' Bocconni
"Financial Crises in an Economy with High Savings"
(with Pehr-Johan Norback, Research Institute of Industrial Economics)
Discussant: Robert Dekle, University of Southern California
11:45 - 12:15 pm Chair: Shin-ichi Fukudam, University of Tokyo
Takatoshi Ito, Hitotsubashi University and NBER
"Regional Cooperation in Asia: Recent Developments"
1:30 - 3:00 pm Session II: Cross-Country Studies
Chair: Takatoshi Ito, Hitotsubashi University and NBER

Shumpei Takemori and Kenji Wada, Keio University
"Will Japan Lag Behind Korea? A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of A Transition to New Economy"
Discussant: Tokuo Iwaisako, Hitotsubashi University

Fred Y. K. Kwan, City University of Hong Kong
"Is the Asian Crisis Anticipatory? Evidence from Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, and Thailand"
(with Ka-fu Wong, Chinese University of Hong Kong)
Discussant: Yuri Sasaki, Meijigakuin University

Taimur Baig, International Monetary Fund
"Characterizing Post-crisis Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asian Economies"
Discussant: David G. Dickinson, University of Birmingham
3:15 - 3:45 pm Chair: Tatsuyoshi Miyakoshi, Niigata University
Henry Wan, Cornell University
"The Three Faces of The 1997 Crisis: The Lessons to Learn"
(with Jakrapong Uchupalanun, Thailand Development Research Institute)
3:50 - 5:20 pm Session III: Macroeconomic Shocks and Monetary Systems
Chair: Juro Teranishi, Hitotsubashi University

Marcus Miller, University of Warwick
"Bankruptcy Protection against Macroeconomic Shocks: The Case for a 'Super Chapter 11'"
(with Joseph Stiglitz, World Bank)
Discussant: Makoto Yano, Keio University

Eiji Ogawa, Hitoshubashi University, "The US Dollar in the International Monetary System after the Asian Crisis"
Discussant: Marie-Aimee Tourres, Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS-Malaysia)

Yong Cao, Nanyang Technological University
"The Impact of the Mean Change and Volatility of Exchange Rate on the Investment in the Open Economy with Dominating FDI:
Its implication to the Asian Financial Crisis"
Discussant: Hiroshi Fujiki, Bank of Japan


July 18, Wednesday

9:45 - 11:15 am Session V: Recovery of the Asian Economies and Bank Regulations
Chair: Koichi Hamada, Cabinet Office, Japanese Government

Robert Dekle, University of Southern California
"Domestic Bank Regulation and Financial Crises: Theory and Empirical Evidence from East Asia"
(with Kenneth Kletzer, University of California, Santa Cruz)
Discussant: Hiroshi Shibuya, Otaru University of Commerce

Nan-kuang Chen, National Taiwan University
"Collateral Damage and Economic Recovery"
(with Charles Leung, Chinese University of Hong Kong)
Discussant: Kazuo Yokokawa, Tohoku University

Sweta Saxena, Pittsburgh University
"Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis?"
(with Valerie Cerra, International Monetary Fund)
Discussant: Munehisa Kasuya, Bank of Japan
11:30 - 12:00 pm Chair: R. Anton Braun, University of Tokyo

Lawrence Lau, Stanford University
"Lessons from the East Asian Currency Crisis and Recovery"
1:15 - 2:45 pm Session VI: Policy Analysis and Recommendations
Chair: Masahiro Kawai, University of Tokyo

Naoyuki Yoshino, Keio University
"Optimal Exchange rate System---Its Theoretical and Empirical Investigation"
(with S. Kaji and A. Suzuki, Keio University)
Discussant: Hideki Izawa, Kobe University

Juntip Boonprakaikawe and S. Ghosal, University of Warwick
"Bank Runs and Noisy Signals"
Discussant: Kerk Phillips, Brigham Young University

Sayuri Shirai, Keio University
"Designing a Financial Market Structure in a Post-Crisis Asia"
(with Masaru Yoshitomi, ADB Institute)
Discussant: Jeff Chien-fu Lin, National Taiwan University
3:00 - 4:30 pm Session VII: Further Analysis of the Financial Markets
Chair: Naoyuki Yoshino, Keio University

Masahiro Kawai, University of Tokyo
"Determinants of International Commercial Bank Loans to Developing Countries"
(with Li-Gang Liu, ADB Institute)
Discussant: Kunio Saito, International Monetary Fund

Idanna Kaplan-Appio, Federal Reserve Board of New York
"Estimating the Value of Implicit Government Guarantees to Asian Banks"
Discussant: Dieter M. Urban, Universita' Bocconni

Etsuro Shioji, Yokohama National University
"Welfare Implications of the 1995-1998 Yen Depreciation on Asia"
Discussant: Sven Arndt, Claremont McKenna College